Saudi Journalist Disappears in Saudi Consulate in Turkey

I see. So I was surprised to read your post

Reading this phrase one could think that you are sure that mr.Kashoggi was totured, dismembered and the only remaining question is was it filmed or not.

Recently Putin's agitprop TV presented the story exactly this way - as brutal murder of the journalist and it was presented not as allegation but as a fact.
You tell about reputable news source. Reputable from my point of view means unbiased, correct news-source that doesn't try to present allegations as facts. BBC and some other news-source (including Canadian ones) are close to it but only close to my definition.
I reckon that MSM create parallel reality, at least try to create.
The disappearance of mr.Kashoggi is remarkable by disproportionate volume of allegations (frequently presented as facts) while there too few real facts in the case.
Recently it was reported that someone in Kerch killed and wounded a large number of people. We have only the reports of the same press that you cast doubt on to tell us about this. So is this a fact, or is it just an allegation?
 
Assiri will take the rap, plead and be found guilty with some guff story and then given a pardon in one of the Ramadans. Nothing to see here.
'Yes' to the former, with a pay-off and promise of early release behind the scenes, but 'no' to the latter. I'd suggest it's far more likely he'll be either quietly executed on an appeal, after having told the "guff story", or he'll sadly commit suicide in jail, also after having told the "guff story".
In the realpolitik world we and the US are going to tut, tut mildly.
I don't think so.

I don't think the US will "tut, tut" at all. It'll simply blame the "rogue elements " and carry on business as before.

I think other countries, on the other hand, possibly the UK but certainly many in the EU, and Canada, will take stronger action, sanction the KSA, and quite possibly ignore the US threats over those flouting the US sanctions on Iran.
 
In the realpolitik world we and the US are going to tut, tut mildly. Within KSA they'll be wondering WTF all the fuss is about and getting ready to tell us to STFU.
In this mornings news on German TV Trump was quoted as saying that there must be a firm response, but no further details. It would appear that the White House is going to wait a couple of days to see what the official Saudi version is.
 
Seems all's not rosy and united in the Kingdom.

'Dissident Saudi Prince Khalid bin Farhan Al-Saud has demanded King Salman bin Abdulaziz to abdicate the throne in favour of his brother Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz after the disappearance of journalist Jamal Khashoggi; an incident that has provoked international outrage.'

Saudi prince: ‘The King ordered Khashoggi’s death and Mohammed bin Salman carried it out’

Salman Jnr seems to be a new departure fur the previously very cautious and conservative Kingdom.

He seems to be cut from the stock Arab thug ruler a la Sadaam/Assad, rather than the wily old tribal Shiek line.

The current King is the last direct heir of Ibn Saud, Salman Jr is just one of the myriad of spoiled brat entitled Princelings without direct legitimacy, and nothing like as shrewd and considered as his grandfathers.
 
Seems all's not rosy and united in the Kingdom.

'Dissident Saudi Prince Khalid bin Farhan Al-Saud has demanded King Salman bin Abdulaziz to abdicate the throne in favour of his brother Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz after the disappearance of journalist Jamal Khashoggi; an incident that has provoked international outrage.'

Saudi prince: ‘The King ordered Khashoggi’s death and Mohammed bin Salman carried it out’
"Prince Ben Farhan predicted that public opinion would be misled towards a scapegoat regarding Khashoggi’s case, explaining that “it will be promoted that someone within the Saudi intelligence took the decision to assassinate the Saudi journalist, and they will potentially blame the Saudi consul and the 15 Saudis who arrived in Istanbul and carried out the assassination. In this way, they will divert the direct accusations away from Mohammed bin Salman and the king.”
 
How? How, exactly, would a tape "reveal how the bugging was done and who was involved in doing it"?

The 'Apple' angle's already been discussed at length here and in the media and the potential for accessing mobiles, etc, is widely known.

The tapes are hardly likely to proclaim 'sent from the Consul's Oppo X on tippytalk', and any such giveaways could easily be edited out.
"The Saudis" don't need, nor is there the slightest possibility now that they can have, an "air tight alibi". (...)
There are lots of things they could look into:
  • Examine the bit rate and compression and compare to known devices.
  • Characterize the frequency response of the microphone, front end filters, and A/D circuits and compare to known devices.
  • Look for noise indicating it came from a worn or carried microphone or device.
  • Measure the relative sound levels of various voices and compare to where they stood.
  • Examine the recording to see if the recording device was static or moving. If it was moving, can it be correlated to any specific person.
  • Etc.

Those are just some examples I can think of off the top of my head, and I'm not in the business of analyzing this sort of thing. Even if the Saudis find one set of bugs, they don't know what other sets of bugs may have been present that they don't know about. Why should the Turks tell them?
 
"Prince Ben Farhan predicted that public opinion would be misled towards a scapegoat regarding Khashoggi’s case, explaining that “it will be promoted that someone within the Saudi intelligence took the decision to assassinate the Saudi journalist, and they will potentially blame the Saudi consul and the 15 Saudis who arrived in Istanbul and carried out the assassination. In this way, they will divert the direct accusations away from Mohammed bin Salman and the king.”

I suspect Salman Jr will indeed do a show trial and execute all the evidence, but that just cements his Sadaam like dictatorial credentials.
 
Seems all's not rosy and united in the Kingdom.

'Dissident Saudi Prince Khalid bin Farhan Al-Saud has demanded King Salman bin Abdulaziz to abdicate the throne in favour of his brother Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz after the disappearance of journalist Jamal Khashoggi; an incident that has provoked international outrage.'

Saudi prince: ‘The King ordered Khashoggi’s death and Mohammed bin Salman carried it out’
If I was Prince Khalid, I’d be very careful I wasn’t accidented with a car/wood chipper/hair curlers. Because accidents do happen...to critics of MBS. And in case he’s reading this, I think his is a righteous leader, ordained by Allah to rule the Kingdom of the Two Mosques etc...[Ed: isn’t this a bit sycophantic?]
 
There are lots of things they could look into:
  • Examine the bit rate and compression and compare to known devices.
  • Characterize the frequency response of the microphone, front end filters, and A/D circuits and compare to known devices.
  • Look for noise indicating it came from a worn or carried microphone or device.
  • Measure the relative sound levels of various voices and compare to where they stood.
  • Examine the recording to see if the recording device was static or moving. If it was moving, can it be correlated to any specific person.
  • Etc.

Those are just some examples I can think of off the top of my head, and I'm not in the business of analyzing this sort of thing. Even if the Saudis find one set of bugs, they don't know what other sets of bugs may have been present that they don't know about. Why should the Turks tell them?
What utter nonsense!

It took me all of ten seconds to learn that the "bit rate and compression" will depend on the format of the recording they're given, not the original!

Ditto for the rest!

It applies to an original recording, obviously, but not on an edited recording where they've been covered up simply by varying the volume and pitch and recording format, possibly adding some 'noise' - it shouldn't need someone "in the business of analyzing this sort of thing" to tell you that, just a few seconds with a search engine.

Sorry, but I was hoping for a little less "bullsh1t baffles brains" than that.
 
'Yes' to the former, with a pay-off and promise of early release behind the scenes, but 'no' to the latter. I'd suggest it's far more likely he'll be either quietly executed on an appeal, after having told the "guff story", or he'll sadly commit suicide in jail, also after having told the "guff story".
I don't think so.

I don't think the US will "tut, tut" at all. It'll simply blame the "rogue elements " and carry on business as before.

I think other countries, on the other hand, possibly the UK but certainly many in the EU, and Canada, will take stronger action, sanction the KSA, and quite possibly ignore the US threats over those flouting the US sanctions on Iran.
They need to keep their loyal people alive and onside, the underlings can get chopped but you can't mess about with tribal politics.
 
Salman Jnr seems to be a new departure fur the previously very cautious and conservative Kingdom.

He seems to be cut from the stock Arab thug ruler a la Sadaam/Assad, rather than the wily old tribal Shiek line.

The current King is the last direct heir of Ibn Saud, Salman Jr is just one of the myriad of spoiled brat entitled Princelings without direct legitimacy, and nothing like as shrewd and considered as his grandfathers.
I think it may be worth your while looking at how Ibn Saud came to power and how others remain in power - they're not all enlightened Hashemites!

... and how do you work out that he has no "direct legitimacy"? There's no primo genitur rule or other set inheritance line downwards or sideways.
 
I think it may be worth your while looking at how Ibn Saud came to power and how others remain in power - they're not all enlightened Hashemites!

... and how do you work out that he has no "direct legitimacy"? There's no primo genitur rule or other set inheritance line downwards or sideways.

Ibn Saud once in power had the good sense to set ups a stable system based on equal power to the two sides of the family to rule the Kingdom that kept Saud remarkably stable in a very turbulent region.
Salman Jrs crude power grabs have removed the inter family checks and balances that stopped excesses. He's a crude thug, not a political animal like his grandfathers.
 
OK, with no body (as yet) and no witnesses (available) what would you accept as 'fact' rather than 'allegation'?
Sic Rodos sic salta
If you claim that there are evidences then present them
If you claim that there is audio record of torture and murder then present it.
This waterfall of (as it appears baseless) allegations is itself very suspicious.
 
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Well, let's wait and see. I'm happy to bow to your infinitely greater experience, but with the quiet and largely uncommented on and unprotested departure of the Consul from the scene I'd still happily put a large amount of money on my prediction:

  1. The entire episode will be blamed on "rogue elements" who were either exceeding their authority or trying create an incident and the removal of MbS.
  2. MbS will retain the full support and confidence of the Trump administration.
  3. MbS will have all the excuse he needs to have a purge of the opposition, in which case there'll doubtless be some collateral damage to unwitting participants.
  4. Everyone except the Yemenis, Qatar, and anyone wanting progress in peace and human rights in the Middle East will be happy.
I'd add that I think it's perfectly possible MbS will be ousted, just as he came to power, but I just don't see that happening as a result of the population becoming "truculent".

I'd suggest the outcome will have to be clear quite soon, so we won't have too long to wait.


(On a very separate note, as it roused my curiousity, I thought the Bin Laden's were ethnic Yemeni with the only Syrian connection being his mother and he was the only child from that marriage / relationship?)
John why quote me then add comments that have nothing to do with what I posted??

This will be seen in the Kingdom in a poor light. It will probably not be voiced, it will however be deeply felt by a significant section of the population both Sunni and minority Shia. This cut across religious differences and will be a commen concern.

They were. My wife’s sister, Syrian, married one of the older Bin Laden brothers, which made him a brother-in-law. I was invited to work for the family but chose not to.
 
If I was Prince Khalid, I’d be very careful I wasn’t accidented with a car/wood chipper/hair curlers. Because accidents do happen...to critics of MBS. And in case he’s reading this, I think his is a righteous leader, ordained by Allah to rule the Kingdom of the Two Mosques etc...[Ed: isn’t this a bit sycophantic?]
Helicopter flights...over Houthi territory...
 
What utter nonsense!

It took me all of ten seconds to learn that the "bit rate and compression" will depend on the format of the recording they're given, not the original!
Nonsense?

There is software readily available (Windows or OSX...Media Inspector, Mediainfo, Gspot etc.) with the analytical capability to identify original bitrate versus a file where the bitrate has been altered. It's standard fare in the recording world.
 
Recently it was reported that someone in Kerch killed and wounded a large number of people. We have only the reports of the same press that you cast doubt on to tell us about this. So is this a fact, or is it just an allegation?
There are dead bodies, there are wounded, there are their parents, relatives and friends. Still the wounded are in the hospital. It is news number #1 in Russia. There is a lot of witnesses. There is a lot of photos, videos. There is a list of killed.
By contrast there is nothing factual in reports made by even super-reputable news-sources - only allegations.
There are facts and there is fact-finding process. What do we know about it?
When there was
- search in the consulate? (recently)
- when the Turkish did ask for the search? (indeed when?)
- when the Saudis agreed for the search?
Turkish authorities can search consulate for missing journalist, Saudi crown prince says
October 05, 2018
Turkish authorities can search Saudi Arabia's consulate in Istanbul for journalist Jamal Khashoggi, who has been reported missing after visiting the diplomatic mission three days ago, Saudi Crown Prince Prince Mohammed bin Salman has said.
Now, please, quote even one 'reputable' news-source that mentioned this very important statement.
There is another logical question in this context. Why Turkish authorities didn't search the consulate immediately?
 

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