Summering in Syria?

#1
Does anyone think there's any sort of realistic chance that we would get involved militarily here?

In the past I've dismissed the idea but as the rhetoric increases and the leaders of the UK and France (who is going into an election) are still basking in the success of the Libya operation it doesnt seem like the remote possibility it once was. I cant see us going in with ground troops but bunging them weapons and bombing the crap out of Damascus isnt hard to imagine.
 
S

Screw_The_Nut

Guest
#2
Perhaps if you're in the crabs. there is no chance our ground forces are going to be deployed anywhere for the next couple of years, not in any significant numbers anyway. There is a bigger chance of going to Somalia to be honest.
 
#3
Does anyone think there's any sort of realistic chance that we would get involved militarily here?

In the past I've dismissed the idea but as the rhetoric increases and the leaders of the UK and France (who is going into an election) are still basking in the success of the Libya operation it doesnt seem like the remote possibility it once was. I cant see us going in with ground troops but bunging them weapons and bombing the crap out of Damascus isnt hard to imagine.
I too can see the possibility of the latter scenario. Damascus would be a FIBUA nightmare, especially the Old Town.
 
#4
same as Libya, there's no chance that we'd send in troops but i seems to me that we're going through exactly the same motions that we did with Libya. i can see why the russians and the chinese vetoed it as they know the next step would be military action/civilian protection which would effectively become a mission for regime change.

with their conections to iran i could see why it might seem like a good idea but personally i still dont think we should be picking sides in a civil war and if we're going to drastically reduce our defence capabilities we should stop picking fights with every other country in the middle east.
 
#5
Does anyone think there's any sort of realistic chance that we would get involved militarily here?

In the past I've dismissed the idea but as the rhetoric increases and the leaders of the UK and France (who is going into an election) are still basking in the success of the Libya operation it doesnt seem like the remote possibility it once was. I cant see us going in with ground troops but bunging them weapons and bombing the crap out of Damascus isnt hard to imagine.
With the exception of our politicians wanting to big themselves up, what valid reason do we have to get involved in Syria's civil war? If they want to kill each other, let them crack on. It's no loss to us.

And if we're arming the rebels, I hope we get paid up front and in cash.
 
#7
David, I reckon, will want a war cause Tony was allowed one.

New medal anyone?
The greedy bugger's already had Libya! Anyway, I'm sure he can somehow manage to drag the UK into Operation: The Rapture when Iran vs the Great Satan and the Red Sea Pedestrians kicks off...
 
#8
he's already had Libya and him Tony and Gordon all got to share Afghanistan, although he gets to win it.
 
#9
Not Syria but Somalia or West Africa possibly,,,but that's in the future....
 
#10
With the exception of our politicians wanting to big themselves up, what valid reason do we have to get involved in Syria's civil war? If they want to kill each other, let them crack on. It's no loss to us.

And if we're arming the rebels, I hope we get paid up front and in cash.
Absolutely. Why should we care if the Syrian army decide to indiscriminately shell built-up areas? All those non-combatants being maimed and killed aren't our concern.
 
#11
no one gives a shit about Somalia; its not new anymore, its too difficult to tell the badies and goodes apart and there's much better footage coming out of Syria.
 
G

goatrutar

Guest
#12
Trying not to be overly cynical, but oil and/or mineral rights seem to play a major role in decision making more than humanitarian reasons. Somalia could be next with uranium, iron ore, copper and bauxite reserves. There are also potential oil and gas reserves as well.
 
#13
Agree on the possibilities of the crabs & the andrew doing their thing as per Libya again.

Something to consider is the longer term foreign policy gains. Helping the Libyans has apparently helped our standing in the area, giving the Syrians a lift may be something the mandarins of whitehall see as a good thing for the future, making up for Blairs following of GWB all over the globe back in the noughties. Just a thought.
 
S

Screw_The_Nut

Guest
#14
same as Libya, there's no chance that we'd send in troops but i seems to me that we're going through exactly the same motions that we did with Libya. i can see why the russians and the chinese vetoed it as they know the next step would be military action/civilian protection which would effectively become a mission for regime change.
Not sure what I missed, but when did we have troops in Lybia? Apart from a few "advisors".
 
S

Screw_The_Nut

Guest
#15
Agree on the possibilities of the crabs & the andrew doing their thing as per Libya again.

Something to consider is the longer term foreign policy gains. Helping the Libyans has apparently helped our standing in the area, giving the Syrians a lift may be something the mandarins of whitehall see as a good thing for the future, making up for Blairs following of GWB all over the globe back in the noughties. Just a thought.
This could indeed be a PR coup. Having the Arab League on our side may go some way to making people forget the Iraq invasion.
 
#16
I wonder what T E Lawrence would make of it all? The end of the Sykes-Pecot abomination may be nigh.
 
#17
I wonder what T E Lawrence would make of it all? The end of the Sykes-Pecot abomination may be nigh.
Think your on to something there. Mind you I'm a fan of straight lines.
 
#18
Dear, dear, dear……… this is another unholy humanitarian mess nobody knows how to deal with. The “West” and the Arab League realized something had to be done to alleviate the suffering of the Syrian people as the Arab observers had seen with their own eyes they were being treated like mushrooms by Assad. However Russia & China decided otherwise for whatever reason, so where do we go from here? Simple, we set back and watch as the place becomes a killing field, it is the only option. If the Russians and Chinese wish to support a despotic president, let them, those that live by the sword die by the sword. The world will see those nations for what they really are; leave you to decide that answer.

As for the “West” becoming embroiled in a no-win situation – highly unlikely as unlike other countries where the west has intervened there are no substantial natural reserves, thus nobody has any real reason or interest to get involved - cynical moi – never.. However, one wrong move on the part of Assad (accidental damage to Israel) and a hoard of angry Israelis will do him and his county some serious damage, they have done it before and could do so again. Nothing the Israelis like more than an afternoon excusion into a neighbouring country, deal out some serios retribution then waddle of home for tea and medals. Similarly he might upset the Turks, then he will have problems as his with the Turks is strained to say the least. Then there is the question of a very unhappy Kurdish population, if somebody decides to arm them (Turkey probably, out of spite) a civil war will ensue, possibly genocide on an unseen scale, sure as God made little green apples. Syria is a powder keg just waiting for somebody to light the fuse, when it blows, if we are involved, we will all get covered – shit and explosives do not mix.
 
#19
A horrible "moral position" to take, but does not a continued, ‘low-level’ insurrection like Syria has been experiencing for the last 10-11 months not suit “us”?

All the time they [the Syrians] are looking inward, and are inwardly divided, they are not looking SW over the Golan Heights or West into Lebanon. They are not supplying weapons / training / intelligence to Hamas / Hezbollah / Hubba-bubba etc and are generally not making a nuisance of themselves in the outside World.

Regime Change is all well and groovy from a theoretical PoV, but with the old-style dictators of Tunisia, Egypt and indeed Libya, we "knew where we were". Opening them up to "Democracy" is not a good idea in a region where, either big "D" or little "d" democracy, has never been in vogue and the population does not know what to do.

Admittedly living under a dictatorship would not be that much fun, but when that is all you have ever known and in the case of Egypt has been pretty much the one form of government, under different names, for the last 4,000 years, suddenly removing the “safety net” leads to all sorts of unintended consequences; hands up who wanted a nice, liberal democracy in Egypt and was “shocked, surprised and saddened” to see the Muslim Brotherhood crawl out from under their respective stones and take power… Oops… Want to see Assad deposed and another bunch of formerly banned religious nutters and bigots take power? It seems it’s always groups like the Muslim Brotherhood that have the numbers and the “passion” to move on to Government as opposed to the nice, old professor at Cairo or Damascus University that has been writing papers about the democratic future of the Arabs for the last forty years…

Also; Israel must be crapping themselves seeing, one by one, the former strong men falling and potentially less stable and more hostile governments forming to fill the vacuum. What an irony if the “Arab Spring” was to turn into the “Arab (Nuclear) Winter”?

In short, the Chinese and Russian veto at the UN (whilst almost certainly in their own interest and having nothing to do with “not wanting to take sides in a Civil War) may well have done us a favour – without a UN Resolution it will be difficult (not impossible, but more difficult) for “the West” to intervene in Syria militarily even if it was just lobbing LGBs in from a-far.

We can just sit back, let the Syrian state muddle along with the current level of violence to keep them occupied and, genuinely, say “We cannot do anything”.

Expect the arms exports from Russia to the government of Syria to continue and remember that in the back of their minds both Russia and China are keenly aware that whilst “Syria today” may not be “us tomorrow” it could very well be “us next month” and the last thing they would want then would be any UN snooping and interfering in their internal affairs.
 
#20
there is the question of a very unhappy Kurdish population, if somebody decides to arm them (Turkey probably, out of spite) a civil war will ensue
I can't see the Turks queuing up to arm the Kurds, somehow.
 

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