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Saudi Journalist Disappears in Saudi Consulate in Turkey

US Secretary of State - Mike Pompeo - arrives shortly in Ankara to discuss with Erdoğan his meetings with the King and MBS in KSA. His meetings are likely to be a bit more cordial now that Pastor Brunson has returned to the US, however an article in the pro-Government Daily Sabah warns that US-Turkish relations are still fraught with issues - such as the continued US support for the Syrian Kurd dominated SDF and the YPG in NE Syria.

As I mentioned some pages back, Erdoğan has not been his bellicose self on this issue, which is unusual given his usual (and strategic) emnity with KSA. Why?
  • There are suggestions of a deal with KSA, who have been making overtures to the PYD (the political arm of the YPG) in recent weeks. Ordinarily this would enrage not only Erdoğan, but most Turks, who regard - with good justification - the PYD to be a continuum of the murderous PKK,
  • Erdoğan has been busily repairing his international relationships. He made a successful visit to the UK in March and a very recent state visit to Germany; the Netherlands have dispatched an ambassador to Ankara after a 2 year hiatus. And, of course, recent moves to normalise relations with the US. Thus he could be using this crises as an opportunity to show his as a statesman of magnanimous standing in the IC (and knowing that KSA now owe him 'big time').
  • The growing narrative of some rogue operatives who had an 'oops' moment in the Consulate suits all parties. Turkey can demonstrate that they diligently investigated this (they have); KSA can appear a little contrite and punish these 'rogue elements' (the CG has been recalled to Riyadh); the UK and US can return to status quo ante after a cooling off period and Erdoğan can claim to have brokered all of this and reaffirm his standing as a regional leader.
The next week or two will see this issue move on from the grisly investigation and into the world of international relations and damage limitation, and should be very interesting.
 
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Trump is clutching at straws, hoping he can get away with believing the implausible pack of lies offered by the KSA. Why? because of the effect on jobs of a stoppage of US arms sales.


Who sups with the devil must use a long spoon.


ETA today's news is that Kashoggi was dismembered, while still alive, on the consul-general's desk.
 
Trump compared the Khashoggi incident in Istanbul to the Kavanaugh circus in the US.
Trump criticizes rush to condemn Saudi Arabia over missing journalist | CBC News

I interpret this as meaning that it is now political and finding out what happens matters less than not being seen to be wrong.

The ruling party in Turkey have said they will not accept a "whitewash" of the investigation.

If this is sincere, then it sounds like anything which looks like letting the Saudis off the hook will not go over well with the wider political scene in Turkey.

More businesses have pulled out of the planned Saudi business conference, including the heads of HSBC, Standard Chartered Bank, and Credit Suisse.


Influential US Senator Lindsey Graham said he believed that Mohammed bin Salman was responsible for the murder of Khashoggi, and that he "has got to go." Graham plans to "sanction the hell out of Saudi Arabia."

This could be a very significant political development, particularly if Graham (a prominent Republican) gets more political support for this in the coming months.
I'd suggest the only change of any significance is that there's no change of any significance, and that those who do know anything of significance, namely the Consul and possibly others from the Consulate, have been allowed to leave Turkey and return to the KSA with no questions being asked, no requests for them to remain, no attempt to detain them until such a request could be approved, no request to talk to them in them in the KSA (for example when Pompeo was there) and minimal publicity apart from as footnotes to other articles.

All that's left in Turkey are minor Manuel's who can honestly and pointlessly say 'I know nothing' and a lot of circumstantial but inconclusive physical evidence.
 
My old Granddad told me a few stories about these Arab types - from during his war days. Needless to say he hated them and didn't trust them one bit. As I get older and wiser to the world - I pretty much can see where he was coming from......this kind of activity carried out in Turkey by the Saudi's only reaffirms what I already suspected. I just hope and pray that one day a rogue asteroid hits the middle east and wipes it out - end of problem!

[SARCASM]Totally reasonable response[/SARCASM]

Harold Shipman - Wikipedia
Fred West - Wikipedia
Trevor Hardy - Wikipedia

etc ad infinitum.

I will never understand the mentality that assumes all people are alike just because of [nationality / place / skin colour / whatever]. Particularly when I'm almost certain, should I be bothered, I could find stuff with you whining about how someone was applying this same mentality to you in a way you dislike.

Your neighbour might be a twat. That makes you a twat too, right? Totally fair.
 
US Secretary of State - Mike Pompeo - arrives shortly in Ankara to discuss with Erdoğan his meetings with the King and MBS in KSA. His meetings are likely to be a bit more cordial now that Pastor Brunson has returned to the US, however an article in the pro-Government Daily Sabah warns that US-Turkish relations are still fraught with issues - such as the continued US support for the Syrian Kurd dominated FSA and the YPG in NE Syria.

As I mentioned some pages back, Erdoğan has not been his bellicose self on this issue, which is unusual given his usual (and strategic) emnity with KSA. Why?
  • There are suggestions of a deal with KSA, who have been making overtures to the PYD (the political arm of the YPG) in recent weeks. Ordinarily this would enrage not only Erdoğan, but most Turks, who regard - with good justification - the PYD to be a continuum of the murderous PKK,
  • Erdoğan has been busily repairing his international relationships. He made a successful visit to the UK in March and a very recent state visit to Germany; the Netherlands have dispatched an ambassador to Ankara after a 2 year hiatus. And, of course, recent moves to normalise relations with the US. Thus he could be using this crises as an opportunity to show his as a statesman of magnanimous standing in the IC (and knowing that KSA now owe him 'big time').
  • The growing narrative of some rogue operatives who had an 'oops' moment in the Consulate suits all parties. Turkey can demonstrate that they diligently investigated this (they have); KSA can appear a little contrite and punish these 'rogue elements' (the CG has been recalled to Riyadh); the UK and US can return to status quo ante after a cooling off period and Erdoğan can claim to have brokered all of this and reaffirm his standing as a regional leader.
The next week or two will see this issue move on from the grisly investigation and into the world of international relations and damage limitation, and should be very interesting.
I think the big question is whether Mohamed bin Salman (or Mohamed Bone Saw) manages to avoid any blame, or whether he is disgraced and forced from power by his peers. He is already unpopular in some quarters, and I suspect that some would see this as an opportunity to displace him.

I don't think it is in the interests of the West to see the Saudi government as a whole overthrown or isolated. Libya, Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan are disasters enough without adding Saudi Arabia to the list.

However, we would like to see Saudi Arabia's behaviour changed, and get them to wind their necks in on a lot of issues. Many press stories have blamed bin Salman for the current erratic and reckless behaviour of Saudi Arabia (in many areas, not just this one) and it may not be a bad thing if power there were to pass into a more cautious set of hands.
 
US Secretary of State - Mike Pompeo - arrives shortly in Ankara to discuss with Erdoğan his meetings with the King and MBS in KSA. His meetings are likely to be a bit more cordial now that Pastor Brunson has returned to the US, however an article in the pro-Government Daily Sabah warns that US-Turkish relations are still fraught with issues - such as the continued US support for the Syrian Kurd dominated SDF and the YPG in NE Syria.

As I mentioned some pages back, Erdoğan has not been his bellicose self on this issue, which is unusual given his usual (and strategic) emnity with KSA. Why?
  • There are suggestions of a deal with KSA, who have been making overtures to the PYD (the political arm of the YPG) in recent weeks. Ordinarily this would enrage not only Erdoğan, but most Turks, who regard - with good justification - the PYD to be a continuum of the murderous PKK,
  • Erdoğan has been busily repairing his international relationships. He made a successful visit to the UK in March and a very recent state visit to Germany; the Netherlands have dispatched an ambassador to Ankara after a 2 year hiatus. And, of course, recent moves to normalise relations with the US. Thus he could be using this crises as an opportunity to show his as a statesman of magnanimous standing in the IC (and knowing that KSA now owe him 'big time').
  • The growing narrative of some rogue operatives who had an 'oops' moment in the Consulate suits all parties. Turkey can demonstrate that they diligently investigated this (they have); KSA can appear a little contrite and punish these 'rogue elements' (the CG has been recalled to Riyadh); the UK and US can return to status quo ante after a cooling off period and Erdoğan can claim to have brokered all of this and reaffirm his standing as a regional leader.
The next week or two will see this issue move on from the grisly investigation and into the world of international relations and damage limitation, and should be very interesting.
Could Erdoğan also use this incident to create some leverage re. Qatar? (would the KSA give any ground on that issue?).
 
I think the big question is whether Mohamed bin Salman (or Mohamed Bone Saw) manages to avoid any blame, or whether he is disgraced and forced from power by his peers. He is already unpopular in some quarters, and I suspect that some would see this as an opportunity to displace him.

I don't think it is in the interests of the West to see the Saudi government as a whole overthrown or isolated. Libya, Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan are disasters enough without adding Saudi Arabia to the list.

However, we would like to see Saudi Arabia's behaviour changed, and get them to wind their necks in on a lot of issues. Many press stories have blamed bin Salman for the current erratic and reckless behaviour of Saudi Arabia (in many areas, not just this one) and it may not be a bad thing if power there were to pass into a more cautious set of hands.

The other day the UNSG expressed concern about this ‘new normal’ behaviour of ‘offing’ opponents Overseas, and, basically sticking two fingers up to international norms of behaviour. He’s absolutely right; Russia has been at it, DPRK, KSA, Syria, China (apparently) and Turkey (in the past); the significant difference in this unsavoury case was using diplomatic privilege and protection to carry out this gross act.

The West have to be united in their opprobrium and actions to stop this.
 
And the Saudis nominally have access to nuclear weapons..... there may be SPF 50 million trouble ahead in the Middle East
 
I don't think it is in the interests of the West to see the Saudi government as a whole overthrown or isolated. Libya, Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan are disasters enough without adding Saudi Arabia to the list.
[irony]Previously I though that the only objectives that the West has are democracy, human rights, peace, rule of law[/irony]
Of course, you are absolutely right.
However, we would like to see Saudi Arabia's behaviour changed, and get them to wind their necks in on a lot of issues.
By 'we' you apparently mean the West. As for some other countries (like Iraq) then 'would like' meant ... [irony]liberation from brutal disctator using peace-keeping operations[/irony]. What means do you think the West has to change political regime in the KSA?
 
ETA today's news is that Kashoggi was dismembered, while still alive, on the consul-general's desk.

Goodness.

Having seen a few post-mortems, cutting up a dead body makes enough mess.

I would imagine if that it true, the area would light up like the drum solo at a blue man concert under forensic examination.

c0f61f54-fb22-4bf9-b34a-d99772f76d9d_393021_tablet_landscape_large_16_9.jpeg
 
I'd suggest the only change of any significance is that there's no change of any significance, and that those who do know anything of significance, namely the Consul and possibly others from the Consulate, have been allowed to leave Turkey and return to the KSA with no questions being asked, no requests for them to remain, no attempt to detain them until such a request could be approved, no request to talk to them in them in the KSA (for example when Pompeo was there) and minimal publicity apart from as footnotes to other articles.

All that's left in Turkey are minor Manuel's who can honestly and pointlessly say 'I know nothing' and a lot of circumstantial but inconclusive physical evidence.
Very dangerous precedent for the Receiving State to detain a person who has diplomatic privilege: remember, reciprocity...
 
[irony]Previously I though that the only objectives that the West has are democracy, human rights, peace, rule of law[/irony]
Of course, you are absolutely right.
As opposed to Russia just stealing parts of neighbours :rolleyes:. Syria shows exactly what happens when the West doesn't get involved. CW, carpet bombing, the lot.

You'll always get people quoting things about the West's interventions and saying nothing on Russian annexation for example.
By 'we' you apparently mean the West. As for some other countries (like Iraq) then 'would like' meant ... [irony]liberation from brutal disctator using peace-keeping operations[/irony]. What means do you think the West has to change political regime in the KSA?
That would be 'regime change' surely and apparently 'the West' are against that. Something about the UN Charter?

I suppose as its KSA some would agree with it though ..........
 
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