Syria

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That’s rather isolationist isn’t it? I mean IS already had many oilfields that other countries were smuggling from. Imagine they got the oilfields in the south? Baghdad fell. A ‘state’ as such? A rallying cry not just for thousands but millions.

The ‘elites’ again :)

I’m sure the Falkland Islanders, Gibraltar, SB Areas would be happy with your view

I went there and did my tests. I was offered other stuff but went with what I wanted to do

You say ‘self diagnosed’. I’m not sure personally as from recollection the tests include both numeration and literacy.
Isolationist maybe, I think we have a certain Anglosphere and Europe to look after and what the crazies of the ME do is someone else's problem (Russia, Turkey, Israel, Jordan, Iraq, Iran).
Are there millions eager to join IS ? one was told that the IS cult was the minority.
How would they take Baghdad, the Shia Populace have Iran on the border and IS is entirely Sunni.

Have any of those places declared independence ?

'Elites' is a tinfoil hat term defined by establishment types. But, they exist not as a cabal, but a class of people who think they know more about everything than the average person. The evidence of the past few years does not suggest they know jack about anything.
 
Isolationist maybe, I think we have a certain Anglosphere and Europe to look after and what the crazies of the ME do is someone else's problem (Russia, Turkey, Israel, Jordan, Iraq, Iran).
So long as we depend on oil
Are there millions eager to join IS ? one was told that the IS cult was the minority.
How many flocked to the call when it was declared? How may more would likely be influenced if they actually held a country for a period of time?
How would they take Baghdad, the Shia Populace have Iran on the border and IS is entirely Sunni.
Really? All those Iraqi and Syrian troops running away? Iran undoubtedly would’ve sent in more than their militias.
Have any of those places declared independence ?
So we do need projection outside the British Isles then?
'Elites' is a tinfoil hat term defined by establishment types. But, they exist not as a cabal, but a class of people who think they know more about everything than the average person. The evidence of the past few years does not suggest they know jack about anything.
Sure. How many shares in Allan do you have?
 
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So long as we depend on oil

How many flocked to the call when it was declared? How may more would likely be influenced if they actually held a country for a period of time?

Really? All those Iraqi and Syrian troops running away? Iran undoubtedly would’ve sent in more than their militias.

So we do need projection outside the British Isles then?

Sure. How many shares in Allan do you have?
From my readings the western governments and the Gulf states underestimated the actual support Assad had inside the country. Its perfectly possible, if we had intervened and degraded the Syrian Air Force it would have strengthened the rebels, but not enough to roll over the Syrian Army making the war just as bloody, but even more room for IS to grow.

Lets agree to disagree on the UK role in the world as were not ever going to agree. But on Syria itself, what end game do you want ?? not the silly wishes of a UN charter, but what on the ground can be achieved in your view.
 
From my readings the western governments and the Gulf states underestimated the actual support Assad had inside the country. Its perfectly possible, if we had intervened and degraded the Syrian Air Force it would have strengthened the rebels, but not enough to roll over the Syrian Army making the war just as bloody, but even more room for IS to grow.
Then I suggest you read other accounts, particularly the thread of 770 pages you claim to have read. The two points where Assad was failing and likely to lose stopped due to indirect Russian involvement (materiel and money) and direct Russian involvement as they lost their airbase at Abu Alduhur and Latakia was looking to be next.
Lets agree to disagree on the UK role in the world as were not ever going to agree.
Nope, there’s not much we agree on tbh
But on Syria itself, what end game do you want ?? not the silly wishes of a UN charter, but what on the ground can be achieved in your view.
The silly wishes of a unanimous UNSC Resolution? Unanimous ie all of the security council? Why’s that silly? A transition govt actually representative of the people of Syria?

Assad has continually said he wants all of Syria back (irrespective of how many Syrian, Hezbollah and other Shi’ite militias, Iranians, Iraqi’s and Russians lives it costs). That brings him into direct confrontation with Turkey over Idlib and the Tr sponsored FSA along the Turkish border, he could go east and attack the coalition supported SDF, but so far his allies haven’t fared too well with that option.

He could negotiate, giving autonomy to those regions but so far, like his ‘de-escalation zones’ can he be trusted? He declared ‘victory’ in November ‘17 yet IS still exist in areas west of the Euphrates.

There’s a way to go yet and there haven’t been huge repatriations of the millions that left Syria to their homes. Those internally displaced are picking over the ruins and looking at the nice new posters of him.

I’m sure he’ll be happy for more money from Russia and Iran so that he can preside over the rubble. So that he doesn’t have to worry about the millions of his citizens that are living in Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan as the West are paying for them to stay there.

Yeah, ‘silly UN Resolutions’.....
 
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Then I suggest you read other accounts, particularly the thread of 770 pages you claim to have read. The two points where Assad was failing and likely to lose stopped due to indirect Russian involvement (materiel and money) and direct Russian involvement as they lost their airbase at Abu Alduhur and Latakia was looking to be next.

Nope, there’s not much we agree on tbh

The silly wishes of a unanimous UNSC Resolution? Unanimous ie all of the security council? Why’s that silly? A transition govt actually representative of the people of Syria?

Assad has continually said he wants all of Syria back (irrespective of how many Syrian, Hezbollah and other Shi’ite militias, Iranians, Iraqi’s and Russians lives it costs). That brings him into direct confrontation with Turkey over Idlib and the Tr sponsored FSA along the Turkish border, he could go east and attack the coalition supported SDF, but so far his allies haven’t fared too well with that option.

He could negotiate, giving autonomy to those regions but so far, like his ‘de-escalation zones’ can he be trusted? He declared ‘victory’ in November ‘17 yet IS still exist in areas west of the Euphrates.

There’s a way to go yet and there haven’t been huge repatriations of the millions that left Syria to their homes. Those internally displaced are picking over the ruins and looking at the nice new posters of him.

I’m sure he’ll be happy for more money from Russia and Iran so that he can preside over the rubble. So that he doesn’t have to worry about the millions of his citizens that are living in Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan as the West are paying for them to stay there.

Yeah, ‘silly UN Resolutions’.....
Personally, I thought the turning point was the inability of any significant formations of the Syrian Army to defect to the FSA, but that is the past. The UN lives in a fantasy world and not the cesspit we live in.

Syria is a civil war you would agree, as such a transitional government can only work if someone can be found all sides trust, not to go tribal and favour there own side ? that model failed in Iraq, with the presence of Turkey, Hezbollah and Israel and even more ethnic groups in Syria, an even more unlikely prospect.

The wider sunni-shia conflict is clearly very hot and potentially could get hotter with a newly aggressive Saudi, I can't see Syria ever been healed until Saudi and Iran sit down, so another frozen conflict in the world :(
 
Recent footage of the SAA/Republican Guard offensive in Daraa, which is now expanding into the Quneitra front. English captions courtesy of R&U videos.
The SAA troops look like 4th Division chaps as they are one of the few units that has soldiers in what approaches a standard uniform. This is not a 100% reliable ID!

 
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I am not sure if I follow this thread in terms of why Ivan Sidorenko is off Twitter but his account is gone.
Ivan is / was the most significant pro-Gov Tweeter. He was an invaluable source of often pretty reliable and informative front line reports. He was also the go to guy for the seemingly ubiquitous SAA 'here's me and my AK' selfies.
Hopefully he will pop back up.
Correction to the above. The Twitter user who was @IvanSidorenko1 contacted Reddit's 'Syrian Civil War' sub-Reddit (a very useful and well-moderated resource) and said he had decided to close his account. There was no blackmail, etc.

Reddit's SCW sub is here: r/syriancivilwar
 
Talks for the surrender of the largest rebels in southwestern Syria broke down, and usual service has resumed in Nawa. Syrian city Nawa bombarded in deadly campaign after reconciliation talks fail | CBC News

The report alternately talks about "bombing" and "missiles", so it is difficult to tell exactly what is happening. I suspect that unclear information is coming out.
Talks to cede the largest opposition holdout in southwestern Syria to the government have failed, triggering an intense overnight bombing campaign on the densely populated town.
The Syrian government forces have been able to recapture most of Daraa in less than a month.
In less than a month, Syrian government forces backed by Russian air power have been able to seize control of most of Daraa province, including the eponymous provincial capital that was the cradle of the uprising against President Bashar al-Assad more than seven years ago.
Talks to hand over Nawa had been going on for several days. This apparent progress encouraged civilians to return to the town. However, talks broke down and fighting resumed.
Talks to hand over Nawa, one of the most densely populated towns in Daraa province, have been ongoing for a couple of days. This has encouraged displaced civilians to return in droves to Nawa, said a local activist who goes by the name Selma Mohammed. But the talks faltered, triggering the overnight onslaught.
 
Also from the same story, the rebels allowed the population of two Shia villages in Idlib which have been under siege by the rebels for several years to be evacuated to government held territory.
Syrian city Nawa bombarded in deadly campaign after reconciliation talks fail | CBC News
Meanwhile, in the northwest, buses arrived on Wednesday to evacuate thousands of people from two Shia villages, which Sunni Islamist rebels have besieged for years, as part of a deal under which the Syrian government is expected to release hundreds of prisoners.

The villages of al-Foua and Kefraya in Idlib province, which are loyal to the Syrian government, will be emptied of all their residents and fighters. Idlib is the last major insurgent stronghold in the country and where neighbouring Turkey has deployed forces.
Approximately 7,000 people will be allowed to leave the villages.
Some 7,000 people will leave the two villages, said al-Manar TV, run by Lebanon's Shia Hezbollah movement.
This is apparently part of a deal which includes the government releasing a number of prisoners and the rebels releasing a number of Alawite hostages they have been holding.
Under the deal, the evacuees will include Alawite hostages that insurgent factions took when they overran Idlib more than three years ago, a pro-Assad commander told Reuters.
 
Personally, I thought the turning point was the inability of any significant formations of the Syrian Army to defect to the FSA, but that is the past.
Discussed previously and links to 3rd hand reporting of payment to them
The UN lives in a fantasy world and not the cesspit we live in.
The U.N. does lots of things, some good, some poor. Another unanimous UNSC Resolution that isn’t being complied with
Syria is a civil war you would agree,
Over 7 years
..as such a transitional government can only work if someone can be found all sides trust, not to go tribal and favour there own side ?
Their
More than the incumbent?
that model failed in Iraq,
Has it? They still have just under 4 weeks to form a govt
with the presence of Turkey, Hezbollah and Israel and even more ethnic groups in Syria, an even more unlikely prospect.
And Iran. Most doing little for the majority populatiion.
The wider sunni-shia conflict is clearly very hot and potentially could get hotter with a newly aggressive Saudi,
It could equally be said that KSA is finally reacting to Iranian ‘work’ in Yemen, Lebanon and Syria.
I can't see Syria ever been healed until Saudi and Iran sit down, so another frozen conflict in the world :(
True enough. As I’ve said in many occasions, it’s not black and white at all.
 
From my readings the western governments and the Gulf states underestimated the actual support Assad had inside the country. Its perfectly possible, if we had intervened and degraded the Syrian Air Force it would have strengthened the rebels, but not enough to roll over the Syrian Army making the war just as bloody, but even more room for IS to grow.

Lets agree to disagree on the UK role in the world as were not ever going to agree. But on Syria itself, what end game do you want ?? not the silly wishes of a UN charter, but what on the ground can be achieved in your view.
The SyAA was non effective very quickly, Hezb and the IRG kept him going until Russia arrived. If we'd intervened he'd have been well gone but that wouldn't necessarily have made it better in the long run.
 
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The SyAA was non effective very quickly, Hezb and the IRG kept him going until Russia arrived. If we'd intervened he'd have been well gone but that wouldn't necessarily have made it better in the long run.
Your last sentence is pretty much my conclusion as well.

Numbers matter on the ground and the willingness to use excessive force to keep the peace where necessary. If we had say a Corp of 3 Divisions deployed to southern Iraq I'm certain things would have turned out different. If Syria was occupied by a coalition including Turkey and Jordan and we had a Corp to deploy, again job done no matter the opposition.

But we as in the UK and NATO simply don't have the capability to hold ground and given the terminal dangers of the ME, I am an isolationist for that reason, all or nothing would be my motto.
 
Syria's Assad set to recover Golan frontier as surrender deal...
Syrian state tv saying that a deal has been reached re rebels in Quneitra and buses available to transport those who don’t wish to reside under Assad’s govt control, presumably to Idlib.

As usual, the deal seems to have been brokered by Russia who will guarantee the safe passage of rebels leaving:
Syrian state media cited “reports” that a deal for Quneitra province in the southwest had been reached. State TV said 10 buses entered a village in Quneitra on Thursday night for the evacuation of those insurgents “who refuse to settle with the state” towards rebel territory in the north.

A copy of the agreement sent to Reuters by a rebel source said insurgents had negotiated the deal with Russia.

Echoing surrender terms imposed on rebels elsewhere, opposition fighters agreed to give up heavy and medium-sized weapons. Those wishing to stay in the area will “settle” their status with the state, meaning accepting a return of its rule.

Those who reject the deal will be given safe passage out to the opposition-held province of Idlib in the northwest, according to terms that were also reported by a military news outlet run by Lebanon’s Hezbollah group. Iranian-backed Hezbollah is fighting in Syria in support of Assad.
Fighting appears to be continuing on the Golan border:
A Reuters witness on the Israeli side of the Golan frontier said fighting continued in the area of Tel al-Haara, a strategically vital hilltop seized by government forces this week. The sound of planes could be heard as shelling continued.

The campaign near the Golan frontier has been particularly sensitive because of Israeli concerns. Israel has signaled it has no problem with Assad recovering the area as long his Iranian and Tehran-backed allies were kept away from the frontier.
Israel wants the demarcation line (UN buffer zone) of the 1974 agreement upheld. Russian troops (MP’s) will accompany the two Syrian Brigades according to a Hezbollah news outlet that will be returning to the positions as they were in 2011:
Israel has also said it would demand strict adherence to the 1974 disengagement deal with the Syrian army on the Golan, threatening a “harsh response” to any attempt by Syrian forces to deploy in that zone. The deal, concluded after the 1973 Middle East war, created a buffer zone patrolled by the U.N. Disengagement and Observer Force.

The report by the Hezbollah-run military news outlet said the surrender agreement stipulated “the return of the Syrian army, represented in the 90th and the 61st brigades, to the positions that it was in before 2011”.

Details of the deal sent by the rebel source included a provision that Russian military police would accompany the same two Syrian army brigades “to the ceasefire line and the demilitarized zone, according to the 1974 agreement”.

The provisions did not elaborate on any implications of the deployment of military units on the 1974 agreement.
 
War and death are not funny. Inasmuch as there is room for humour in war, this video is quite amusing. Quite an old video so apologies if it has been seen before.

I believe this was posted a while back. And it's worth remembering that this was also the army that made the Iraqi army, whom the Americans had spent much time and effort on training and equipping, to run away in fear.
 
War and death are not funny. Inasmuch as there is room for humour in war, this video is quite amusing. Quite an old video so apologies if it has been seen before.

IS who made the Iraqi and Syrian army’s flee. Who were eventually stopped and driven back in Iraq and E Syria by western trained locals. They were (are as they still hold ground in Syria both sides of the Euphrates) a hard nut to crack and showed ‘brilliance’ at times, even managing to capture Palmyra twice.

I expect like all army’s they had some numpty’s.
 
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The trouble is, if you're some kid dumped at a VCP in the middle of the desert with other kids and a couple of creepy older guys, when IS roll up firing on full auto you don't know whether you're facing a crack unit of captogen fuelled Chechen renegades who are in competition for how many people they can behead with 1 hand or some buffoons who are shooting each other in the back and some guy who has just burned his mate's face off with RPG backblast.
 

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