Syria

#5
Werewolf is gonna drop buckets of "instant sunshine" up Assad's hoop. Fear naught
 
#7
Open up Walmarts and 7Elevens....
 
#9
Journo ?
 
#10
'Events, dear boy, Events.'

Every so often a nation loses the plot and starts biting itself, or its neighbours. This time its Syria. It doesn't need 'democracy', because if it had that, the 70 % Sunnis would quickly vote all the Shia into shallow graves.

What it urgently needs is for the Russians to make up their mind- Do they want a loyal client state with all the stability of 1970 Saigon, or do they want a more stable and predictable region as a whole? Since Putin is an unreconstructed Cold Warrior, I expect they'll go for the former.

Meanwhile, our NATO partner Turkey has this mess unfolding on its doorstep. The level of their involvement may very well dictate the level of OUR involvement. Ain't alliances grand?
 
#11
Oh good we get to dust (literally) off the away kit rather soon, playing v Afghan in the 3rd strips been fun! I still want a good match in the home colours though, if only the Argies had a back bone.

Serious head on, I don't know enough about Syria's natural resources, but that should give you a clue of what, if anything is going to happen!
 
#12
Oh good we get to dust (literally) off the away kit rather soon, playing v Afghan in the 3rd strips been fun! I still want a good match in the home colours though, if only the Argies had a back bone.

Serious head on, I don't know enough about Syria's natural resources, but that should give you a clue of what, if anything is going to happen!
Economically, not much to write home about, even before the sanctions. It's basically a Arab-Soviet Family kleptocracy. It's basically agricultural, but had some bad droughts that have wrecked the Eastern provinces.

What's much more important is its border position between the Sunni and Shia blocs. At the moment, it gives Iran a voice in the Med. Topple Syria, and the Hezbollah puppets running Lebanon will find their supply lines through Iraq to Iran cut.

If the Sunnis take over, it'll be a fight between the non-Arab Turks and the Wahhabi nutjobs from Saudi as to who runs it. The Arabs don't want to see a resurgent Ottoman empire, and the rest of the world doesn't really want to see the Saudi theocrats getting ideas in this theatre either.
 
#13
Having beaten a very sad and rather undignified retreat from Damascus a little over a year ago, it would be quite nice to go back and give the local leather jacket wearers a good kicking.
 
#15
Leave well alone, nothing in Syria is any of our business, I believe the French actually used the place after WW1 so let them go and sort things out..............if they are minded too, and somehow I think they just might.
 
#16
my twopenny worth.

end of 1973 war between syria and israel. road to damascus wide open, israelis lobbing artillery into damascus, its air force going through sound barrier over assad's (senior) palace breaking every single window. but they didn't walk in. why? because the war between israel and syria is, as far as the israelis are concerned, a border dispute and not about regime change. (similarly with egypt and jordan). the israelis tell me the 1949 cease fire line is as arbitrary as the line between the french mandate of syria and british mandate of palestine drawn in 1923 i think. the present cease fire line is closer to the 1923 line.
border dispute not regime change.

from what we know of iranian insurgency into iraq (revolutionary business-men) the MO in syria bears striking resemblences. unlike saddam gassing the kurds, about 5000 dead in a day, or assad senior sending the tanks in, again 5000 dead in a day. murderers of 50 a day with ak-47 seems much more the iranian MO, (religion of peace at work scenarios).

iran faces horendous sanctions. the saudis have increased oil production as have the kurds. iranian currency is worthless. but somewhat like north korea, they steam on trying to make nuclear weapons.

they are active in syria. they have been helping both hezbollah in lebanon and hamas in gaza.

russia supports syria. as has been russian foreign policy since tsarist days, its large neighbours are to be destabilized and weakened. it is apparent with poland of the history we know. the pact between the ussr and nazi germany. the red army sitting on the east bank of the vistula opposite warsaw, whilst the polish home army, and the jewish ghetto fighters, were destroyed in revolt on the west bank of the vistula. they wanted as weak a poland as possible, always have, always will.

similarly turkey, a nato member, sits to the south. syria serves to help contain turkey for them. thus it has a strategic concern there, exemplified by the russian naval base in latakia opposite cyprus, and the british bases there.

china, russia's other great neighbour is tagging along. it seems that russian policy hasn't changed much since the realities of the days of alexander nevski.

this will not happen. but similar to the cuban crisis, i feel certain that russia would remove support for syria (and influence china) in return for the removal of certain missiles and certain other demilitarisations in and of turkey.

however if the assad regime should fall, (remember israel does not want regime change) and an iranian proxy be the power in syria, the israelis might be forced to act. and then maybe the 6th. fleet, and some marines want payback, and then the russians and before you know it...ka-boom
 
#17
Syria is the only significant crude oil producing country in the Eastern Mediterranean region, which includes Jordan, Lebanon, Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza. According to the Oil and Gas Journal, Syria had 2,500,000,000 barrels (400,000,000 m3) of petroleum reserves as of January 1, 2010

Thanks Wiki.
 
G

goatrutar

Guest
#18
Syria is the only significant crude oil producing country in the Eastern Mediterranean region, which includes Jordan, Lebanon, Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza. According to the Oil and Gas Journal, Syria had 2,500,000,000 barrels (400,000,000 m3) of petroleum reserves as of January 1, 2010

Thanks Wiki.
And there's the motivation to jump in then.
 
#19
Why help the Syrians ?

Not so long ago they were dancing in the streets burning UK and American flags.

A few phrases spring to mind

Change must come from within

It's the will of Allah
 

udipur

LE
Book Reviewer
#20
Syria is the only significant crude oil producing country in the Eastern Mediterranean region, which includes Jordan, Lebanon, Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza. According to the Oil and Gas Journal, Syria had 2,500,000,000 barrels (400,000,000 m3) of petroleum reserves as of January 1, 2010

Thanks Wiki.
Crude? Reminds me of Gerald but that's not why I'm posting.

Who counts the reserves? Why, the inhabitants, you see.

Now who's going to trust them...?
 

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