Syria

I would say that demographics are a major factor as well, as rapid population growth has resulted in large numbers of young people. In addition, there are rising expectations which can't be met regardless of who the political leadership are.

I wouldn't want to give odds on Iran falling over, or how it would play out. The social conditions there are very different from the Arab world, although there are some similarities. I wouldn't consider it to be inconceivable though.

What I do know is that if Iran, Venezuela, and Nigeria, the latter two of which are looking particularly shaky, all fall over at the same time that will take a big chunk of the world's oil reserves off the market at the same time. While I can see Russia and Saudi Arabia feeling rather smug at the idea of skyrocketing oil prices and a sudden increase in their own indispensability, I don't think the rest of the world would look forward to the kick in the economic groin this would cause.
In Russian geostrategic gaming these are two of its main allies.
There aren't that many members of the Axis of Awfulness- Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, Cuba, Venezuala..
China is probably unimpressed with Trump, Putins placeman, starting a trade war with them.
North Korea will follow China.
Iran is overcommitted in Syria, while it's domestic politics are shaky.
Venezuala and Cuba are basket cases.

The world is coming off its petrochemical addiction quite quickly, so taking more oil off the market MAY increase the price to Russia and Saudi benefit, but I think you will see fairly rapid diversification and more shale oil coming on stream very quickly.
 
I'm shocked, shocked I tells ya...
 
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I would say that demographics are a major factor as well, as rapid population growth has resulted in large numbers of young people. In addition, there are rising expectations which can't be met regardless of who the political leadership are.

I wouldn't want to give odds on Iran falling over, or how it would play out. The social conditions there are very different from the Arab world, although there are some similarities. I wouldn't consider it to be inconceivable though.

What I do know is that if Iran, Venezuela, and Nigeria, the latter two of which are looking particularly shaky, all fall over at the same time that will take a big chunk of the world's oil reserves off the market at the same time. While I can see Russia and Saudi Arabia feeling rather smug at the idea of skyrocketing oil prices and a sudden increase in their own indispensability, I don't think the rest of the world would look forward to the kick in the economic groin this would cause.
Why do you think the establishment are keen on migration, its bleeding out some of the tension in many hot spots around the globe. Your right there are a lot of countries that could not face any serious demonstrations, as the ruling establishment has such a weak hold and there mercenary security forces are not really that loyal, but will go rock and roll under pressure.

In terms of our country, our foreign policy is outsourced to that international consensus, it may well be morally better than Putin, Iranians and Chinese but enough hypocrisy in our approach to give our enemies traction in there propaganda.

Also don't forget South Africa is moving to the brink, the star of the rainbow International consensus is going the way of Nigeria, which as you say is a powderkeg.
 
You wouldn't think that from listening to the MOD Troll Squad posting whataboutery vis a vis Shia/Sunni.
Come on Ecomcon. You call people ‘muppets’ because they disagree with you and then try and deflect what is thought about you onto others.
There both sides of the same coin in my book.
They’re.

I said that. Do you agree or disagree?
The Kurds have been the only friendly face in the ME, but I am careful to ascribe that much love to them, given the way they behaved with our prisoners in WWI, which suggests they are as vulgar as the rest.
The YPG are part of what force and who have they been fighting?
British shame is reserved for the assyrians, we sold that poor folk well down the river.
The Ottomans had been doing their genocide for years, long before WW1 and I don’t believe the terms of the armistice allowed us into what became the Turkish civil war after we left Constantinople.
As you say we never seem to learn any lessons either from recent history, or our old colonial days.
I suppose we could forget about allies in the region, have allowed IS to occupy all of Syria and Iraq and forget about the millions displaced in the seven plus year Syrian civil war and hundreds of thousands killed. Let Assad’s govt continue to use CW against his population .....
 
Turkey's Erdogan says Syrian government forces targeting Idlib...
Meanwhile Erdogan and Putin have had a chat. With SAR flogs flying over Deraa and the obvious link that once Quneitra goes Idlib is next. Erdogan says this could destroy the Astana accord:
“President Erdogan stressed that the targeting of civilians in Deraa was worrying and said that if the Damascus regime targeted Idlib in the same way the essence of the Astana accord could be completely destroyed,” the source said.
‘Negative developments’ ie nothing happening will apparently make rebel leaders attend a forthcoming meeting in Astana. Somewhat optimistic I believe:
Erdogan said the avoidance of “negative developments” in Idlib was important in terms of encouraging rebel groups to attend a meeting in Astana planned for July 30-31, according to the source.

Separately, the Kremlin confirmed in a statement Putin’s phone conversation with Erdogan on Saturday and said they had discussed joint efforts to solve the Syrian crisis.
 
In Russian geostrategic gaming these are two of its main allies.
There aren't that many members of the Axis of Awfulness- Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, Cuba, Venezuala..
China is probably unimpressed with Trump, Putins placeman, starting a trade war with them.
North Korea will follow China.
Iran is overcommitted in Syria, while it's domestic politics are shaky.
Venezuala and Cuba are basket cases.

The world is coming off its petrochemical addiction quite quickly, so taking more oil off the market MAY increase the price to Russia and Saudi benefit, but I think you will see fairly rapid diversification and more shale oil coming on stream very quickly.
Let's just step back for a minute and think of the world's oil supply and demand. First, oil demand is still rising.
OMR: Stretched to the limit
On the demand side, although there are emerging signs of reduced economic confidence, and consumers are unhappy at higher prices, we retain our view that growth in 2018 will be 1.4 mb/d, and about the same next year.
To put the above in perspective, the projected growth in demand for 2018 is roughly equivalent to one UK's worth of annual consumption.

On the supply side, spare capacity is being stretched to the limit. There are no signs of sufficient higher production elsewhere which might relieve this situation.
Some of these supply issues are likely to be resolved, but the large number of disruptions reminds us of the pressure on global oil supply. This will become an even bigger issue as rising production from Middle East Gulf countries and Russia, welcome though it is, comes at the expense of the world’s spare capacity cushion, which might be stretched to the limit. This vulnerability currently underpins oil prices and seems likely to continue doing so. We see no sign of higher production from elsewhere that might ease fears of market tightness.
The IEA report highlights a concern about a loss of supply from Venezuela and Iran. Libya is also mentioned as a big concern.

Oil wells, processing facilities, pipelines, and loading terminals will not magically appear out of nowhere. Once spare capacity is used up, it takes years to put more in place.

If a significant disruption to global oil supplies occurs, we will see a spike in world oil prices which very possibly will trigger a global economic recession. I would not look forward to that. We have a greater interest in continuity of global oil supply than we do in whatever vicarious thrill we may derive in seeing various unpopular (to us) third world governments discomfited.
 
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Let's just step back for a minute and think of the world's oil supply and demand. First, oil demand is still rising.
OMR: Stretched to the limit

To put the above in perspective, the projected growth in demand for 2018 is roughly equivalent to one UK's worth of annual consumption.

On the supply side, spare capacity is being stretched to the limit. There are no signs of sufficient higher production elsewhere which might relieve this situation.


The IEA report highlights a concern about a loss of supply from Venezuela and Iran. Libya is also mentioned as a big concern.

Oil wells, processing facilities, pipelines, and loading terminals will not magically appear out of nowhere. Once spare capacity is used up, it takes years to put more in place.

If a significant disruption to global oil supplies occurs, we will see a spike in world oil prices which very possibly will trigger a global economic recession. I would not look forward to that. We have a greater interest in continuity of global oil supply than we do in whatever vicarious thrill we may derive in seeing various unpopular (to us) third world governments discomfited.
The final decline of the British Empire post-war was linked directly to the governments constant wish to hold onto a seat at the top table and a wish to maintain its interests in the world. We're still trying to do it now, with an ever diminishing footprint and all those efforts get us nothing but the square root of FO.

On one item you give: Oil, your completely right. But, your scope is too narrow. The country simply does not act selfishly enough, supposedly our values and morals are too high for that sort of thing and the reason we are loved in the world, when somebody wants something from us and called names when not.

The 'UK Gov' Troll Squad on here will hate this commentary, but there masters have failed on every account they have opened and I don't see why they have the right to maintain the aim (protect the elites) any longer.
 
The final decline of the British Empire post-war was linked directly to the governments constant wish to hold onto a seat at the top table and a wish to maintain its interests in the world. We're still trying to do it now, with an ever diminishing footprint and all those efforts get us nothing but the square root of FO.

On one item you give: Oil, your completely right. But, your scope is too narrow. The country simply does not act selfishly enough, supposedly our values and morals are too high for that sort of thing and the reason we are loved in the world, when somebody wants something from us and called names when not.

The 'UK Gov' Troll Squad on here will hate this commentary, but there masters have failed on every account they have opened and I don't see why they have the right to maintain the aim (protect the elites) any longer.
Tinfoil alley.
 
The final decline of the British Empire post-war was linked directly to the governments constant wish to hold onto a seat at the top table and a wish to maintain its interests in the world. We're still trying to do it now, with an ever diminishing footprint and all those efforts get us nothing but the square root of FO.
The decline and loss of Empire was twofold. Firstly, trying to fight two global wars in quick (just over twenty years) succession for a based on trading Empire is economically difficult if not impossible. The rise of independent movements, assisted somewhat by allies who didn’t like empires, added to this which turns out to be a bit of pot and kettle.

Other states want a place at the top table. Not a problem, all P5 give up their veto. The U.K. isn’t the only member of the P5 which has lost an Empire since appointment. I can’t see it happening personally.
On one item you give: Oil, your completely right. But, your scope is too narrow. The country simply does not act selfishly enough, supposedly our values and morals are too high for that sort of thing and the reason we are loved in the world, when somebody wants something from us and called names when not.
You’re

We should act more selfishly? Not sure what you mean by that. I can’t think of any country which doesn’t act selfishly. We do try and get a bit of a consensus but it doesn’t always work.
The 'UK Gov' Troll Squad on here will hate this commentary,
A phrase used by conspiraloons like 118118
but there masters have failed on every account they have opened
Their

I can’t think of anybody who actually supports the U.K. govt on everything and anybody in the pay of the govt to post on here wouldn’t be able to call someone a site toilet
and I don't see why they have the right to maintain the aim (protect the elites) any longer.
Protect the elites? Up the workers bruvva!

You’re supposed to be a hand picked R Sigs RTG, who allegedly has dyslexia. You clearly have problems understanding the difference between ‘there’, ‘their’ and ‘theyre’ and constantly post ‘been’ as ‘being’ which is supposed to be ‘northern english’.

Use of phrases such as ‘U.K. gov’, trolls and ‘elites’ add to the picture. Thanks.

This thread is supposed to be about Syria. Assad’s govt is taking the rebel held areas to the south on the Jordanian and Israeli borders. Once Quneitra falls, in all likelihood it will be Idlib next where every single Jihadist (other than IS) and rebel who doesn’t want to be under Assad’s govt control has relocated to with their personal weapons. The area is a ‘deconfliction zone’ but they don’t really exist anymore. It’s ‘guaranteed’ by the ‘elected’ Sultan of Turkey who feels Astana will have failed if Idlib is attacked.

Even if Idlib falls there are still Tr sponsored FSA areas to the north and of course the plus or minus 25% of Syria held by the SDF having driven out IS east of the Euphrates. Meanwhile UNSC Resolution 2254 initiated by Russia gathers dust: Security Council Unanimously Adopts Resolution 2254 (2015), Endorsing Road Map for Peace Process in Syria, Setting Timetable for Talks | Meetings Coverage and Press Releases

Oh and IS still exist in areas to the east and west of the Euphrates. The eastern lot are currently being assaulted by the coalition.
 
The following story has a few rather interesting aspects relating to the kidnapping and ransom business being run by the rebels in Syria.
'Abandoned by my country': Former hostage in Syria says Canada let him down | CBC Radio

To begin with a bit of background, Carl Campeau is a Canadian who was working as a legal advisor for the UN observing the ceasefire between Israel and Syria. Early in the rebellion (2013) he was kidnapped by Nusra Front from a suburb of Damascus and held for ransom. Canadian policy was (and still is) that no ransom would be paid.

New information about what happened has recently come out.

Part of the rebel plan for ramping up the pressure on Canada was to claim that Campeau had been injured by a "shell" which struck the house where he was being held. A video was produced showing what appeared to be his left leg amputated at his knee. In reality, he was not injured and his leg was folded back underneath him and some bandages wrapped around his knee to give that appearance with Iodine used to produce what appeared to be "blood stains".
How Canadian Carl Campeau escaped al-Qaeda's clutches | CBC News

The Nusra video produced as "proof of life" is at the first link above.

No ransom was paid, and he eventually managed to escape by himself and found safety with the Syrian army.

One of his kidnappers was found in Germany last year claiming to be a refugee. The Germans sentenced him to 3-1/2 years in prison.
Germany jails Syrian refugee over Canadian UN observer's abduction | CBC News

The part that I found most interesting was that a video showing fake injuries was produced as part of these events, and that his "injury" was attributed to a "shell", presumably thereby pinning the blame for this on the Syrian government.

I have "shell" in quotes because the choice of this word should not be taken as a precise technical term, as the script will have been written by people whose knowledge of English may not be perfect.

Campeau is not a fan of the "no ransom" policy, but that is not really central to the issues under discussion here.
 
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The decline and loss of Empire was twofold. Firstly, trying to fight two global wars in quick (just over twenty years) succession for a based on trading Empire is economically difficult if not impossible. The rise of independent movements, assisted somewhat by allies who didn’t like empires, added to this which turns out to be a bit of pot and kettle.

Other states want a place at the top table. Not a problem, all P5 give up their veto. The U.K. isn’t the only member of the P5 which has lost an Empire since appointment. I can’t see it happening personally.

You’re

We should act more selfishly? Not sure what you mean by that. I can’t think of any country which doesn’t act selfishly. We do try and get a bit of a consensus but it doesn’t always work.

A phrase used by conspiraloons like 118118

Their

I can’t think of anybody who actually supports the U.K. govt on everything and anybody in the pay of the govt to post on here wouldn’t be able to call someone a site toilet

Protect the elites? Up the workers bruvva!

You’re supposed to be a hand picked R Sigs RTG, who allegedly has dyslexia. You clearly have problems understanding the difference between ‘there’, ‘their’ and ‘theyre’ and constantly post ‘been’ as ‘being’ which is supposed to be ‘northern english’.

Use of phrases such as ‘U.K. gov’, trolls and ‘elites’ add to the picture. Thanks.

This thread is supposed to be about Syria. Assad’s govt is taking the rebel held areas to the south on the Jordanian and Israeli borders. Once Quneitra falls, in all likelihood it will be Idlib next where every single Jihadist (other than IS) and rebel who doesn’t want to be under Assad’s govt control has relocated to with their personal weapons. The area is a ‘deconfliction zone’ but they don’t really exist anymore. It’s ‘guaranteed’ by the ‘elected’ Sultan of Turkey who feels Astana will have failed if Idlib is attacked.

Even if Idlib falls there are still Tr sponsored FSA areas to the north and of course the plus or minus 25% of Syria held by the SDF having driven out IS east of the Euphrates. Meanwhile UNSC Resolution 2254 initiated by Russia gathers dust: Security Council Unanimously Adopts Resolution 2254 (2015), Endorsing Road Map for Peace Process in Syria, Setting Timetable for Talks | Meetings Coverage and Press Releases

Oh and IS still exist in areas to the east and west of the Euphrates. The eastern lot are currently being assaulted by the coalition.
The empire was a giant drain on the British Government post WWI and more so post WW2. Only Malaya paid its way and contributed to the Imperial Coffers. Now we don't have an empire and people like you want us to still have commitments across the world and then wonder why there is no more money.

I post 'UK Gov' to annoy Slime, as he thinks its an indicator of russianism (juvenile I know). Cheers for keep going on about my probs, not particularly pleasant of you, but unsurprising as my chatter is diametrically the opposite to your world view.

On Syria, I am convinced all sides are equally unpleasant and not worth any blood, or our diminishing treasury. The virtue and morality argument of something must be done, is the usual response, particularly over chemicals. But what has it achieved arming the rebels ??
 
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The following story has a few rather interesting aspects relating to the kidnapping and ransom business being run by the rebels in Syria.
'Abandoned by my country': Former hostage in Syria says Canada let him down | CBC Radio

To begin with a bit of background, Carl Campeau is a Canadian who was working as a legal advisor for the UN observing the ceasefire between Israel and Syria. Early in the rebellion (2013) he was kidnapped by Nusra Front from a suburb of Damascus and held for ransom. Canadian policy was (and still is) that no ransom would be paid.

New information about what happened has recently come out.

Part of the rebel plan for ramping up the pressure on Canada was to claim that Campeau had been injured by a "shell" which struck the house where he was being held. A video was produced showing what appeared to be his left leg amputated at his knee. In reality, he was not injured and his leg was folded back underneath him and some bandages wrapped around his knee to give that appearance with Iodine used to produce what appeared to be "blood stains".
How Canadian Carl Campeau escaped al-Qaeda's clutches | CBC News

The Nusra video produced as "proof of life" is at the first link above.

No ransom was paid, and he eventually managed to escape by himself and found safety with the Syrian army.

One of his kidnappers was found in Germany last year claiming to be a refugee. The Germans sentenced him to 3-1/2 years in prison.
Germany jails Syrian refugee over Canadian UN observer's abduction | CBC News

The part that I found most interesting was that a video showing fake injuries was produced as part of these events, and that his "injury" was attributed to a "shell", presumably thereby pinning the blame for this on the Syrian government.

I have "shell" in quotes because the choice of this word should not be taken as a precise technical term, as the script will have been written by people whose knowledge of English may not be perfect.

Campeau is not a fan of the "no ransom" policy, but that is really central to the issues under discussion here.
One of many stories to make the point, its not simply a black/white hat situation in that country. Despite the efforts to make it a simpler bad/good argument by the western powers wanting to fight its new cold war in another nation.
 
The empire was a giant drain on the British Government post WWI and more so post WW2. Only Malaya paid its way and contributed to the Imperial Coffers. Now we don't have an empire and people like you want us to still have commitments across the world and then wonder why there is no more money.
What commitments? Or are you saying it’s not better to defeat IS at source?
I post 'UK Gov' to annoy Slime, as he thinks its an indicator of russianism (juvenile I know). Cheers for keep going on about my probs, not particularly pleasant of you, but unsurprising as my chatter is diametrically the opposite to your world view.
You pretend on so many things, my character now?
On Syria, I am convinced all sides are equally unpleasant and not worth any blood, or our diminishing treasury. The virtue and morality argument of something must be done, is the usual response, particularly over chemicals. But what has it achieved arming the rebels ??
I suppose we could just withdraw from P5 and give up the responsibilities that go with it?

Who armed the rebels?
 
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What commitments? Or are you saying it’s not better to defeat IS at source?

You pretend on so many things, my character now?

I suppose we could just withdraw from P5 and give up the responsibilities that go with it?

Who armed the rebels?
I am saying IS are no different to any of the other crazies, let them fight there own wars. If winner emerges we can revisit the policy and deal with it, if it threatens the disUnited Kingdom.

That dismissive response, says it all.

Why not, what does the P5 seat give us anyway but grief. Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, United States vs Iran, Russia, Hezbollah just a nice old straight up fight for everyone elses interests but our own.
 
I am saying IS are no different to any of the other crazies, let them fight there own wars. If winner emerges we can revisit the policy and deal with it, if it threatens the disUnited Kingdom.
So rather than helping with a unanimous UNSC Resolution and defeat IS, you let them control two countries, interrupt oil supplies and ‘prove’ their Caliphate? Okay ...
That dismissive response, says it all.
Sure. You know everything about me :rolleyes:

As per your old account, instead of reading the thread and finding out what’s happened before .....
Why not, what does the P5 seat give us anyway but grief. Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, United States vs Iran, Russia, Hezbollah just a nice old straight up fight for everyone elses interests but our own.
But you’re happy with a UNSC Resolution being made against direct U.K. interests and having no veto? Okay ....
 
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So rather than helping with a unanimous UNSC Resolution and defeat IS, you let them control two countries, interrupt oil supplies and ‘prove’ their Caliphate? Okay ...

Sure. You know everything about me :rolleyes:

As per your old account, instead of reading the thread and finding out what’s happened before .....

But you’re happy with a UNSC Resolution being made against direct U.K. interests and having no veto? Okay ....
IS are a long way from Durham and they were never going to control two countries. Undoubtedly, they are the worst of the bunch, but let the regional players deal with problems in there own sphere of influence.

I called someone a muppet because they had a pop at me and its you who continually bring up my own disability against me. An undiagnosed disability I might add, that I managed to cope with through 11 years of service, which I am proud of, given the problems. I never progressed beyond L/Cpl largely over problems with writing stuff down, as you know its v important to many people.

I have read the thread and I dispute the need for action by the United Kingdom. There is simply no hidden meanings, troll factories or RT broadcasts which guide my opinions, its just my personal opinion.
 
IS are a long way from Durham and they were never going to control two countries. Undoubtedly, they are the worst of the bunch, but let the regional players deal with problems in there own sphere of influence.
Paris is a long way as is London. What stopped them in Iraq?

You mean get a combined force of regional players and support and train them? Radical!
I called someone a muppet because they had a pop at me and its you who continually bring up my own disability against me. An undiagnosed disability I might add, that I managed to cope with through 11 years of service, which I am proud of, given the problems. I never progressed beyond L/Cpl largely over problems with writing stuff down, as you know its v important to many people.
I’m not sure an inability to tell the difference between there, their and they’re and using ‘been’ instead of ‘being’ is dyslexia personally. 11 years as an RTG and made Lance Jack? Surely they would have picked this up at your tests in Sutton Coldfield?
I have read the thread and I dispute the need for action by the United Kingdom. There is simply no hidden meanings, troll factories or RT broadcasts which guide my opinions, its just my personal opinion.
I disagree for numerous reasons but there you go
 
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Paris is a long way as is London. What stopped them in Iraq?

You mean get a combined force of regional players and support and train them? Radical!

I’m not sure an inability to tell the difference between there, their and they’re and using ‘been’ instead of ‘being’ is dyslexia personally. 11 years as an RTG and made Lance Jack? Surely they would have picked this up at your tests in Sutton Coldfield?

I disagree for numerous reasons but there you go
Who cares, if it was beyond the culminating point, stiffening Iraqi government resistance, bombs or kurds. The point is, let the regional players deal with it, they don't need support or training, its not our problem.

When the empire ended, any commitments we had should have ended, but the elites quite like strutting the world stage and sadly we have continued to make promises, without a by or leave to the populace.

You haven't a clue about Sutton, testing back then was to measure intelligence, not a written test. Unless your suggesting dyslexic people are too stupid to be RTGs ???
 
Who cares, if it was beyond the culminating point, stiffening Iraqi government resistance, bombs or kurds. The point is, let the regional players deal with it, they don't need support or training, its not our problem.
That’s rather isolationist isn’t it? I mean IS already had many oilfields that other countries were smuggling from. Imagine they got the oilfields in the south? Baghdad fell. A ‘state’ as such? A rallying cry not just for thousands but millions.
When the empire ended, any commitments we had should have ended, but the elites quite like strutting the world stage and sadly we have continued to make promises, without a by or leave to the populace.
The ‘elites’ again :)

I’m sure the Falkland Islanders, Gibraltar, SB Areas would be happy with your view
You haven't a clue about Sutton, testing back then was to measure intelligence, not a written test.
I went there and did my tests. I was offered other stuff but went with what I wanted to do
Unless your suggesting dyslexic people are too stupid to be RTGs ???
You say ‘self diagnosed’. I’m not sure personally as from recollection the tests include both numeration and literacy.
 

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