Saudi Journalist Disappears in Saudi Consulate in Turkey

What on earth makes you think anything meaningful will happen from our side?

Qahtani's are always the mugs...
Jesus.
Big speech tomorrow from Erdoğan re. this matter. Any evidence released at the same time (or via Twitter) will be very interesting.
The Saudis seem to have planned not 'just' a murder but something akin to a modern version of a medieval execution, or something one would expect from IS.
 
Jesus.
Big speech tomorrow from Erdoğan re. this matter. Any evidence released at the same time (or via Twitter) will be very interesting.
The Saudis seem to have planned not 'just' a murder but something akin to a modern version of a medieval execution, or something one would expect from IS.
This is the way it is in the ME. Everywhere.
 
What on earth makes you think anything meaningful will happen from our side?

Qahtani's are always the mugs...
Oh shitty shit! If Erdogan drops that tomorrow, MbS is toast. As Ive mentioned before Erdogan - a very powerful orator and master of tactics - will use this to completely knock MbS and the vile regime of its perch. Erdogan has many faults and is regularly criticised for his authoritarian approach, but its useful to remind readers that he was democractically elected and faced down the military coup just over two years ago, narrowly avoided assassination. Trump, meanwhile, is being much more skeptical about the thin tissue of lies that MbS has been feeding him; this now raises questions about the probity of son in law’s involvement with him.

Ok, what sort of sanctions would be effective? Best would be a travel ban on senior Saudis. Let them enjoy summer without travelling to Cote d’azure or Knightsbridge...
 
/Snip
Ok, what sort of sanctions would be effective? Best would building a four mile high wall round the whole third world craphouse and filling it with seawater.
End of issues with 12th century towelheads and oil can be retrieved using North Sea technology.
Either that or convert all sand in the area to glass. Still no loss to the planet.
 
Oh shitty shit! If Erdogan drops that tomorrow, MbS is toast.
MbS has already foreseen and pre-empted that - Saud al-Qahtani has already been fired for not supervising those under him correctly and exceeding his authority. He can always be arrested as a "rogue element" if Erdogan produces any evidence - which is a very different thing, given the record of differences between him and KSA, to just allegations in a speech or on Twitter.
Ok, what sort of sanctions would be effective ...
It depends what the point is - to punish, to deter, or to encourage regime change? ... and, in all cases, who those imposing the sanctions want to punish, deter, or change to, and if those imposing the sanctions are willing to change their overall policy in the Middle East.

If the former two, ban arms sales and all maintenance and repair programmes; only acceptable if a change in the balance of power is also acceptable.

Effective oil sanctions / boycotts, without alternative sources, are out of the question as already explained. France, for example, currently imports up to 370,000 (edited) barrels of crude oil per day from Iran, but only 80 thousand from KSA, and they may need to find an alternative supplier to Iran very soon which could be problematic if sanctions are applied to KSA as well as Iran.

If the latter, who to? While there are alternatives who might be more pro-reform it's equally likely direct replacements would be even more reactionary and extreme or that there could be a 'Shah of Persia' downfall and effect.
Let them enjoy summer without travelling to Cote d’azure or Knightsbridge...
I'm sure they'd find Hong Kong, Singapore, and Macao pleasant, amongst other alternative destinations ... and I'm not so sure France, for example, would be so willing to apply any sanctions given that they'll need a major new source of oil very soon and these things work both ways.
 
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(...) France, for example, currently imports well over 6.5 million barrels of crude oil per day from Iran, but only 80 thousand from KSA, and they may need to find an alternative supplier to Iran very soon which could be problematic if sanctions are applied to KSA as well as Iran.
(...)
France imports only a small fraction of that amount of oil in total, let alone from any one source, and Iran exports only a fraction of that amount in total to all customers as well. The most recent references that I've seen for France's oil imports says that their main sources are Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, in that order.
 
More on the Khashoggi "double" Video shows 'body double' exiting Saudi Consulate wearing Khashoggi's clothes after killing | CBC News
There is a video in the above news story which I cannot embed here. It shows Khashoggi and also the rather poor "double" who emerged from the consulate wearing his clothes.

After Khashoggi was killed, a man wearing his clothes left the embassy via the back entrance with another man. They took a taxi to the Sultan Ahmed Mosque, where he went into a public washroom, changed his clothes, and left.
CNN aired surveillance footage on Monday showing the man in Khashoggi's dress shirt, suit jacket and pants. It cited a Turkish official as describing the man as a "body double" and a member of the Saudi team sent to Istanbul to target the writer. The man is seen in the footage walking out of the consulate via its back exit with an accomplice, then taking a taxi to Istanbul's famed Sultan Ahmed Mosque, where he went into a public bathroom, changed back out of the clothes and left.
In the video the man accompanying the double can be seen carrying a plastic bag. The bag may have held the change of clothes. The accomplice is wearing a hoodie which he has pulled up over his head and partially obscuring his face.

The "double" is approximately the same height and build as Khashoggi, but has more hair and on close inspection is visibly not him. Also, he is wearing a pair of sneakers instead of the shoes which Khashoggi was wearing when he entered the consulate.

This appears to have been an attempt to create the impression that Khashoggi had left the consulate.

As the above quote notes, the "double" was part of the Saudi team sent to Istanbul. The news story notes that the inclusion of this man in the team implies premeditation on the part of the Saudis.
In the days after Khashoggi vanished, Saudi officials initially said that he had left the consulate, implying premeditation on the part of the Saudi team.
The above seems to show more of the Turkish tactic of letting the Saudis paint themselves into a corner and then reveal another piece of evidence which discredits the latest excuse from the Saudis.

Also in the news, the Turks found a car belonging to the Saudi consulate in a car park in Istanbul where it apparently has been left for the past two weeks. There was no information as to what, if anything, they found in the car,
Turkish investigators on Monday also visited an underground car park in Istanbul where authorities had found a vehicle belonging to the Saudi Consulate. News reports say the car was left there two weeks ago. Investigators looking into the disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi last week searched other consulate vehicles, along with the consulate building and the consul general's residence.
 
France imports only a small fraction of that amount of oil in total,
Correct, that was apparently a typo in the original; they'd put 'bpd', as is standard, but probably should have put '$pd' . It should have read from 200,000 to 360,000. Corrected, thank you.
France Crude Oil Imports
and Iran exports only a fraction of that amount in total to all customers as well.
Not correct.
Infographic: To Where Iran Ships its Crude
Iran oil exports set to drop in August ahead of U.S. sanctions: data | Reuters
Can The U.S. Bring Iranian Oil Exports To Zero? | OilPrice.com
The most recent references that I've seen for France's oil imports says that their main sources are Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, in that order.
Not "recent": 2015 and before due to sanctions. Once lifted the position changed dramatically.EU Crude Oil Imports and supply cost - Energy - European Commission
Crude Oil Imports by Country

I made the mistake of not cross-checking a media report first - a rather stupid one, considering how many times I've pointed out flaws in media reporting here!

... nevertheless, the point I was making which I've made before remains 100% valid: as long as the US sanctions on oil imports remain, it's not possible for countries to sanction imports from KSA as well. One or the other are needed and you cannot sanction imports from both, nor can large importers face KSA halting exports as there is no alternate source.
 
Imagine that British Home Secretary arrives to Moscow after invitation made by Russian government. Being accompanied by official from Russian MFA he is detained by police on the Red square. After body search he is asked - who is he - Aisan, African, Russian or other white?
What would be reaction of British mass media?
Do you think that high ranked Saudi official accompanied by FCO representative could be frisked and asked the same question?
Depends what your standard police procedure is.

Everyone gets asked the question on stop/search or arrest here.

But given none of the four Russian suspects wanted for high profile killings in the UK will ever be extradited, you've nothing to worry about have you?

So get off your high horse, and take your attitude elsewhere.
 
More on the Khashoggi "double" Video shows 'body double' exiting Saudi Consulate wearing Khashoggi's clothes after killing | CBC News
There is a video in the above news story which I cannot embed here. It shows Khashoggi and also the rather poor "double" who emerged from the consulate wearing his clothes.

After Khashoggi was killed, a man wearing his clothes left the embassy via the back entrance with another man. They took a taxi to the Sultan Ahmed Mosque, where he went into a public washroom, changed his clothes, and left.

In the video the man accompanying the double can be seen carrying a plastic bag. The bag may have held the change of clothes. The accomplice is wearing a hoodie which he has pulled up over his head and partially obscuring his face.

The "double" is approximately the same height and build as Khashoggi, but has more hair and on close inspection is visibly not him. Also, he is wearing a pair of sneakers instead of the shoes which Khashoggi was wearing when he entered the consulate.

This appears to have been an attempt to create the impression that Khashoggi had left the consulate.

As the above quote notes, the "double" was part of the Saudi team sent to Istanbul. The news story notes that the inclusion of this man in the team implies premeditation on the part of the Saudis.


The above seems to show more of the Turkish tactic of letting the Saudis paint themselves into a corner and then reveal another piece of evidence which discredits the latest excuse from the Saudis.

Also in the news, the Turks found a car belonging to the Saudi consulate in a car park in Istanbul where it apparently has been left for the past two weeks. There was no information as to what, if anything, they found in the car,
The news on the "body double" is widely reported, but I haven't seen any details on where the CCTV coverage comes from. Initial Turkish reports, reportedly including official statements, were that there was no coverage at the rear of the building apart from limited coverage from a school and, possibly, commercial premises opposite.
The above seems to show more of the Turkish tactic of letting the Saudis paint themselves into a corner and then reveal another piece of evidence which discredits the latest excuse from the Saudis.
That's how it's reported in some of the media but it makes no sense at all, although it would have done had it been released much earlier when that's what the KSA was claiming, so discreding that claim.

The "latest excuse from the Saudis" is what it's always been - that they were giving information based on what they were told by the Consul (which changed once he was arrested) then by those others arrested.

They've admitted he was killed in the Consulate by "rogue elements". The new CCTV coverage now simply confirms that and their 'guilt', but does nothing to "show more of the Turkish tactic of letting the Saudis paint themselves into a corner and then reveal another piece of evidence which discredits the latest excuse from the Saudis".

I'd suggest all it shows is incompetence all round:
  • On the part of the "rogue elements" for not using a better "body double" ....
  • .... and on the part of the Turks for not releasing the CCTV footage earlier when it contradicted what the KSA official line was, rather than waiting until it was no longer compromising.
Everything the Turks have done throughout appears to have always been 'too late '.

I'd suggest that of far more importance as far as KSA complicity goes, showing a direct link to MbS for the first time, are the alleged phone calls made to MbS's office by members of the hit-team, also detailed in that and similar reports:

A separate report by newspaper Yeni Safak said Maher Abdulaziz Mutreb, a member of Prince Mohammed's entourage on trips to the United States, France and Spain this year, made the calls from the consulate. The newspaper said the four calls went to Bader al-Asaker, head of Prince Mohammed's office. It said another call went to the United States.

Bader al-Asaker is the head of MbS's private office and there don't appear to be any reports of his arrest (yet).
 
Correct, that was apparently a typo in the original; they'd put 'bpd', as is standard, but probably should have put '$pd' . It should have read from 200,000 to 360,000. Corrected, thank you.
France Crude Oil Imports

Not correct.
Infographic: To Where Iran Ships its Crude
Iran oil exports set to drop in August ahead of U.S. sanctions: data | Reuters
Can The U.S. Bring Iranian Oil Exports To Zero? | OilPrice.com
Not "recent": 2015 and before due to sanctions. Once lifted the position changed dramatically.EU Crude Oil Imports and supply cost - Energy - European Commission
Crude Oil Imports by Country

I made the mistake of not cross-checking a media report first - a rather stupid one, considering how many times I've pointed out flaws in media reporting here!

... nevertheless, the point I was making which I've made before remains 100% valid: as long as the US sanctions on oil imports remain, it's not possible for countries to sanction imports from KSA as well. One or the other are needed and you cannot sanction imports from both, nor can large importers face KSA halting exports as there is no alternate source.
Your original claim was:
(...) France, for example, currently imports well over 6.5 million barrels of crude oil per day from Iran, but only 80 thousand from KSA, and they may need to find an alternative supplier to Iran very soon which could be problematic if sanctions are applied to KSA as well as Iran.
(...)
https://www.arrse.co.uk/community/t...saudi-consulate-in-turkey.286905/post-8867963

To clarify things, the links you have provided as evidence say that Iran exports nowhere near 6.5 million barrels of crude oil per day let alone France import anywhere near that much. There is no typo in the YCharts link you provided, you are just reading them wrong. You are mixing up tons and barrels and days, months and years. Iran is not France's biggest oil supplier, and France is not excessively dependent upon them.

To get to the main point, @Crash said nothing in his post about cutting off Saudi Arabia's oil exports. I haven't recommended it either. Crash suggested restricting the travel of senior level Saudi officials.
Ok, what sort of sanctions would be effective? Best would be a travel ban on senior Saudis. Let them enjoy summer without travelling to Cote d’azure or Knightsbridge...
I had previously suggested that narrowly targeted sanctions that affected the top Saudi figures such as limits on foreign travel, imports of luxury items, etc.
Targeted sanctions much as are used against Russia are quite feasible. Limited sanctions could be implemented that affect the top Saudi regime figures such as having their foreign bank accounts frozen, or limits on foreign travel, imports of luxury items, foreign investment, sporting and cultural contacts, etc. All of these would hurt the prestige of the regime in ways which would be difficult to hide despite news censorship.
I suggested though that a coordinated expulsion of Saudi diplomats would be a proportional response, given that this was the response used against Russia in the case of the Salisbury incident and that this sort of thing is something the Saudis themselves recently thought was a "sanction" when they used it against a western country.

Now the Saudis on the other hand have made heavy hints about shutting off their own oil exports as a "sanction" against the west if anyone were to try to hold them to account for what they have done. I have previously stated that I thought this was an empty threat and provided reasons why I thought this was so.

So the only people talking about cutting off the flow of oil are the Saudis themselves. Whether bin Salman has the sort of iron grip over Saudi Arabia which he would need to impose those austerities on the country just to save his own skin is a good question. I very much doubt it though.
 
Whether bin Salman has the sort of iron grip over Saudi Arabia which he would need to impose those austerities on the country just to save his own skin is a good question. I very much doubt it though.
My long-held impression is that the House of Saud has for a long time only remained in power by bribing the population with a relatively luxurious tax-free existence. Once that's gone, there's trouble - and sanctioning the rest of the world in terms of withholding oil isn't going to help, there. Is that too far wrong?
 
I was pretty impressed with the UK statement. It set out clear expectations of the KSA but made it clear that we remain a partner, albeit a concerned one. Interestingly, the statement avoids a statement of support for, or confidence in, specific persons. It is an admirably proportionate response.

Re. the question of which nations are allies of the KSA, it could be argued that, despite the UK's role in the creation of the kingdom, we are allies mainly because of mutual interest as opposed to there being strong cultural ties, such as there are with the US, Canada, etc. I suppose what I am asking is, does the fact that the Saudis have had us over a barrel (of oil...) and have at times used their control of that resource in ways which have had a negative impact on the UK, mean that while we are partners we are not friends? I would bet that plenty of those in govt here and in the US, EU, Canada, etc are quite enjoying Saudi being in a mess of its own making, even if, for other reasons, it is in our interests for the crisis to be put to bed.
 
There’s a word that encompasses what most of us feel towards KSA.


...schadenfreude

ETA it was 17 years ago today I was first posted to KSA. Spooky.
 
I was pretty impressed with the UK statement. It set out clear expectations of the KSA but made it clear that we remain a partner, albeit a concerned one. Interestingly, the statement avoids a statement of support for, or confidence in, specific persons. It is an admirably proportionate response.

Re. the question of which nations are allies of the KSA, it could be argued that, despite the UK's role in the creation of the kingdom, we are allies mainly because of mutual interest as opposed to there being strong cultural ties, such as there are with the US, Canada, etc. I suppose what I am asking is, does the fact that the Saudis have had us over a barrel (of oil...) and have at times used their control of that resource in ways which have had a negative impact on the UK, mean that while we are partners we are not friends? I would bet that plenty of those in govt here and in the US, EU, Canada, etc are quite enjoying Saudi being in a mess of its own making, even if, for other reasons, it is in our interests for the crisis to be put to bed.
Having drafted ministerial statements in the past, each word would have been very carefully crafted and passed through many hands - including the Political Director (previous HMA in Ankara), PUS and the PS/SofS. So often it’s about what’s not said...
 
There’s a word that encompasses what most of us feel towards KSA.


...schadenfreude

ETA it was 17 years ago today I was first posted to KSA. Spooky.
Did you have to live in them special compounds and stuff for westerners? I am assuming booze was also out of question apart from smuggled in/ know that guy behind the alley/ home brewed hooch, R&Rs in other ME cities where you can buy it, like Dubai etc.?
 
Jamal did not leave in a hurry.
Instead he left like a slurry
It could have been worse
And got hitched to this:

............And ended up homeless in Bury.



( Taxi waiting)........
 
Did you have to live in them special compounds and stuff for westerners? I am assuming booze was also out of question apart from smuggled in/ know that guy behind the alley/ home brewed hooch, R&Rs in other ME cities where you can buy it, like Dubai etc.?
I was there as a RAF deputy Detachment Commander for 6 months. Alcohol was only available at the Embassy.
 
France imports only a small fraction of that amount of oil in total, let alone from any one source, and Iran exports only a fraction of that amount in total to all customers as well. The most recent references that I've seen for France's oil imports says that their main sources are Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, in that order.
Do the French get any oil from Libya (assuming the political situation is now stable)? It's a lot closer .
 

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