Statisticians Calculate Probability Of Another 9/11 Attack

Discussion in 'The Intelligence Cell' started by Canader, Sep 7, 2012.

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  1. Stats are great! 9 out of 10 people enjoy gangrape.

    Gen up!
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  2. You mean they tossed a coin?

  3. Surely that's impossible. I distinctly remember both towers dissapearing in a cloud of dust.
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  4. I do like the way claims are made in the article

    Statisticians Calculate Probability Of Another 9/11 Attack - Technology Review

    So statisticians have saved lives by pointing out that there has been a history of earthquakes in Japan and other areas in the earthquake belt, Then suggested that you might want to build accordingly. They got the heights of the sunami wrong for the Japanese earthquake, hence all the fuss with the nuclear power station.

    Like economists and climate change scientists, they are great at pointing out the bleeding obvious, but not so good at predicting/guessing what will actually happen, and where, and how much. Especially if it happens somewhere unexpected.

    But by the cringe, isn't there hindsight 20/20?

    I predict famine in Africa this year, due to poor rainfall and unexpected crop failures exacerbated by civil unrest.

    They didn't predict the tube bombings, or any similar event, or Norway. Professional guessers.
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  5. 50/50 is a pretty crap guess, everything exists in the 50/50 state until we observe it.
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  6. I think it's around about 100% certain that some statiscian will come up with some more dguess work within the next 5 weeks
  7. 80% of statistics are made up...
  8. Percentage is crap.

    Frequency is the what you need to pay attention to in real life.
  9. The possibility of another 9/11 attack in the next 10 years is 50Hz.

    Nah, doesn't work.
  10. **** sake. Nobody innovates anymore.

    There was only one 9/11, the original and the best.
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  11. HHH

    HHH LE

    The chances of another 9/11 is 81%
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  12. 50/50? So it'll either happen or it won't.
  13. Yes but it's going to be in the next ten years, So Cameron may just get away with his 10 year no war plan.

  14. That's bollox.............................

's actualy 79.6%.