It depends entirely on how the referendum is phrased.
If (as the SNP want) it is phrased "Do you, brave Scotsman want to banish the evil English oppressors, and rise, rise, rise up like your forefathers to march to glorious victory over the knavish English Swine!?"
then yeah, the Union will end fairly sharpish.
But if it was truthfully phrased i.e.
"Do you want to be severed from the rest of the Union and therefore the EU, with no chance of membership, as shown by the EU informing the SNP in 2005 that Scotlwand would not meet the economic requirements for entry into the EU, you will lose the massive subsidies you receive and have no chance of maintaining your slim control over the oil revenue from the north sea?"
then it might be a different outcome. Its a simple choice between getting drawn into emotional rhetoric or actually paying attention to the facts and acting accordingly.
What is so untruthful about the English oppressing the Scots?
What is so bad about not being part of the EU? The EU is what is ruining this country/group of countries.
I'd like to hear how the EU gives us more subsidies than it does take money from us.
With regards to the north sea oil, i am not too clued up on the ownership battle over that. I am sure Scotland could and will keep their ownership of it. The only people i could see fighting over it would be the English.
S'owned by the Oil companies that produce it, not the country it is drilled in.
Countries assign licences and charge taxes based on usage of pipelines, infrastructure and barrels sold on the international markets.
As the majority of companies exploiting the north sea are listed on the LONDON stock market, and therefore domiciled in ENGLAND, they would pay tax here.
Only income received by scotland would be from employment and transit taxes of the produce (bearing in mind only the crude goes to Scotland, gas comes directly to England).
Putting that aside, North Sea oil is now past peak, and existing fields are exepcted to be depleted within 30 years. So Scotland would have to create a mature, services based economy, rather like that of the City of London, in about 15 years.
Also, gvt spending per capita is something like 3 k higher per head in scotland than it is in england (although this is equally true for south eastern england vs everywhere else in the UK).
No amount of squirming will get away from the fact that the UK economy is centred around the South East. Since the industrial revolution it has been, and will be for the foreseeable future (and for as long as the weather remains crap north of Cambridge).
and obviously ignoring that everything in scotland costs more due to the petrol used to ship it up here having a feck off level of duty on it. Scots effectively pay MORE tax than the b'stard english because of this.
I meant the English oppressing the Scots throughout history. Exactly the same to the Welsh too, if not worse.
I don't want to get into all of the details, because they are embarrassing for any Englishman to read.
I, as a Welshman, would want independence as soon as possible. All of this talk about not being able to set up a viable economy is balls. If we were independent, we would be better off straight away, in many, many ways!
Given that so much of the glorious history of the union was written at least in part by the porrige wogs then it SHOULD last. But due to the dumbing down of the education system over the lat 11 years and the cynical short term politics played by Zanu NL in the devolution issue then the union is going to hell in a hand cart.
For gods sake, either the founding chairman or chielf cashier of the Bank of England was a Scot, most of the empire was conquered with the help of Highlanders, and a large number of highly successful 18th and 19th century industrialists were Scots.
But now due to recless social engineering the majority of people on both sides of the border think they would be better off withou the other.