Syria. would the Russians want to get involves? Could they? Would NATO let them?

Discussion in 'The Intelligence Cell' started by BuggerAll, Aug 3, 2011.

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  1. BuggerAll

    BuggerAll LE Reviewer Book Reviewer

    Some plonker started a thread 'betting' that the Russians would invade Syria. Pretty stupid assertion but the thread has some interesting points so I thought I'd restart it without the silliness.

    The question is would the Russians want to get involved in Syria (on the side of the Angels)? If they wanted to could they? Would NATO or the west 'allow' them to and could 'we' stop them if we didn't like it?

    My own view is that they probably wouldn't want to as they are fairly pally with the current regime and have no particular sympathy to democratic uprisings. In fact I couldn't even see them being interested in being part of an alliance although it's possible that they might see some future gain in stepping up to the plate. A co-operative venture between Turkey and Russia? Turkey are having issues with Syrian refugees and could be prodded into taking action but they would be strange bed fellows.

    I don't know really know what their current capabilities are but I understand that they probably couldn't mount an invasion without the co-operation of the western alliance in general and the US and Turkey in particular.

    Would the west want to stop them? Probably not. Russian intervention would probably be viewed as a good thing for a variety of good and cynical reasons. Could we stop them. Yes in as much as they probably couldn't do it without western co-operation and Yes in as much as we could sink their ships and knock down their aircraft if we were so inclined but probably No in as much as I doubt we would be prepared to go to war with Russia to stop them invading Syria.
     
  2. I just can't see it being in Russia's interests to get involved in Syria especially with all that could go wrong and theres just not enough reward to justify the risk. Having sat back and chuckled at the West's difficulties in Iraq and Afghanistan in recent years I doubt they'd be looking to get into their own fucked up adventure. Also as I stated in the other thread I genuinely just don't believe that the Russians can pull it off due to their limited capabilities.
    And while NATO is unlikely to risk war over Syria I just can't see the Russians taking the risk of pushing NATO into a corner by acting without Western approval and trying to force their way through Turkish territory.
     
  3. BuggerAll

    BuggerAll LE Reviewer Book Reviewer

    There is another issue: Unlike Libya no one in Syria is inviting outside intervention. Every Syrian I have heard commenting has said that foreigners should keep out wheras there where plenty of libyans begging us to go in. Of course we may only be hearing what the 'powers that be' want us to hear. The media have a habit of censoring the message when it's not the one they want to put out.
     
  4. Yes Nato would let them,,it's simple, we save lots and lots of money,,then have a good larf when they fail miserably,,by getting ass f*ck*d by the Muslim world.....
     
  5. Remember that in 1981/1982 Assad's father slaughtered up to 40,000 Sunni Muslims mainly male,,and that was in one city alone,,,,These Alawite's can be really nasty bastards..........
     
  6. The "side of the angels"?

    Which out of the various sides that exist/have emerged/will emerge in Syrian politics fits that description?

    I would have thought that goodie/baddie identification was necessary before wading in ourselves. Or perhaps we'll just do as usual and decide that the baddies are the ones whose actions generate the most weeping children on News at Ten. Or just toss a coin; that should do the trick.
     
  7. BuggerAll

    BuggerAll LE Reviewer Book Reviewer

    That's why I asked the question that way. In my view the only legitimate form of government is pluralist democracy with the rule of law. We should be very wary of being involved with anything that aspires to other than that.
     
  8. considering Russia's track record with muslim nations maybe Russia might be a bit hesitant to try another round.
     
  9. BuggerAll

    BuggerAll LE Reviewer Book Reviewer

    True, but coming to the aid of Muslims to rescue them from a corrupt oppressive and murderous regime might play well with other Muslims.
     
  10. chrisg46

    chrisg46 LE Book Reviewer

    Yeah, cos that worked so well for us...
     
    • Like Like x 1
  11. BuggerAll

    BuggerAll LE Reviewer Book Reviewer

    Or has it? I always thought one of the aims of OP IRAQI FREEDOM/TELIC was to trigger a domino effect on the corrupt and undemocratic governments in the Middle East. The Arab Spring might be that. Of course being idle foreigners they are nearly a decade late and being perfidious kaffirs we failing to live up to our part of the deal....
     
  12. good idea in theory,but you know how good the russians are at hearts and minds operations. :)
     
  13. :salut::salut::salut:Hey! BuggerAll:

    I am the plonker that started the thread with interesting points (as you kindly admit).

    You can't steel another man's thunder!

    You know my opinions on the matter in my multiple posts!

    No ****** supported my observations but less than 24 hrs later and you for one are having second thoughts already.

    Look at my last post on MY thread Re:Today's Russian military Capability ....... enough said.

    In fact, read all of the thread for a more realistic view of the situation.

    Plonker indeed. :)
     
  14. chrisg46

    chrisg46 LE Book Reviewer

  15. BuggerAll

    BuggerAll LE Reviewer Book Reviewer

    No second thoughts on my part;

    "My own view is that they probably wouldn't want to as they are fairly pally with the current regime and have no particular sympathy to democratic uprisings. In fact I couldn't even see them being interested in being part of an alliance although it's possible that they might see some future gain in stepping up to the plate. A co-operative venture between Turkey and Russia? Turkey are having issues with Syrian refugees and could be prodded into taking action but they would be strange bed fellows."

    Pretty much what I said before. I always like to look at all sides of an issue. Very few things in life are black and white. It does no harm to explore reasons why the Russians might think it would be to their advantage to intervene in Syria and there are some. On the whole though I think they are outweighed by the disadvantages as they would see it.