Serbian Government Collapses as Shock Election Called

#1
According to the Beeb

The vote could decide whether the Balkan country heads towards integration with the European Union or returns to isolation.

A pro-Western alliance led by President Boris Tadic is running neck and neck with ultra-nationalists.

Kosovo's declaration of independence has boosted the hardliners.

Disagreements over how to react when most EU countries recognised Kosovo led to the collapse of a fragile coalition between Mr Tadic's Democratic Party and Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica's nationalist Democratic Party of Serbia.
Perhaps White City can give us an insight to this surprise.
 
#2
I suppose it's back to the Middle Ages for Johnny Serb then yeeha! And their EU integration dream (hopefully) shattered. Slough is saved!
 
#5
Sven said:
According to the Beeb

The vote could decide whether the Balkan country heads towards integration with the European Union or returns to isolation.

A pro-Western alliance led by President Boris Tadic is running neck and neck with ultra-nationalists.

Kosovo's declaration of independence has boosted the hardliners.

Disagreements over how to react when most EU countries recognised Kosovo led to the collapse of a fragile coalition between Mr Tadic's Democratic Party and Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica's nationalist Democratic Party of Serbia.
Perhaps White City can give us an insight to this surprise.
Certainly SVEN,

It's not a surprise. The election is today. Voting started earlier this morning. The election was called 6 weeks ago. The coalition government was never a 'happy' family and were always going to fall out sooner or later.

Have a read through the 'Kosovo' thread on ARRSE, and you'll see this has been under discussion for quite some time.
 
#6
You dont get intergration with the EU, you get absorption, it's like the fecking Borg from Star Trek.

Come on Serbia, do your stuff and defy the EU!
 
#8
It will be a hung Parliament according to the news this morning. Stand by for political wranglings - internally, EU and Russian as well.
 
#10
Heedthebaw said:
Isn't the majority party a Pro Western one? Thats what Today said this morning........
There is no majority parliament. Preliminary results as follows - to be confirmed officially later.

Total seats in parliament is 250.

SRS: 29.1% - 77 seats
DSS/NS: 11.3% - 30 seats
SPS/PUPS/JS: 7.9% - 20 seats
LDP: 5.2% - 13 seats
DS coalition: 38.7% - 103 seats
others: 7 seats

Please note, the pre-election DS coalition is made up of five parties which will probably split the 103 seats as follows: DS-67, G17-24, SPO-4, LSV-4 and SDP-4.



So, the Radicals (SRS) are likely to remain the largest single party in parliament with 77 seats. To form a government, anybody needs 126 mandates to hold a majority. Tadic (the President) will now ask his own party (DS) to gather that number. But it will need either Kostunica (DSS) or Dacic (SPS - Milosevic's old mob) to pass the barrier even if he brings in all the minority parties and the LDP. Not an easy task.

If he can't do it, SRS, DSS and SPS could just squeeze 127. Nikolic (SRS) announced last night he wanted to talk with Kostunica (DSS) first thing this morning. Dacic (SPS) said exactly the same. Kostunica just said he'll never talk to DS again!

Strong possibility of a minority government forming with DSS sitting in opposition and agreeing not to bring down a government in a vote of no confidence. Not at all stable.

More likely is Kostunica remains as caretaker PM for the next 3-4 months whilst negotiations on forming a government flounder, and new elections are held in August to try and break the stalemate.
 
#11
Ethnic minorities: 2.3%, seven seats

They've got an Ethnic Minority Party? Why can't we have an Ethnic Minority Party? Would certainly save the main party continuly canvasing for Minority policies to apply on a Majority.

Oh silly me, I forgot... we're too nice :)
 
#12
According to Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=aBI.cLAWuETo

The bloc led by Tadic's Democratic Party would have [b[102[/b] seats in the 250-member parliament, based on the early results.

A potential coalition partner for Tadic is the pro-European Liberal Democratic Party if it exceeds the 5 percent barrier needed to enter parliament. The early results showed it with about 4.6 percent.

Tadic also could try to form an alliance with the nationalist-leaning Socialist Party of Serbia, previously led by late President Slobodan Milosevic. The Socialists received 9 percent of the vote, according to the early results, or 25 seats.

The Radicals, whose tally would give them 80 seats, are also certain to court the Socialists as they seek to form a three-way coalition with outgoing prime minister, Vojislav Kostunica, said Lyon. The Democratic Party of Serbia, led by Kostunica, was third with 13.5 percent, giving it a projected 37 seats.
So we have

Tadic's Pro-EU bloc ---------------------------- 102
Lib-Dems (pro-EU) ----------------------------- ? (maybe 0)
Socialists (Milosevic's party)------------------ 25
Kostunica's party (moderate nationalists) - 37
Radicals (hard-core nationalists) ------------- 80
National minorities ------------------------------ 7

Any viable coalition needs the Socialists as partners. Likely it would include also the Radicals and Koshtunica's party.


...
 
#13
In-Limbo said:
Ethnic minorities: 2.3%, seven seats

They've got an Ethnic Minority Party? Why can't we have an Ethnic Minority Party? Would certainly save the main party continuly canvasing for Minority policies to apply on a Majority.

Oh silly me, I forgot... we're too nice :)
I thought UK Labour Party was EVERY Minority Party?
 
#14
KGB_resident said:
According to Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=aBI.cLAWuETo

The bloc led by Tadic's Democratic Party would have [b[102[/b] seats in the 250-member parliament, based on the early results.

A potential coalition partner for Tadic is the pro-European Liberal Democratic Party if it exceeds the 5 percent barrier needed to enter parliament. The early results showed it with about 4.6 percent.

Tadic also could try to form an alliance with the nationalist-leaning Socialist Party of Serbia, previously led by late President Slobodan Milosevic. The Socialists received 9 percent of the vote, according to the early results, or 25 seats.

The Radicals, whose tally would give them 80 seats, are also certain to court the Socialists as they seek to form a three-way coalition with outgoing prime minister, Vojislav Kostunica, said Lyon. The Democratic Party of Serbia, led by Kostunica, was third with 13.5 percent, giving it a projected 37 seats.
So we have

Tadic's Pro-EU bloc ---------------------------- 102
Lib-Dems (pro-EU) ----------------------------- ? (maybe 0)
Socialists (Milosevic's party)------------------ 25
Kostunica's party (moderate nationalists) - 37
Radicals (hard-core nationalists) ------------- 80
National minorities ------------------------------ 7

Any viable coalition needs the Socialists as partners. Likely it would include also the Radicals and Koshtunica's party.
...
Bloomberg's information is WELL out-of-date. This information was announced in a news conference at midnight by RIK (official election commission) after about 30% of the votes had been cast.

The information I published earlier is from CeSID (independent monitors) which I pulled off their website at 7 this morning.

While I was typing my message (midday), the RIK held another news conference and announced the following on the basis of 98% ballots counted...

SRS: 29.2% - 77 seats
DSS/NS: 11.3% - 30 seats
SPS/PUPS/JS: 7.6% - 20 seats
LDP: 5.3% - 14 seats
DS coalition: 38.8% - 102 seats
others: 7 seats

Nikolic (SRS) and Kostunica (DSS) currently in talks about future government. Will need Dacic (SPS) as full member - or acquiescence in parliament if minority government formed. SRS scheduled to talk with SPS later today.
 

mercurydancer

LE
Book Reviewer
#15
Domovoy...

Please try to keep up.. The Labour party in the UK at the moment is the most aggressively capitalist government we have ever had.

(PFI anyone?)
 
#16
mercurydancer said:
Domovoy...

Please try to keep up.. The Labour party in the UK at the moment is the most aggressively capitalist government we have ever had.

(PFI anyone?)
Which, oddly enough, doesn't stop it from being "every minority"... :)
 

mercurydancer

LE
Book Reviewer
#17
domovoy...
I suppose that the 10% of our population who own 80% of our wealth are a minority.

I'm getting in touch with my inner communist....
 
#18
mercurydancer said:
domovoy...
I suppose that the 10% of our population who own 80% of our wealth are a minority.

I'm getting in touch with my inner communist....
Pareto is soooooooooooooo old hat! Although it was 20/80 in his day! It was even worse under Communism - 0.1% ran everything and there were comrades and COMRADES.
 

Biped

LE
Book Reviewer
#19
You never know your luck!

They might get a party that votes them into the EU, then the ultra-nationalists get into power, start an EU internal war, and the whole EU thing is called off amid WW3.

Britain becomes an independent state again, the pro-EU politicos all get put up against a wall, and we can get on with normal life again without European interference.

oh, sorry, was I thinking out loud? Do apologise!
 

Grownup_Rafbrat

LE
Book Reviewer
#20
mercurydancer said:
Domovoy...

Please try to keep up.. The Labour party in the UK at the moment is the most aggressively capitalist government we have ever had.

(PFI anyone?)
PFI was introduced by The Blue Team under the Maggon. I'll accept that the Red Team has refined it to a point of purgatory for the population, but just look at the number of retired MPs and Cabinet Members or all colours sitting on the boards of PFI companies to see why it was done.
 

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