Saudi Journalist Disappears in Saudi Consulate in Turkey

seaweed

LE
Book Reviewer
Fancy that, the Russian charm offensive has turned up here too, in this spat between Turkey and Saudi.

Never mind, they shall not have Constantinople.
 
(...) I don't think that it is that simple. Just remove only one man and … what would happen then? The nature of Saudi regime anyway will not change dramatically.
Bin Salman is viewed as impulsive and lacking in caution or good judgment. Others are likely to be less so.

It is quite possible that the new effective decision maker in the KSA would stop all reforms but would be more careful and pragmatic. With high living standards in the kingdom it could last for decades.
Saudi Arabia have a rapidly growing population and an economy that is running up against its fundamental limits. It will take them decades to deal with that, if they can at all.
 
... and now the EU's banned the same 18 who aren't allowed to leave the KSA / have been arrested / are up for execution, etc, who've been barred from the USA. That'll stop them doing it again .....
 
Bin Salman is viewed as impulsive and lacking in caution or good judgment. Others are likely to be less so.
Maybe... But what the West could do with it? It looks as only wait and see.
Saudi Arabia have a rapidly growing population and an economy that is running up against its fundamental limits. It will take them decades to deal with that, if they can at all.
Growth of population is not fantastically high.
Demographics of Saudi Arabia - Wikipedia
It is about 1.5% per year with 2.26 children born per woman.
As for economy of the KSA then you apparently underestimate its potential (including human potential).
Saudi Arabia - Wikipedia
The kingdom is categorized as a World Bank high-income economy with a high Human Development Index
Serious large-scale agricultural development began in the 1970s... Saudi Arabia is now completely self-sufficient in a number of foodstuffs, including meat, milk and eggs. The country exports wheat, dates, dairy products, eggs, fish, poultry, fruits, vegetables and flowers to markets around the world.
The Kingdom likewise has some of the most modern and largest dairy farms in the Middle East. Milk production boasts a remarkably productive annual rate of 1,800 gallons per cow, one of the highest in the world.
By 1984, it had become self-sufficient in wheat. Shortly thereafter, Saudi Arabia began exporting wheat to some thirty countries, including China and the former Soviet Union
Saudi Arabia is a major exporter of fruits and vegetables
In 2018 the Al Jouf Agricultural Development Company received a certificate of merit from The Guinness World Records for the largest modern olive plantation in the world. The farm covers 7730 hectares and has 5 million olive trees.
The KSA is not (as many think) primitive medieval country with economy based only on oil. Oil industry (of course super important) is less than 50% of Saudi economy.
The oil industry constitutes about 45% of Saudi Arabia's nominal gross domestic product
It should be said that there is a fast growing community of Saudi intellectuals including high class scientists.
As of 2018, Saudi Arabia ranks 28 worldwide in terms of high-quality research output according to the renowned scientific journal Nature.[544] This makes Saudi Arabia the best performing Middle Eastern, Arab and Muslim country.
From my point of view, later or sooner we will see a conflict between Saudi intellectuals (mr.Khashoggi is an example of such an intellectual) and the royal family that uses medieval methods to rule the country. The murder looks as a precursor, as the first step in this future conflict.
 
From my point of view, later or sooner we will see a conflict between Saudi intellectuals (mr.Khashoggi is an example of such an intellectual) and the royal family that uses medieval methods to rule the country. The murder looks as a precursor, as the first step in this future conflict.
..... and, for a change, you were doing so well until then ..... maybe because up until then you didn't really have to think, just repeat Wiki .....
 
Mohammed bin Salman is scheduled to be at the upcoming G20 summit in Buenos Aires later this month. Saudi crown prince will be at G20 summit later this month: Saudi media | CBC News
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will attend the Group of 20 summit in Buenos Aires later this month, Saudi media reported Monday, potentially bringing him face-to-face with world leaders from the United States, Turkey, Canada and European countries for the first time since the slaying of Jamal Khashoggi.
Turkey's Erdogan is also expected to be there.
The two-day summit begins Nov. 30. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has kept international pressure mounting on the kingdom, is expected to attend.
It is possible that many of the other attendees there will try to avoid being photographed standing too close to bin Salman.
 
As noted on the Yemen thread, the murder of Khashoggi has been undermining the support of Saudi Arabia in their war in Yemen. Airstrikes resume in Yemen after brief lull | CBC News
Western countries have provided arms and intelligence to states in the coalition, but have shown increasing reservations about the war since the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi at Riyadh's consulate in Istanbul last month.
This is an interesting example of the side effects of the Khashoggi affair.
 
(...) As for economy of the KSA then you apparently underestimate its potential (including human potential).
Saudi Arabia - Wikipedia
(...) By 1984, it had become self-sufficient in wheat. Shortly thereafter, Saudi Arabia began exporting wheat to some thirty countries, including China and the former Soviet Union (...)
The WIkipedia article reads like something from the Saudi Ministry of Information. Wheat production stopped years ago, along with many other aspects of agriculture. It was mainly based on fossil water aquifers which are not replenished by rain (as there is very little). In the span of a few years Saudi Arabia squandered most of their groundwater resources on heavily subsidized and wasteful agriculture, and have nothing to show for it. It was a remarkably stupid idea.

There is some sustainable agriculture in the mountains of the southwest, where it has taken place for thousands of years. Likewise, there is some in a number small oases in the desert. Both of these do not amount to a large agricultural industry. They have not found a magic formula for growing crops in the middle of one of the world's driest deserts.

The KSA is not (as many think) primitive medieval country with economy based only on oil. Oil industry (of course super important) is less than 50% of Saudi economy. (...)
Having 45% of their GDP being the petroleum industry is an extraordinary degree of concentration on a single industry. In Canada oil and gas together account for 7% of GDP. In the province of Alberta, almost totally dependent upon oil and gas production, the two account for 25% of provincial GDP.

When you consider that the other half of the Saudi GDP will include construction, telecommunications, finance, retail, education, health care, transportation, etc., then it is easy to see that without petroleum the Saudis really have no economy except that which exists to support the petroleum industry.
 
.... it is easy to see that without petroleum the Saudis really have no economy except that which exists to support the petroleum industry.
That's rather like saying that without water the Scots have no whisky.

The unavoidable fact, however much it doesn't suit whatever your agenda is, is that the Saudis have plenty of petroleum which the world needs and which they can't get in the absence of other viable sources ... and I say 'viable' rather than 'alternative' because while there are plenty of alternatives, from Iran to fracking to hydrogen, few are viable in the quantities required and so it suits the West to support and profit from one of the most unpleasant regimes in the world.
..... later or sooner we will see a conflict between Saudi intellectuals (mr.Khashoggi is an example of such an intellectual) and the royal family that uses medieval methods to rule the country. The murder looks as a precursor, as the first step in this future conflict.
The idea that Saudi "intellectuals" are going to take on and replace the house of Saud is equally if not more absurd. While they undoubtedly have their supporters, as they do from Iran to Iraq, from Riyadh to Rustaq, the idea that some sort of western (or even Soviet) style libertarian intellectual democracy would be widely acceptable or a possible option in the Middle East has been proven time and again to be a delusional and costly fantasy.
 
The WIkipedia article reads like something from the Saudi Ministry of Information. Wheat production stopped years ago, along with many other aspects of agriculture. It was mainly based on fossil water aquifers which are not replenished by rain (as there is very little). In the span of a few years Saudi Arabia squandered most of their groundwater resources on heavily subsidized and wasteful agriculture, and have nothing to show for it. It was a remarkably stupid idea.

There is some sustainable agriculture in the mountains of the southwest, where it has taken place for thousands of years. Likewise, there is some in a number small oases in the desert. Both of these do not amount to a large agricultural industry. They have not found a magic formula for growing crops in the middle of one of the world's driest deserts.


Having 45% of their GDP being the petroleum industry is an extraordinary degree of concentration on a single industry. In Canada oil and gas together account for 7% of GDP. In the province of Alberta, almost totally dependent upon oil and gas production, the two account for 25% of provincial GDP.

When you consider that the other half of the Saudi GDP will include construction, telecommunications, finance, retail, education, health care, transportation, etc., then it is easy to see that without petroleum the Saudis really have no economy except that which exists to support the petroleum industry.
As for Wheat production then it is too expensive in Saudi Arabia. It is impossible to compete on this market with US/Canada/Argentina/Russia.
Yes, indeed Saudi economy is oil based. But it is not right to suggest that Saudi Arabia reached natural borders in development of its economy, that oil forever will remain its the only base.

As for Canada then famous expression springs in mind - Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Economy of Canada - Wikipedia
The service sector in Canada is vast and multifaceted, employing about three quarters of Canadians and accounting for 70% of GDP
So is it right to suggest that Canadian economy is 'services based'? Yes and no. Because mainly you are unable to export services.
The largest employer is the retail sector, employing almost 12% of Canadians.
Yes, the retail sector contributes to Canadian GDP a lot but has zero export potential. As for export then
In 2009, agriculture, energy, forestry and mining exports accounted for about 58% of Canada's total exports.[33] Machinery, equipment, automotive products and other manufactures accounted for a further 38% of exports in 2009.[33] In 2009, exports accounted for about 30% of Canada's GDP.
As export is essentially important for Canadian economy then we see that in fact oil sector with its relatively modest contribution to the GDP is one of the corner stones of Canadian economy because many other sectors (including the retail sector) are this or that way connected to or/and dependent on the oil sector.
The situation in Russian economy is the same
Economy of Russia - Wikipedia
As of 2012 the oil-and-gas sector accounted for 16% of GDP
But Russian economy is essentially oil-gas based.

Let's suppose that sizes of oil-gas sectors in Canadian, Russian, Saudi economies will not change in the near future but its share will fall.
Now respective shares look this way
Canada - 7%
Russia - 16%
KSA - 45%
It is not something absolutely unthinkable that Russia in coming years will approach to Canadian level. 10-11% look as a proper target. But it means 50% growth of GDP.
The KSA has potential to approach to the Russian current level and even 30% share of oil sector would mean 50% growth of GDP as well.
So, really the KSA has reserves to expand its economy, made services as its main component.

PS. I have forgotten about cannabis. Now Canada has good prospects to expand cannabis related sector of economy.
Non-medical cannabis was worth $3.3 billion to Canada's economy in 2016: StatCan
The illegal production and consumption of non-medical cannabis was worth about $3.3 billion in 2016, according to a Statistics Canada analysis of the underground economy.
 
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The service sector in Canada is vast and multifaceted, employing about three quarters of Canadians and accounting for 70% of GDP ....
.... In 2009, exports accounted for about 30% of Canada's GDP.


Unless exports have declined dramatically since 2009, then since 70+30 =100 that would mean that 100% of Canada 's economy / GDP is made up of exports and the service sector.

Nothing produced for the home market or local consumption, no agriculture, no oil and gas production, etc, etc.

As you say so appropriately, "lies, damned lies, and statistics".

Ho hummm ... back to Khashoggi, Trump's due to announce the US findings today.
 
The idea that Saudi "intellectuals" are going to take on and replace the house of Saud is equally if not more absurd.
Today from the first glance it looks as an absurd. Tomorrow - as something possible and later as something obvious.
Khashoggi is not an exception but rather is a symbol of the trend.
 
Today from the first glance it looks as an absurd. Tomorrow - as something possible and later as something obvious.
Khashoggi is not an exception but rather is a symbol of the trend.
Tomorrow pigs might fly. Today, there is no "trend" in the KSA or elsewhere in the Middle East for anyone but Muslim radicals to take over - a trend that, rather than being an intellectual, Khashoggi was arguably part of.
 
Tomorrow pigs might fly. Today, there is no "trend" in the KSA or elsewhere in the Middle East for anyone but Muslim radicals to take over - a trend that, rather than being an intellectual, Khashoggi was arguably part of.
There is no contradiction. It is possible to be intellectual and Muslim radical at the same time.
 
There is no contradiction. It is possible to be intellectual and Muslim radical at the same time.
I never said or even suggested there was any "contradiction", however all too evidently very few are both.

Unless you're suggesting, though, that they're one and the same thing and synonymous, the idea that there's a "trend" that Saudi intellectuals are going to take on and replace the House of Saud, and that Khoshoggi's somehow "a symbol of the trend" then you're back to spouting unadulterated nonsense.
 
I never said or even suggested there was any "contradiction", however all too evidently very few are both.

Unless you're suggesting, though, that they're one and the same thing and synonymous, the idea that there's a "trend" that Saudi intellectuals are going to take on and replace the House of Saud, and that Khoshoggi's somehow "a symbol of the trend" then you're back to spouting unadulterated nonsense.
By 'intellectuals' I meant different people - businesmen, lawyers, journalists, officers, scientists, doctors, teachers... At certain point they could demand fair share in power. Let's recall anti-monarchist revolutions in Great Britain, France, Russia. Each time there was a conflict between intelelctual elite that (at least partially) reflected aspirations of ordinary people and absolutist power.
In Saudi Arabia we see in fact medieval rulers and formidable economy that needs intellectuals. So there is quite natural source of the conflict. But absolutist rulers in the KSA maintain high living standards and it softens the conflict, though not removes it completely.
Of course late Khashoggi was an intellectual and at the same time he supported ideas of the Muslim Brotherhood. I don't exclude that the future revolution in Saudi Arabia would be instigated under flags of the Muslim Brotherhood.
 

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