Scottish Politics Thread

Fang_Farrier

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#1
Seeing as various aspects of Scottish Politics keep on raising their little heads on ARRSE, I thought why not just one combined thread.
Obviously with the prospect of the SNP being potential kingmakers at the General Election in May 2015 and then the Scottish Election in 2016, there's a fair amount to discuss as well as the current issues over the NHS and consensual Police stop and search.

So, for starters,
Should polling showing a 25 point swing to the SNP be taken seriously?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-31131170

 

Sixty

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#2
Arrrrggggggghhhhhhhhh! Another thousand page monster is born. The humanity!

More seriously, yes. The polling has been remarkably consistent, Lord Ashcroft's in particular was very comprehensive - by phone rather than internet and with a wider polling base than is usual.

Happy days :)
 

Fang_Farrier

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#3
Arrrrggggggghhhhhhhhh! Another thousand page monster is born. The humanity!

More seriously, yes. The polling has been remarkably consistent, Lord Ashcroft's in particular was very comprehensive - by phone rather than internet and with a wider polling base than is usual.

Happy days :)
I suspect that the 45 are joined in their voting intention whilst the other 55 will be split amongst the other parties.

Divide and rule will be proven true.
 
#4
I went to a "Burns Night" ! Just saying!
 
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#5
Arrrrggggggghhhhhhhhh! Another thousand page monster is born. The humanity!

More seriously, yes. The polling has been remarkably consistent, Lord Ashcroft's in particular was very comprehensive - by phone rather than internet and with a wider polling base than is usual.

Happy days :)
Only a thousand pages? Are you serious? You think it's going to be that short once the Kevin and Andy Show starts?

But, seriously, before people start wetting their knickers at the SNP being some sort of "kingmaker", the one thing that will play a bigger part in the result will be the turnout. Traditionally, in elections, the SNP have scored around 20-25% of the electorate, or lower. A lower turnout where their supporters make up the most of voters, see 2011 SP elections with a 50% turnout, could result in the "swing" the polls suggest. A high turnout, however, could easily return many more votes to Labour which would kybosh the "surge".

Why do I say that? Well, plenty people I know voted "Yes" (despite, like many, not realising what they were voting for) BUT had the intent to vote Labour in the 2016 Scottish Elections. We've even seen some here say that openly in the now-defunct Independence thread. So if that thought is continued, the SNP might not get what they believe they will get, and once Scottish Labour start the inevitable "Vote SNP, get more Evil Tory cuts forever" that may have an effect on the polls too.

Personally, I'm going to wait until it's closer to the day before saying X, Y or Z will happen, the situation is still too fluid. Don't get me wrong, the destruction of any hope of Labour gaining power in the UK again is something that appeals to me, but the thought of the Socialist Numpty Party having any real sway in the national Government is one that should terrify anyone with two brain cells to rub together.
 
#6
The SNP are already celebrating the victory they haven't had. The more they gloat at poll results, the more they haver, the more certain voters will vote anyone but SNP.

I'm amazed at the SNP being so believing of a 'Tory' poll. Had it predicted failure for them, they would have been frothing at the mouth. Think the permanently angry Peter Wishart.
 

Fang_Farrier

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#7
Why do I say that? Well, plenty people I know voted "Yes" (despite, like many, not realising what they were voting for) BUT had the intent to vote Labour in the 2016 Scottish Elections. We've even seen some here say that openly in the now-defunct Independence thread. So if that thought is continued, the SNP might not get what they believe they will get, and once Scottish Labour start the inevitable "Vote SNP, get more Evil Tory cuts forever" that may have an effect on the polls too.
Interestingly enough if you listen to the various politicians speaking on Radio Scotland both Tories and Labour do seem quite concerned and both make contradictory claims.
Week before last, Murphy was spouting "vote SNP, and it will see the Tories in power", whilst within half an hour, Davidson was going on about voting SNP will put Labour in power with them.
 

Fang_Farrier

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#8
#10
Interestingly enough if you listen to the various politicians speaking on Radio Scotland both Tories and Labour do seem quite concerned and both make contradictory claims.
Week before last, Murphy was spouting "vote SNP, and it will see the Tories in power", whilst within half an hour, Davidson was going on about voting SNP will put Labour in power with them.
Welcome to the world of politics. After all, there are enough seats up for grabs to make people speak in tongues.

Labour don't want to lose their share in Scotland as, simply, they would likely be unable to gain a majority in the HoC without the seats from Scotland and the Tories would love to get some of the pie north of the border to reduce the Labour "lead" there. Add in the potential threat from UKIP south of the border and it's clear why both cheeks are "concerned" and want Scottish votes.

It's hardly rocket science, after all.
 
#11
Will it be safe or wise for the SNP to completely dominate the political spectrum in Scotland?

Look at the huge majority Blair got and what he got up too. That was with a credible opposition..

Who will hold them to account in the Scots parliament?
 
#12
Will it be safe or wise for the SNP to completely dominate the political spectrum in Scotland?

Look at the huge majority Blair got and what he got up too. That was with a credible opposition..

Who will hold them to account in the Scots parliament?
The same people who do now.

Oh, hang on.........
 

Auld-Yin

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#13
OK, here is my POV as it stands today, it will be interesting (to me anyway) to see how, if, it changes much over the next couple of months in the lead up to the GE.

I think SNP will do very well out of the GE but not as well as they predict; Labour will do badly, but not as badly as predicted. Tories will retain their one seat, even if they have a poor candidate. I heard a commentator last night saying Jim Murphy is in a win-win situation; anything bad is blamed on before his time, anything good is because he is now in charge! It also said that he is looking at the Scottish GE in 2016, so have Labour written off this election as un-winnable?

I am particularly surprised at the Tories not capitalising on the Scottish Referendum. They won, yet did nothing at all to build on that. They are now the only right of centre party in Scotland (UKIP are not major contenders really) and the only choice for people not wanting a Socialist government. I think they should push on that and, while I realise that Scotland as a Nation are left of centre, they should be hoovering up any votes of people not liking SNP/Labour policies.

Prediction: SNP will win handsomely in Scotland but not wipe out Labour. Labour will lose dreadfully and will become a Party of Weegies with the occasional Dundonian nutter and maybe a leavening of Edinburgh MSPs to bring some panache to their Party!:D The fight for 2016 has commenced and the GE in May is just another poll to be considered. The Scottish GE of 2016 will therefore be a west versus east fight between SNP and Labour!

Happy days.
 
#14
I'm (selfishly) looking forward to APD being reduced or scrapped up here. I say selfishly because it won't be good for Newcastle airport.
Plus it'll be interesting to see how they back down over fracking after the general election. I don't think the SNP are that stupid to keep the lid on it indefinitely.


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#15
Given that the high profile ‘vow’ made by pro-union party leaders in the final days of the referendum had no impact (Recent research - http://www.scotsman.com/ ) on the final result, the SNP will increase their share of the vote in the forthcoming GE, especially in Glasgow and Dundee, and Labour will suffer a slight loss of votes but it will be a lot closer than the SNipS are predicting.

On fracking, you will see a climbdown from the SNP soon especially when Ineos seriously start to think about closing down Grangemouth
 

rampant

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#16
Given that the high profile ‘vow’ made by pro-union party leaders in the final days of the referendum had no impact (Recent research - http://www.scotsman.com/ ) on the final result, the SNP will increase their share of the vote in the forthcoming GE, especially in Glasgow and Dundee, and Labour will suffer a slight loss of votes but it will be a lot closer than the SNipS are predicting.

On fracking, you will see a climbdown from the SNP soon especially when Ineos seriously start to think about closing down Grangemouth
https://www.holyrood.com/articles/news/vow-‘did-not-swing-referendum-vote’#.VNs3Lm5piRF.twitter
 
#18
Here's my take on the current stop and search controversy.

Fifteen years ago, Glasgow, and west central Scotland in general, found itself with the unenviable reputation as being the murder capital of Western Europe. Knife crime was endemic, drug use rife and kids as young as ten were getting shit faced on Buckie every evening. Strathclyde Police responded to this with a strategy which included, amongst other less in-your-face tactics, a robust use of stop and search. To their credit, the strategy has proved pretty successful and knife crime is at a record low.

In 2013, however, Police Scotland was created. The then Chief Constable of Strathclyde, Stephen House, was appointed Chief Constable of the new Scottish force. Despite assurances that the new force would be responsive through its 14 divisional commanders to local needs and priorities, a number of Key Performance Indicators were established, by which all divisions would be measured. One of these KPIs was the number of stop and searches carried out.

The simple fact is, however, that the endemic knife carrying of west central Scotland simply does not apply elsewhere in the country. Kids in Inverness, Edinburgh, Dumfries and Perth don't reach for the machete when they go out to meet their pals. In my 30 years working in urban and rural areas in the east of Scotland, I rarely dealt with youths carrying knives. Not surprisingly, parents of young people now being rounded up and told to empty their pockets in areas where the police traditionally organised the teens five-a-side football, wondered what the **** was happening and why their generally well-behaved kids were suddenly getting turned over by the Polis.

Senior officers brave enough to call this policy for the public alienating bullshit it is, were removed from operational command positions until House had a compliant senior management to do his bidding. Huge pressure was put on Area Commanders (Chief Inspectors) to meet KPI targets, including removal from post if unsuccessful, and replacement by a former Strathclyde officer. The Lothians and Scottish Borders Division, for example, now has three ex-Strathclyde Superintendents from its management team of five. In that environment, it's little wonder that inspectors, sergeants and ultimately, constables, feel the heat as well.

'Consensual' stop and search is bullshit. With one or two exceptions, you either have reasonable grounds to suspect or you don't. If you do, the relevant statute gives you the authority to search someone. If you don't have reasonable grounds to suspect, the use of 'consensual' search is unethical, if not downright unlawful.

So that's it. The desire by a managerialist chief constable to apply a strategy designed for one part of the country to the whole, demanding the use of iffy powers and dismissing anyone who questions the policy. I'm surprised that no solicitors have seen the class action potential in this.
 
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#20
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-31377373

Already making demands before the votes are in. Why anyone would listen to the SNP regarding finances after the whole ref revolved around dreamed up oil prices is beyond on me. Here's someone who thinks Austerity is working.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jan/16/imf-chief-hails-uk-economic-recovery
Well that would be nice. A Labour Party in Government with a weak, useless PM not merely in the grip of Unions but having to hose vast amounts of cash North of the border to appease the SNP.

With Alex Salmond as Deputy PM.
 

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