Syria next?

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by AIR FILTER, Apr 29, 2011.

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  1. What are the chances of Britain and or NATO intervening in the crises in Syria by way of military force now?

    Bear in mind that Syria is a oil producing country!
     
  2. According to this source

    Oil - exports(bbl/day) - Color Coded World Map - All Countries

    Syria exports 150,000 but imports 160,000 barrels of oil per day. It means that for the global oil market significance of Syria is almost zero.

    Let's look at the intersts of some countries in Syria.

    Israel is interested in a weak government in Syria, in a ruler more concerned about his political survival that in a confrontation with Israel.

    Washington follows orders from Israel (previously as a rule, now unconditionally). The fall of Assad's regime would bring the Muslim Brotherhood (or even more unpleasant for Washington politics) to power.

    Europe. The Europeans including the UK will not do anything without permission from Washington and as maximum would accuse the Assad's regime in the 'stongest terms'.

    Iran is interesting in Shiites at power in Syria. Assad and the ruling elite all are Allawites (a Shiite sect).

    Turkey is interesting in a stable Syria with controlled Kurdish minority. They don't like prospects of creation of new Kurdish guerilla base in Syria.

    Russia. Who does give a stuff what Russia thinks? Recently Russia blocked an UNSC resolution about the situation in Syria, thus giving the West an excuse not to do anything just because 'there is no UNSC resolution'.

    The protesters in Syria hope for Libyan scenario and the scale of the riots was caused also by the NATO involvement in Libya. Later or rather sooner the protesters will understand that they would not have any external help.

    Likely the Assad's regime will make some concessions to the opposition but will remain at power.