Saudi Journalist Disappears in Saudi Consulate in Turkey

To clarify things, the links you have provided as evidence say that Iran exports nowhere near 6.5 million barrels of crude oil per day let alone France import anywhere near that much. There is no typo in the YCharts link you provided, you are just reading them wrong. You are mixing up tons and barrels and days, months and years.
You're being even more obtuse than you were before and, yet again, saying I've posted things I very clearly haven't.

To clarify and confirm:

My original post about the amount of Iranian oil France imported was wrong. WRONG. WRONG. WRONG.

I have no problem at all in admitting that and making it abundantly clear when I'm wrong.

The links I provided confirm that and confirm that you were equally, and equally importantly, completely wrong that France's " main sources are Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, in that order." That is out of date, and their main source for the last three years has been Iran.

The "Y charts link I provided" has nothing to do with my original mistake. It simply confirms my correction.
Iran is not France's biggest oil supplier, and France is not excessively dependent upon them.
Utter, absolute and total bollox, as confirmed beyond any possible doubt by the several links I posted and any other recent reports (since 2015). The headline in the first link ("Iran becomes top oil exporter to France") is pretty clear!!!
Iran Becomes Top Oil Exporter to FrancePressTV-France’s imports of oil from Iran jump in Jan.
EU Crude Oil Imports and supply cost - Energy - European Commission
Crude Oil Imports by Country

If oil supplies from KSA ceased, for any reason, they would very clearly be "excessively dependent" on Iran. It's unavoidable - if not Iran, who else could keep up the supply?
To get to the main point, @Crash said nothing in his post about cutting off Saudi Arabia's oil exports. I haven't recommended it either. Crash suggested restricting the travel of senior level Saudi officials.
I had previously suggested that narrowly targeted sanctions that affected the top Saudi figures such as limits on foreign travel, imports of luxury items, etc.
It may be a shock to your ego, but it's hardly up to you (or @Crash). It's a KSA threat, hence worth discussing, not dismissing.
Now the Saudis on the other hand have made heavy hints about shutting off their own oil exports as a "sanction" against the west if anyone were to try to hold them to account for what they have done. I have previously stated that I thought this was an empty threat and provided reasons why I thought this was so.
Indeed you did, and I explained why they were invalid back in post #798:
"KSA is the world's second largest producer of oil, producing 13% of the world's oil, and the world's largest exporter, exporting 13.6% to China, 11.3% to Japan, 10.7% to India, 9.8% to the US, 9.1% to South Korea and 4.7% to Singapore. That's 60% of it's oil exports to only six countries, so straightaway it's clearly not a question of how much "the rest of the world needs their oil" but of how much those six countries do, just as it's not a question of how much KSA needs to sell to the rest of the world but how much it needs to sell to those six.

While those six may not have much in common politically, culturally or economically the one thing they have got in common is that, albeit for very different reasons, they all need the oil and they'd all find it difficult to find an alternative source of oil."


I notice you haven't tried to counter any of those points, so if you don't understand any or disagree with the facts I'll be happy to clarify or provide definitive links.
 
My long-held impression is that the House of Saud has for a long time only remained in power by bribing the population with a relatively luxurious tax-free existence. Once that's gone, there's trouble - and sanctioning the rest of the world in terms of withholding oil isn't going to help, there. Is that too far wrong?
I think that's probably very fair, and the same goes for other countries, even outside the Gulf such as Brunei.

The point I'm making is I think it all depends how much oil they withhold, and whose, since they don't have to withhold oil from " the rest of the world ". Even if they only supply their top half dozen customers they still get 60% of their revenue, and I don't see too much outcry from any of those six - and China, India and Singapore, at least, haven't said much and are hardly likely to be influenced too much by the West.
 
I think that's probably very fair, and the same goes for other countries, even outside the Gulf such as Brunei.

The point I'm making is I think it all depends how much oil they withhold, and whose, since they don't have to withhold oil from " the rest of the world ". Even if they only supply their top half dozen customers they still get 60% of their revenue, and I don't see too much outcry from any of those six - and China, India and Singapore, at least, haven't said much and are hardly likely to be influenced too much by the West.
From memory, and also alluded to in another thread on here:

The Saudis tried to wipe out US fracking by dropping the price of a barrel of oil. The problem being that while fracking has been curtailed it hasn't stopped and nor has development of the process. The price point at which fracking again becomes viable has also fallen, therefore. So, the Saudis played their trump card [sic] and have failed.

The Orange One is in a tricky position here - especially after his tirade the other month about Iran being the biggest exporter of terrorism.
 
Thanks. I start immunotherapy shortly as the tumours will return to the lung (and probably the brain). I’m missing work but enjoying being at home sorting stuff out and pottering around in the shed. And commenting on Arrse.

Could be a lot worse; I could be a Saudi dissident or journalist.
I wish you all the best. Btw, 25 years ago the doctors on a base of X-ray images suspected that I might suffer from lung cancer or tuberculosis but it was relatively harmless sarcoidosis.
 
(...) It's a KSA threat, hence worth discussing, not dismissing.
Indeed you did, and I explained why they were invalid back in post #798:
"KSA is the world's second largest producer of oil, producing 13% of the world's oil, and the world's largest exporter, exporting 13.6% to China, 11.3% to Japan, 10.7% to India, 9.8% to the US, 9.1% to South Korea and 4.7% to Singapore. That's 60% of it's oil exports to only six countries, so straightaway it's clearly not a question of how much "the rest of the world needs their oil" but of how much those six countries do, just as it's not a question of how much KSA needs to sell to the rest of the world but how much it needs to sell to those six.

While those six may not have much in common politically, culturally or economically the one thing they have got in common is that, albeit for very different reasons, they all need the oil and they'd all find it difficult to find an alternative source of oil."

I notice you haven't tried to counter any of those points, so if you don't understand any or disagree with the facts I'll be happy to clarify or provide definitive links.
Oil is a global commodity, and oil cargoes get sold and re-sold in transit. If Saudi Arabia simply shuts off their oil exports, then the remaining oil on the world market will get redistributed and the global price will rise. If Saudi Arabia says they're not going to sell to specific countries, then again the oil on the rest of the market will get redistributed, possibly with very slightly higher transportation costs as tanker capacity is used less efficiently.

Since China, India, South Korea, Singapore, and possibly Japan are unlikely to involve themselves in the current situation, Saudi Arabia would likely continue selling oil to them. The end result would be that they would take a larger share of Saudi Arabia's exports at a discount and their normal suppliers would pick up business in the countries that Saudi Arabia is boycotting.

Saudi Arabia declared an oil embargo against Canada a couple of months ago. Nobody really noticed or cared, least of all Canada.
 
From memory, and also alluded to in another thread on here: ...
..So, the Saudis played their trump card [sic] and have failed.
Not sure how that was a failure ... they're still exporting vast quantities of oil, including to the US, and in the absence of alternative suppliers such as Iran there's still no viable alternative.
The Orange One is in a tricky position here - especially after his tirade the other month about Iran being the biggest exporter of terrorism.
It really is one or the other. ... and while I think Trump has exacerbated if not partly led to the situation with his rants against the press and open mutual appreciation society with the KSA, I doubt if any previous president would be playing it any differently under the same circumstances even if they probably wouldn't be so brazenly mercenary about it.
 
Not sure how that was a failure ... they're still exporting vast quantities of oil, including to the US, and in the absence of alternative suppliers such as Iran there's still no viable alternative.
It has permanently reduced to floor price of oil - or so friends in the industry tell me.

It really is one or the other. ... and while I think Trump has exacerbated if not partly led to the situation with his rants against the press and open mutual appreciation society with the KSA, I doubt if any previous president would be playing it any differently under the same circumstances even if they probably wouldn't be so brazenly mercenary about it.
Aye.
 
Oil is a global commodity, and oil cargoes get sold and re-sold in transit. If Saudi Arabia simply shuts off their oil exports, then the remaining oil on the world market will get redistributed and the global price will rise. If Saudi Arabia says they're not going to sell to specific countries, then again the oil on the rest of the market will get redistributed, possibly with very slightly higher transportation costs as tanker capacity is used less efficiently.

Since China, India, South Korea, Singapore, and possibly Japan are unlikely to involve themselves in the current situation, Saudi Arabia would likely continue selling oil to them. The end result would be that they would take a larger share of Saudi Arabia's exports at a discount and their normal suppliers would pick up business in the countries that Saudi Arabia is boycotting.

Saudi Arabia declared an oil embargo against Canada a couple of months ago. Nobody really noticed or cared, least of all Canada.
I suggested though that a coordinated expulsion of Saudi diplomats would be a proportional response, given that this was the response used against Russia in the case of the Salisbury incident and that this sort of thing is something the Saudis themselves recently thought was a "sanction" ...
Well I wonder what would have the most effect ... putting up the price of oil in those countries KSA chose not to sell oil to, or those countries expelling KSA diplomats (particularly as far from all even in the EU expelled Soviet diplomats, and most that did only expelled literally one or two).

... hard one that ... or maybe not.
 
Well ... that must have been as much of a disappointment for some as it was a relief for others.
Erdogan is giving the Saudi King a chance to consider whether KSA interests are served by Mbs being his successor; or to reduce the role of Mbs in the leadership of the country. He's handling things well (he's given us some additional detail, stating that the murder was planned and not accidental, for example) whilst retaining the video and audio evidence [if such exists] for future use, in case the Saudi king is not as helpful as Erdogan hopes.

It was an anticlimax however! :)
 
My long-held impression is that the House of Saud has for a long time only remained in power by bribing the population with a relatively luxurious tax-free existence. Once that's gone, there's trouble - and sanctioning the rest of the world in terms of withholding oil isn't going to help, there. Is that too far wrong?
There has been internal dissent for quite some time, which ironically aided MBS in his bid for power and may help him keep it. He's the one who is modernising the economy and trying to wean them off oil.
 
Did you have to live in them special compounds and stuff for westerners? I am assuming booze was also out of question apart from smuggled in/ know that guy behind the alley/ home brewed hooch, R&Rs in other ME cities where you can buy it, like Dubai etc.?
A long time ago for myself as well but, knew more alcoholics in KSA than I ever did or do in the UK. Plenty available, as long as you didn't encroach on anyone's territory, stayed on the compound and played nice no problems.

I didn't quite socialise with the whole compound gang though so had a different perspective.
 
Erdogan is giving the Saudi King a chance to consider whether KSA interests are served by Mbs being his successor; or to reduce the role of Mbs in the leadership of the country.
... and then the cow flew over the moon.

He had all the aces and threw them away, one by one. Now he's just passed, .
He's handling things well (he's given us some additional detail, stating that the murder was planned and not accidental, for example) whilst retaining the video and audio evidence [if such exists] for future use, in case the Saudi king is not as helpful as Erdogan hopes
Oh perleeze ... where's the "additional detail"?
  • That he's got no idea where the body is?
  • That he doesn't know what Turks, if any, were involved?
  • That he doesn't know who ordered it?
  • That it was probably planned in advance?
  • That it wasn't a peaceful euthanasia?
  • That he wants those 'responsible' tried in Turkey?
  • That Erdogan's mummy taught him that if you can't say something nice about someone it's better to say nothing at all?
It was like listening to Vanesse May saying 'we're 95% of the way there' then having to watch her dancing, thinking 'here it comes ... any minute now ...'
 
... and then the cow flew over the moon.

He had all the aces and threw them away, one by one. Now he's just passed, . Oh perleeze ... where's the "additional detail"?
  • That he's got no idea where the body is?
  • That he doesn't know what Turks, if any, were involved?
  • That he doesn't know who ordered it?
  • That it was probably planned in advance?
  • That it wasn't a peaceful euthanasia?
  • That he wants those 'responsible' tried in Turkey?
  • That Erdogan's mummy taught him that if you can't say something nice about someone it's better to say nothing at all?
It was like listening to Vanesse May saying 'we're 95% of the way there' then having to watch her dancing, thinking 'here it comes ... any minute now ...'
He (Erdoğan) clearly [to me] differentiated between the King and - by inference - Mbs. It seems likely that's an attempt to cause the King to reflect on the impact of the latter on Saudi foreign relations.
I could of course be wrong. I am not an expert on the region by any means; just an interested amateur.
 

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