Taiwan - Chances of War with China this year?

Unlike you who doesn't know what constitutes racism - you are that puddle of piss. If you can't take it then report me you great thick lump.
When you have quite done kicking teddy bears on arrse,... goodnight.
 

goodoldboy

MIA
Book Reviewer
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Here's a recent picture taken from above Taiwan and across the straits 100 miles to Xiamen in China. Some of the smaller islands which China are keen to liberate can also been seen.
 
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Here's a recent picture taken from above Taiwan and across the straits 100 miles to Xiamen in China. Some of the smaller islands which China are keen to liberate can also been seen.
That looks like it's from Kinmen/Jinmen, which is part of the RoC/Free Area but not actually Taiwan Island.

During the Cold War, the two sides used to put up huge propaganda signs aimed at each others' populations - the ROC ones are still there, quite prominently so.

Another piece of historical trivia is that Kinmen was subjected to heavy artillery bombardment, which in the latter stages devolved into farce as one of those typically-Chinese accommodations was reached between the two sides:.

The PRC side obviously had to keep up the bombardment otherwise there would be no point and the whole thing would become ridiculous. On the other hand, there was a harvest to be brought in and the sorghum crop was quite important in the manufacture of the local hooch, baijiu/kaoliang.

So, to keep everyone happy, the PLA artillery used to bombard just after dawn and just before dusk each day, aiming at the shoreline only. Just to make sure nobody was hurt, they took the fuses off their shells.

Today, there's a thriving local industry in salvaging the shells and turning them into knives, scissors and other household implements - swords into ploughshares, as it were. They've become essential souvenirs for any tourist to the island.
 
This is becoming a little bit of a circular argument cum debate, focussing around an invading ground force as if the subject matter will be a glorified version of 1982. Nothing particularly wrong with using historical facts but surely, the focus must now switch to the most modern attack weapons and defensive measures?

If the aim of the thread is to decide if the Chinese will succeed in an attack on Taiwan then it must move on from the idea of thousands of lightly armed Chinese infantrymen swarming up Taiwan's western beaches only to be wiped out in droves after 50 metres.

If China really are determined to 'reunite' the (mainly) Han people of Taiwan with their mainland first cousins by an act of invasion or declaration of war, it won't be along the lines of rifleman avoiding specified killing fields after a 'feet on the ground' attack. Are the Taiwanese forces really going to stand passively as Chinese tanks disembark from logistics ships and make their way slowly up the beaches?

Let me throw in a few examples of what the Chinese may use, based on what they have in their arsenal:

biological agents - including spores and gas - against people and meat animals, they may only subdue but could kill if required;

defoliants against green crops (rice, maize, barley, fodder etc);

liquid poisons in watercourses and reservoirs all delivered by long range missiles from the mainland or from under the ocean, maybe to kill but more likely to cause short term illness in humans;

they may use non-nuclear Electro Magnetic Pulse devices against vital communications, railways and logistic centres, coming in from the mainland via precision ground launched missiles;

if they had to they could use barometric (fuel / air explosives) against power stations and government buildings (which will kill people).

I could go on but you get the idea. If China really does want to reunite they won't do it by killing the population of Taiwan - what would be the point of that? Similarly, they won't plan to have hundreds of thousands of their land or airborne troops laying dead on the plains on Taiwan. As for some sort of siege, absolute nonsense.

The idea of China intimidating Taiwan by overflying sensitive areas or by sending warships and submarines near to their coasts won't bother the Taiwanese overly. If they want to have a successful takeover of Taiwan, China will not be throwing around tactical nuclear weapons or even precision guided conventional munitions. Whatever they do it will be done with stealth. Chinese blokes on the ground digging trenches and foxholes? Definitely not.

Never mind any treaties or agreements that may or may not be in place, China is unlikely to attack Taiwan via conventional warfare. With all the US bases in Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Guam, plus the fact that nearby Okinawa is practically a floating US base, does anyone really think that the Yanks and their Far Eastern allies would stand by and do nothing?

So there we are, something to consider...
I think the use of Gas is very likely on the islands, other than the main island. No doubt they're will be swept by heavy fire in support of seaborne landings and every structure on those islands will be flattened as an example and warning to the main island government and is sufficiently remote that the PLA have some deniability they've used naughty weapons.

The main Island; the Taiwanese have exactly 8 mobile brigades and would have to split them and retain half to protect the populated north. The PLA could likely with airborne forces alone, create a small self contained liberated zone in the south of the island and as you say SF units creating chaos elsewhere across the island.... My point of the siege was simple military logic, that it would take the chinese time to occupy the other islands and time to sweep taiwanese forces covering the straights, so a seaborne landing on d+5 and then a slow build up of logistics and a corp sized force over months, with a naval blockade in force to try and starve out the Taiwanese. I reckon six months before the PLAN can free up shipping for a significant secondary landing to support a breakout and so the taiwanese political situation at that point will be the decisive point.

As for the Americans its the wildcard, but I do believe China needs at least 6 months to build up its forces and another two months campaign to secure the main island.
 
I think the use of Gas is very likely on the islands, other than the main island. No doubt they're will be swept by heavy fire in support of seaborne landings and every structure on those islands will be flattened as an example and warning to the main island government and is sufficiently remote that the PLA have some deniability they've used naughty weapons.

The main Island; the Taiwanese have exactly 8 mobile brigades and would have to split them and retain half to protect the populated north. The PLA could likely with airborne forces alone, create a small self contained liberated zone in the south of the island and as you say SF units creating chaos elsewhere across the island.... My point of the siege was simple military logic, that it would take the chinese time to occupy the other islands and time to sweep taiwanese forces covering the straights, so a seaborne landing on d+5 and then a slow build up of logistics and a corp sized force over months, with a naval blockade in force to try and starve out the Taiwanese. I reckon six months before the PLAN can free up shipping for a significant secondary landing to support a breakout and so the taiwanese political situation at that point will be the decisive point.

As for the Americans its the wildcard, but I do believe China needs at least 6 months to build up its forces and another two months campaign to secure the main island.
You don't think an airborne armada of paras might just be shot out of the sky 3 seconds after it passed the mainland coastline?
 
You don't think an airborne armada of paras might just be shot out of the sky 3 seconds after it passed the mainland coastline?
Its a good point and one assumes some amount of preparation is necessary to degrade the taiwanese air defences and my point again, is the chinese can't win a coup d'main operation and this is proper old fashioned warfare requiring time and from first shot fired to the last could be anywhere from 8 months to a year.
 
Its a good point and one assumes some amount of preparation is necessary to degrade the taiwanese air defences and my point again, is the chinese can't win a coup d'main operation and this is proper old fashioned warfare requiring time and from first shot fired to the last could be anywhere from 8 months to a year.
Rubbish. Modern wars are won in hours, not months.
If the PLA don't believe they can succeed in a day, they ain't going anywhere.
 
It was neither, both of which are only in your fevered mind. Is it because you're an ex Copper that you had to mention racism?

Crass stupidity? Am I the one whole ten minutes creating a decorative sentence?

No one only you thinks that the UK will be in a scrap in the Far East in the foreseeable future.

Touched a nerve have I? Why is that? Because you are utterly wrong. Give your head a wobble a go back to bed you silly man.

Finally, no, I don't 'get it' based on your statement and probably never will...
Then why is your Navy prancing about in the Pacific??

 
Does China want the people of Taiwan, the land and resources, or both?
Deciding which option leads to different methods of achieving success.

The land and resources.
The CCP does not give a fig about the people of Taiwan - and can easily repopulate it with good communists once the plague has receded.

It will be a biological attack.
Deniable - like Covid.
 
Rubbish. Modern wars are won in hours, not months.
If the PLA don't believe they can succeed in a day, they ain't going anywhere.
Hours, eh..... The Falklands took 10 weeks, Urgent Fury against a couple of hundred half trained militia took 4 days, GW1 took six months to wrap up and GW2 against a weaker enemy still took three weeks and that was with the American Juggernaut on point. You are flat out wrong and have watched too much telly.

I think an amphibious campaign and slower logistics, will mean whatever the PLA plan is. It will require a regular cycle of resupply with build up of ammunition, ordnance, armour and the accoutrements for a breakout in difficult terrain, which will slow down any advance to a crawl. Most importantly the degrading of the Taiwanese air defences and seaborne defences will take weeks, to root out large scale organized resistance and establish absolute control of the straights.

Of course, the PLA could use WMDs on the main island but that would sink its information campaign and that is critical.
 
The land and resources.
The CCP does not give a fig about the people of Taiwan - and can easily repopulate it with good communists once the plague has receded.

It will be a biological attack.
Deniable - like Covid.

The only value in Taiwan is the people, it's a tech center

A bit like Hong Kong will slowly lose it's attraction to the world as the talent moves away, they don't seem to like a harsh and repressive government, no tiger's jaw for them
 
The only value in Taiwan is the people, it's a tech center

A bit like Hong Kong will slowly lose it's attraction to the world as the talent moves away, they don't seem to like a harsh and repressive government, no tiger's jaw for them

Yes - it is a Tech centre.
I think the prime motivation is ideological however.
 

goodoldboy

MIA
Book Reviewer
I think the use of Gas is very likely on the islands, other than the main island. No doubt they're will be swept by heavy fire in support of seaborne landings and every structure on those islands will be flattened as an example and warning to the main island government and is sufficiently remote that the PLA have some deniability they've used naughty weapons.

The main Island; the Taiwanese have exactly 8 mobile brigades and would have to split them and retain half to protect the populated north. The PLA could likely with airborne forces alone, create a small self contained liberated zone in the south of the island and as you say SF units creating chaos elsewhere across the island.... My point of the siege was simple military logic, that it would take the chinese time to occupy the other islands and time to sweep taiwanese forces covering the straights, so a seaborne landing on d+5 and then a slow build up of logistics and a corp sized force over months, with a naval blockade in force to try and starve out the Taiwanese. I reckon six months before the PLAN can free up shipping for a significant secondary landing to support a breakout and so the taiwanese political situation at that point will be the decisive point.

As for the Americans its the wildcard, but I do believe China needs at least 6 months to build up its forces and another two months campaign to secure the main island.
Not quite - I didn't mention Special Forces or any boots landed on the ground.

Everything I mentioned as a possibility would be delivered by the Chinese via stealth missile or high level drone, maybe from outside the Earth's atmosphere.
 

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