Syria

There's a lot of hyperbole to reporting of the Syrian Civil War. Behind that, it can't be denied that Russia and Turkey are fighting. It is seen as a proxy war, but direct conflict is there, and the chances of something escalating increase day by day, at the moment:


(A report of an RuAF airstrike which seems to have caused heavy Turkish casualties. This is so heavily reported from Turkish, Jihadi and Syrian sources that it seems to be correct).


Turkish troops sheltering from airstrikes.


Erdogan is reported to be meeting atm with security officials to discuss next steps.

The last 24 hours have seen Turkey and Turkish-backed Jihadis take back some Idlibi territory recently captured by the SAA.
 
Huge IF true (usual caveats apply) :


Turkish parliament to declare war on Syria tomorrow.

Speech by Erdoğan imminent.

Also, Turkey has reportedly abandoned attempts to stop Syrian refugees leaving Turkey for Europe (according to Reuters).
 
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Deserter

On ROPS
On ROPs
We could wake up to a major war tomorrow.
 
We could wake up to a major war tomorrow.
Turkey (a NATO member) went seriously off message in so many ways, including getting into bed with Russia (very much a non-NATO member). It seem as though that relationship has gone badly sour and that Turkey will now look to its former lover (NATO) to help seek vengeance.
 
We could wake up to a major war tomorrow.
For the last week, there has been war, de facto, between Syria and Turkey. Turkish accounts of Syrian army losses in that period show a steady attrition of manpower, armour, AFV, artillery, etc.
Russia had to step in and send Turkey a message ('had' as in, felt compelled to, as opposed to 'was right') or the Syrian army would be pushed out of the areas where the Turks were operating.
The question now is, does Russia stand by Syria? I think that's a yes. If yes, what does Erdoğan do?

Edit: (from Reddit SCW board) - translation of RuMOD comment re. yesterday's events):

'On 27th of February terrorists within Idlib deescalation zone attempted a massive attack on SAA positions

Turkish military was among them when they were hit by Syrian military

According to Turkish data [presumably one shared with Russian side - vallar57], there should have been no Turkish units in the area hit

Russian VKS was not used in the area where Tukish units were hit

After receiving reports of Turkish casualties, Russia implemented comprehensive measures to completely cease fire from SAA side'

Reddit's SCW board is an excellent source of info. It's here: https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/new
 
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The question now is, does Russia stand by Syria? I think that's a yes. If yes, what does Erdoğan do?
Same as the last time when ‘the West’ didn’t do what he wanted after the TrAF F16 shot down the Su24. Switch fire and cosy up to Putin whilst thinking he has a say in what Assad, Putin and Khamenei do in Syria. His rhetoric will assuage his voters.

If only there was a unanimous UNSC Resolution which sees a roadmap for peace in Syria. After all, once HTS is defeated and Turkey sends on another million refugees, what next? The Kurds?
 
Same as the last time when ‘the West’ didn’t do what he wanted after the TrAF F16 shot down the Su24. Switch fire and cosy up to Putin whilst thinking he has a say in what Assad, Putin and Khamenei do in Syria. His rhetoric will assuage his voters.

If only there was a unanimous UNSC Resolution which sees a roadmap for peace in Syria. After all, once HTS is defeated and Turkey sends on another million refugees, what next? The Kurds?
I think (sadly) that ship has long-sailed.
There is a chance of a war between significant powers breaking out by mistake.
(Also sadly) I think the war needs to be ended by someone winning it, with all that entails.
 
I think (sadly) that ship has long-sailed.
There is a chance of a war between significant powers breaking out by mistake.
That depends on the media you read tbh.
(Also sadly) I think the war needs to be ended by someone winning it, with all that entails.
Define ‘winning’ as he’s said he’s won in the past and the millions of displaced outside Syria who don’t want to return and he doesn’t want will continue to build resentment. You only need to look to Syria’s SW to see how that has gone on for over 70 years.
 
I think (sadly) that ship has long-sailed.
There is a chance of a war between significant powers breaking out by mistake.
(Also sadly) I think the war needs to be ended by someone winning it, with all that entails.
I would not be surprised to see Turkey forcibly repatriate many of their current refugee population back to Syria once the civil war is effectively over.

I should also point out by the way that many of the "Syrian refugees" are not actually Syrians. Many of them are from places such as Iraq, Yemen, or elsewhere in the Middle East, and also as far afield as Pakistan and Afghanistan. When Canada was resettling large numbers of Syrian refugees in Canada it required conducting a major effort to interview each refugee to separate the genuine Syrians from the large numbers of people claiming to be Syrians but who weren't, most of whom were actually economic migrants looking for a way into the West.

The above is particularly relevant, as I would not be surprised if when the Turks were to forcibly repatriate Syrian refugees they were to not make much effort to distinguish between the two groups but to just dump them all unceremoniously in Syria. The large numbers of non-Syrians would likely be particularly not pleased with this outcome, and so try to make a rush for the border with the EU.

It's hard to make predictions on this, but it's a scenario to think about.
 
I would not be surprised to see Turkey forcibly repatriate many of their current refugee population back to Syria once the civil war is effectively over.

I should also point out by the way that many of the "Syrian refugees" are not actually Syrians. Many of them are from places such as Iraq, Yemen, or elsewhere in the Middle East, and also as far afield as Pakistan and Afghanistan. When Canada was resettling large numbers of Syrian refugees in Canada it required conducting a major effort to interview each refugee to separate the genuine Syrians from the large numbers of people claiming to be Syrians but who weren't, most of whom were actually economic migrants looking for a way into the West.

The above is particularly relevant, as I would not be surprised if when the Turks were to forcibly repatriate Syrian refugees they were to not make much effort to distinguish between the two groups but to just dump them all unceremoniously in Syria. The large numbers of non-Syrians would likely be particularly not pleased with this outcome, and so try to make a rush for the border with the EU.

It's hard to make predictions on this, but it's a scenario to think about.
I didn't know about the diverse nature of 'Syrian' refugees. Given Erdoğan's border decision, we could be about to become more familiar with the issue, again. At the time of the previous 'wave' of refugees, entrants to the UK didn't appear to be subject to stringent checks.
I agree that Erdoğan wants rid of the issue. As to his method (risking direct war with Russia, which has at least now to be a possibility), I can't see what he achieved other than a buffer state, expensive to maintain, and a cause of ill-feeling between Syria, the Kurds, and Turkey, for decades to come.
And reflecting that this started in 2011...
 

Karamoja

Old-Salt
Surely Turkey has the military capability to go all the way depose Assad ? I can't see Russia putting in regular (conscripts?) Russian troops to stop him because I don't think the Russian public would put up with seeing young conscripts dying in droves again which happened in Chechnya. The only Russian combat soldiers there at the moment seem to be Russian mercenaries.
 
Turkey (a NATO member) went seriously off message in so many ways, including getting into bed with Russia (very much a non-NATO member). It seem as though that relationship has gone badly sour and that Turkey will now look to its former lover (NATO) to help seek vengeance.
And the old fascist should be told to F off at the high port.
 
When Canada was resettling large numbers of Syrian refugees in Canada it required conducting a major effort to interview each refugee to separate the genuine Syrians from the large numbers of people claiming to be Syrians but who weren't, most of whom were actually economic migrants looking for a way into the West.
I think Mutti found that out too. The problem is its hard to get rid of the ones who are not entitled. The whole thing is destabililising the whole of the EU with XRW gaining more support all the time. Its not going to end well.
 
The above is particularly relevant, as I would not be surprised if when the Turks were to forcibly repatriate Syrian refugees they were to not make much effort to distinguish between the two groups but to just dump them all unceremoniously in Syria
It seems like they are trying to just dump them in Europe not Syria.
 
'ere we go...
 
Just trying to work out why a T 72 , armed with (amongst other things) a bfo 125mm gun, is running scared from an APC armed with a 7.62 machine gun !

??!
Probably trying to get enough distance to use its gun - the APC doing the opposite, hugging the tank so that it can't........
 
Rigging APCs as SVBIEDs has been a tactic for a while, it is possible that the ACV15 driver had an initiation malfunction, but the tank driver didn't know that
 

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