Saudi Aramco Refinery Attacked by Drones

You need to see the Houthi videos of outlying Saudi border emplacements that get overrun by them (link below). They are in commanding positions, extremely difficult to assault, inside you find pathetic lean to hovels for the squaddies and rubbish and excrement everywhere in piles.


FOC
 

Mike Barton

War Hero
While we are all nodding our heads wisely about how utterly useless the Saudis are in bringing a rebellion of goat herders under control in Yemen, let's not forget that when faced with the same situation in the same place we too were sent packing with our tails between our legs, despite Mad Mitch's best efforts.
 

Le_addeur_noir

On ROPS
On ROPs
Brent crude oil price, After peaking at just under $72.00 when the market opened- a rise in the order of 19%, things have settled down, and a few minutes ago at 03:30 BST, the BBC were showing Brent crude at $66.81-a rise of 10.94 on Friday's closing price.

By the time the British working day starts, at this rate, this rise may be looking like a storm in a teacup.

This is only a spot price, most oil is procured on contract, and will be hardly affected by this price (hopefully) blip,

This probably won't prevent the more greedy garage operators in the UK jacking up their forecourt prices by anything up to 5p a litre, but the prospect of panic buying is unlikely.

That is unless Corbyn's friends (and paymasters?) in Tehran pull off some other outrage.
 
Trump says the US is ‘locked and loaded’. The rest of the story reiterates the various stances.

However, an additional piece mentions an ‘unnamed US official’ who told reporters the drones and allegedly cruise missiles came from the north west and not south where Yemen lies. This would be (if true), more in line with the attack coming from Iran itself or more likely from Iranian sponsored militias in Iraq.

19 points of impact noted, the Houthi’s said ten drones were used. Whether the ‘points of impact’ can be confused with secondary explosions is unknown (see edit):
The U.S. official, who asked not to be named, said on Sunday there were 19 points of impact in the attack on Saudi facilities and that evidence showed the launch area was west-northwest of the targets - not south from Yemen.

The official added that Saudi officials indicated they had seen signs that cruise missiles were used in the attack, which is inconsistent with the Iran-aligned Houthi group’s claim that it conducted the attack with 10 drones.
He reiterated that Iran is responsible:
“There’s no doubt that Iran is responsible for this. No matter how you slice it, there’s no escaping it. There’s no other candidate,” the official told reporters.
E2A: Scope, precision of Saudi oil attacks show Iran to blame: U.S....
Satellite imagery shows 19 points of impact. Presumably BDA has taken place. More than 17 systems were apparently used. Not all reached their target:
More than 17 systems were deployed, they said. Not all systems reached their targets, and some were recovered north of their intended destination, they said.

“The Houthi have never struck this far afield in the past because we don’t think that they have that capability. And the Houthi have never struck in this precise and coordinated fashion before,” a second official told reporters.
 
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No chance. Great Granddad Bush was responsible for and brokered most of the original oil deals in the region.
Odd its never mentioned in biographies since post war he worked for Harry Truman and CBS
 
While we are all nodding our heads wisely about how utterly useless the Saudis are in bringing a rebellion of goat herders under control in Yemen, let's not forget that when faced with the same situation in the same place we too were sent packing with our tails between our legs, despite Mad Mitch's best efforts.
A general melt-down in Yemen was predicted well in advance as people plotting a graph of rapidly rising population against falling water supply and noted that this would result in an inevitable explosion. This is one place which is best left alone if you have any choice about it.
 
It’s not really the drone thats an issue in this example, if you can get your hands on poisonous gas delivering by drone is a bit opulent.
Chlorine easy enough to source, Phosgene to manufacture no one says it has to be Sarin or something hard to get
 
The problem is that in those places there is always something of strategic importance coveted by politicians. So they send over the military to show their interest. 20 years is nothing over there, I was in Aden as a padbrat 55 years ago........and they were shooting at us and tossing grenades in our general direction back then.

Almost a hundred years before my first visit there Gordon Pasha paid the ultimate price and sometime later T E Lawrence was running around the region. Europeans create borders, split tribal homelands and then sell modern weaponry to people’s with a mentality that did not move much further forward after the Crusades. Best to avoid the place, let them find their own level and then speak to the winners.
That is why I referred to "real" national security interests (e.g., a confirmed terrorist cell planning an attack on the nation etc.) as opposed to mere "political" ones (with apologies to those who adhere to the Clausewitzian view).
 
This is only really true since fracking started in North America.

Before then the US was a net importer and had reasons to ensure the flow of oil/regime stability

It mostly revolves around Saudi knowing its Armed Forces were crap and thinking of an Iranian invasion, once that convenient bulwark called Sadaam's Iraq was removed.

Wasn't it the invitation of US troops into Saudi during the first Gulf that got OBL's knickers in a twist originally?
Fracking has been around for a long time and is not the only reason we have become much less dependent on ME oil. The US has had huge reserves but extracting it has been hamstrung by a regulatory maze that has finally been cut through such that, together with fracking, domestic production has been dramatically increasing.

IMHO, given the costs in blood and treasure that our "adventures" and "alliances" in islamic countries caused, I think it a much better approach to further reduce the self-imposed regulatory and other impediments on oil and gas exploration and production here to reduce as much as possible our reliance on those countries for anything with the goal of total disengagement militarily and foreign aid.
 
Fracking has been around for a long time and is not the only reason we have become much less dependent on ME oil. The US has had huge reserves but extracting it has been hamstrung by a regulatory maze that has finally been cut through such that, together with fracking, domestic production has been dramatically increasing.

IMHO, given the costs in blood and treasure that our "adventures" and "alliances" in islamic countries caused, I think it a much better approach to further reduce the self-imposed regulatory and other impediments on oil and gas exploration and production here to reduce as much as possible our reliance on those countries for anything with the goal of total disengagement militarily and foreign aid.
Mostly agree, yes fracking has been around for a long time, its used in all types of wells including water wells. Yes, the Department of Energy has worked with company to cut through much.
What is really different is the exploitation of unconventional reserves using these old concepts (fracking) with new tech (directional/horizontal drilling, proppants, 4D seismic, fracking rigs) on a scale and mass not seen for decades. (for those keen for the same in Lancashire, sorry unlikely to happen)

The level of activity, the new areas opened up and the change to the energy infrastructure is huge.

Shales in the Bakken, Marcellus and Eagle Ford started lifting off 2005-2007, which given the lead in time for credible companies or start ups to get together, budget, plan, procure and start the operations doesn't match a period when reticence about the blood & treasure cost was really high. Its successes were exploited by the next administration, though the change in focus to AFG may have screwed that up

The political and import/export bits are quite interesting, as though under Obama it leapt, one side effect of unconventional gas is overturning local democrat incumbents!

IIRC when it kicked off, only one 18 LNG import terminals was set up for export as well. Certainly imports have dropped as exports have risen and I think is even getting competitive with KSA now.

Where the US sits though is challenging; use domestic production to keep energy costs down or export to compete against the world. Trying to do both seems par for the course!
 
Some Damage assessment images.
The right-hand one is very interesting, almost the same small hit on 4 sites
E2A: dang-nabbit, beaten to it..
 
Some Damage assessment images.
The right-hand one is very interesting, almost the same small hit on 4 sites
E2A: dang-nabbit, beaten to it..
I have deleted my post.
US and some ME-based 'ticked' Twitter accounts are pushing the line that the attacks were from Iranian proxies in Iraq. They cite accuracy of attacks, direction of impact - not sure this is valid as UAV can turn, etc - and refinement of construction/additional components of recovered parts of UAV.
Another tweeter made a very interesting point: with this level of accuracy from swarm UAV attacks, key point defence is made much more problematical. The main defence is the risk of retaliation but, how secure can such sites now be?
Some speculation too that attacks were made using Al-Quds cruise missiles:
 
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I have deleted my post.
US and some ME-based 'ticked' Twitter accounts are pushing the line that the attacks were from Iranian proxies in Iraq. They cite accuracy of attacks, direction of impact - not sure this is valid as UAV can turn, etc - and refinement of construction/additional components of recovered parts of UAV.
Another tweeter made a very interesting point: with this level of accuracy from swarm UAV attacks, key point defence is made much more problematical. The main defence is the risk of retaliation but, how secure can such sites now be?
Some speculation too that attacks were made using Al-Quds cruise missiles:
Thank you, your post had good range of images though and ARRSE crowd sourcing info is fine with multi posts!

The counter measures will be interesting - remember the swarm attack on the Russian Base in Syria in Jan 18?

They claimed to use a Pantsir S1 to down 7 of the drones.
Looking at the size of facility and the proximity of housing/build up areas, siting something similar that can protect such a facility, without a. brassing up the civvies in the background or b. making something else go bang is going to be quite a steep challenge
 
Considering how dependant Saudi Arabia is on it's oil production. Would it not be logical to plonk something like Iron Dome alongside it's key infrastructure to prevent something like this.. There seems to be missiles heading into Saudi on a regular basis.
 
Thank you, your post had good range of images though and ARRSE crowd sourcing info is fine with multi posts!

The counter measures will be interesting - remember the swarm attack on the Russian Base in Syria in Jan 18?

They claimed to use a Pantsir S1 to down 7 of the drones.
Looking at the size of facility and the proximity of housing/build up areas, siting something similar that can protect such a facility, without a. brassing up the civvies in the background or b. making something else go bang is going to be quite a steep challenge
It is interesting about the scope of such defences. At which points do you site a Pantsir, and how many, and - as you say - where safely can they be sited? A serious effort to protect key points from drones is going to be expensive, even for KSA.
 
Chlorine easy enough to source, Phosgene to manufacture no one says it has to be Sarin or something hard to get
True but my point was that if you can get hold of these gases, access to ventilation intakes dont really require a drone, in fact, it is probably more inconspicuous dressing up in high vis and pretending to be maintenance whilst you pour 5 gallons of phosgene into an air vent than trying to fly a drone in.
 
I would recon, too much hand holding, spoon feeding by the Americans and Brits. At some point you have to take the training wheels of the bikes and let them slowly get on with it. You can support, but the Arabs and ME have become far too used to Western support, even apart from the military. All those oil funds help to recruit I guess..
A colleague of mine got booted off Al Yamamah and back to blighty because he refused to give a lazy arab a good end of year review. Idiot, we only went there for the tax free wages, nurses and 2 years away to get a deposit for a house, who gives a shit if they are lazy!
 
Considering how dependant Saudi Arabia is on it's oil production. Would it not be logical to plonk something like Iron Dome alongside it's key infrastructure to prevent something like this.. There seems to be missiles heading into Saudi on a regular basis.

Houthis have successfully attacked Saudi Patriot batteries by sending drones to attack the radars.
 

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