Syria

Complete deviation and probably one for the Trump thread, but I'm wondering if Gabbard (Republican, military cred, excellent on her feet and a (comely) female) may end up being groomed as the successor to Trump. She will still only be in her early 40's if or when Trump completes his second term....
I really Like Tusli on International policy and it seems as she is now planning to standing as a non Dem (non Rep) Third Party candidate; given the hatred many on the left have for the Dem establishment (and even the right with Trumps lack of acheivement with his campaign promises), she could make a dent and illuminate a new path. Her deftr social media skills and endorsement of social media majors like Joe Rogan and Fox stalwarts like Tucker Carlson give her real traction. She and others like her yet to emerge are the future of US politics, the geriatric Dem /Rep cabal will soon be swept away, The Donald is simply a symptom of their demise. She can run in 2020, 2024, 2028, 2032 and on, in 2020 though look for a Tulsi Wand Ticket, Andrew Wang is the only perosn talking aboyt the major changes ref work (automation) coming down the pipe if we like it or not.

Tulsi is an accomplished surfer and you don't get more 'merican than that.

Check out her work out training vids inc with an MMA star ;)
 

Goatman

ADC
Book Reviewer
For Sama: raising a baby in a warzone


#ForSama


If nothing else, the CH4 Film by Waad Al-Kateab brings the human face of the Syrian conflict into your front room.


Whatever your view of the Syrian conflict, take time to watch the film.
 
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When is the report due to be published?
No idea, hence speculation why Wikileaks et al are pushing the ‘placed’ rather than ‘dropped’ angle and already disputing the make up of the Cttee
 
Is that why the gong says ‘none A5’?

Source? Last I heard the U.K. was involved nearly as quickly as the US
Source; this is my era (persec) and I was on the ground, UK's involvement was warmly accepted, in fact requested as was Oz, CAN, NZ, Euro baggage (NATO) not so, who the hell needs that 'command structure' and nonsensical ROE (did Berlin ever allow the Germans to get of base and patrol or was that role subcontracted to Dostum just as the Soviets did?). Call it an early phase 'coalition of the willing', to be perfected in Iraq 2. Plenty of material available in DC sources to back me up on this.

It became immediately apparent in situ that the people in control in DC wanted to maximise full spectrum control on their terms, the 'war by committee' i.e. Cold War non War was not going to apply to this or anything else moving forward.

Immediately after fall of Kabul, when the entire Country was up for grabs, there were direct orders to prevent the effective pursuit of the principle target holed up in Tora Bora, in effect leading elements in Washington didn't want to catch the architect and close the opportunity. The Northern Alliance Forces were game despite the loss of Ahmad Shah Massoud (may Allah bless and rest his bones), the Talib were freaked out and almost 80% for hire (an unusually high percentage for Pashtun but then the Saudis and ISI were shitting themselves having realised the full import of their handiwork and the character US administration in charge: Cheney, Rumsfeld etc.)

And thus the Forever War was launched.

As in N Syria, ‘East of the Euphrates’, the coalition is leaving as the US is. Reportedly they may stay near the oilfields to stop IS regaining them and in and around al Tanf to prevent Iranian supplies to Hezbollah and the IS components ‘west of the Euphrates’ using the area to reconsolidate.
The oil fields chatter is all over, reinforced by the tweet the Donald gave, which runs in direct contradiction to his frankly excellent speech a couple of days ago. However with all things Whitehouse these days it has to be examined in terms of his real conflict, which is with the US IC & Pentagon. With Trump I appreciate a consummate showman when I see one, I wait to see what he actually does not says. I think the oil occupation shtick is just dealmaking with the Russkies to keep the Iranian influence to a controlled level, while pacifying the crazed neo cons in DC for a week or so. It will damage his election chances so no.

I expect that the US will withdraw 100% from Syria in fact (not media profile) in the next five months, I also expect next year a ‘peace with honour’ deal with the Talib in Afghanistan allowing fast track US withdrawal, part brokered / underwritten by Qatar with the Donald using KSA as a very believable stick.

By Oct 2020 moving into the election, the US will be out of Syria and leaving if not left Afghanistan, also possibly Somalia / Yemen. Some bases moved from Germany / Italy into Poland and very possibly a real peace deal between North Korea / South Korea that allows substantial but controlled US commercial investment into N Korea to move it out of Beijing's orbit.

What times we live in.
 
Last I heard Gabbard was a Democrat and is seeking Presidential nomination for 2020:
Keep up to speed! this was all over DC / US feeds yesterday! The Dems plus MSBC, CNN, NBC are keeping her down, she has never been forgiven by the Dem establishment for backng Bernie and also utterly destroying their favorite candidate K Harris in the debate a short while back. K Harris is now barely getting any traction.

Check out the segment it is a hoot
 
Source; this is my era (persec) and I was on the ground, UK's involvement was warmly accepted, in fact requested as was Oz, CAN, NZ, Euro baggage (NATO) not so, who the hell needs that 'command structure' and nonsensical ROE (did Berlin ever allow the Germans to get of base and patrol or was that role subcontracted to Dostum just as the Soviets did?). Call it an early phase 'coalition of the willing', to be perfected in Iraq 2. Plenty of material available in DC sources to back me up on this.
Your point was that NATO were there because a NATO member was attacked. NATO took on the lead of ISAF in 2003 at the request of the Afghan govt. Nine UN Security Council Resolutions relate to ISAF, 1386, 1413, 1444, 1510, 1563, 1623, 1707, 1776 and 1833.

No sources provided.
It became immediately apparent in situ that the people in control in DC wanted to maximise full spectrum control on their terms, the 'war by committee' i.e. Cold War non War was not going to apply to this or anything else moving forward.

Immediately after fall of Kabul, when the entire Country was up for grabs, there were direct orders to prevent the effective pursuit of the principle target holed up in Tora Bora, in effect leading elements in Washington didn't want to catch the architect and close the opportunity.
Last I heard they asked UKSF to pull back so that the US would be the ones to capture/kill OBL. Not to prolong the war per se. But if you read some sources your speculation would be the idea. I’ve not seen anything credible yet though.
The Northern Alliance Forces were game despite the loss of Ahmad Shah Massoud (may Allah bless and rest his bones), the Talib were freaked out and almost 80% for hire (an unusually high percentage for Pashtun but then the Saudis and ISI were shitting themselves having realised the full import of their handiwork and the character US administration in charge: Cheney, Rumsfeld etc.)
There’s always been ‘guns for hire’ in that region. They change ‘sides’ at the drop of a hat and loaded chest of gold.
And thus the Forever War was launched.
The ‘forever war’ is complicated by numerous actors, not least by Russia supplying the Taliban now and Iran in the past. But then ‘mission creep’ from removing the Talib who gave succour to AQ was pretty much achieved. The ‘nation building’ thereafter then became ‘the mission’.
The oil fields chatter is all over, reinforced by the tweet the Donald gave, which runs in direct contradiction to his frankly excellent speech a couple of days ago. However with all things Whitehouse these days it has to be examined in terms of his real conflict, which is with the US IC & Pentagon. With Trump I appreciate a consummate showman when I see one, I wait to see what he actually does not says. I think the oil occupation shtick is just dealmaking with the Russkies to keep the Iranian influence to a controlled level, while pacifying the crazed neo cons in DC for a week or so. It will damage his election chances so no.
That’s one view. Another would be that the decision made in December which led to the resignation of Mattis has taken ten months to resolve. The US has pulled out of N Syria ‘east of the Euphrates’ but realise the vacuum left will allow IS to consolidate and take back the oilfields while Assad concentrates on Idlib and Russian MilPol try and assuage Erdogan’s rhetoric.
I expect that the US will withdraw 100% from Syria in fact (not media profile) in the next five months, I also expect next year a ‘peace with honour’ deal with the Talib in Afghanistan allowing fast track US withdrawal, part brokered / underwritten by Qatar with the Donald using KSA as a very believable stick.
That is likely as it is what Trump campaigned on. Whether that is the best COA is a separate matter
By Oct 2020 moving into the election, the US will be out of Syria and leaving if not left Afghanistan, also possibly Somalia / Yemen. Some bases moved from Germany / Italy into Poland
Again, this is what Trump campaigned on. It’s ‘likely’ but not ‘highly likely’ yet.
and very possibly a real peace deal between North Korea / South Korea that allows substantial but controlled US commercial investment into N Korea to move it out of Beijing's orbit.
Only if Tubby III stops lobbing ICBMs and discharging nukes. What ‘deal’ he gets is also dependent on those unanimous resolutions which apply to the DPRK. What does Trump give that persuades Tubby III to give up his ballistic missiles and WMDs in accordance with those Resolutions?
What times we live in.
Interesting times indeed. The vacuum left by the US will be hoovered up by Russia and China along with Iran.
 
Keep up to speed! this was all over DC / US feeds yesterday!
You mean things have changed since I posted?
The Dems plus MSBC, CNN, NBC are keeping her down, she has never been forgiven by the Dem establishment for backng Bernie and also utterly destroying their favorite candidate K Harris in the debate a short while back. K Harris is now barely getting any traction.

Check out the segment it is a hoot
Which segment?

10 hours ago she said she’s taking back the Democrat Party:
This is a movement to take back the Democratic Party from corrupt warmongers. They’re doing everything they can to get me to run as a 3rd-party candidate so they can retain control of our Party. But I won’t. I’ll continue to fight to make our party & country of, by, & for the ppl
 
'Huge if true' .


(reportedly, a US SF raid in Idlib which resulted in the death of Baghdadi)


I learned the above while thinking about @armchair_jihad 's post about, inter-alia, circumstances where a military might prolong a conflict it was capable of ending. Has the US known of Baghdadi's location(s) and killed him off at a politically highly expedient moment?

Edit: the location of the attack is very close (5km) to the Turkish border. IS isn't in Idlib so why did Baghdadi think it a good place to be? Was he under the eye/protection of Turkey?

Edit ii: it looks as if the attack was on Baghdadi's convoy and upon a house. There is footage on Twitter of the remains of the convoy (taken by locals).
 
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WoC1066

Clanker
'Huge if true' .


(reportedly, a US SF raid in Idlib which resulted in the death of Baghdadi)


I learned the above while thinking about @armchair_jihad 's post about, inter-alia, circumstances where a military might prolong a conflict it was capable of ending. Has the US known of Baghdadi's location(s) and killed him off at a politically highly expedient moment?

Edit: the location of the attack is very close (5km) to the Turkish border. IS isn't in Idlib so why did Baghdadi think it a good place to be? Was he under the eye/protection of Turkey?

Edit ii: it looks as if the attack was on Baghdadi's convoy and upon a house. There is footage on Twitter of the remains of the convoy (taken by locals).
I'm sure Jeremy Corbyn will be sending his sincerest condolences to those affected
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If true very good news.

The misery, terror, pain suffering and hundreds and thousands of deaths that have occurred as a direct result of this man’s actions are incalculable.

The fact that he may have died at his own hand suitably karmic. That it was as a result of US directed pressure perhaps some small vindication of their efforts to eradicate this poisonous and dystopian gathering of evil.
 
I'm sure Jeremy Corbyn will be sending his sincerest condolences to those affected
View attachment 425804
V true. We'll soon hear the 'Couldn't he have been taken prisoner?' stuff.
What I dont understand is how He could possibly become PM given his well documented sympathies and friends. Is there no security vetting for potential PMs,given the information they will be privy to? I can well imagine His PMs letter to the nuclear deterrent Captains for action after attack on the UK...'Immediately surface,run up white flag,and surrender to whom ever attacked us. Oh and bye the way, court martial Yourself for capitalist aggression intent'. :rolleyes:
 

Goatman

ADC
Book Reviewer
Back on thread.

Anyone know who the Commander of Frontal Aviation responsible for the Russian Air Force units stationed in Syria is currently ?

It is alleged that Russian aircraft, in support of Assad regime forces ,have bombed 54 hospitals in Idlib Province since 2018.



I'm guessing overall responsibility (Below Putin) is this guy:

Lieutenant General Andrey Yudin

1572181305119.png

SOURCE
Since May 2012 - Commander of the Air Force and Air Defense Command of the Southern Military District.

By decree of the President of the Russian Federation and Order of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation No. 389 dated 06/11/2014, Major-General Yudin Andrey Vyacheslavovich, commander of the forces of the Air Force and Air Defense Association of the Southern Military District, was awarded the next military rank as lieutenant general.

Since September 2015, he was appointed commander of the Air Force - Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Aerospace Forces.

(Trans from Russian by Google)


If it is true, as alleged, that Russian Air Force ac are deliberately targeting medical facilities in Syria, and the officer in command's name is known - then will an indictment from the International Court at the Hague be issued?

Both Milosevic and Mladic eventually faced jail time......

I am not sufficiently clued up on the letter of the Law of Armed Conflict to make an informed guess on this one - anyone?

Anyone who was in either Iraq or Afghanistan in the last ten years will know that the old crap about the locals 'relying on civilian medical infrastructure ' is just horse-sh1t....there was hardly anything left.

Let's hope General Yudin is already persona non grata in Britain, if not the EU.
 
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For Sama: raising a baby in a warzone


#ForSama


If nothing else, the CH4 Film by Waad Al-Kateab brings the human face of the Syrian conflict into your front room.


Whatever your view of the Syrian conflict, take time to watch the film.
A hard watch, but thoroughly unmissable.

I suspect a possible BAFTA and Oscar next year.
 

Goatman

ADC
Book Reviewer


The evidence dossier is being built right now.

'The Syrian and Russian governments know the exact coordinates of healthcare facilities - and have targeted them again and again. '

For those who have not yet seen the documentary referred to at the UN briefing above:

 
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Reports of SAA and Tr supported FSA clashing in N Syria 'east of the Euphrates. Assad's agitprop says it is Tr forces:
The state media gave no details but Turkish-backed rebels said similar, intermittent clashes had occurred in recent days with Syrian troops south of the town, which Turkey seized from Syrian Kurdish-led forces earlier this month.

The report underscores the risk that violence in northeast Syria could rekindle after Ankara and Moscow struck a deal a week ago in which Russia agreed to shift the YPG at least 30 km (18.64 miles) south of the border by late on Tuesday.
Map of the 'safe zone'


Erdogan says the YPG still haven't pulled back, despite Russian declarations they have. Who to believe.........:
In Ankara, President Tayyip Erdogan told lawmakers from his AK Party that Turkey has information the YPG has not completed its pull-out, despite assurances from Russia on Tuesday that they had left ahead of the deal’s deadline.

“Even though the information in our hands suggests this has not been succeeded in a full sense, we will give our response to them after our field assessments,” he said, adding Turkey reserved the right to return to military operations against the YPG in the area.
 
Reports of SAA and Tr supported FSA clashing in N Syria 'east of the Euphrates. Assad's agitprop says it is Tr forces:


Map of the 'safe zone'


Erdogan says the YPG still haven't pulled back, despite Russian declarations they have. Who to believe.........:
There is some fighting going on. Interesting question raised in one of these tweets:



There are some images of SAA POW in hands of pro-Turkish Jihadis. Not posted as they are being shamed.
 
And another :

If true, maybe they were told it was a ‘policing’ operation? Plus, getting your heavy weapons (depending of course on what their definition of heavy weapons is), isn’t always as easy as piling six blokes into a pick up and telling them to follow the one in front.

If they're talking ‘standard’ Spt Coy ‘heavy weapons’, such as HMG, GMG, SF MMG, AT weapons, Mortars etc. then it is surprising they aren’t part of the second or third load, along with resupp of food, water etc.

Dunno tbh, but maybe there’s a lot of ‘left hand/right hand’ going on?
 
If true, maybe they were told it was a ‘policing’ operation? Plus, getting your heavy weapons (depending of course on what their definition of heavy weapons is), isn’t always as easy as piling six blokes into a pick up and telling them to follow the one in front.

If they're talking ‘standard’ Spt Coy ‘heavy weapons’, such as HMG, GMG, SF MMG, AT weapons, Mortars etc. then it is surprising they aren’t part of the second or third load, along with resupp of food, water etc.

Dunno tbh, but maybe there’s a lot of ‘left hand/right hand’ going on?
A lot of the initial wave of SAA was, based on video, men in 4x4, Toyota mini vans, in the back of long - haul HGVs. The second wave had more armour, artillery, etc though older armour seemed more prevalent than new. However, the main fighting SAA is in Idlib. I think it was hoped that Russian pressure would halt Turkey and that isn't happening*. The SAA appears to be fighting against odds and this is credible, I think, because they don't like Turkey or the Turkish - backed Jihadis. And Turkey has invaded Syria, which is opposed by most Syrian, of all ethnicities. For example, Christian towns and villages are emptying ahead of the SNA advance. For Christians, the SNA might as well be IS as they will treat Christians the same way.
The Turks haven't a wide technological gap over the SAA in terms of what they have deployed. Some proper push back, with even a hint of RuAF help, could well halt the SNA.

*The Syrians, SDF are well miffed-off about this.
 
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