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US Secretary of State - Mike Pompeo - arrives shortly in Ankara to discuss with Erdoğan his meetings with the King and MBS in KSA. His meetings are likely to be a bit more cordial now that Pastor Brunson has returned to the US, however an article in the pro-Government Daily Sabah warns that US-Turkish relations are still fraught with issues - such as the continued US support for the Syrian Kurd dominated SDF and the YPG in NE Syria.
As I mentioned some pages back, Erdoğan has not been his bellicose self on this issue, which is unusual given his usual (and strategic) emnity with KSA. Why?
As I mentioned some pages back, Erdoğan has not been his bellicose self on this issue, which is unusual given his usual (and strategic) emnity with KSA. Why?
- There are suggestions of a deal with KSA, who have been making overtures to the PYD (the political arm of the YPG) in recent weeks. Ordinarily this would enrage not only Erdoğan, but most Turks, who regard - with good justification - the PYD to be a continuum of the murderous PKK,
- Erdoğan has been busily repairing his international relationships. He made a successful visit to the UK in March and a very recent state visit to Germany; the Netherlands have dispatched an ambassador to Ankara after a 2 year hiatus. And, of course, recent moves to normalise relations with the US. Thus he could be using this crises as an opportunity to show his as a statesman of magnanimous standing in the IC (and knowing that KSA now owe him 'big time').
- The growing narrative of some rogue operatives who had an 'oops' moment in the Consulate suits all parties. Turkey can demonstrate that they diligently investigated this (they have); KSA can appear a little contrite and punish these 'rogue elements' (the CG has been recalled to Riyadh); the UK and US can return to status quo ante after a cooling off period and Erdoğan can claim to have brokered all of this and reaffirm his standing as a regional leader.
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