Statisticians Calculate Probability Of Another 9/11 Attack

I do like the way claims are made in the article

Statisticians Calculate Probability Of Another 9/11 Attack - Technology Review

So statisticians have saved lives by pointing out that there has been a history of earthquakes in Japan and other areas in the earthquake belt, Then suggested that you might want to build accordingly. They got the heights of the sunami wrong for the Japanese earthquake, hence all the fuss with the nuclear power station.

Like economists and climate change scientists, they are great at pointing out the bleeding obvious, but not so good at predicting/guessing what will actually happen, and where, and how much. Especially if it happens somewhere unexpected.

But by the cringe, isn't there hindsight 20/20?

I predict famine in Africa this year, due to poor rainfall and unexpected crop failures exacerbated by civil unrest.

They didn't predict the tube bombings, or any similar event, or Norway. Professional guessers.

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