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Secret services say Iran trying to assemble nuclear missile

#2
Firstly , why is the Guardian especially being so honoured with first views of this 'leaked' information?

The Iranian government has been successfully scouring Europe for the sophisticated equipment needed to develop a nuclear bomb, according to the latest western intelligence assessment of the country's weapons programmes.
Assessment.

citing a report by an unnamed European intelligence agency.
Would that be an agency East of Germany and West of Ukraine?

It notes that Iran harbours ambitions of developing a space programme, but is currently concentrating on upgrading and extending the range of its Shahab-3 missile, which has a range of 750 miles - capable of reaching Israel.

Iranian scientists are said to be building wind tunnels to assist in missile design, developing navigation technology, and acquiring metering and calibration technology, motion simulators and x-ray machines designed to examine rocket parts. The next generation of the Shahab ("shooting star" in Persian) should be capable of reaching Austria and Italy.
Oh , not Cyprus? Stop me if you've heard this before.......
 
#3
Taz_786 said:
Document seen by Guardian details web of front companies and middlemen:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/iran/story/0,12858,1677542,00.html

European firms warned they are main target of illicit trade in weapons parts:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/iran/story/0,12858,1677554,00.html

Tehran ends freeze on nuclear fuel research:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/iran/story/0,12858,1677561,00.html



Looks like the Iranians have made their decision.
Let's look at these articles closely

Secret services say Iran is trying to assemble a nuclear missile

Document seen by Guardian details web of front companies and middlemen

Ian Cobain and Ian Traynor
Wednesday January 4, 2006

---

Intelligence report claims nuclear market thriving

European firms warned they are main target of illicit trade in weapons parts

Ian Traynor and Ian Cobain
Wednesday January 4, 2006

---

Tehran ends freeze on nuclear fuel research

Ian Traynor
Wednesday January 4, 2006[/b]
Look 3!!! articles by the same authors in 1!!! newspaper at 1!!! day. What does it mean? Why couldn't mr.Traynor and mr.Cobain to publish only one big atricle in Guardian?

Really it might be this way:

"Mr.Trainor, we have a work for you and mr. Cobain. Publish 3 articles in leading British newspapers" - "Payment?" - "5000" - "mmm. OK, though I expect more".

"Hi Ian, we have a work" - "How much" - "3000 for me and 2000 for you" - "Ian, let show these dullards that they should pay more!".
 
#4
Something smells.........

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,,1587718,00.html

MI5 unmasks covert arms programmes

Document names 300 organisations seeking nuclear and WMD technology

Ian Cobain and Ewen MacAskill
Saturday October 8, 2005
The Guardian


The determination of countries across the Middle East and Asia to develop nuclear arsenals and other weapons of mass destruction is laid bare by a secret British intelligence document which has been seen by the Guardian.
More than 360 private companies, university departments and government organisations in eight countries, including the Pakistan high commission in London, are identified as having procured goods or technology for use in weapons programmes.

The length of the list, compiled by MI5, suggests that the arms trade supermarket is bigger than has so far been publicly realised. MI5 warns against exports to organisations in Iran, Pakistan, India, Israel, Syria and Egypt and to beware of front companies in the United Arab Emirates, which appears to be a hub for the trade.
So in the space of 3 months, the original reporter forgot where he first got this information from? Is this the same unamed European intelligence agency , or another one?

Smellier than the contents of a very smelly thing.


Tell me Sergei , in Russia, how many times does the Government 'leak' a story to ensure it gets ingrained into the Nation's psyche?

And how long before Shrub holds it up triumphantly , as proof positive that Iran is up to no good?
 
#5
PartTimePongo said:
And how long before Shrub holds it up triumphantly , as proof positive that Iran is up to no good?
Iran, Quite possibly Is up to no good.

However I'll be buggered if I can think of anyone who will belive him.

Bet he didn't see this coming when he invaded Iraq.
 
#6
Are they the same Secret Services who told us Iraq had WMD's?
Sure I'll believe what the Spooks tell me about Iran. Just look at their fantastic record:
Falklands War - did'nt see it coming.
Iraq invades Kuwait - Oops!
9/11 - My Bad!
WMD's - OK anyone can make that mistake.
7/7 - No group currently has both the capability and intent to attack...Bugger!
 
#7
Werewolf wrote

Falklands War - did'nt see it coming.
Iraq invades Kuwait - Oops!
9/11 - My Bad!
WMD's - OK anyone can make that mistake.
7/7 - No group currently has both the capability and intent to attack...Bugger!
_________________

Falklands - knew what was happening, but didnt think Argies were that stupid, so made no plans at all
Iraq - obvious what was going to happen but more important things, i.e european football
9/11, in America, not looking in the right direction
WMD - er, we had them since we obliterated most of their army after the war started (Grid Square Removal Company / Depleted Uranium| etc).
7/7 - surely nobody, especially and English person would do such a darstardly act, and, as you say, bugger !!, got that one wrong.

On the Horizon

Iran - keep quiet, dont want to upset the Iranians by making accusations, no matter how accurate
Ireland - yes no trouble there, lets allow everyone who killed all the civvies and squaddies, back home and let them off scot free, that will go down a belter in bars up and down the land
Zimbabwe - ooh aah, decisions, lets jump and down and make lots of statements and hope Mugabe listens. Yeah but, no but, yeah but all the people are dying of starvation. Ok, send food to Mugabe, he will give it out to the needy, when he's rebuilt their homes
Somalia / Sudan etc - good idea to let the majority of the population arrive illegally in UK leaving their own country empty. No problem any more.
China - too far
Need somewhere closer to home, within our skill set (aka train set) that we can handle. Any ideas ??
 
#9
PartTimePongo said:
Tell me Sergei , in Russia, how many times does the Government 'leak' a story to ensure it gets ingrained into the Nation's psyche?
PatrTimePongo!

Usage of paid 'journalists' in dirty political games is very popular in Russia. One of them mr.Khinshtein was even granted by membership in the Parliament (from por-Putin United Russia). Namely he 'discovered' some wrongdoings made by former Russian PM Kasyanov who is now regarded as possible candidate on president elections in 2008 from pro-Western opposition.

http://en.rian.ru/russia/20051130/42266522.html

Khinshtein has claimed Kasyanov was involved in the illegal acquisition of property worth $100-million and asked the former premier during his unexpected appearance where he had found the money.
It was only a warning and the former PM is not in the jail and the case is in coma state. But I suspect that mr.Khinshtein will no dobt 'recall' facts close to the elections.
 
#10
You mean like the Ariel Sharon case has magicaly returned from the dead all of a sudden Sergei?

"Come on Ariel , get with the programme or else , Iran needs bombing , love and stuff - Benjamin N" :D
 
#12
The determination of countries across the Middle East and Asia to develop nuclear arsenals and other weapons of mass destruction is laid bare by a secret British intelligence document which has been seen by the Guardian.
More than 360 private companies, university departments and government organisations in eight countries, including the Pakistan high commission in London, are identified as having procured goods or technology for use in weapons programmes.
I am confused - Why go to Europe when you can go to China, North Korea or Pakistan for example? The Pakistanis who already have an established WMD and nuclear program co-operate with the Chinese. The long range Shaheen-I and Shaheen-II ballistic missiles are knock offs of the Chinese versions.
 
#13
But the Chinese versions are just knock offs of the Russian versions. And thats strange as well there are better places in than Europe for nuclear know how, But something seems on the horizon this year who knows..... But it would appear the exit stratergy would be to send more troops out to Iraq for 'security' then when you come to invade Iran you just hop across.

And I still think the Israelis will strike first.
 
#14
dan_man said:
But the Chinese versions are just knock offs of the Russian versions. And thats strange as well there are better places in than Europe for nuclear know how, But something seems on the horizon this year who knows..... But it would appear the exit stratergy would be to send more troops out to Iraq for 'security' then when you come to invade Iran you just hop across.

And I still think the Israelis will strike first.
Though you are right that the Chinese and Pakistani models can be traced back to russian design both countries have developed and improved the original technology, in rather suprising ways.

On Iran I just can't see how the the Americans could manage a front that stretched from Afghanistan to Iraq. I also can't see how the Israelis or America could strike against Iran without some major fall out.
 
#16
Biscuits_Brown said:
also can't see how the Israelis or could strike against Iran without some major fall out.
Aye, and that's the problem.... the fallout.
oops that should have been or America could strike.

Don't think I should have used the term 'fall out' either, even though that could be the doomsday scenario.
 
#17
I suppose it depends upon how dangerous a nuclear armed Iraq is considered to be. The Israelis may have a different view from the Spams on the issue. What's it worth to either of them to prevent the Iranians getting usable weapons system?

It did occur that if political ramifications were not an issue the Yanks could play a brinksmanship card, bomb the sites heavily then issue "massive retaliation" warning, a bit like they did i the '50's - Any overt military response will result in he "agressor" experiencing the cutting edge of US special weapons technology first hand....

The global amifications would obviously be rather...poor...shall we say but then we've been there before.
Like I say, it rather depends on how badly people antto stop the 'Ranians getting the bomb.
 

Goatman

ADC
Book Reviewer
#18
Kitmarlowe said:
Wont the lovely chaps in Navy blue have some spare ones we can flog in a few years?
hmmm....Trident quoted shelf-life is thirty years [Strategic Defence Review 1998 para 62) so it depends what you qualify as " a few"

Good piece with many links on Labour's squirming on the replacement issue at http://www.basicint.org/nuclear/beyondtrident/index.htm

Admiral Sir Alan West, the First Sea Lord, told a Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) that a decision on replacing the Vanguard SSBNs is expected in the "next two or three years" ('U.K. Debates Trident Sub Replacement', Defense News, 31 May, 2004). In November, he said the following during a Defence Committee inquiry:

There will be an interesting debate about the future deterrent within this country which will have to happen. I would be surprised if it did not happen in the next Parliament, after the election, because when one looks at time-lines for replacing, as was said in the SDR, we expected the current deterrent, the Trident Force, to last 30 years-that takes you up to the mid 2020s. If you think about the timescales to replace that, then people have got to start talking about that in the next Parliament. In the context of that, I am sure people will also talk about what protection is needed. First of all, there has got to be a decision made, an absolutely political decision: do we want to keep nuclear weapons? Then, what is the best way of doing it, and then on from there. So that is all going to have to happen in the future, and that will all have an impact, I am sure, on nuclear submarine numbers.

Hansard, Oral Evidence to the Defence Committee, 'Future Capabilities' Q548, 24 November 2004.
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200405/
cmselect/cmdfence/45/4112404.htm
Le Chevre
 
#19
Biscuits_Brown said:
I suppose it depends upon how dangerous a nuclear armed Iraq is considered to be. The Israelis may have a different view from the Spams on the issue. What's it worth to either of them to prevent the Iranians getting usable weapons system?

It did occur that if political ramifications were not an issue the Yanks could play a brinksmanship card, bomb the sites heavily then issue "massive retaliation" warning, a bit like they did i the '50's - Any overt military response will result in he "agressor" experiencing the cutting edge of US special weapons technology first hand....

The global amifications would obviously be rather...poor...shall we say but then we've been there before.
Like I say, it rather depends on how badly people antto stop the 'Ranians getting the bomb.
But don't you need an effective delivery system? - what I know of missiles (which is not a lot, so apologies if I screw up) the only weaponry that Iran has that could be used are short ranged Items such as Shahab 1 and Shahab 2. Both missiles being under 500 KM in range. Even missile such as Shahab 3 (1500 KM) are limited in their number and the actual reliability of the Shahab 3 is in question.
Not sure about the development of the Shahab 4 though.
 
#20
castlereagh said:
Biscuits_Brown said:
I suppose it depends upon how dangerous a nuclear armed Iraq is considered to be. The Israelis may have a different view from the Spams on the issue.
But don't you need an effective delivery system?
From an Israeli point of view, that's a missile or aircraft. From an American point of view, that's a Panamanian freighter to Mexico followed by a truck ride north. Or a Kilo-class sub taking a month or two to drive to San Diego harbour, before becoming the most expensive groundburst suicide bomb in history.

Come to think of it, it's interesting that the USN recently hired a Swedish SSK to exercise against...
 

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