South China Sea Incident: Obama Kicks Ass!

#2
I feel that Obama's heading for an upset as the Chinese will not back down on this one. The Chinese base part of their sub fleet at Hainan Island, allegedly including some boomers. The US vessel is the support mechanism for a giant towed array originally designed to track and collect ACINT on Soviet boats. It's been deployed within 100 miles of Hainan to scope out the Chinese fleet and funnily enough the Chinese don't take kindly to someone in their back yard scoping out their strategic deterrent.

And, let's be fair here, the USN would sh!t several large bricks should the Chinese equivalent get within 100 miles of the US base where they base their boomer fleet.

Besides, what's Obama going to do ? Annoy one of the countries he needs to play ball to sort out the economy ? Provoke the PLAN enough that its next overseas deployment will be to the US coast to watch the Ohios sortie ?
 
#3
If the PLAN had that capability, they'd already be doing it. No doubt they'll get that capability, and will do it, in the next decade or so.

Watching us watching them watching us watching them....the game goes on.
 
#4
The USS Chung-Hoon, now escorting the surveillance wessle.



Also capable of shooting down North Korean missile launch I believe.

China may indeed have the right to act affronted, but hey-ho what can you do, their super secret sub pen is not so secret any more... why even people using Google Earth can see lots of stuff they probably don't want people to see, so what are they going to do, ban an entire quarter of the population from using it...?

Oh hang on!!

China should be looking to find ways to state it's strategic interests in cooperation with the US and others, rather than in isolation and opposition, but given the recent spats in the high seas and the very recent sinking of "New Star" by Russia it's clear that there is still significant areas of willingness to cooperate to be addressed in China.
 
#6
In-Limbo said:
China may indeed have the right to act affronted, but hey-ho what can you do, their super secret sub pen is not so secret any more...
Jane’s published details of the sub pens at Sanyu back in 2007, IIRC. It’s probably how the USN knew to look there. :D

It’s certainly not a secret that it’s there, hell there are cruise-ships moored in the straights off it on a regular basis and surfaced subs sail right past.

In-Limbo said:
China should be looking to find ways to state it's strategic interests in cooperation with the US and others, rather than in isolation and opposition,
So you mean “If you’re not for us, you’re against us” isn’t the way things work? Have you told a policeman?

In-Limbo said:
but given the recent spats in the high seas and the very recent sinking of "New Star" by Russia it's clear that there is still significant areas of willingness to cooperate to be addressed in China.
Sometimes, mate, I think you need to check you’re on the right CEI. What on earth does the action of one Chinese vessel owned by a private company in Hong Kong have to do with national policy of the PRC?
 
#7
In-Limbo said:
China should be looking to find ways to state it's strategic interests in cooperation with the US and others, rather than in isolation and opposition, but given the recent spats in the high seas and the very recent sinking of "New Star" by Russia it's clear that there is still significant areas of willingness to cooperate to be addressed in China.
To add to carrots points

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/14/world/asia/14china.html?hp

In-Limbo read that link then even a rough tough keyboard warrior like yourself may just be able to understand why your

' China should be looking to find ways to state it's strategic interests in cooperation with the US and others, rather than in isolation and opposition'

comment makes you look like some sort of room temp IQ, burger flipping, USMC wannabe, which I know your not, but maybe its the drink eh?

China owns most of US debt, Prez Obhama NEEDS China to triple the amount of Uncle Sams I.O.U's it buys or the good old US of A is utterly, utterly****ed. Only the Chinese have the cash reserves (without printing money) to buy the $3 TRILLION of US debt that has to be sold to finance GM, Afghanistan, Wall Street, AIG, etc etc.

Or China could just dump its US holdings at 20 cents on the Dollar and let the market deal with the support structure of the US Armed forces ie the US.

Work it out trigger.
 
#8
smartascarrots said:
In-Limbo said:
but given the recent spats in the high seas and the very recent sinking of "New Star" by Russia it's clear that there is still significant areas of willingness to cooperate to be addressed in China.
Sometimes, mate, I think you need to check you’re on the right CEI. What on earth does the action of one Chinese vessel owned by a private company in Hong Kong have to do with national policy of the PRC?
:D

Effect on National Policy? About squat.

Effect on the Mentality of individuals throughout the whole length of the chinese chain of command... subject to debate.

My mind was however planted firmly in chaos theory when I threw away that observation, and as we all know major wars have been faught for far less.
 
#9
armchair_jihad said:
In-Limbo said:
China should be looking to find ways to state it's strategic interests in cooperation with the US and others, rather than in isolation and opposition, but given the recent spats in the high seas and the very recent sinking of "New Star" by Russia it's clear that there is still significant areas of willingness to cooperate to be addressed in China.
To add to carrots points

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/14/world/asia/14china.html?hp

In-Limbo read that link then even a rough tough keyboard warrior like yourself may just be able to understand why your

' China should be looking to find ways to state it's strategic interests in cooperation with the US and others, rather than in isolation and opposition'

comment makes you look like some sort of room temp IQ, burger flipping, USMC wannabe, which I know your not, but maybe its the drink eh?

China owns most of US debt, Prez Obhama NEEDS China to triple the amount of Uncle Sams I.O.U's it buys or the good old US of A is utterly, utterly****ed. Only the Chinese have the cash reserves (without printing money) to buy the $3 TRILLION of US debt that has to be sold to finance GM, Afghanistan, Wall Street, AIG, etc etc.

Or China could just dump its US holdings at 20 cents on the Dollar and let the market deal with the support structure of the US Armed forces ie the US.

Work it out trigger.
Negative Equity, the currency of the future!! :D

Could be the drink, granted, but see above for a limited rationale [??-Ed] into my thought process.

More on the nature of relaxation while the financial world is in turmoil:

Relax, China isn't going to stop buy Bonds
 
#10
Kicks ass? The Chinese harassed a US ship a little so he sent an escort to help ward them off a little. That hardly qualifies for 'kicks ass' IMHO.
 
#11
armchair_jihad said:
In-Limbo said:
China should be looking to find ways to state it's strategic interests in cooperation with the US and others, rather than in isolation and opposition, but given the recent spats in the high seas and the very recent sinking of "New Star" by Russia it's clear that there is still significant areas of willingness to cooperate to be addressed in China.
To add to carrots points

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/14/world/asia/14china.html?hp

In-Limbo read that link then even a rough tough keyboard warrior like yourself may just be able to understand why your

' China should be looking to find ways to state it's strategic interests in cooperation with the US and others, rather than in isolation and opposition'

comment makes you look like some sort of room temp IQ, burger flipping, USMC wannabe, which I know your not, but maybe its the drink eh?

China owns most of US debt, Prez Obhama NEEDS China to triple the amount of Uncle Sams I.O.U's it buys or the good old US of A is utterly, utterly****ed. Only the Chinese have the cash reserves (without printing money) to buy the $3 TRILLION of US debt that has to be sold to finance GM, Afghanistan, Wall Street, AIG, etc etc.

Or China could just dump its US holdings at 20 cents on the Dollar and let the market deal with the support structure of the US Armed forces ie the US.

Work it out trigger.
If they did that, watch China implode as the US stops importing Chinese crap, soon followed by the rest of the world when the US economy drags it down as well.

Anyone who thinks China will do that clearly hasn't seen the cartoon where one of the charactors shoves another of a cliff, starts laughing at his victory, and then slowly casts his eye down to see the chain on his leg that attaches him to the guy he's just pushed off the cliff.

In any case, their is a lot of cash in the world right now with nowhere to go that isn't either a massive risk or offers no return - the US government is a tempting investment prospect for many.

And at the end of the day, it stops any idea of China starting a fight. How many seconds do you think it would take congress to declare all Chinese holdings invalid?
 
#12
In-Limbo said:
Effect on the Mentality of individuals throughout the whole length of the chinese chain of command... subject to debate.
Fair enough, let’s debate it. What is it you think is going to happen in the minds of the PLAN head-shed that means the sinking of one piddly little cargo ship will cause them to start WW3? Don’t you think if they felt that strongly about it, there would be ships harassing the Russian navy?

parapauk said:
In any case, their is a lot of cash in the world right now with nowhere to go that isn't either a massive risk or offers no return - the US government is a tempting investment prospect for many. And at the end of the day, it stops any idea of China starting a fight. How many seconds do you think it would take congress to declare all Chinese holdings invalid?
I think you’ve undone your own argument there. Who’d see the US as such a tempting investment if they’d just seen the US arbitrarily seize or invalidate another nation’s assets just for not toeing their line? After all, it was fear of just exactly that sort of thing that stopped people investing in China up to the 80s.

The Yanks aren’t daft: they know that microseconds after doing something like that, the dollar would be worth shit on the international market as every other holder dashed to unload their risk.
 
#13
smartascarrots said:
In-Limbo said:
Effect on the Mentality of individuals throughout the whole length of the chinese chain of command... subject to debate.
Fair enough, let’s debate it. What is it you think is going to happen in the minds of the PLAN head-shed that means the sinking of one piddly little cargo ship will cause them to start WW3? Don’t you think if they felt that strongly about it, there would be ships harassing the Russian navy?

parapauk said:
In any case, their is a lot of cash in the world right now with nowhere to go that isn't either a massive risk or offers no return - the US government is a tempting investment prospect for many. And at the end of the day, it stops any idea of China starting a fight. How many seconds do you think it would take congress to declare all Chinese holdings invalid?
I think you’ve undone your own argument there. Who’d see the US as such a tempting investment if they’d just seen the US arbitrarily seize or invalidate another nation’s assets just for not toeing their line? After all, it was fear of just exactly that sort of thing that stopped people investing in China up to the 80s.
I'm not talking about not toeing the line, I'm talking about in the event of a a major war. And they wouldn't have to invalidate them - they could just freeze them as long as was needed. And I think investors could tell the difference between a targeted and general invalidation. Pulling the plug on someone who is shooting at you is a bit different from seizing any random assets.
 
#14
parapauk said:
I'm not talking about not toeing the line, I'm talking about in the event of a a major war. And they wouldn't have to invalidate them - they could just freeze them as long as was needed. And I think investors could tell the difference between a targeted and general invalidation. Pulling the plug on someone who is shooting at you is a bit different from seizing any random assets.
You might not be, but plenty of others are and do. Do you honestly thing any Sovereign Investment Fund manager is really going to give a toss whether the Yanks had good reason or not, even if they could agree with the US's definition of 'good reason'? They're not going to bugger around with their nation's finances somewhere they might disappear the moment Congress began to feel a bit miffed with their country.

What you were talking about and what you said - "And at the end of the day, it stops any idea of China starting a fight. How many seconds do you think it would take congress to declare all Chinese holdings invalid?" - was that the US could impound or invalidate China's debt holdings to stop them starting a war. Are you genuinely trying to say that PRC is about to launch an attack on the US and only the power of the dollar is holding them back?
 
#15
smartascarrots said:
parapauk said:
I'm not talking about not toeing the line, I'm talking about in the event of a a major war. And they wouldn't have to invalidate them - they could just freeze them as long as was needed. And I think investors could tell the difference between a targeted and general invalidation. Pulling the plug on someone who is shooting at you is a bit different from seizing any random assets.
You might not be, but plenty of others are and do. Do you honestly thing any Sovereign Investment Fund manager is really going to give a toss whether the Yanks had good reason or not, even if they could agree with the US's definition of 'good reason'? They're not going to bugger around with their nation's finances somewhere they might disappear the moment Congress began to feel a bit miffed with their country.

What you were talking about and what you said - "And at the end of the day, it stops any idea of China starting a fight. How many seconds do you think it would take congress to declare all Chinese holdings invalid?" - was that the US could impound or invalidate China's debt holdings to stop them starting a war. Are you genuinely trying to say that PRC is about to launch an attack on the US and only the power of the dollar is holding them back?
Again, I think 'a bit miffed' is somewhat understating the curcumstances in which any of what I've said might take place. And no, I don't think an attack is coming, but at at the end of the day if it was the prospect of both risking losing AND giving up a trillion dollars would factor into their thoughts.
 
#16
smartascarrots said:
In-Limbo said:
Effect on the Mentality of individuals throughout the whole length of the chinese chain of command... subject to debate.
Fair enough, let’s debate it. What is it you think is going to happen in the minds of the PLAN head-shed that means the sinking of one piddly little cargo ship will cause them to start WW3? Don’t you think if they felt that strongly about it, there would be ships harassing the Russian navy?


These piddly little 'cargo ships' are getting up to all sorts of mischief as of late. Exactly how involved and to what degree is the PLAN head-shed actually involved?
 
#17
parapauk said:
Again, I think 'a bit miffed' is somewhat understating the curcumstances in which any of what I've said might take place. And no, I don't think an attack is coming, but at at the end of the day if it was the prospect of both risking losing AND giving up a trillion dollars would factor into their thoughts.
At the end of the day, if the prospect of giant blue lobsters from the planet Zogg ruling humanity was a prospect, that would be factored into their thoughts as well. But since it's no more likely than PRC starting a war right now, it wouldn't be.

So why bring it up?
 
#18
smartascarrots said:
parapauk said:
Again, I think 'a bit miffed' is somewhat understating the curcumstances in which any of what I've said might take place. And no, I don't think an attack is coming, but at at the end of the day if it was the prospect of both risking losing AND giving up a trillion dollars would factor into their thoughts.
At the end of the day, if the prospect of giant blue lobsters from the planet Zogg ruling humanity was a prospect, that would be factored into their thoughts as well. But since it's no more likely than PRC starting a war right now, it wouldn't be.

So why bring it up?
Because it's the thought at the back of most of our minds. If this were the US and Chile, we wouldn't have bothered with this thread.
 
#19
In-Limbo said:


These piddly little 'cargo ships' are getting up to all sorts of mischief as of late.
Err, that would appear to be a maritime protection vessel. It's part of the PLAN.

As you seem to be trying to draw a parallel to the New Star I think it's important that every one knows one is a vessel in the Chinese Navy and the other a private cargo vessel owned by a company that's been based in Hong Kong since before the handover.
 
#20
parapauk said:
Because it's the thought at the back of most of our minds. If this were the US and Chile, we wouldn't have bothered with this thread.
How very democratic of you, deciding what other people are thinking for them. It saves them all that effort.

Most of the comments on this thread seem to me to be more split between 'yawn' and 'pointless posturing, it'll all blow over'.
 

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