South Africa gone down the Zimbabwe route.

Catch the game at Woodcutter's in Hout Bay, locals bar with a few ex-pats, less travel and if you avoid their steaks and fish and chips, which is unlikely, go for the seafood or Kingclip at the Chapman's Peak Hotel.

Sent from my G8141 using Tapatalk
 
Catch the game at Woodcutter's in Hout Bay, locals bar with a few ex-pats, less travel and if you avoid their steaks and fish and chips, which is unlikely, go for the seafood or Kingclip at the Chapman's Peak Hotel.

Sent from my G8141 using Tapatalk
I'd go with that.
Long schlep in from (and back to) Hout Bay, and you don't want to be on the roads in an evening post a SA rugby game.
 
South Africa farm SEIZURE HORROR: List of white farmers facing expropriation 'exposed'

That black South Africans wish to go ahead with land seizures has been openly declared as a policy they wish to pursue.
South Africa votes to seize land from white farmers

Some thoughts on the matter.

"A British legal expert opinion on expropriation of land

Response by Mark Philip Malcolm Horn - London Barrister.

No one does business with a thief, and no one extends credit to a thief.

"You cannot have land expropriation without compensation. It is illegal in international law. It is contrary to a dozen treaties that South Africa has signed and ratified.
As such, it is a principle that is also enshrined in South African domestic law. You cannot change the Constitution therefore to make it legal - Treaty law is superior law, it always applies.

The proposal, if directed at land held by the white community, would also contravene half a dozen international treaties, notably those condemning apartheid, that South Africa since the ANC took power, has signed and ratified.

The same argument applies above, but now with the ironic twist that any such initiative would result in the ANC being condemned under international law for actions that the world would condemn as being racist.

So no, it cannot be done. When Mugabe tried this, the point was litigated. These were the legal conclusions. Now, Mugabe pushed ahead, so what happened?

Well, the claims for illegal expropriation still are valid in law - at some point the Zimbabwean Government will need to pay them.

The consequence of their illegal policy is not forgotten with time. If they ever want to be re-integrated into the global community, they will need to pay.

As to the consequences of such a policy - Zimbabwe is a good example. There are no sanction on Zimbabwe. That is a myth. The only sanctions are those targeted on Mugabe and a few of his associates, and they are in place because of human rights abuses.

The economy has crashed, there is a 90% unemployment rate, for the very simple fact that Zimbabwe has shown itself to be a thief. No one does business with a thief, and no one extends credit to a thief.

You cannot run a modern economy without access to the international market, and for that you need credit. The Zimbabwean economy has declined by 70% from what it was at independence simply because no one does business with a thief.

So what would be the consequence of a policy of expropriation without compensation in South Africa? Well, as noted, such a policy would be illegal.

The international community will immediately take note that South Africa has become a rogue state. That is not too much to worry, about, its just political. There are plenty of rogue states around the world.

What would happen, however, in terms of South Africa's access to the international markets is of far more concern. South Africa would have signaled that property rights are insecure. That will mean that international investment in South Africa would come to a screeching halt.

This has been happening for many years in any event - that is why South Africa is now ranked no. 7 in gold mining, when it used to be no. 1.

It is why South Africa has a 27% unemployment rate, and a 50% youth unemployment rate. So the response could well be: "who cares, we do not need their investment". That may well indeed be true.

But, that is not where the real crisis occurs. South Africa needs access to international financial markets because it has a trade and budget deficit. It needs access to international financial markets to pay for its bloated public sector, and to pay social grants to all those unemployed people.

To raise that money, it needs the banks. Now this is where the consequences of a policy of expropriation without compensation hits home.

Banks have, as is the nature of banking, highly leveraged Balance Sheets. They lend as multiples of the assets they actually have. They need to conform with the Basel ratio's. If they have a rise in bad debt, they can easily wipe out their Balance Sheets - they then become bankrupt, and they collapse.

So what do you think will happen if land is expropriated without compensation to the Banks? The answer is, they will see a rise in bad debt, and they will collapse.

That is not the end of the story. South Africa has seen its black population rise from approximately 2.5 m in the mid 19th century, to its current level of 50 m.
The 2.5 m may be taken as the sustainable level of the black population without the benefits of colonialism, and of modern agriculture.

That 2.5 m number is important, because only 13% of South Africa is suited for agriculture, and only 3% is high quality agricultural land.
The vast majority of South African agricultural land requires the application of modern technology.

Farming in South Africa is highly capital intensive. Farmers depend on bank lending not only to buy their farms, but also to provide essential working capital.

So, what happens if the land is expropriated without compensation, if the banks then collapse?
Well it means no one is able to provide the essential working capital. If the farms then collapse, then up to 95% of the existing black population is at risk of starvation.

The banks cannot access international markets, international lenders will not lend, South Africa then descends into chaos.
At point, the international community would probably intervene military to restore order. As such, South Africa would have become yet another Failed State in the traditional African mold."


A FARMER GIVES HIS THOUGHTS ON THE MATTER: WHAT WILL HAPPEN WHEN THE ANC TAKES MY FARM

I have no doubt that the ANC Govt has given a lot of thought to the topic of Expropriation Without Compensation (EWC) however I think they might not have fully comprehended the consequences of such a policy. As a farmer I thought it might be useful to enlighten them as to the course of action I would take once my farm is targeted for EWC. Before I continue I would like to emphasize that this is not a threat nor delivered with the mindset of a saboteur, it is merely a description of the sequence of events that would unfold in the event of such a policy being enforced.

• I would immediately identify all the moveable assets on my farm and start selling them or placing them in a suitable storage facility. I list these below simply to demonstrate to non-farmers what makes a farm functional and profitable. The first to go would be all the livestock followed by all the machinery including tractors, pumps, silos, centre pivots, electrical transformers, irrigation equipment, water troughs, implements and piping. I would strip the dairy and sell the bulk tanks, milking machines etc. I would take down all internal fencing on the farm and recoup what I could. All sheds would be disassembled and all houses and other buildings would be stripped of anything sellable, including their roofs.

• I would disconnect/cancel the 5 Eskom points on the farm and obtain refunds on the deposits I’ve paid on them.

• I would re-trench all my staff and pay them off in accordance with the Labour Act. I would then strip all the staff accommodation on the farm and sell what I could.

• With the sale of all my livestock and cessation of the farming operation I would immediately default on the R5.5m I owe FNB but I wouldn’t worry as the farm is the loan’s security and I don’t really own anything else.

• When the day came to leave the farm I would hand the ‘keys’ over to the new ‘owners’ but I’m not quite sure what they would do as there’d be no roof on the farm house and there would be nothing to ‘farm’ on the farm. It would just be a piece of land, but that’s ok because the ANC says owning land makes you wealthy.

When you take the sequence of events described above and multiply it on a national scale you see another sequence of events unfolding.

• The new ‘farmers’ arrive on the farm but there is no livestock, machinery or working capital to continue the operation.

• They go to the banks to borrow money (A good farming habit) but the banks are sitting on a R160 Billion defaulted debt book from the ‘old’ farmers and won’t lend a cent to agriculture. They’re fighting for their own survival now.

• The Govt doesn’t have the money, which would be far more than the R160 Billion mentioned above, to re-capitalise and finance all the farms so most of the farms either fall derelict or are farmed at a subsistence level.

• There is a massive but short-term surplus of Beef, Sheep and Poultry products due to the sell-off by the previous farmers. This brings prices down drastically in the short term but eventually the meat runs out and there is nothing to replace it. Meat prices skyrocket.

• Dairy products cease almost immediately after the livestock cull/sell-off and within weeks there is a critical shortage of all dairy products. Importing is impossible due to the Govt’s actions which have decimated the value of the Rand.

• Maize lasts quite a bit longer and with careful rationing will endure until the next season but there is no crop in the ground for next year due to the new ‘farmers’ lack of machinery, experience and access to credit.

• All agricultural Co-Ops and suppliers very quickly cease operation and/or go bankrupt and re-trench all their staff. They cannot survive by selling single bags of seed and fertilizer to subsistence farmers.

• All processors of agricultural products such as meat, dairy and maize cease operation due to lack of product and re-trench all their staff.

• Rural Municipalities start to feel the pinch as there are no longer any farmers paying rates and the agricultural businesses in the towns have also sold up and left.

• Smaller rural towns that depended on agriculture eventually collapse and rural communities are forced to travel long distances to major centres to find ever dwindling supplies.

• Ironically the EWC movement creates more Urbanisation as the rural folk flee the agricultural desert that has been created.

• All food dependent enterprises such as fast food chains and restaurants either disappear or are greatly reduced…along with all their staff.

• With all the unemployed farmworkers, as well as those who have lost their jobs from other sectors, there is an unsustainable demand on the UIF system and it soon collapses.

• The Social Grant system teeters as the ripple effect from the agricultural collapse enters all sectors and the tax-base is shredded.

• Food riots become common and genuine hunger and poverty widespread.

• Unlike Zimbabwe the South African population has nowhere to run.

• With the White Farmer no longer an available target and the true ‘value’ of land revealed in all its fallacy the masses turn on the only target they have left -The ANC."

Now the only problem is that this is the situation logically laid out, but, as has been historically seen across the Continent African Governments seem not to deal in logic.

The sad fact is that in the majority of cases they appear to act upon impulse, hence the dire state of most Sub Saharan countries.

It would appear that despite the example of Rhodesia/Zimbabwe the seizure of white owned land may well now be repeated in South Africa, with probably the same result.

Zambia, who has invited white farmers to go there, appears to be better placed to feed its population.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/322676437_Zambia_Agriculture_Status_Report_2017
 
One major difference, when the Israelites decided to go for a walk, they had Big G on their side. A few years later and lots of hard work they have a nice country, but sh1tty neighbours. The Med sea pedestrians have dodgy boats and no welcoming committee, those that do make it end up getting taken for a ride in either Italy, Greece or Spain. It doesn't make the news much, but some find it so bad that they want to go back to Africa.

My bold... sorry to disagree with you but they are far more likely to turn up out of the back of a lorry in various service stations around the country here in the UK and all the moronic "no borders" types & their ilk will try to ensure that our gutless government looks after their every need out of the pockets of the tax payers
 
South Africa farm SEIZURE HORROR: List of white farmers facing expropriation 'exposed'

That black South Africans wish to go ahead with land seizures has been openly declared as a policy they wish to pursue.
South Africa votes to seize land from white farmers

Some thoughts on the matter.

"A British legal expert opinion on expropriation of land

Response by Mark Philip Malcolm Horn - London Barrister.


No one does business with a thief, and no one extends credit to a thief.

"You cannot have land expropriation without compensation. It is illegal in international law. It is contrary to a dozen treaties that South Africa has signed and ratified.
As such, it is a principle that is also enshrined in South African domestic law. You cannot change the Constitution therefore to make it legal - Treaty law is superior law, it always applies.


The proposal, if directed at land held by the white community, would also contravene half a dozen international treaties, notably those condemning apartheid, that South Africa since the ANC took power, has signed and ratified.

The same argument applies above, but now with the ironic twist that any such initiative would result in the ANC being condemned under international law for actions that the world would condemn as being racist.

So no, it cannot be done. When Mugabe tried this, the point was litigated. These were the legal conclusions. Now, Mugabe pushed ahead, so what happened?

Well, the claims for illegal expropriation still are valid in law - at some point the Zimbabwean Government will need to pay them.

The consequence of their illegal policy is not forgotten with time. If they ever want to be re-integrated into the global community, they will need to pay.

As to the consequences of such a policy - Zimbabwe is a good example. There are no sanction on Zimbabwe. That is a myth. The only sanctions are those targeted on Mugabe and a few of his associates, and they are in place because of human rights abuses.

The economy has crashed, there is a 90% unemployment rate, for the very simple fact that Zimbabwe has shown itself to be a thief. No one does business with a thief, and no one extends credit to a thief.

You cannot run a modern economy without access to the international market, and for that you need credit. The Zimbabwean economy has declined by 70% from what it was at independence simply because no one does business with a thief.

So what would be the consequence of a policy of expropriation without compensation in South Africa? Well, as noted, such a policy would be illegal.

The international community will immediately take note that South Africa has become a rogue state. That is not too much to worry, about, its just political. There are plenty of rogue states around the world.

What would happen, however, in terms of South Africa's access to the international markets is of far more concern. South Africa would have signaled that property rights are insecure. That will mean that international investment in South Africa would come to a screeching halt.

This has been happening for many years in any event - that is why South Africa is now ranked no. 7 in gold mining, when it used to be no. 1.

It is why South Africa has a 27% unemployment rate, and a 50% youth unemployment rate. So the response could well be: "who cares, we do not need their investment". That may well indeed be true.

But, that is not where the real crisis occurs. South Africa needs access to international financial markets because it has a trade and budget deficit. It needs access to international financial markets to pay for its bloated public sector, and to pay social grants to all those unemployed people.

To raise that money, it needs the banks. Now this is where the consequences of a policy of expropriation without compensation hits home.

Banks have, as is the nature of banking, highly leveraged Balance Sheets. They lend as multiples of the assets they actually have. They need to conform with the Basel ratio's. If they have a rise in bad debt, they can easily wipe out their Balance Sheets - they then become bankrupt, and they collapse.

So what do you think will happen if land is expropriated without compensation to the Banks? The answer is, they will see a rise in bad debt, and they will collapse.

That is not the end of the story. South Africa has seen its black population rise from approximately 2.5 m in the mid 19th century, to its current level of 50 m.
The 2.5 m may be taken as the sustainable level of the black population without the benefits of colonialism, and of modern agriculture.


That 2.5 m number is important, because only 13% of South Africa is suited for agriculture, and only 3% is high quality agricultural land.
The vast majority of South African agricultural land requires the application of modern technology.


Farming in South Africa is highly capital intensive. Farmers depend on bank lending not only to buy their farms, but also to provide essential working capital.

So, what happens if the land is expropriated without compensation, if the banks then collapse?
Well it means no one is able to provide the essential working capital. If the farms then collapse, then up to 95% of the existing black population is at risk of starvation.


The banks cannot access international markets, international lenders will not lend, South Africa then descends into chaos.
At point, the international community would probably intervene military to restore order. As such, South Africa would have become yet another Failed State in the traditional African mold."



A FARMER GIVES HIS THOUGHTS ON THE MATTER: WHAT WILL HAPPEN WHEN THE ANC TAKES MY FARM

I have no doubt that the ANC Govt has given a lot of thought to the topic of Expropriation Without Compensation (EWC) however I think they might not have fully comprehended the consequences of such a policy. As a farmer I thought it might be useful to enlighten them as to the course of action I would take once my farm is targeted for EWC. Before I continue I would like to emphasize that this is not a threat nor delivered with the mindset of a saboteur, it is merely a description of the sequence of events that would unfold in the event of such a policy being enforced.

• I would immediately identify all the moveable assets on my farm and start selling them or placing them in a suitable storage facility. I list these below simply to demonstrate to non-farmers what makes a farm functional and profitable. The first to go would be all the livestock followed by all the machinery including tractors, pumps, silos, centre pivots, electrical transformers, irrigation equipment, water troughs, implements and piping. I would strip the dairy and sell the bulk tanks, milking machines etc. I would take down all internal fencing on the farm and recoup what I could. All sheds would be disassembled and all houses and other buildings would be stripped of anything sellable, including their roofs.

• I would disconnect/cancel the 5 Eskom points on the farm and obtain refunds on the deposits I’ve paid on them.

• I would re-trench all my staff and pay them off in accordance with the Labour Act. I would then strip all the staff accommodation on the farm and sell what I could.

• With the sale of all my livestock and cessation of the farming operation I would immediately default on the R5.5m I owe FNB but I wouldn’t worry as the farm is the loan’s security and I don’t really own anything else.

• When the day came to leave the farm I would hand the ‘keys’ over to the new ‘owners’ but I’m not quite sure what they would do as there’d be no roof on the farm house and there would be nothing to ‘farm’ on the farm. It would just be a piece of land, but that’s ok because the ANC says owning land makes you wealthy.

When you take the sequence of events described above and multiply it on a national scale you see another sequence of events unfolding.

• The new ‘farmers’ arrive on the farm but there is no livestock, machinery or working capital to continue the operation.

• They go to the banks to borrow money (A good farming habit) but the banks are sitting on a R160 Billion defaulted debt book from the ‘old’ farmers and won’t lend a cent to agriculture. They’re fighting for their own survival now.

• The Govt doesn’t have the money, which would be far more than the R160 Billion mentioned above, to re-capitalise and finance all the farms so most of the farms either fall derelict or are farmed at a subsistence level.

• There is a massive but short-term surplus of Beef, Sheep and Poultry products due to the sell-off by the previous farmers. This brings prices down drastically in the short term but eventually the meat runs out and there is nothing to replace it. Meat prices skyrocket.

• Dairy products cease almost immediately after the livestock cull/sell-off and within weeks there is a critical shortage of all dairy products. Importing is impossible due to the Govt’s actions which have decimated the value of the Rand.

• Maize lasts quite a bit longer and with careful rationing will endure until the next season but there is no crop in the ground for next year due to the new ‘farmers’ lack of machinery, experience and access to credit.

• All agricultural Co-Ops and suppliers very quickly cease operation and/or go bankrupt and re-trench all their staff. They cannot survive by selling single bags of seed and fertilizer to subsistence farmers.

• All processors of agricultural products such as meat, dairy and maize cease operation due to lack of product and re-trench all their staff.

• Rural Municipalities start to feel the pinch as there are no longer any farmers paying rates and the agricultural businesses in the towns have also sold up and left.

• Smaller rural towns that depended on agriculture eventually collapse and rural communities are forced to travel long distances to major centres to find ever dwindling supplies.

• Ironically the EWC movement creates more Urbanisation as the rural folk flee the agricultural desert that has been created.

• All food dependent enterprises such as fast food chains and restaurants either disappear or are greatly reduced…along with all their staff.

• With all the unemployed farmworkers, as well as those who have lost their jobs from other sectors, there is an unsustainable demand on the UIF system and it soon collapses.

• The Social Grant system teeters as the ripple effect from the agricultural collapse enters all sectors and the tax-base is shredded.

• Food riots become common and genuine hunger and poverty widespread.

• Unlike Zimbabwe the South African population has nowhere to run.

• With the White Farmer no longer an available target and the true ‘value’ of land revealed in all its fallacy the masses turn on the only target they have left -The ANC."

Now the only problem is that this is the situation logically laid out, but, as has been historically seen across the Continent African Governments seem not to deal in logic.

The sad fact is that in the majority of cases they appear to act upon impulse, hence the dire state of most Sub Saharan countries.

It would appear that despite the example of Rhodesia/Zimbabwe the seizure of white owned land may well now be repeated in South Africa, with probably the same result.

Zambia, who has invited white farmers to go there, appears to be better placed to feed its population.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/322676437_Zambia_Agriculture_Status_Report_2017
I think that Mark Philip Malcolm Horn - London Barrister is talking out of his backside. Has compensation been paid to all the people who have been kicked out of other African countries who got their "freedom" from the nasty colonialists, all the Ugandan & Kenyan Asians, the numerous other Europeans in Angola, Mozambique, Congo, Rhodesia? I think little, if any, has or will be paid by these greedy, corrupt & ruthless dictators!
So I think there is little hope of any realistic compensation being paid to white South Africans, much easier to arrange for something fatal & terminal to happen to them as has been happening to hundreds of isolated farmers ever since "Freedom" was declared by saint Mandela. :-(
As for the Zambian article.. I hope you got "written permission" before you posted it!
Copyright © 2017 by Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute.All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying, recording, or other electronic or mechanical methods, without the prior written permission of the publisher, except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical reviews and certain other non commercial uses permitted by copyright law. Zambia Agriculture Status Report 2017 Antony Chapoto, Brian Chisanga and Mulako Kabisa

(PDF) Zambia Agriculture Status Report 2017. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/322676437_Zambia_Agriculture_Status_Report_2017 [accessed Aug 16 2018].
 
South Africa farm SEIZURE HORROR: List of white farmers facing expropriation 'exposed'

That black South Africans wish to go ahead with land seizures has been openly declared as a policy they wish to pursue.
South Africa votes to seize land from white farmers

Some thoughts on the matter.

"A British legal expert opinion on expropriation of land

Response by Mark Philip Malcolm Horn - London Barrister.


No one does business with a thief, and no one extends credit to a thief.

"You cannot have land expropriation without compensation. It is illegal in international law. It is contrary to a dozen treaties that South Africa has signed and ratified.
As such, it is a principle that is also enshrined in South African domestic law. You cannot change the Constitution therefore to make it legal - Treaty law is superior law, it always applies.


The proposal, if directed at land held by the white community, would also contravene half a dozen international treaties, notably those condemning apartheid, that South Africa since the ANC took power, has signed and ratified.

The same argument applies above, but now with the ironic twist that any such initiative would result in the ANC being condemned under international law for actions that the world would condemn as being racist.

So no, it cannot be done. When Mugabe tried this, the point was litigated. These were the legal conclusions. Now, Mugabe pushed ahead, so what happened?

Well, the claims for illegal expropriation still are valid in law - at some point the Zimbabwean Government will need to pay them.

The consequence of their illegal policy is not forgotten with time. If they ever want to be re-integrated into the global community, they will need to pay.

As to the consequences of such a policy - Zimbabwe is a good example. There are no sanction on Zimbabwe. That is a myth. The only sanctions are those targeted on Mugabe and a few of his associates, and they are in place because of human rights abuses.

The economy has crashed, there is a 90% unemployment rate, for the very simple fact that Zimbabwe has shown itself to be a thief. No one does business with a thief, and no one extends credit to a thief.

You cannot run a modern economy without access to the international market, and for that you need credit. The Zimbabwean economy has declined by 70% from what it was at independence simply because no one does business with a thief.

So what would be the consequence of a policy of expropriation without compensation in South Africa? Well, as noted, such a policy would be illegal.

The international community will immediately take note that South Africa has become a rogue state. That is not too much to worry, about, its just political. There are plenty of rogue states around the world.

What would happen, however, in terms of South Africa's access to the international markets is of far more concern. South Africa would have signaled that property rights are insecure. That will mean that international investment in South Africa would come to a screeching halt.

This has been happening for many years in any event - that is why South Africa is now ranked no. 7 in gold mining, when it used to be no. 1.

It is why South Africa has a 27% unemployment rate, and a 50% youth unemployment rate. So the response could well be: "who cares, we do not need their investment". That may well indeed be true.

But, that is not where the real crisis occurs. South Africa needs access to international financial markets because it has a trade and budget deficit. It needs access to international financial markets to pay for its bloated public sector, and to pay social grants to all those unemployed people.

To raise that money, it needs the banks. Now this is where the consequences of a policy of expropriation without compensation hits home.

Banks have, as is the nature of banking, highly leveraged Balance Sheets. They lend as multiples of the assets they actually have. They need to conform with the Basel ratio's. If they have a rise in bad debt, they can easily wipe out their Balance Sheets - they then become bankrupt, and they collapse.

So what do you think will happen if land is expropriated without compensation to the Banks? The answer is, they will see a rise in bad debt, and they will collapse.

That is not the end of the story. South Africa has seen its black population rise from approximately 2.5 m in the mid 19th century, to its current level of 50 m.
The 2.5 m may be taken as the sustainable level of the black population without the benefits of colonialism, and of modern agriculture.


That 2.5 m number is important, because only 13% of South Africa is suited for agriculture, and only 3% is high quality agricultural land.
The vast majority of South African agricultural land requires the application of modern technology.


Farming in South Africa is highly capital intensive. Farmers depend on bank lending not only to buy their farms, but also to provide essential working capital.

So, what happens if the land is expropriated without compensation, if the banks then collapse?
Well it means no one is able to provide the essential working capital. If the farms then collapse, then up to 95% of the existing black population is at risk of starvation.


The banks cannot access international markets, international lenders will not lend, South Africa then descends into chaos.
At point, the international community would probably intervene military to restore order. As such, South Africa would have become yet another Failed State in the traditional African mold."



A FARMER GIVES HIS THOUGHTS ON THE MATTER: WHAT WILL HAPPEN WHEN THE ANC TAKES MY FARM

I have no doubt that the ANC Govt has given a lot of thought to the topic of Expropriation Without Compensation (EWC) however I think they might not have fully comprehended the consequences of such a policy. As a farmer I thought it might be useful to enlighten them as to the course of action I would take once my farm is targeted for EWC. Before I continue I would like to emphasize that this is not a threat nor delivered with the mindset of a saboteur, it is merely a description of the sequence of events that would unfold in the event of such a policy being enforced.

• I would immediately identify all the moveable assets on my farm and start selling them or placing them in a suitable storage facility. I list these below simply to demonstrate to non-farmers what makes a farm functional and profitable. The first to go would be all the livestock followed by all the machinery including tractors, pumps, silos, centre pivots, electrical transformers, irrigation equipment, water troughs, implements and piping. I would strip the dairy and sell the bulk tanks, milking machines etc. I would take down all internal fencing on the farm and recoup what I could. All sheds would be disassembled and all houses and other buildings would be stripped of anything sellable, including their roofs.

• I would disconnect/cancel the 5 Eskom points on the farm and obtain refunds on the deposits I’ve paid on them.

• I would re-trench all my staff and pay them off in accordance with the Labour Act. I would then strip all the staff accommodation on the farm and sell what I could.

• With the sale of all my livestock and cessation of the farming operation I would immediately default on the R5.5m I owe FNB but I wouldn’t worry as the farm is the loan’s security and I don’t really own anything else.

• When the day came to leave the farm I would hand the ‘keys’ over to the new ‘owners’ but I’m not quite sure what they would do as there’d be no roof on the farm house and there would be nothing to ‘farm’ on the farm. It would just be a piece of land, but that’s ok because the ANC says owning land makes you wealthy.

When you take the sequence of events described above and multiply it on a national scale you see another sequence of events unfolding.

• The new ‘farmers’ arrive on the farm but there is no livestock, machinery or working capital to continue the operation.

• They go to the banks to borrow money (A good farming habit) but the banks are sitting on a R160 Billion defaulted debt book from the ‘old’ farmers and won’t lend a cent to agriculture. They’re fighting for their own survival now.

• The Govt doesn’t have the money, which would be far more than the R160 Billion mentioned above, to re-capitalise and finance all the farms so most of the farms either fall derelict or are farmed at a subsistence level.

• There is a massive but short-term surplus of Beef, Sheep and Poultry products due to the sell-off by the previous farmers. This brings prices down drastically in the short term but eventually the meat runs out and there is nothing to replace it. Meat prices skyrocket.

• Dairy products cease almost immediately after the livestock cull/sell-off and within weeks there is a critical shortage of all dairy products. Importing is impossible due to the Govt’s actions which have decimated the value of the Rand.

• Maize lasts quite a bit longer and with careful rationing will endure until the next season but there is no crop in the ground for next year due to the new ‘farmers’ lack of machinery, experience and access to credit.

• All agricultural Co-Ops and suppliers very quickly cease operation and/or go bankrupt and re-trench all their staff. They cannot survive by selling single bags of seed and fertilizer to subsistence farmers.

• All processors of agricultural products such as meat, dairy and maize cease operation due to lack of product and re-trench all their staff.

• Rural Municipalities start to feel the pinch as there are no longer any farmers paying rates and the agricultural businesses in the towns have also sold up and left.

• Smaller rural towns that depended on agriculture eventually collapse and rural communities are forced to travel long distances to major centres to find ever dwindling supplies.

• Ironically the EWC movement creates more Urbanisation as the rural folk flee the agricultural desert that has been created.

• All food dependent enterprises such as fast food chains and restaurants either disappear or are greatly reduced…along with all their staff.

• With all the unemployed farmworkers, as well as those who have lost their jobs from other sectors, there is an unsustainable demand on the UIF system and it soon collapses.

• The Social Grant system teeters as the ripple effect from the agricultural collapse enters all sectors and the tax-base is shredded.

• Food riots become common and genuine hunger and poverty widespread.

• Unlike Zimbabwe the South African population has nowhere to run.

• With the White Farmer no longer an available target and the true ‘value’ of land revealed in all its fallacy the masses turn on the only target they have left -The ANC."

Now the only problem is that this is the situation logically laid out, but, as has been historically seen across the Continent African Governments seem not to deal in logic.

The sad fact is that in the majority of cases they appear to act upon impulse, hence the dire state of most Sub Saharan countries.

It would appear that despite the example of Rhodesia/Zimbabwe the seizure of white owned land may well now be repeated in South Africa, with probably the same result.

Zambia, who has invited white farmers to go there, appears to be better placed to feed its population.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/322676437_Zambia_Agriculture_Status_Report_2017
Bet the Chinese will be right in there.
 
I think that Mark Philip Malcolm Horn - London Barrister is talking out of his backside.
You can think all you like but his conclusions are self evident. In Zim they are on the bones of their arse, and SA probably heading that way

I think there is little hope of any realistic compensation being paid to white South Africans,
Already stated, there is indeed little hope, which simply means they will end up like Zim. A basket case.

Might take a little longer to undo the 300 years of development, but as has have proved continent wide the indigenous population are quite capable of achieving that.

Old habits?
 
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Bet the Chinese will be right in there.
Yup, I suspect that the finance for the new farmers will be provided by the Chinese, along with Chinese agricultural equip and "advisors".

A few years of freedom then some new colonial masters. Well done.
 
They already are in Zim...and milking it big time.
And in Zambia & Malawi, de facto running a lot of the mining & rail infrastructure with an African placeman supposedly officially in charge. They have also settled quite a few farmers/smallholders to grow food they like, this started when they were building the Tan/Zam railway and hasn't stopped, which when these sell surplus on the markets do it a lot cheaper & more efficiently that the locals causing some friction! BBC News - Chinese chicken farmers ruffle Zambian feathers
snip "For many Chinese entrepreneurs, Africa is seen as a continent of opportunity. Now even small businessmen are arriving in force - and some local traders in Zambia just cannot compete".
 
South Africa farm SEIZURE HORROR: List of white farmers facing expropriation 'exposed'

That black South Africans wish to go ahead with land seizures has been openly declared as a policy they wish to pursue.
South Africa votes to seize land from white farmers

Some thoughts on the matter.

"A British legal expert opinion on expropriation of land

Response by Mark Philip Malcolm Horn - London Barrister.


No one does business with a thief, and no one extends credit to a thief.

"You cannot have land expropriation without compensation. It is illegal in international law. It is contrary to a dozen treaties that South Africa has signed and ratified.
As such, it is a principle that is also enshrined in South African domestic law. You cannot change the Constitution therefore to make it legal - Treaty law is superior law, it always applies.


The proposal, if directed at land held by the white community, would also contravene half a dozen international treaties, notably those condemning apartheid, that South Africa since the ANC took power, has signed and ratified.

The same argument applies above, but now with the ironic twist that any such initiative would result in the ANC being condemned under international law for actions that the world would condemn as being racist.

So no, it cannot be done. When Mugabe tried this, the point was litigated. These were the legal conclusions. Now, Mugabe pushed ahead, so what happened?

Well, the claims for illegal expropriation still are valid in law - at some point the Zimbabwean Government will need to pay them.

The consequence of their illegal policy is not forgotten with time. If they ever want to be re-integrated into the global community, they will need to pay.

As to the consequences of such a policy - Zimbabwe is a good example. There are no sanction on Zimbabwe. That is a myth. The only sanctions are those targeted on Mugabe and a few of his associates, and they are in place because of human rights abuses.

The economy has crashed, there is a 90% unemployment rate, for the very simple fact that Zimbabwe has shown itself to be a thief. No one does business with a thief, and no one extends credit to a thief.

You cannot run a modern economy without access to the international market, and for that you need credit. The Zimbabwean economy has declined by 70% from what it was at independence simply because no one does business with a thief.

So what would be the consequence of a policy of expropriation without compensation in South Africa? Well, as noted, such a policy would be illegal.

The international community will immediately take note that South Africa has become a rogue state. That is not too much to worry, about, its just political. There are plenty of rogue states around the world.

What would happen, however, in terms of South Africa's access to the international markets is of far more concern. South Africa would have signaled that property rights are insecure. That will mean that international investment in South Africa would come to a screeching halt.

This has been happening for many years in any event - that is why South Africa is now ranked no. 7 in gold mining, when it used to be no. 1.

It is why South Africa has a 27% unemployment rate, and a 50% youth unemployment rate. So the response could well be: "who cares, we do not need their investment". That may well indeed be true.

But, that is not where the real crisis occurs. South Africa needs access to international financial markets because it has a trade and budget deficit. It needs access to international financial markets to pay for its bloated public sector, and to pay social grants to all those unemployed people.

To raise that money, it needs the banks. Now this is where the consequences of a policy of expropriation without compensation hits home.

Banks have, as is the nature of banking, highly leveraged Balance Sheets. They lend as multiples of the assets they actually have. They need to conform with the Basel ratio's. If they have a rise in bad debt, they can easily wipe out their Balance Sheets - they then become bankrupt, and they collapse.

So what do you think will happen if land is expropriated without compensation to the Banks? The answer is, they will see a rise in bad debt, and they will collapse.

That is not the end of the story. South Africa has seen its black population rise from approximately 2.5 m in the mid 19th century, to its current level of 50 m.
The 2.5 m may be taken as the sustainable level of the black population without the benefits of colonialism, and of modern agriculture.


That 2.5 m number is important, because only 13% of South Africa is suited for agriculture, and only 3% is high quality agricultural land.
The vast majority of South African agricultural land requires the application of modern technology.


Farming in South Africa is highly capital intensive. Farmers depend on bank lending not only to buy their farms, but also to provide essential working capital.

So, what happens if the land is expropriated without compensation, if the banks then collapse?
Well it means no one is able to provide the essential working capital. If the farms then collapse, then up to 95% of the existing black population is at risk of starvation.


The banks cannot access international markets, international lenders will not lend, South Africa then descends into chaos.
At point, the international community would probably intervene military to restore order. As such, South Africa would have become yet another Failed State in the traditional African mold."



A FARMER GIVES HIS THOUGHTS ON THE MATTER: WHAT WILL HAPPEN WHEN THE ANC TAKES MY FARM

I have no doubt that the ANC Govt has given a lot of thought to the topic of Expropriation Without Compensation (EWC) however I think they might not have fully comprehended the consequences of such a policy. As a farmer I thought it might be useful to enlighten them as to the course of action I would take once my farm is targeted for EWC. Before I continue I would like to emphasize that this is not a threat nor delivered with the mindset of a saboteur, it is merely a description of the sequence of events that would unfold in the event of such a policy being enforced.

• I would immediately identify all the moveable assets on my farm and start selling them or placing them in a suitable storage facility. I list these below simply to demonstrate to non-farmers what makes a farm functional and profitable. The first to go would be all the livestock followed by all the machinery including tractors, pumps, silos, centre pivots, electrical transformers, irrigation equipment, water troughs, implements and piping. I would strip the dairy and sell the bulk tanks, milking machines etc. I would take down all internal fencing on the farm and recoup what I could. All sheds would be disassembled and all houses and other buildings would be stripped of anything sellable, including their roofs.

• I would disconnect/cancel the 5 Eskom points on the farm and obtain refunds on the deposits I’ve paid on them.

• I would re-trench all my staff and pay them off in accordance with the Labour Act. I would then strip all the staff accommodation on the farm and sell what I could.

• With the sale of all my livestock and cessation of the farming operation I would immediately default on the R5.5m I owe FNB but I wouldn’t worry as the farm is the loan’s security and I don’t really own anything else.

• When the day came to leave the farm I would hand the ‘keys’ over to the new ‘owners’ but I’m not quite sure what they would do as there’d be no roof on the farm house and there would be nothing to ‘farm’ on the farm. It would just be a piece of land, but that’s ok because the ANC says owning land makes you wealthy.

When you take the sequence of events described above and multiply it on a national scale you see another sequence of events unfolding.

• The new ‘farmers’ arrive on the farm but there is no livestock, machinery or working capital to continue the operation.

• They go to the banks to borrow money (A good farming habit) but the banks are sitting on a R160 Billion defaulted debt book from the ‘old’ farmers and won’t lend a cent to agriculture. They’re fighting for their own survival now.

• The Govt doesn’t have the money, which would be far more than the R160 Billion mentioned above, to re-capitalise and finance all the farms so most of the farms either fall derelict or are farmed at a subsistence level.

• There is a massive but short-term surplus of Beef, Sheep and Poultry products due to the sell-off by the previous farmers. This brings prices down drastically in the short term but eventually the meat runs out and there is nothing to replace it. Meat prices skyrocket.

• Dairy products cease almost immediately after the livestock cull/sell-off and within weeks there is a critical shortage of all dairy products. Importing is impossible due to the Govt’s actions which have decimated the value of the Rand.

• Maize lasts quite a bit longer and with careful rationing will endure until the next season but there is no crop in the ground for next year due to the new ‘farmers’ lack of machinery, experience and access to credit.

• All agricultural Co-Ops and suppliers very quickly cease operation and/or go bankrupt and re-trench all their staff. They cannot survive by selling single bags of seed and fertilizer to subsistence farmers.

• All processors of agricultural products such as meat, dairy and maize cease operation due to lack of product and re-trench all their staff.

• Rural Municipalities start to feel the pinch as there are no longer any farmers paying rates and the agricultural businesses in the towns have also sold up and left.

• Smaller rural towns that depended on agriculture eventually collapse and rural communities are forced to travel long distances to major centres to find ever dwindling supplies.

• Ironically the EWC movement creates more Urbanisation as the rural folk flee the agricultural desert that has been created.

• All food dependent enterprises such as fast food chains and restaurants either disappear or are greatly reduced…along with all their staff.

• With all the unemployed farmworkers, as well as those who have lost their jobs from other sectors, there is an unsustainable demand on the UIF system and it soon collapses.

• The Social Grant system teeters as the ripple effect from the agricultural collapse enters all sectors and the tax-base is shredded.

• Food riots become common and genuine hunger and poverty widespread.

• Unlike Zimbabwe the South African population has nowhere to run.

• With the White Farmer no longer an available target and the true ‘value’ of land revealed in all its fallacy the masses turn on the only target they have left -The ANC."

Now the only problem is that this is the situation logically laid out, but, as has been historically seen across the Continent African Governments seem not to deal in logic.

The sad fact is that in the majority of cases they appear to act upon impulse, hence the dire state of most Sub Saharan countries.

It would appear that despite the example of Rhodesia/Zimbabwe the seizure of white owned land may well now be repeated in South Afri vs with probably the same result.

Zambia, who has invited white farmers to go there, appears to be better placed to feed its population.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/322676437_Zambia_Agriculture_Status_Report_2017
The farmer in particular seems to have the right tactic.
But when the appropriation of white farms goes disastrously wrong, as it surely will, as usual it will be the white mans fault.
The black man will then, as usual, wait for the white man to bail him out yet again.
Maybe it's time for the white man to say "no, it's about time you stood on your own two feet".
When the black man, as usual doesn't, it will of course be the white mans fault.
I wonder how many billions of aid have been poured into Africa over the years? Too much.
I can remember Bob Geldof's original "Band aid". Words to the effect of "we'll raise this money & Africa will never need charity again". But after a couple of years, yet more aid being poured in.
Let no Zimbabwean or South African think that the Chinese are offering charity. They are extending their influence.
 
So where will the white population flee to, probably not back to Europe? Understand Australia and NZ are relocation locations of preference?

Points system to qualify for entrance to Oz. Many have age against them, along with lack of funds so won't qualify. NZ less stringent but still not easy for the aged or those without a lot of cash to invest.

Unlike the white population of Rhodesia who had strong links to the UK with many holding UK passports, most Saffers are generations away from any European link and don't hold UK or Euro passports. There's nowhere really left to go...
 
Unlike the white population of Rhodesia who had strong links to the UK with many holding UK passports, most Saffers are generations away from any European link and don't hold UK or Euro passports. There's nowhere really left to go...
We should just bring them home, turn out the light, then close and double bolt the chuffing door.

“We must ensure that we restore the dignity of our people without compensating the criminals who stole our land.”
Good luck with feeding your kids with your "restored dignity".
 
Points system to qualify for entrance to Oz. Many have age against them, along with lack of funds so won't qualify. NZ less stringent but still not easy for the aged or those without a lot of cash to invest.

Unlike the white population of Rhodesia who had strong links to the UK with many holding UK passports, most Saffers are generations away from any European link and don't hold UK or Euro passports. There's nowhere really left to go...
We take them back into Europe as last resort, 'settlers' out the left and black Africans would surely agree, I am sure Mrs M can find room for them even if entry for, shall I say 'others' are restricted to make space.
 
Problem for most of us is that we are home. The ANC regime doesn't want us here but we don't know or belong anywhere else either.
Canada had a sponsorship program for family members. Got my (retired and not wealthy) parents in about 2 decades back but not sure if the program's still running.

We've offered the BIL, FIL and family a roof over their heads but they're in CT where it's not a concern yet (apparently)
 

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