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Ukraine War in Ukraine

As we have lapsed into DroneWorld has there been any evidence of the Switchblade loitering/kamikaze drones the Septics were meant to be supplying.
 
Well above my pay grade! I was only allowed to play BC with a Bty on exercise, and wasn't the CRA 1(UK) Div! For amusement's sake I'll pretend to be a 1*.

The bugger with arty is that it's extremely vulnerable, especially when moving and coming into action. The main threat to arty at the moment are drones. The second threat are the enemy arty locating radars (not sure in the Russians still deploy sound ranging) linked to counter-battery units (enemy artillery that stays 'hidden' ('masked' is the arty term) and not engaged in the battle, just waiting until opposing arty is located). A dedicated counter-battery unit should be able to launch rounds to target within 60 seconds of the first enemy gun firing.

Typically, towed artillery is the most vulnerable: it takes longer to come into and out of action, and has no protection against small-arms fire or shrapnel/splinters. Towed arty also needs to be 'together' on the firing point in order to be properly surveyed into position (small errors at the gun line = massive errors 25km away).

Modern self-propelled arty is much more flexible: it can come into action and out of action in under a minute, and typically offers a 3 round burst in under 10 seconds, before being able to move to another location. The latest systems (e.g. the Korean K9) don't even have to be particularly close to each other to engage the same target.

So what to do?

I'd wait until nearly all the enemy drones had been destroyed, or we had enough GBAD to stop any drone getting near the guns. Then I'd certainly concentrate them in 2-3 areas (there was talk of 100 Panzerhaubitze 2000 going their way: a truly huge amount of firepower): first one to counter the strongest Russian attack, and the second and third to give support to Ua land forces in their counter-attacks into orc held territory.

Arty needs to be concentrated for maximum effect, though that was before the use of PGM: against static vehicles, one gun firing PGM has been shown to be a lot more effective than an 8 gun bty firing standard HE. Against troops (dug in, in buildings, or in the open), nothing beats concentrated arty: proximity fuses giving high air-burst round to shred humans and soft-skin vehicles, PD (point detonation) against armoured vehicles and troops in woodland (trees explode with satisfyingly deadly splinters when hit by an arty round), and Delay to collapse enemy trenches.

The challenge for the Ua military will be keeping their PzH 2000 protected, supplied with ammunition, moving them out of counter-battery range in time, and getting them new barrels as they wear out.
What do you think of barrel wear on the Russian side, must be kicking in by now?
 
I don't understand why you feel the need to be so defensive - especially in respect of your mate on the front line.

Every now and then this thread has a bit of a discussion about what comes next and the general concensus seems to evolve around Ukraine pushing the Russian military out of the country. Whenever anybody questions how they might do this, the responses head off into fairyland.

Ukraine is bleeding troops. It cannot go on forever. What the 'few' have done so far is quite remarkable - be they Ukrainian nationals or foreign volunteers.

The Ukrainian military has been unable to build a reserve to mount any sustained counter-attack and not a single counter-offensive. Why? Because any 'spare' troops they have are needed at the front immediatly to plug gaps in the line and backfill losses.

At some point, perhaps soon, Ukraine is not going to have any spare troops left to send to the front. Ask yourself, who are these fresh troops going to be? How many more Ukrainian men and woman are going to volunteer that haven't already done so?

Some posters talk about Ukraine pursuing and winning a war of attrition. Methinks they may have been seduced too much by pictures of tractors pulling tanks and chosen to ignore demographics and stockpiles. Ukraine cannot win a war of attrition. Moscow still has hundreds of thousands of troops to call upon and millions of reservists - but, for domestic political reasons, is choosing not to use them. What does Ukraine have left?

Moscow clearly miscalculated badly and its troops are suffering the consequences of that miscalculation. This was never supposed to be a grind where every inch of soil is being fought over. Russia can, and will, absorb the losses both politically, socially and demographically. Can Ukraine? Remember, it's not just blood but everything else. The East has been depopulated and towns and cities razed to the ground. How does Ukraine recover from that? And when?

Ukraine doesn't need our messages of sympathy, solidarity or acknowledgement of moral authority. It needs the war and the bloodshed stopped. It needs the Russians out. It needs the Russians to accept that Ukraine is off limits now and forever. And the most effective thing that we can do, as individuals and as a collective, is to break the will of the Russian people to support Muskovy and the Kremlin. In other words, break them economically until they squeal.

But how many people on this thread, in the EU and the rest of Europe in general, are more concerned by their energy bills, cost of living, house prices, income and jobs than seeing Ukraine safe and secure?

Posting comical memes, chuntering over video clips and writing Slava Ukraini is no help to Ukraine, it's future nor their troops on the frontline. Writing posts to collect positive comments and likes does not help Ukraine.

Ukraine is haemorrhaging and if it is to survive, all of us in the safety of countries lying to their west need to suffer some economic pain to see Russian effort stopped. This war started 8 years ago. And Europe (EU et al) have financed the Russian war machine. It's still going on.

Some posters talk about Ukraine pursuing and winning a war of attrition. Methinks they may have been seduced too much by pictures of tractors pulling tanks and chosen to ignore demographics and stockpiles. Ukraine cannot win a war of attrition. Moscow still has hundreds of thousands of troops to call upon and millions of reservists - but, for domestic political reasons, is choosing not to use them. What does Ukraine have left?

They may well be able to win a war of attrition, or perhaps more accurately a battle of endurance. Much depends on the Russian will and ability to keep on waging a war of aggression that yields few tangible gains.

There are a lot of variables, such as the functionality of Russia's battle groups, and the troops' willingness to fight. It's also an open question whether the Russians can recall and equip reservists, what their ammo and POL state is - their arms industry appears to be in serious trouble. Add to that growing economic woes, rumours of Kremlin plots, Ukrainian integration of NATO weapons systems etc.

The Ukrainians appear to be hanging in there and trusting to the Russians to lose the war.
 
I don't think any of us in the thread know for certain what's actually happening.

The best information is that agreed by both sides- e.g. there's still fighting in Mariupol, there aren't any Russians left north of Kiev, Kherson is closer to the front lines than a few weeks ago, etc.

Relative force losses, true capabilities, future plans- every armchair general here has their own opinion. Some seem reasonable, others a decade or two out of date.

I'm not sure there's much point arguing about "I believe/you believe" when we can't quickly prove which article of faith is correct.

I think the common ground is that most here want Russia to lose, and to do so as quickly as possible, at enough cost to dissuade them from trying this expedition again for many many years.
 
Anyway now thats sorted. How audible would an electric quad copter be at that height really? The Orlan(?) fixed wing the Russians use apparently sounds like a chainsaw but would you hear even a largeish multi-copter especially if the pilot was not throwing it around?
Let’s not forget that Russian positions are not likely to be silent and their troops will probably have NIHL to some degree and they’ve probably been told they have air superiority so will assume anything they hear is friendly.
 
Typically, towed artillery is the most vulnerable: it takes longer to come into and out of action, and has no protection against small-arms fire or shrapnel/splinters. Towed arty also needs to be 'together' on the firing point in order to be properly surveyed into position (small errors at the gun line = massive errors 25km away).
M777 has an onboard digital FCS similar to Paladin that does self locating. This means they can fire from dispersed firing positions rather than traditional linear firing lines. Concentrating the fires rather then the guns increases survivability.
 
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I read the specs for the aforementioned drone.

140kg to a range of 70 miles. In the small print the battery life is 34 minutes.

Personally, I think it’s best to use these kind of things to pester Russian forces.
Nope.
Usual aircraft sales rubbish.
It does 70 mile range. It can carry 180 kg. It can travel at 35 m/s
Pick one !

The nitty-gritty is here:
TRV-400
 
Anybody who thinks Ukraine isn't suffering dead, crippled and wounded, both military and civilian, in this war is a fool. You just have to look at the images of destroyed towns, cities and villages. That level of destruction doesn't happen without casualties. I'm just hoping that with enough support from the West, and any other country that is willing to pitch in, Ukraine can kick the Russians out. Then we have to help them rebuild.
From another perspective: RUS is fighting (at best) inefficiently. RUS troops and their commanders seem to be almost entirely devoid of competence in even (what are in in our army, with all its well-recognised failings) what we see as the the most basic and essential skills appropriate AT EACH AND EVERY LEVEL.FROM BUCKSHEE PTE SOLDIER TO CHIEF OF GENERAL STAFF

Downside of this is they default to terrorising-by-long-range-murder, the civilian population, and endeavour to make up for the inability (flat out refusal?) of their front-line troops to advance, by bombarding UKR entrenched positions.

Let us hope the latter is going as well for the RUS in 2022, as it did for us on the Somme 104 years ago.

In the meantime, Azovstal/Mariupol seems today to be subject to a RUS attempt to "storm" the position (whatever that term may mean when employed by the Press). I'm assuming a ground attack, involving infantry, and tanks.

If/when Azovstal is captured, the defenders (if allowed to survive) will have made the RUS pay an extortionate price, in troops (killed, wounded, deserted), resupply and hardware.

Meanwhile, further West, if UKR have made a good job of their defensive lines, the RUS expenditure on artillery bombardment is unlikely to yield dramatic returns, is where my fantastic ramblings lead me.

Bottom line? If I was off to Ladbrokes tomorrow, I'd be wagering that RUS is wearing down at a much faster rate than UKR, and emphatically lacks the capacity to regenerate / recuperate

Jury's out on UKR. But they're a lot further from beaten than is Vlad's fvcking shambles of an army, would be my guess.

E.T.A.

@Emcon Ecomcon

Maybe you'd like to put me on the path of righteousness? (After you've had your late breakfast, and patrolled the car park, obvs) ^~
 
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