So how will Ireland vote?

#1
This referendum has sort of crept up without a lot of analysis that I have seen in the media, so anyone want to take a stab at which way it will go?

All of Europe is looking to Ireland as the country prepares to vote on Thursday in a referendum on the unpopular fiscal compact for greater budgetary discipline. If the Irish reject the new treaty, it won't just be a major blow to its main advocate Angela Merkel. It could also spark panic on the financial markets.

Irish Engage in Intense Debate Over Euro Zone Fiscal Pact Referendum - SPIEGEL ONLINE
 
#3
You mean like the last vote Ireland had on the EU where they had a repeat run because they didn't vote yes. God bless democracy.
 
#4
it will go through
people are afraid and unsure of whats going to happen
im voting yes for the treaty...id love to tell angie and her banks
to go **** themselves
but the paddys are good at screwing reich euro out of europe
whatever they get out of us
we will get back...and then a bit
 

Grumblegrunt

LE
Book Reviewer
#5
they would do better to reject it, scrap the euro to eat the rush and use sterling while they bring back the punt.

fortunately the eu doesnt have the time to make them vote six times for a yes. the irish tried to leapfrog the mainland and were doing okay until the banks went all silly on them and they let the housing market go mental. better to hide behind the uk for a bit I reckon.

mind you did you read the thing on irish moving to the uk just to declare bankruptcy and avoid all the fallout from back home? so far we have absolved 1.1 billion euros in private debt obligations.
 
#8
If the polls are right it will be an overwhelming yes like the last Lisbon vote.

You can find out why here, the short answer is we need the feckin money.
 
#9
Ironic in a way.
Ireland so long portrayed as the nation of plucky freedom fighters, that struggled against the might of the British empire for national independence, and the right to govern itself now preparing to literally vote that freedom away.
Don't suppose there will be too many songs sung about this little episode, unless its a variation on "Parcel Of Rogues" just change the line "We are bought and sold for English gold" to read "E.U gold" and tune up the fiddles.
 
#11
TBH,whichever way it goes,I just hope things get better for them.

The thing I admire most about them is,the fact that they realised they were in the shite,and they then went about trying to solve their problems,without bleating to Brussels.

Unlike certain other profligate spenders throughout the EU,they have maintained a certain stoicism,and if any one country does deserve a bit of a hand up it's the Republic of Ireland,because you can bet they won't make the same mistakes again! :)
 
#12
TBH,whichever way it goes,I just hope things get better for them.

if any one country does deserve a bit of a hand up it's the Republic of Ireland,because you can bet they won't make the same mistakes again! :)
Unfortunately the mistake was made all those years ago when the Punt went its own way and the "step by step" with Sterling was abandoned. Even De Valera was not so foolish as to do that! I remember that precarious see-saw period vividly!

Perhaps the solution is for the Republic of Ireland to rejoin the "sterling zone" and become part of a British/Irish financial confederation?

It would help in the longer term as the (financial) debt to the UK is actually much larger than most imagine. As to the political consequences.... ?
 
#13
It will be a yes, no other option. Well maybe shoot a few dozen retired bankers/politicians/developers and then vote yes.
 
#14
Ironic in a way.
Ireland so long portrayed as the nation of plucky freedom fighters, that struggled against the might of the British empire for national independence, and the right to govern itself now preparing to literally vote that freedom away.
Don't suppose there will be too many songs sung about this little episode, unless its a variation on "Parcel Of Rogues" just change the line "We are bought and sold for English gold" to read "E.U gold" and tune up the fiddles.
Well, to be fair I do seem to recall some people a while ago saying "We're British....but our cows are Irish". :)

Just life really, I suppose.
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
#15
The opinion polls are saying 'yes', but the last time the Irish said 'no', the opinion polls were also saying 'yes' until the last moment.

I think they'll say yes just because this poll doesn't make a blind bit of difference. The fiscal pact comes into effect after 12 or 17 counties ratify it. If the Irish vote No, they won't stop the pact coming into effect, but they will be cut off from future EU bail out funds.

That's democracy for you - voting no still means you can't stop the fiscal pact.

Wordsmith
 
#16
Ironic in a way.
Ireland so long portrayed as the nation of plucky freedom fighters, that struggled against the might of the British empire for national independence, and the right to govern itself now preparing to literally vote that freedom away.
Don't suppose there will be too many songs sung about this little episode, unless its a variation on "Parcel Of Rogues" just change the line "We are bought and sold for English gold" to read "E.U gold" and tune up the fiddles.
laughing
cmon kilo baby
freedom is an illusion
look at yourself
if you were free you could piss off when and where you liked
without anyones by your leave
 
#17
...
Unlike certain other profligate spenders throughout the EU,they have maintained a certain stoicism,and if any one country does deserve a bit of a hand up it's the Republic of Ireland,because you can bet they won't make the same mistakes again! :)
Yes, looking at the far more favorable terms other countries negotiated on their loans I doubt if Dublin will be such a thick culchie in future. Nor are we likely to socialize such a vast amount of private debt in the near future, there simply isn't the capacity in the Irish economy to service such generosity to similarly stupid bondholders.
 
#18
what can ya do when the teachers and county councillers that you elected
get frightened into scribbiling a blank cheque
to a gang of gombeen men bankers
one night in september...
 

skid2

LE
Book Reviewer
#19
It would be interesting if the Irish vote No and tell the bankers and bondholders that it's tough and stocks can go down as well as up. But they won't.
 
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