Syria Conflict Escalation - Syrian Troops Attack Refuge Camp in Turkey

#2
I wonder if this a deliberate attempt, by whichever side, to draw other nations directly into the conflict?
 
#4
I wonder if this a deliberate attempt, by whichever side, to draw other nations directly into the conflict?
Forgive my ignorance, but what exactly does the Syrian government gain by picking a fight with Turkey? They are having enough trouble dealing with the rebels.

I suppose Assad could be banking on an external threat causing support for the rebels to collapse, but it's bloody risky. Even the Israeli's would probably think twice before accusing the Turks of spilling their pint...:threaten:
 
#5
Forgive my ignorance, but what exactly does the Syrian government gain by picking a fight with Turkey? They are having enough trouble dealing with the rebels.

I suppose Assad could be banking on an external threat causing support for the rebels to collapse, but it's bloody risky. Even the Israeli's would probably think twice before accusing the Turks of spilling their pint...:threaten:
You assume that I implied that the shooter was from the government forces.
 
#7
If Syrian forces attack across the border unto Turkish soil and have killed Turkish soldiers..... Is that not Casus Belli for Turkey?

Bit bloody stupid of the Syrians, they're under enough pressure.
 
#8
Attacking refugee camps is practically traditional but Kofi Annan will be so disappointed in Bashar.
 
#10
BBC now reporting that a cameraman with Lebanese TV has been shot on the Syrian border.

No linky yet.
 
#11
I hope the Turks mallet them, they've had it coming and to be honest it's shameful that the Syrian government have got away with it so long. Ok invading the place would be messy but I can see no reason we couldn't have done some good i.e. bombing the gun lines they're using to shell civvies.
 
#12
If Syrian forces attack across the border unto Turkish soil and have killed Turkish soldiers..... Is that not Casus Belli for Turkey?

Bit bloody stupid of the Syrians, they're under enough pressure.
Too right this is probably an unlawful international incident and indeed “Casus Belli” as far as the Turkish Government is concerned. How they decide to deal with it is for them to decide, everybody else must sit back and wait, to intervene at this time would possibly be ill-advised and exacerbate the situation. Obviously diplomatic channels will have been used in the first instance but whether they will achieve the desired result is another matter as it is becoming patently obvious that President Bashar al-Assad cannot be trusted, moving the goalposts to suit himself and his despotic regime. To say the Turkish authorities are not best pleased would be an understatement; newscasts by numerous reputable news agencies coming from Kilis seem to indicate that Syrian troops are deliberately targeting Turkish territory. If this is the case then we are seeing war crimes and crimes against humanity, genocide even, therefore the Turkish authorities must act appropriately and with caution, ensuring they are seen to be acting in the best interests of the refugees. As diplomatic relations between Turkey and Syria have been broken down the Syrian charge d'affaires in Ankara has been summoned and told such indiscriminate attacks must cease forthwith.

In the last hour Al-Jadeed (Lebanese media) are reporting that one of it photographers has been killed by Syrian forces near the Lebanese town of Wadi Khalid close to the Syrian border. From what can be ascertained from translation (Arabic is not my strong subject), it would appear to be an unprovoked attack on the part of the Syrians.

As for military intervention by any country other than Turkey, would be unacceptable to the UN, especially to Russia and China and any intervention by the Turks would have to be a measured response of the defensive kind. An outright assault on Syrian soil would be seen as a warlike act, therefore something similar to the Tunisians actions during the Libyan crisis, whereby no matter which side “attacked” Tunisian soil, they were snatched and held by Tunisia.

The question now is how many more errors of judgement will President Bashar al-Assad make? Will he try sending his troops to fire on refugee camps in Israel & Jordan? That would cause real problems - the Israelis only need the slightest excuse to go for a lunchtime jolly before returning home for afternoon tea and cakes!! As for the Russian hoards rushing south, please excuse the pun, this would be difficult in the extreme as it would require the acquiescence of surrounding nations - something that is very unlikely to happen. As for the Russian arriving by sea, that too is highly unlikely as the Turks would certainly refuse access to the Bosporus and the Sea of Marmara!!!
 
#13
#14
IF you wanted to dust off the desert kit again...
http://www.nato.int/nato-welcome/pdf/nato_treaty_en_light.pdf
Article 2
If the Republic of Turkey becomes a Party to the North Atlantic Treaty, Article 6 of the Treaty
shall, as from the date of the deposit by the Government of the Republic of Turkey of its
instruments of accession with the Government of the United States of America, be modified
to read as follows:
For the purpose of Article 5, an armed attack on one or more of the Parties is deemed to
include an armed attack:
1. on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America, on the Algerian
Departments of France, ON THE TERRITORY OF TURKEY or on the islands under the
jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer;


Technically speaking, if Turkey presses the Article 5 button, all of NATO should pile in.
All it really needs is some Syrian government forces to get caught on the wrong side of the border.
 
#15
IF you wanted to dust off the desert kit again...
http://www.nato.int/nato-welcome/pdf/nato_treaty_en_light.pdf
Article 2
If the Republic of Turkey becomes a Party to the North Atlantic Treaty, Article 6 of the Treaty
shall, as from the date of the deposit by the Government of the Republic of Turkey of its
instruments of accession with the Government of the United States of America, be modified
to read as follows:
For the purpose of Article 5, an armed attack on one or more of the Parties is deemed to
include an armed attack:
1. on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America, on the Algerian
Departments of France, ON THE TERRITORY OF TURKEY or on the islands under the
jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer;


Technically speaking, if Turkey presses the Article 5 button, all of NATO should pile in.
All it really needs is some Syrian government forces to get caught on the wrong side of the border.
Would the Turks need to? I believe the Turkish Armed Forces are somewhere north of 600,000 regulars, with about half as much again in reservists and paramilitary units.
 
#16
If turkey decides to roll in I dont think russia can do much apart from complain.
Its not the red army of old didnt do brilliantly against georgia of course russia won just not brilliantly and their navy is a bit rubbish.

Hopefully bashir is going to end facing a 1/4 million pissed off memhits :)
 
#17
Turkey has been trying to up its international standing of late. Let's face it their traditional enemy (the Greeks) aren't doing too well right now, so it seems a good time.

But where would the Turkish interest be?

Forgive me, are there territorial claims? Chance to square up their kurdish issue? Other cross-border ethnic issues? Or just to stop an influx of displaced persons into Turkey?

I seem to remeber a few cross border things anyhow-was it an airstrike recently?

And on an aside, wasn't it Article 5 the US invoked after 9/11 (collective defence).

And what of those Russians reported landed? Still there?
 
#18
Would the Turks need to? I believe the Turkish Armed Forces are somewhere north of 600,000 regulars, with about half as much again in reservists and paramilitary units.
The Turks are more than capable of dealing with the Syrian army, it is about 200K regulars but large parts of it are Sunni and unreliable, what remains is a rump of Alawite palace guards. The question is would the Turks really want to refight al Anbar in Syria for half a decade?

As the Kurds know the Turks can be as brutal as the Syrians could get very messy and the world is still mithering them about the Armenians, being responsible for heaps of dead Christians (some Armenian) and Alawites may make Ankara cautious.
 
#19
Hypothetically speaking, If turkey did ask for NATO assistance and we went in with the Americans, French etc, who would take the lead and be in command? Would it be the country being defended ie the Turkish armed forces or would everyone come under a central NATO command of some sort, or the country providing the bulk of the firepower which presumably would be the US? How would something like this work?
 
#20
Given that the Syrian government is currently wearing its underpants on its head, and not acting rationally, the one thing that they might think could pull the Syrian public back behind the Assads is if a nasty neighbour foreign power is threatening to invade.
The only significant powers that could do this are Israel- (not going to) and Turkey.
Turkey is feeling its oats a bit lately, and is also really annoyed with Assad for not doing what he was told. But since he is now a fully paid up sock puppet for the Iranians and the Russians, he wasn't in a position to. Therefore, if you want to provoke an invasion to distract the public, the Turks might fall for it.

And the US did invoke Article 5 after 9/11.

The Syrians do have a pretty powerful conventional military, but have also got a LOT of chemical weapons. I don't see the Turks as wanting to go up against that without a lot of NATO technical assistance.
 

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