Saudi Journalist Disappears in Saudi Consulate in Turkey

That news story is definitely worth reading as in my opinion it provides a very good analysis of the overall political and diplomatic situation.

The sequence of events in this bit is particularly worth taking note of. The bit about "he was cut to pieces soon after" his death will fatally undermine the excuse that it was all an accident if "soon after" means they came prepared for it.


This bit notes that Turkey may come out of this with their regional influence greatly enhanced.


And this bit about bin Salman makes two important points. One is that bin Salman's international standing will be irrecoverably damaged. Another is that Saudi Arabia's propaganda machine has been putting the blame for the death on a conspiracy by Qatar and Turkey. Turkey may feel the need to hammer home the facts in order to stop the Saudis from continuing with that line.


Unrelated to the above, I recently saw a US source which said that in the US people are starting to call MBS (Mohamed bin Salman) "Mister Bone Saw". That is the sort of nickname that even the best PR firms might find hard to suppress.
Thanks for your analysis of this excellent article. I haven't got the energy to do this, after spending the morning dismembering the body of the post man clearing leaves in the garden, and double wrapping the bin liners.
 
I wonder if the Saudis filmed or recorded the whole torture, interrogation, and dismemberment themselves for later analysis and perhaps also for the entertainment of their leadership.

Various news sources are saying that they tore off Kashoggi's fingers during the torture phase. That would kind of undermine the story of it being a kidnap gone wrong. An independent autopsy of Kashoggi's remains might prove to be very instructive in many ways.
But why are you sure that mr.Khashoggi was tortured or/and dismembered? Or you not absolutely sure?
 
The only party doing the right thing here seems to be Turkey, and this will be a step in the right direction to restore its international standing (and keep in closer to the Western Club).
..."the right thing" ???

I'd have said (and, come to think of it, have said!) that they've consistently done the wrong thing from the start, and they've made themselves look prats along with everyone else involved (Khashoggi, the hit team, the clean up squad, the Saudis, the Americans ...):
  1. If they were bugging the Consulate, as they've hinted, they should have known on 28 September, a week beforehand, that Khashoggi was due to go back a week later. They should have also known that he was a likely target.
  2. If they were bugging the Consulate, as they've hinted, they should have known or had some idea about the planned abduction and either taken steps to warn him or at least monitored the Consulate more closely, for example at the rear where the only video coverage was from the school opposite.
  3. If they knew the killing had taken / was taking place, as they've hinted, and who'd done it, they should have arrested or at least detained those they thought were responsible instead of letting them leave that night, some on scheduled international flights. None had diplomatic immunity and the Turks knew (or should have known) they'd committed murder in Turkey.
  4. Once they had permission to search the Consulate they should have done so immediately instead of losing the opportunity by leaking the names of the fifteen Saudis.
  5. They should have prevented the cleaners with their buckets, mops and paint, from going in to the Consulate to contaminate a known / believed murder scene.
  6. They should have requested the Consul remain in the country to help the police, and delayed his departure (see above) if necessary / possible until they had an answer.
  7. They should have asked for some answers from Pompeo, as well as some respect rather than just a stop-over at the airport.
When have they done "the right thing"?
 
Turkey searches Saudi consulate again, as French, Dutch ministers cancel Riyadh trip | Reuters
Another search of the Consulate last night. Nothing much new in the article, just the little snippets that keep coming out. Whether to give them credence without any reputable source having been given the (alleged) tapes.... Other than this that is, a quote from what appears to be almost definitely 'beyond the grave':
The Washington Post published a column it received from his assistant after he was reported missing in which Khashoggi condemns the crackdown on journalists by Arab governments and the failure of the international community to respond.

“As a result, Arab governments have been given free rein to continue silencing the media at an increasing rate,” he wrote.
 
Is it very tinfoily of me to ponder the question of who profits the most from Kashoggi's death and is therefore likely to have had some sort of hand in arranging the whole sorry episode?
Anyone who doesn't like the House of Saud in general or MbS in particular.

The former would like a re-run of Persia (possibly with an Iranian-style end-state), while the latter would like MbS's position, power and money.

... oh, and arguably Kashoggi, if alive ...
 
..."the right thing" ???

I'd have said (and, come to think of it, have said!) that they've consistently done the wrong thing from the start, and they've made themselves look prats along with everyone else involved (Khashoggi, the hit team, the clean up squad, the Saudis, the Americans ...):
  1. If they were bugging the Consulate, as they've hinted, they should have known on 28 September, a week beforehand, that Khashoggi was due to go back a week later. They should have also known that he was a likely target.
  2. If they were bugging the Consulate, as they've hinted, they should have known or had some idea about the planned abduction and either taken steps to warn him or at least monitored the Consulate more closely, for example at the rear where the only video coverage was from the school opposite.
  3. If they knew the killing had taken / was taking place, as they've hinted, and who'd done it, they should have arrested or at least detained those they thought were responsible instead of letting them leave that night, some on scheduled international flights. None had diplomatic immunity and the Turks knew (or should have known) they'd committed murder in Turkey.
  4. Once they had permission to search the Consulate they should have done so immediately instead of losing the opportunity by leaking the names of the fifteen Saudis.
  5. They should have prevented the cleaners with their buckets, mops and paint, from going in to the Consulate to contaminate a known / believed murder scene.
  6. They should have requested the Consul remain in the country to help the police, and delayed his departure (see above) if necessary / possible until they had an answer.
  7. They should have asked for some answers from Pompeo, as well as some respect rather than just a stop-over at the airport.
When have they done "the right thing"?
Perhaps the Turks found it convenient to let the Saudis carry out the murder. After all the two countries are rivals in a game of Regional Power Politics and the drama is being drawn out to maximum effect by the Turks. The heir to the Saudi throne could be replaced by his brother, the US and UK are being embarrassed as allies of the Saudis and there's even a chance of a disruption of western economies if the Saudis decide to turn off the oil tap. Turkey has a bit to gain from the murder of one Saudi citizen.
 
Perhaps the Turks found it convenient to let the Saudis carry out the murder.
I don't disagree there - it's their actions afterwards I'm questioning the wisdom of / rationale behind.
The heir to the Saudi throne could be replaced by his brother
Any particular one? I'm not sure who'd benefit from that, apart from the brother in question of course, particularly how the Turks would benefit?
 
I don't disagree there - it's their actions afterwards I'm questioning the wisdom of / rationale behind.
The objective seems to be to keep Saudi Arabia on the back foot and embarrass the US as much as possible.

Any particular one? I'm not sure who'd benefit from that, apart from the brother in question of course, particularly how the Turks would benefit?
Mohammad seems to be a bit of a progressive strong man who might drag Saudi Arabia out of the Middle Ages and into the 20th century. Turkey might prefer a weaker King of SA.

Edited to add that an interviewee on RTE radio yesterday named a possible replacement for the current Crown Prince but I've forgotten who it was. No shortage of Saudi princes anyway.
 
Mohammad seems to be a bit of a progressive strong man who might drag Saudi Arabia out of the Middle Ages and into the 20th century. Turkey might prefer a weaker King of SA.
Ummm ... 'MbS' is 'Mohammad', Mohammad bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, the Crown Prince.

AFAIK he's got half a dozen brothers still alive, but he's the only 'Mohammad'.
 
Is it very tinfoily of me to ponder the question of who profits the most from Kashoggi's death and is therefore likely to have had some sort of hand in arranging the whole sorry episode?
Anyone who doesn't like the House of Saud in general or MbS in particular.

The former would like a re-run of Persia (possibly with an Iranian-style end-state), while the latter would like MbS's position, power and money.

... oh, and arguably Kashoggi, if alive ...
On second thoughts, I should add Iran to that list as they'd be happy to see the US / KSA plan for the Middle East fall apart, as would Yemen and a few others. I think it'd be pushing things a bit far to think they're involved, though.
 
..."the right thing" ???

I'd have said (and, come to think of it, have said!) that they've consistently done the wrong thing from the start, and they've made themselves look prats along with everyone else involved (Khashoggi, the hit team, the clean up squad, the Saudis, the Americans ...):
  1. If they were bugging the Consulate, as they've hinted, they should have known on 28 September, a week beforehand, that Khashoggi was due to go back a week later. They should have also known that he was a likely target.
  2. If they were bugging the Consulate, as they've hinted, they should have known or had some idea about the planned abduction and either taken steps to warn him or at least monitored the Consulate more closely, for example at the rear where the only video coverage was from the school opposite.
  3. If they knew the killing had taken / was taking place, as they've hinted, and who'd done it, they should have arrested or at least detained those they thought were responsible instead of letting them leave that night, some on scheduled international flights. None had diplomatic immunity and the Turks knew (or should have known) they'd committed murder in Turkey.
  4. Once they had permission to search the Consulate they should have done so immediately instead of losing the opportunity by leaking the names of the fifteen Saudis.
  5. They should have prevented the cleaners with their buckets, mops and paint, from going in to the Consulate to contaminate a known / believed murder scene.
  6. They should have requested the Consul remain in the country to help the police, and delayed his departure (see above) if necessary / possible until they had an answer.
  7. They should have asked for some answers from Pompeo, as well as some respect rather than just a stop-over at the airport.
When have they done "the right thing"?
According to the BBC (TV news so no link, sorry) they're reportedly not now going to give copies of the alleged tapes to the US despite having reportedly previously said they would, do you can add that to the list.
 
According to the BBC (TV news so no link, sorry) they're reportedly not now going to give copies of the alleged tapes to the US despite having reportedly previously said they would, do you can add that to the list.
I’m not sure I’d read too much into the Turkish decision not to (publicly) release the tapes to the US. Turkish is notoriously insular on intelligence sharing matters; moreover in other Posts we’ve seen how Turkey is controlling events and deepening the crisis for KSA by their very measured release of information.
 
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I’m not sure I’d read too much into the Turkish decision not to (publicly) releare the tapes to the US. Turkish is notoriously insular on intelligence sharing matters; moreover on other Posts we’ve seen how Turkey is controlling events and deepening the crisis for KSA by their vey measured release of information.
So they're alienating the KSA and the USA? ... and that's Turkey "doing the right thing" and taking "a step in the right direction to restore its international standing (and keep in closer to the Western Club)" ?

... hmmm ...
 
The only party doing the right thing here seems to be Turkey, and this will be a step in the right direction to restore its international standing (and keep in closer to the Western Club).
Dunno about the latter part and why is it doing it? It's not as if Erdogan's squeaky clean in respect of this kind of thing is it?

Vlad must be chuffed to rocks, MBS acting as a political bullet magnet for him.

Reckon he might be due a visit before Iiyad.
 
..."the right thing" ???

I'd have said (and, come to think of it, have said!) that they've consistently done the wrong thing from the start, and they've made themselves look prats along with everyone else involved (Khashoggi, the hit team, the clean up squad, the Saudis, the Americans ...):
  1. If they were bugging the Consulate, as they've hinted, they should have known on 28 September, a week beforehand, that Khashoggi was due to go back a week later. They should have also known that he was a likely target.
  2. If they were bugging the Consulate, as they've hinted, they should have known or had some idea about the planned abduction and either taken steps to warn him or at least monitored the Consulate more closely, for example at the rear where the only video coverage was from the school opposite.
  3. If they knew the killing had taken / was taking place, as they've hinted, and who'd done it, they should have arrested or at least detained those they thought were responsible instead of letting them leave that night, some on scheduled international flights. None had diplomatic immunity and the Turks knew (or should have known) they'd committed murder in Turkey.
  4. Once they had permission to search the Consulate they should have done so immediately instead of losing the opportunity by leaking the names of the fifteen Saudis.
  5. They should have prevented the cleaners with their buckets, mops and paint, from going in to the Consulate to contaminate a known / believed murder scene.
  6. They should have requested the Consul remain in the country to help the police, and delayed his departure (see above) if necessary / possible until they had an answer.
  7. They should have asked for some answers from Pompeo, as well as some respect rather than just a stop-over at the airport.
When have they done "the right thing"?
Source(s) could easily be LE staff on the government payroll, it's normal.
 

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