Syria

The original point was you jumping in with both feet about something written in a review about a book somebody else was reading.
There is nothing special here. The review was proposed by you and I found it interesting. There was one point that attracted my attention - the baseless claim that Assad regime cooperated with terrorists.
Despite everything else going on in the world, you rushed to defend Assad’s regime again.
Wrong. I don't defend Assad and my attitude to his regime is rather neutral. I defend 'fair play' principle. I'm strongly against unacceptable method to present allegations as proven facts - whoever, for whatever reasons does it.
I never wrote the review and his other articles and books appear to be well respected.
Correct. So, it would be fair from you just to agree that indeed accusations of Assad in cooperation with terrorists are no more than baseless allegations. Btw, as I understand Reuters never published any article that supports this claim.
Again with Reuters. You’ve had a sad on about them since they quoted Bellingcat on MH17. Anyone would think you were fixated by them
Reuters is a specific news source that frequently
- tells half truth
- hide important details
- reports one sided information
- presents allegations as facts
For me it is not clear who is typical Reuters reader. Ordinary people would prefer the Mail as its style is more entertaining and intellectuals would prefer BBC and some serious newspapers.
The US has never had to my knowledge that kind of sway over Syria since the Assad’s took over. Let alone lose it to Russia.
Washington spent huge money to arm and train pro-US military groups and failed completely. Washington actively promoted the slogan (completely forgotten now) - "Assad must go". Even now US troops in fact occupy part of Syria. Yes, Washington was stimulated by Israel interesting in permanent turmoil in Syria. Unfortunately for both (US and Israel) their plans are too far from being realised.
Russia was always pushing against an open door with Assad and his father before him. Since 2011 Russia has been supporting Assad’s regime economically and monetarily, with a lot of military aid. Since ‘15, openly in support with the RuAF and SF then PMC’s.
I wrote about it previously. Personally I regard Putin's adventure in Syria doubtful. It would be much better to use much needed resources for economic development, for education, for healthcare.
If you mean the US support to the FSA, that died a death even before Trump arrived and he put the final nail in the coffin.

On the other hand the SDF have proven themselves to be the one force which time after time has defeated IS. They control much of Syria but will lose part of it to the Tr armed forces and their sponsored FSA when Erdogan wants a little bit more of Syria. Much as they did in Afrin.

Assad has much to do and a lot more blood to be spilled along with displacing a couple more million before he regains control of all of Syria. When that occurs and he ‘wins’ that peace, you may say he’s ‘won’.
Well. Let's look what will happen. The Syrian conflict is not over.
 
Fwiw, Assad could be at greatest risk when he 'wins'. It will be tempting to some in Syria to clear the decks of those directly linked to the SCW. Ditch Assad and select a new leader who the West can embrace, drawing a line under the past.
 
There is nothing special here. The review was proposed by you and I found it interesting. There was one point that attracted my attention - the baseless claim that Assad regime cooperated with terrorists.
And you read the reply about what is in the book?
Wrong. I don't defend Assad and my attitude to his regime is rather neutral. I defend 'fair play' principle. I'm strongly against unacceptable method to present allegations as proven facts - whoever, for whatever reasons does it.
Wrong. You’ll defend whatever lies your ‘crooks and thieves’ circulate.
Correct. So, it would be fair from you just to agree that indeed accusations of Assad in cooperation with terrorists are no more than baseless allegations. Btw, as I understand Reuters never published any article that supports this claim.
Once again, did you read the response that was in the book?
Reuters is a specific news source that frequently
- tells half truth
- hide important details
- reports one sided information
- presents allegations as facts
For me it is not clear who is typical Reuters reader. Ordinary people would prefer the Mail as its style is more entertaining and intellectuals would prefer BBC and some serious newspapers.
Most sane people think it’s probably the most reliable news organisation on the planet. The fact that you do not .....
Washington spent huge money to arm and train pro-US military groups and failed completely. Washington actively promoted the slogan (completely forgotten now) - "Assad must go". Even now US troops in fact occupy part of Syria. Yes, Washington was stimulated by Israel interesting in permanent turmoil in Syria. Unfortunately for both (US and Israel) their plans are too far from being realised.
I’ll reiterate the comment above. You’ve been drinking the Kool Aid again. In comparison to Russian blood and money, the US support to the FSA is negligible. All to massage Assad’s ego
I wrote about it previously. Personally I regard Putin's adventure in Syria doubtful. It would be much better to use much needed resources for economic development, for education, for healthcare.
Defending the port and airbase is understandable. The first ‘mission accomplished’ by Russia would possibly have been better for the Russian economy
Well. Let's look what will happen. The Syrian conflict is not over.
We’ll be having the same conversations in 2021. A decade after the civil war started with IS Mk2.
 
Fwiw, Assad could be at greatest risk when he 'wins'. It will be tempting to some in Syria to clear the decks of those directly linked to the SCW. Ditch Assad and select a new leader who the West can embrace, drawing a line under the past.
I think that was the whole point of the Civil War. To get rid of Assad and have a more representative govt. It would mean hundreds of thousands died, millions displaced for essentially nothing. Not sure Russia or the Ba’ath party let alone Iran would be happy with that.
 
Fwiw, Assad could be at greatest risk when he 'wins'. It will be tempting to some in Syria to clear the decks of those directly linked to the SCW. Ditch Assad and select a new leader who the West can embrace, drawing a line under the past.
There was quite a bit of press speculation several years ago that the plan was for the Syrian government to win the war with Assad as leader, but that once that had been achieved he would step down and be replaced by another Alawite (or something similar) who had "clean hands" and could lead a program of reconciliation.

If you go back in the thread a ways there should be a number of posts on the subject.
 
I think that was the whole point of the Civil War. To get rid of Assad and have a more representative govt. It would mean hundreds of thousands died, millions displaced for essentially nothing. Not sure Russia or the Ba’ath party let alone Iran would be happy with that.
True. I mean sidelined, not killed, etc. Post War, Assad will be persona non grata for decades. Having made the point that Syria would not accept forced regime change, could a more acceptable, Alawite, face of the govt be found?
 
True. I mean sidelined, not killed, etc. Post War, Assad will be persona non grata for decades. Having made the point that Syria would not accept forced regime change, could a more acceptable, Alawite, face of the govt be found?
As was noted earlier in this thread, the neighbouring countries who were supporting Assad's overthrow have already started patching up relations with the Syrian government.
Here's a story from late last year.
In the latest sign that Syria's diplomatic isolation in the region may be coming to an end, oil-rich Kuwait said on Monday that more Arab countries will reopen embassies in Damascus.

Kuwait's deputy foreign minister, Khaled Al-Jarallah, said that he predicted a "thaw in relations" between Syria and the oil-rich Gulf Arab states "in the coming days as more nations look to reopen their embassies in Damascus," according to state news agency KUNA.

Last Thursday, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) reopened its embassy, and the next day Bahrain said it planned to follow suit.

The UAE, which is a close ally of Saudi Arabia, said that the new situation requires an "Arab presence and communication" in Syria.
A number of members of the Arab League are backing a proposal to reinstate Syria, who were expelled early in the civil war.
 
True. I mean sidelined, not killed, etc. Post War, Assad will be persona non grata for decades. Having made the point that Syria would not accept forced regime change, could a more acceptable, Alawite, face of the govt be found?
Mentioned four years ago and subsequent posts about possibly getting rid of Assad.

One that is ‘acceptable’ to the West is unlikely to be what Iran, the Ba’ath Party and probably Russia, after so much money and blood, want.

I see ‘normalisation’ more likely as in the West grows less voluble about him going as the unanimous UN Resolution disappears in the wake. So long as he stops using CW.

That is until IS-2 start up.
 
As was noted earlier in this thread, the neighbouring countries who were supporting Assad's overthrow have already started patching up relations with the Syrian government.
Here's a story from late last year.


A number of members of the Arab League are backing a proposal to reinstate Syria, who were expelled early in the civil war.
Good points.
I can't see how Syria can long be excluded from the Arab world. It will give pro-Western Arab states access to Russia, which like it or not is a much strengthened regional player. I can see Arab states reconciling with Syria far better than Turkey. God knows what happens there.
 
Interesting fact from the book I am reading. In 2011, the SAA has a strength of 230,000. Assad manages to mobilise 60k - hence the withdrawal from the East, South, etc. Not caused by defeat in those areas but because they needed men for Damascus and Aleppo, etc, to avoid defeat there. There were too few to defend everything.
Also, the SAA pretty much ceases to exist very early on - it is reliable militias, the Shabiha, SF, etc plus Iraqi*, Iranian, Lebanese and Palestinian forces.

*Inc a 1,000 strong Iraqi SF unit,trained in the 2000s by the US.
 
Last edited:
News from Stars and Stripes re. the seeming imminent government offensive on Khan Sheikhoun. The government has a widespread offensive ongoing in Northern Hama/South Idlib.


The SAA is also maintaining pressure at Kabani, in North Eastern Idlib. At this location, the defenders are Uyghurs and are very well dug in, it is reported. The town is reportedly under heavy RuAF bombardment.

Lastly, an update from R&U videos.

 
The latest ANNA News film about fighting to take the Latiminah/Khan Sheikhoun salient in Northern Hama/Southern Idlib. In Russian/Arabic atm but a lot is self evident. Eng subtitled version to follow.

The SAA and RuAF seem to be prevailing by having isolated the salient from the rest of Idlib by the blunt but effective method of using PGM or artillery against anything seen moving. Hamlets which are SAA objectives are being literally flattened by aircraft/artillery before the SAA goes near them.

Interesting footage at end of video of some deep tunnels dug by the rebels, and of an VBIED being blown up after capture by the SAA.

It is interesting to see the Mosin and PU sight still in use after, at minimum, 74 years (if the rifle itself wasn't made some time before 1945).

 
Last edited:
There was quite a bit of press speculation several years ago that the plan was for the Syrian government to win the war with Assad as leader, but that once that had been achieved he would step down and be replaced by another Alawite (or something similar) who had "clean hands" and could lead a program of reconciliation.
Suheil Salman al-Hassan is apparent candidate
During the Syrian Civil War, Suheil al-Hassan has served and commanded his troops during several major engagements, including Operation Canopus Star and the battle for the Shaer gas field. He is part of the new generation of field Syrian army commanders who emerged during the civil war.[9] French newspaper Le Monde has claimed he could be a rival to Assad as leader of Syria.
1565546248391.png


Suheil al-Hassan is depicted decorated by Russian order of friendship. He is extremely experienced in counter-terrorist operations.

Hassan is an Alawite.[10] He is said to have a son that he has not seen since the beginning of the Syrian Civil War. Hassan's first major media appearance was a spring 2014 video filmed and posted online by the pro-government Sama TV, showing Hassan visiting troops at the front in Aleppo.[10] He is known for liking poetry, even broadcasting his own poems over to the loudspeaker at his enemies, as a warning of what will come if they do not surrender. He says that he always tries to give a chance to his enemies to give up and surrender, but has no pity if they do not or if they betray him.[11]
Hassan refused a promotion to become brigadier general in order to continue to lead his troops directly on the battlefield.[12] His battle tactics have been described as utilizing a scorched earth policy followed by assaulting opposition positions with house to house raids.[10] A Syrian military source claimed Hassan had "never lost any battles" with Syrian opposition forces
Here you see Syrian soldiers under command of Suheil al-Hassan.
 
Suheil Salman al-Hassan is apparent candidate

View attachment 409966

Suheil al-Hassan is depicted decorated by Russian order of friendship. He is extremely experienced in counter-terrorist operations.






Here you see Syrian soldiers under command of Suheil al-Hassan.
Suheil al-Hassan is conscious of the need not to be seen as a possible leader. There is a well known clip where journalist Shade Hulwy started chanting in praise of Hassan, and Hassan was not impressed.

Al-Hassan says (it is reported) 'Bashar al-Assad is Syria!'
 
Last edited:
Suheil al-Hassan is conscious of the need not to be seen as a possible leader. There is a well known clip where journalist Shade Hulwy started chanting in praise of Hassan, and Hassan was not impressed.

Al-Hassan says (it is reported) 'Bashar al-Assad is Syria!'
On this stage any internal conflict inside Syrian ruling elite would be political suicide. Btw, Suheil al-Hassan is young for politician - only 49 but Bashar Al-Assad is not old at all - only 54.
Personally I reckon that Assad will remain at power for years and even after the end of Syrian conflict.
However, in the case of any accident, terror act Syria would not be beheaded. There exists potential experienced strong leader.
 
Latest ANNA News video of the fighting in the rebel salient in Northern Hama. Kafr Nabudah has fallen and Khan Shaykoun is only some 8km away. Interestingly, the RuAF focus now seems to have moved northwards, possibly to prevent rebel reinforcements from getting to the salient (map here: Russian warplanes target Karsa'a, Khan-Sheikhoun, southern Idlib, and Morek city in Hama northern countryside Idlib - Map of Syrian Civil War - Syria news and incidents today - syria.liveuamap.com)

The SAA is increasingly fighting at night. It will be interesting to see if NV kit reaches the rebels and the source thereof.

 
The SAA is increasingly fighting at night. It will be interesting to see if NV kit reaches the rebels and the source thereof.
The US and U.K. reportedly stopped none lethal aid inc NVG’s etc in ‘13. Some will probably still be about and from other sources including captured kit:

Of course, as Turkey supplies it’s rebels and those rebels fight the Jihadists, no doubt kit will change hands. There are other supply routes as well and the rebels have been fighting Assad’s forces at night as well as each other for years.
 

New Posts

Latest Threads

Top