Russian Troop Movements Reported Near Ukraine

See the difference?
It lies solely in the reason, not the process.

Are we now applying a 'good enough reason' test to the right to self-determination?
 
I've no doubt the talking is still going on personally. There's an awful lot of each others diplomats in each country. Reminds me of the comms between Russia and the US in Syria, ensuring there was deconfliction.
That's good to learn. Despite all the evidence of a military build up, Russia has a lot to lose (if it is looking at the situation solely from a rational perspective) from getting further involved in Ukraine.
 
That's good to learn. Despite all the evidence of a military build up, Russia has a lot to lose (if it is looking at the situation solely from a rational perspective) from getting further involved in Ukraine.
I hope Putin remembers what happened in 1914. However, it's less likely "some bloke called Archie Duke shot an ostrich 'cause he was hungry."
 
I hope Putin remembers what happened in 1914. However, it's less likely "some bloke called Archie Duke shot an ostrich 'cause he was hungry."

It's quite a hard situation to comment upon without sounding either alarmist or too laid back. The fact that there is a lot of manpower and equipment in an area where a minor incident might easily escalate (or be escalated intentionally) is obviously a concern.
I wonder whether Putin might hope he can expand Russian territory in Ukraine, limited (as he might see it) to an increase in the territory of the two republics, claiming he's doing it to defend ethnic Russians. He could then attempt to call an early stop to proceedings, and even invite monitoring of the new borders; having a massively destabilising impact on Ukraine - in terms of internal politics, the economy, viability of the state even, for limited commitment? And at the same time, making it clear to Biden etc that Russia is to be taken seriously? (or the seizure of some coastal territory, quickly done and then Russia calls a unilateral ceasefire). Idle speculation on my part.

Edit: that was a load of waffle which should have been put as 'Putin can achieve a lot of destabilisation with a minimum commitment of force' :)
 
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It's quite a hard situation to comment about without sounding either alarmist or too laid back. The fact that there is a lot of manpower and equipment in an area where a minor incident might easily escalate (or be escalated intentionally) is obviously a concern.
I wonder whether Putin might hope he can expand Russian territory in Ukraine, limited (as he might see it) to an increase in the territory of the two republics, claiming he's doing it to defend ethnic Russians. He could then attempt to call an early stop to proceedings, and even invite monitoring of the new borders; having a massively destabilising impact on Ukraine - in terms of internal politics, the economy, viability of the state even, for limited commitment? And at the same time, making it clear to Biden etc that Russia is to be taken seriously? (or the seizure of some coastal territory, quickly done and then Russia calls a unilateral ceasefire). Idle speculation on my part.
Bottom line, is the juice worth the squeeze? I've no doubt the Russians could do that. They couldn't take Mariupol last time using 'holiday makers' but if the troops have the air support and access to the kit they appear to be lining up, they'll do it.

Makes him (more of) a 'hero' to some at home and abroad. Makes him (more of) a pariah (to some) abroad. The knock on effects from that, from more sanctions to actually killing off the Nord Stream deal (I doubt it, but it's the upper end of consequences imo); could see the Russian economy taking a proper hit hence me mentioning 1914 above.

He's an opportunist and he'll want something for little consequence. Gambling his position of power for a bit more 'barrier land'? More 'cargo 200' state secrets?

I suppose he could always try and endear the Ukrainian people to Russia so that they want to be allies and join the CSTO again? :)
 
Bottom line, is the juice worth the squeeze? I've no doubt the Russians could do that. They couldn't take Mariupol last time using 'holiday makers' but if the troops have the air support and access to the kit they appear to be lining up, they'll do it.

Makes him (more of) a 'hero' to some at home and abroad. Makes him (more of) a pariah (to some) abroad. The knock on effects from that, from more sanctions to actually killing off the Nord Stream deal (I doubt it, but it's the upper end of consequences imo); could see the Russian economy taking a proper hit hence me mentioning 1914 above.

He's an opportunist and he'll want something for little consequence. Gambling his position of power for a bit more 'barrier land'? More 'cargo 200' state secrets?

I suppose he could always try and endear the Ukrainian people to Russia so that they want to be allies and join the CSTO again? :)

The coastal approach would seem to make sense, if Putin is determined to do something. It would considerably weaken the Ukraine.
I wonder whether Putin might be tempted to attempt a limited (he hopes) military action as it would also cause chaos/disruption in the West by ensuring a rapid reconsideration of the current Far Eastern focus.
 
Go and give your head a good wobble. Oh, you already have.
The distinction I make is when the civil service tells Parliament what laws to enact and how, it’s a bit like Russia and China. Normally parliaments make the laws and CS figure out how it’s done, the formulate policy. That’s why it’s a civil service. Note the Commission does not view itself as a service But a policy determinant
 
Screenshot from Twitter:

1618605988791.png
 

miner69er

Old-Salt
Vlad , Vlad - tis not good. All your messing about has cost me and my family a lot of moolah. They have frozen my assets in Londonya and my daughter cant spend my ill gotten millions buying thing - tis not good.
You have to sort this out otherwise we might need new man in place who not upset apple cart.
 
Vlad , Vlad - tis not good. All your messing about has cost me and my family a lot of moolah. They have frozen my assets in Londonya and my daughter cant spend my ill gotten millions buying thing - tis not good.
You have to sort this out otherwise we might need new man in place who not upset apple cart.
Off to the Gulag with you Sergei and your millions are now my millions.
 
Beijing is playing the very long game and has got Moscow where it wants, in its pocket. For the time being the Dragon is happy stringing the Bear along, letting it growl and swat at the West as a convenient distraction from its own long-term aims, which are to re-establish the Middle Kingdom's pre-eminence in the world and ensure that all other nations are subject to the Celestial Empire.

For the reasons given in my explanation of what I call the "Muscovite Mindset", the Kremlin cannot see that the major long-term, overarching, strategic, geopolitical threat to the country known as Russia lies in Beijing.

The only way that this threat can be successfully countered in the long-run is by a change in the way Russia is governed, leading to an alignment with the democratic, legal, social and economic norms of the West and inclusion into a formal alliance. Again for the reasons given in my explanation of what I call the "Muscovite Mindset" the Kremlin cannot countenance such a change.
 
To continue with the gist of my above post, I can easily imagine history going full circle and Moscow returning to be exactly what it once was: - A tax collector and rent farmer for its Asiatic overlords, only this time it is the Han Chinese absorbers and inheritors of the Mongols and not the Mongols themselves.
 
To continue with the gist of my above post, I can easily imagine history going full circle and Moscow returning to be exactly what it once was: - A tax collector and rent farmer for its Asiatic overlords, only this time it is the Han Chinese absorbers and inheritors of the Mongols and not the Mongols themselves.

Ouch!
 
I'll apologise for this being somewhat off-topic, but I'll just drop this here for our ardent Sinophile and defender of the Westphalian order:
It also indicates why the "Muscovite Mindset" leaves the Kremlin comfortable with Beijing.
 
I'll apologise for this being somewhat off-topic, but I'll just drop this here for our ardent Sinophile and defender of the Westphalian order:
It also indicates why the "Muscovite Mindset" leaves the Kremlin comfortable with Beijing.

Stop baiting @RCT(V)! The wrath of (something) will descent on you.
 
Hmmm I haven't thought this chap as being particularly Sinophile.

And there you go, assigning a gender profile! Take yourself off for an E&D course.
 

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