Taiwan - Chances of War with China this year?

It seems China is feeling emboldened now that it's messed up the world with it's Covid virus (with barely any consequences), how it's acted in Hong Kong, the way it's been treating the Uighurs, making man made islands, threatening Australia etc.

Now it's getting a bit uppity with Taiwan and has been constantly invading their airspace and threatening them:


What do you think the chances of China invading Taiwan, knowing that USA is being run by someone with mashed potatoes where their brain should be? China are probably not worried about any consequences if they did invade, they know the EU are toothless and the UN are useless and there's nobody really willing to stand up to them.
 

W21A

LE
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The US continues to conduct Freedom of Navigation exercises both surface and air in the South China Sea. There is a NATO CSG on a circumnavigation navigation exercise which will conduct a FoN in the SCS. China will make noise and outrage.
 
Any minute now the PLA head of Propaganda - Colonel Chan aka @smartascarrots or his deputy Lt Col Wong aka '@gajin will be along to tell you that you are an alarmist and that the peace loving leadership of the PLA harbour no aggressive intentions towards Taiwan, no siree, just peaceful reunification.
 
The US continues to conduct Freedom of Navigation exercises both surface and air in the South China Sea. There is a NATO CSG on a circumnavigation navigation exercise which will conduct a FoN in the SCS. China will make noise and outrage.
China doesn't own the South China Sea, so it can be as outraged as it wants. The majority of that sea comes under Japanese control.
 

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There are only 18 beaches on Taiwan suitable for amphibious landings, rather unsurprisingly, the Taiwanese have massively defended them in depth.
 
Any minute now the PLA head of Propaganda - Colonel Chan aka @smartascarrots or his deputy Lt Col Wong aka '@gajin will be along to tell you that you are an alarmist and that the peace loving leadership of the PLA harbour no aggressive intentions towards Taiwan, no siree, just peaceful reunification.
It's possible not to be a penis some of the time, you know.
 
TBH, given that the entire civilised world seems be undergoing a quiet coup by a transnational neo-Marxist billionaire boys' club, under the premise of emergency measures due to a global (Chinese) pandemic, nothing would surprise me. In fact, I reckon the PRC will have a full-blown pop sooner rather than later. If I was Xing, I'd do it tomorrow. As for the CSG? Play acting. Every ****** is in bed with Beijing... including us. If I'm wrong, then I hope the PoW doesn't end up like its predecessor - at the bottom of oggin courtesy of slanty-eyed foreigners who don't subscribe to Wisden.
 
There are only 18 beaches on Taiwan suitable for amphibious landings, rather unsurprisingly, the Taiwanese have massively defended them in depth.
Fewer than that, given the extend of urban expansion over the last 2 decades. Even then, getting forces ashore is only the start of the battle - they have to be able to go somewhere of any use, and the interior beyond the beaches is really shitty country to fight in.
 
Its just that the PRC can do no wrong in your eyes.
Your reading comprehension needs work. That's easily disproved by a simple search of my posts on Tibet and Taiwan, amongst other topics.

There's a world of difference between criticism and unthinking condemnation, especially where double standards or lack of knowledge are involved.

You penis.
 
Your reading comprehension needs work. That's easily disproved by a simple search of my posts on Tibet and Taiwan, amongst other topics.

There's a world of difference between criticism and unthinking condemnation, especially where double standards or lack of knowledge are involved.

You penis.
Don’t throw your chopsticks out of the pram!
 
There is no legal basis for anybody's ADIZ. These are areas of international air space (or in Taiwan's case, someone else's sovereign territory going by their map) which a few countries (with the US being the first) claim to have some control over without any legal basis for that claim.

Here's a map showing another incident about a year ago from a Taiwanese source. The map itself was supplied by Taiwan's defence ministry. Note how far Taiwan's claimed ADIZ extends.
Chinese warplanes violated Taiwan's ADIZ 40 times in 2 days

1599786321-5f5acd51e4b93.jpg

Typically what happens is the US sends its navy on a "freedom of navigation exercise" off the Chinese coast or elsewhere in the area.

The Chinese air force then sends some planes out in reaction. These tend to be one or more ASW aircraft and one or more other types such as AWACS, or electronic surveillance.

The aircraft fly around the northern or southern end of Taiwan to get wherever they are going. The Taiwanese then make a big protest over these planes flying through international air space.

The foreign press, ever eager to publish anything which can be spun as showing the area as being on the brink of war, pick it up, but generally won't publish maps showing the extent of Taiwan's claimed ADIZ.

Taiwan's ADIZ (or anyone else's for that matter) has less legal foundation than China's 9 dash line. Nobody is under any legal obligation to pay any attention to anyone's claimed ADIZ except as a matter of maintaining good diplomatic relations, and there's not much concern about that when it comes to these two countries.
 

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Fewer than that, given the extend of urban expansion over the last 2 decades. Even then, getting forces ashore is only the start of the battle - they have to be able to go somewhere of any use, and the interior beyond the beaches is really shitty country to fight in.

I’d expect China to go after the Matsu, Qumoi and Pinghu islands to put political pressure on Taipei and test US resolve. Smaller, more digestible bites.
 
If China does decide to be naughty soon then it's the perfect opportunity for Vlad to make a more decisive move in Ukraine.

Who's going to stop him?

It's a bit like the 30s when Japan took China and the rest of the world couldn't be arsed to stop them after the horrors of WW1. Only this time people are fed up with the failures of Iraq/Afghanistan and no-one wants to risk nukes.
 
I’d expect China to go after the Matsu, Qumoi and Pinghu islands to put political pressure on Taipei and test US resolve. Smaller, more digestible bites.
Militarily easier, perhaps, but would achieve nothing beyond making their main aim harder to achieve.

There have been plenty of other occasions they could have taken those bites - when they were already at war with the US in Korea, or when the US was bogged down in Vietnam, for example - but the ends didn't justify the means.
 
The foreign press, ever eager to publish anything which can be spun as showing the area as being on the brink of war, pick it up, but generally won't publish maps showing the extent of Taiwan's claimed ADIZ.
The foreign press also seem a touch amnesiac over their own countries' official stances on Taiwan.

Imagine if e.g. the US were to have raised a fuss over RAF jets transiting a Londonderry ADIZ while simultaneously insisting that there was only one UK and the US wasn't interfering in UK affairs.
 

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Militarily easier, perhaps, but would achieve nothing beyond making their main aim harder to achieve.

There have been plenty of other occasions they could have taken those bites - when they were already at war with the US in Korea, or when the US was bogged down in Vietnam, for example - but the ends didn't justify the means.

in the past, the US had incontestable military superiorty over the PLA, now? not so much.
 
in the past, the US had incontestable military superiorty over the PLA, now? not so much.
But still the ability to hit precisely the types of targets that make amphibious ops possible.

The worst case for the PRC would be making a successful landing then having their supply line cut and their landing force compelled into an embarrassing surrender.
 

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