Saudi Journalist Disappears in Saudi Consulate in Turkey

But why are you sure that mr.Khashoggi was tortured or/and dismembered? Or you not absolutely sure?
How can I be sure that you actually asked a question? Perhaps you asked a question, or perhaps you didn't. At this point we have only allegations that a question was asked and I don't dismiss any theories at this point.

Perhaps Mr. Kashoggi is alive and well and chained to a water pipe in the basement of your dacha outside Moscow. This is only a theory, but I do not dismiss any theories at this point. We have no proof that he is not chained in your basement.

With respect to the fate of Mr. Kashoggi, numerous reputable major news are taking this quite seriously. Numerous heads of government and other significant political figures in reputable major countries are taking the overall situation seriously. Many are in a position to know a great deal more than has been revealed publicly.

The only people who seem to be denying it are the Saudi government, who do not have a record for truth or trustworthiness but do have a record for torture, murder, atrocities, and kidnapping (see previous posts on this latter).

All the evidence that we have seen presented points to Mr. Kashoggi having disappeared while in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. Numerous reputable sources seem to think he was killed by the Saudis. If you take my various posts on this subject collectively, you will see that I do not have a firm opinion on all of the details.

However, the purpose of this thread is to debate not only the exact sequence of events, but also the ultimate political and diplomatic consequences of what has taken place, and those do not depend upon knowing all of the details. Kashoggi's death at the hands of the Saudis in and of itself will have consequences of some sort.
 
How can I be sure that you actually asked a question? Perhaps you asked a question, or perhaps you didn't. At this point we have only allegations that a question was asked and I don't dismiss any theories at this point.

Perhaps Mr. Kashoggi is alive and well and chained to a water pipe in the basement of your dacha outside Moscow. This is only a theory, but I do not dismiss any theories at this point. We have no proof that he is not chained in your basement.

With respect to the fate of Mr. Kashoggi, numerous reputable major news are taking this quite seriously. Numerous heads of government and other significant political figures in reputable major countries are taking the overall situation seriously. Many are in a position to know a great deal more than has been revealed publicly.

The only people who seem to be denying it are the Saudi government, who do not have a record for truth or trustworthiness but do have a record for torture, murder, atrocities, and kidnapping (see previous posts on this latter).

All the evidence that we have seen presented points to Mr. Kashoggi having disappeared while in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. Numerous reputable sources seem to think he was killed by the Saudis. If you take my various posts on this subject collectively, you will see that I do not have a firm opinion on all of the details.

However, the purpose of this thread is to debate not only the exact sequence of events, but also the ultimate political and diplomatic consequences of what has taken place, and those do not depend upon knowing all of the details. Kashoggi's death at the hands of the Saudis in and of itself will have consequences of some sort.
It has to have consequences. As much as the US and UK governments are friends to the KSA, they cannot be seen to disregard the evidence when it is formally presented (or when full versions are leaked and verified). The flip side of the UK talking a lot about human rights is being placed on the spot when an ally/major trading partner ignores those rights (even if, in a complex way, it can be argued that Mbs is stamping out opposition to him and his reforms).
 
I’m not sure I’d read too much into the Turkish decision not to (publicly) release the tapes to the US. Turkish is notoriously insular on intelligence sharing matters; moreover in other Posts we’ve seen how Turkey is controlling events and deepening the crisis for KSA by their very measured release of information.
The Turks are probably reluctant to give out the tapes to anyone, as they may thus reveal how the bugging was done and who was involved in doing it, and they want to protect their sources.

They also may not want to hand everything over to the US in confidence, as they may suspect, quite reasonably in my opinion, that Trump would simply hand over everything to the Saudis. The Saudis could then use it to try to construct an air tight alibi. This may include killing all of the known witnesses and any Turkish intelligence sources. If the Saudis don't know who the Turks have actual evidence against (or intelligence about, which is not the same thing), they then face the choice of either killing a suspiciously large number of potential witnesses, or risk leaving some alive who then might take flight abroad and spill the beans to save their skins.

The reasons for the Turks holding their cards close to their vests are many, and I would not expect them to do otherwise.
 
It has to have consequences. As much as the US and UK governments are friends to the KSA, they cannot be seen to disregard the evidence when it is formally presented (or when full versions are leaked and verified). The flip side of the UK talking a lot about human rights is being placed on the spot when an ally/major trading partner ignores those rights (even if, in a complex way, it can be argued that Mbs is stamping out opposition to him and his reforms).
It is already having consequences in terms of major business figures and news organizations pulling out of Saudi Arabia's upcoming business conference. This conference was to be a key part of the start of Saudi Arabia's new economic diversification program. That program however is personally associated with Mohamed bin Salman, and his "brand" is now seen as something which few people concerned about their reputation will want to be associated with.

MBS was trying to present himself as a progressive reformer, but that has now been overshadowed by recent events. These events involve not only just this one, but this one is the capstone.

I don't think that the UK can reasonably expect to accomplish anything on their own in terms of "punishing" Saudi Arabia. The US are the primary patrons of the Saudis, and nothing can be accomplished without their agreement and leadership on this issue.

Trump on the other hand is desperately trying to sweep the whole issue under the carpet for a number of reasons. One is that he has associated his name with an upcoming big arms sale. Another is that he doesn't want to do anything which might result in the price of oil going up before the upcoming elections. Yet another is that Saudi Arabia is a key in Trump's anti-Iran strategy, which would be derailed if the Saudis joined the list of "bad guys".

The ideal solution for all concerned would be for bin Salman to take the blame and be forced into obscurity and retirement by his peers, and replaced by a more cautious set of hands. It is possible that this is what the Turks would really like to see happen, and why they are keeping the pressure on the Saudis. The successor could then make apologies for the "unauthorized actions of a few subordinates", patch up relations with Qatar, find a way out of the ongoing Yemen fiasco, restore diplomatic relations with those western countries they are boycotting, and generally wind the clock back on things to the point before where things went wrong.

For the Saudis to continue on the present path though requires that they continue receiving carte blanche from the Americans, and I don't see that as being guaranteed, especially after Trump has either left power or been politically stymied in Washington.
 
The whole thing has the inevitability of a Greek tragedy. Some saudi intelligence bods will be hung out to dry for going too far,using their initiative,whatever. Then slotted. All is well,and we can all be bessers again. I hope I live to see that place implode,and the house of saud. hung by its heels from lampposts along Tahlia street.
Bump...:rolleyes:
 
Apparently the Turkish police are now searching a nearby forest and farmland for Mr Khashoggi’s body puzzle. If the boys from Saudi were that amateur to dump him on their way out of the country, this whole endeavour they embarked on will be on par with an old B movie....
 
One of the Saudi suspects in the case is or was apparently a member of Prince Mohammed bin Salman's entourage. This may represent a direct link between bin Salman and the events in Istanbul. He is shown below walking towards the Saudi consulate.
Trump says it 'certainly looks' like Saudi journalist is dead | CBC News


Maher Abdulaziz Mutreb was photographed in bin Salman's entourage on visits to the US, France, and Spain earlier this year.
The man, identified by Turkish officials as Maher Abdulaziz Mutreb, was photographed in the background of Prince Mohammed's trips to the U.S., France and Spain this year.
He entered the consulate at 9:55 am on the morning of the day that Khashoggi disappeared.
The report from Sabah, a pro-government Turkish newspaper, showed Mutreb walking past police barricades at the consulate at 9:55 a.m. with several men trailing behind him. Khashoggi arrived at the consulate several hours later at 1:14 p.m., then disappeared while his fiancée waited outside for him.
Mutreb was next seen at the consul's home at 4:53 pm. At 5:15 pm he checked out of his hotel, and at 5:58 pm he cleared airport security to fly back to Saudi Arabia.
Previously leaked surveillance footage showed consular vehicles moving from the consulate to the consul general's official residence, some two kilometres away, a little under two hours after Khashoggi walked inside. The Sabah newspaper showed an image of Mutreb at 4:53 p.m. at the consul's home, then at 5:15 p.m. checking out of a hotel. He later cleared airport security at 5:58 p.m.
Mutreb appears to have served as a diplomat at the Saudi embassy in London in 2007. The news story said that the Turkis confirmed his identity, but it is not 100% if they were confirming that he was indeed at the London embassy.
Mutreb's name matches that of a first secretary who once served as a diplomat at the Saudi Embassy in London, according to a 2007 list compiled by the British Foreign Office.

(...) Mutreb's identity was confirmed by Turkish officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the investigation was ongoing. Mutreb also was identified in state and pro-government media reports.
It is not completely clear what Mutreb's relationship with bin Salman is, but he wore the same sort of ID pin as one of his close bodyguards.
The relationship between Mutreb and Prince Mohammed is unclear.

Images shot by the Houston Chronicle and later distributed by AP show Mutreb in Prince Mohammed's entourage when he visited a Houston subdivision in April to see rebuilding efforts after Hurricane Harvey. The same man wore lapel pins, including one of the U.S. and Saudi flags intertwined, that other bodyguards accompanying Prince Mohammed wore on the trip.
I might speculate that he may be a Saudi security or intelligence official. Given that he may have previously served as a diplomat in London (or at least was posing as one), he may be several steps up from being just an ordinary bodyguard. If this is true, then he may have been a key person in carrying out this operation and reporting on it at the highest levels back in Riyadh.
 
Also from the same story, the list of people pulling out of the Saudi business conference is growing. Trump says it 'certainly looks' like Saudi journalist is dead | CBC News

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has said he will not be attending the conference. Senior government officials (not named in the story) from the UK, France, and the Netherlands have said the same.
Trump's comments came after U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he will not attend an investment conference in Saudi Arabia, as did senior government officials from France, Britain and the Netherlands.
They join a long list of business and news media leaders who have also pulled out of the conference.

The conference was supposed to help kick off Saudi Arabia's economic diversification program.
 
The Turks are probably reluctant to give out the tapes to anyone, as they may thus reveal how the bugging was done and who was involved in doing it, and they want to protect their sources.
How? How, exactly, would a tape "reveal how the bugging was done and who was involved in doing it"?

The 'Apple' angle's already been discussed at length here and in the media and the potential for accessing mobiles, etc, is widely known.

The tapes are hardly likely to proclaim 'sent from the Consul's Oppo X on tippytalk', and any such giveaways could easily be edited out.
They also may not want to hand everything over to the US in confidence, as they may suspect, quite reasonably in my opinion, that Trump would simply hand over everything to the Saudis. The Saudis could then use it to try to construct an air tight alibi. This may include killing all of the known witnesses and any Turkish intelligence sources. If the Saudis don't know who the Turks have actual evidence against (or intelligence about, which is not the same thing), they then face the choice of either killing a suspiciously large number of potential witnesses, or risk leaving some alive who then might take flight abroad and spill the beans to save their skins.
"The Saudis" don't need, nor is there the slightest possibility now that they can have, an "air tight alibi".

All they need for anyone who wants to continue to support them and have an excuse for doing so, like Trump, is some vaguely 'plausible deniability' of responsibility.

All anyone needs who doesn't want to continue supporting them is what's already in the public domain.
The reasons for the Turks holding their cards close to their vests are many, and I would not expect them to do otherwise.
Even being very generous, the Turks clearly have no "cards" proving or even indicating who was responsible rather than just who took part - they've given all those to the KSA and MbS already.

Whether that was through incompetence, which I think is highly unlikely, or pragmatic because they could then sit on the fence as they always have and avoid anyone pointing the finger and saying 'you dropped us in the doo-doo' or alternatively 'you kept them out of the doo-doo' is arguable.
 
How? How, exactly, would a tape "reveal how the bugging was done and who was involved in doing it"?
With respect the Middle East North Africa (and I suggest Turkey too) area is a place where I heard this said to understand the government culture....

If the government orders a chair, the purchase order is secret.

It the government orders a chair and says who's going to sit in it, it's top secret.
It's not whether the product might reasonably compromise sources and methods.

It's the perception of what might be compromised by the release of such product.
 
One of the Saudi suspects in the case is or was apparently a member of Prince Mohammed bin Salman's entourage. This may represent a direct link between bin Salman and the events in Istanbul. He is shown below walking towards the Saudi consulate.
Trump says it 'certainly looks' like Saudi journalist is dead | CBC News


Maher Abdulaziz Mutreb was photographed in bin Salman's entourage on visits to the US, France, and Spain earlier this year.


He entered the consulate at 9:55 am on the morning of the day that Khashoggi disappeared.


Mutreb was next seen at the consul's home at 4:53 pm. At 5:15 pm he checked out of his hotel, and at 5:58 pm he cleared airport security to fly back to Saudi Arabia.


Mutreb appears to have served as a diplomat at the Saudi embassy in London in 2007. The news story said that the Turkis confirmed his identity, but it is not 100% if they were confirming that he was indeed at the London embassy.


It is not completely clear what Mutreb's relationship with bin Salman is, but he wore the same sort of ID pin as one of his close bodyguards.


I might speculate that he may be a Saudi security or intelligence official. Given that he may have previously served as a diplomat in London (or at least was posing as one), he may be several steps up from being just an ordinary bodyguard. If this is true, then he may have been a key person in carrying out this operation and reporting on it at the highest levels back in Riyadh.
No offence, but this is very old news. At least four have been positively identified as having been part of MbS's "entourage" on his visits abroad and having served as diplomats overseas, and others positively identified as having been his personal bodyguards.

While that proves their connection with MbS, it does nothing to prove who sent them or ordered the operation, which could (depending on who you want to believe) have been the previously mentioned Gen Ahmed al-Assiri or any similarly highly placed scapegoat just as easily as it could have been MbS.

The only proof is held by MbS, so it's all down to who you believe ... or pretend to believe.
 
The only proof is held by MbS, so it's all down to who you believe ... or pretend to believe.
Well, Trump appears to have made that clear already.

But, was it not said once of a French monarch that the two most powerful people at the time in France were the King and the last person he spoke with?

Similar with Trump it seems.
 
With respect the Middle East North Africa (and I suggest Turkey too) area is a place where I heard this said to understand the government culture....



It's not whether the product might reasonably compromise sources and methods.

It's the perception of what might be compromised by the release of such product.
Agreed entirely ... ... "chair? What chair?" would often be appropriate ^_^.

In this case, though, I don't think that's either what's being said here or said / leaked by the Turks.

The key date here, when decisions will have to be made, is November 5. That's when the US sanctions on Iranian oil, opposed by many in the West, come in to force. Without oil from KSA to take its place, preferably at the same price, and the KSA military to ensure its safe passage and no intervention from Iran, the West will face a major oil crisis.

Trump has a simple but unavoidable choice: either continue to support the KSA, whatever anyone might say, or cancel the sanctions on Iran.
 
Agreed entirely ... ... "chair? What chair?" would often be appropriate ^_^.

In this case, though, I don't think that's either what's being said here or said / leaked by the Turks.

The key date here, when decisions will have to be made, is November 5. That's when the US sanctions on Iranian oil, opposed by many in the West, come in to force. Without oil from KSA to take its place, preferably at the same price, and the KSA military to ensure its safe passage and no intervention from Iran, the West will face a major oil crisis.

Trump has a simple but unavoidable choice: either continue to support the KSA, whatever anyone might say, or cancel the sanctions on Iran.
And Trump has mid-term elections to worry about on 6 NOV...
 
How can I be sure that you actually asked a question? Perhaps you asked a question, or perhaps you didn't. At this point we have only allegations that a question was asked and I don't dismiss any theories at this point.

Perhaps Mr. Kashoggi is alive and well and chained to a water pipe in the basement of your dacha outside Moscow. This is only a theory, but I do not dismiss any theories at this point. We have no proof that he is not chained in your basement.

With respect to the fate of Mr. Kashoggi, numerous reputable major news are taking this quite seriously. Numerous heads of government and other significant political figures in reputable major countries are taking the overall situation seriously. Many are in a position to know a great deal more than has been revealed publicly.

The only people who seem to be denying it are the Saudi government, who do not have a record for truth or trustworthiness but do have a record for torture, murder, atrocities, and kidnapping (see previous posts on this latter).

All the evidence that we have seen presented points to Mr. Kashoggi having disappeared while in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. Numerous reputable sources seem to think he was killed by the Saudis. If you take my various posts on this subject collectively, you will see that I do not have a firm opinion on all of the details.

However, the purpose of this thread is to debate not only the exact sequence of events, but also the ultimate political and diplomatic consequences of what has taken place, and those do not depend upon knowing all of the details. Kashoggi's death at the hands of the Saudis in and of itself will have consequences of some sort.
I see. So I was surprised to read your post
I wonder if the Saudis filmed or recorded the whole torture, interrogation, and dismemberment themselves for later analysis and perhaps also for the entertainment of their leadership.
Reading this phrase one could think that you are sure that mr.Kashoggi was tortured, dismembered and the only remaining question is was it filmed or not.
Various news sources are saying that they tore off Kashoggi's fingers during the torture phase. That would kind of undermine the story of it being a kidnap gone wrong. An independent autopsy of Kashoggi's remains might prove to be very instructive in many ways.
Recently Putin's agitprop TV presented the story exactly this way - as brutal murder of the journalist and it was presented not as allegation but as a fact.
You tell about reputable news sources. Reputable from my point of view means unbiased, correct news-source that doesn't try to present allegations as facts. BBC and some other news-source (including Canadian ones) are close to it but only close to my definition.
I reckon that MSM create parallel reality, at least try to create.
The disappearance of mr.Kashoggi is remarkable by disproportionate volume of allegations (frequently presented as facts) while there too few real facts in the case.
 
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If that’s the case, and it has now become public knowledge, I wonder what the good generals’ reaction might be; leg it or stay and plead innocence?

Of course, if one wanted to come over all Machiavellian, it could I guess be argued that this information is being released (from three separate sources simultaneously) in order to provoke a reaction from General Ahmed al-Assiri that might make it easier to point the finger at him.
Assiri will take the rap, plead and be found guilty with some guff story and then given a pardon in one of the Ramadans. Nothing to see here.
 
I see. So I was surprised to read your post

Reading this phrase one could think that you are sure that mr.Kashoggi was totured, dismembered and the only remaining question is was it filmed or not.

Recently Putin's agitprop TV presented the story exactly this way - as brutal murder of the journalist and it was presented not as allegation but as a fact.
You tell about reputable news source. Reputable from my point of view means unbiased, correct news-source that doesn't try to present allegations as facts. BBC and some other news-source (including Canadian ones) are close to it but only close to my definition.
I reckon that MSM create parallel reality, at least try to create.
The disappearance of mr.Kashoggi is remarkable by disproportionate volume of allegations (frequently presented as facts) while there too few real facts in the case.
OK, with no body (as yet) and no witnesses (available) what would you accept as 'fact' rather than 'allegation'?
 
Trump has a simple but unavoidable choice: either continue to support the KSA, whatever anyone might say, or cancel the sanctions on Iran.
In the realpolitik world we and the US are going to tut, tut mildly. Within KSA they'll be wondering WTF all the fuss is about and getting ready to tell us to STFU.
 

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