Russian Troop Movements Reported Near Ukraine

When Will Russia Invade Ukraine

  • Wed 16th Feb

    Votes: 20 6.9%
  • Before 22nd Feb

    Votes: 54 18.7%
  • By St David's Day (1 March)

    Votes: 93 32.2%
  • By St Georges Day (23 April)

    Votes: 22 7.6%
  • By August

    Votes: 9 3.1%
  • By Christmas

    Votes: 6 2.1%
  • Some time in 2023

    Votes: 17 5.9%
  • Before Hell Freezes Over

    Votes: 68 23.5%

  • Total voters
    289

Goatman

ADC
Book Reviewer
1656854255486.png
A man with a white flag walks on a road during an exchange of prisoners in the location given as Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, in this handout photo released on June 29, 2022. (Courtesy of Ukraine’s Military Intelligence/Handout via Reuters)

SOURCE (Reuters original)

KYIV—Ukraine on Wednesday carried out its biggest exchange of prisoners of war since Russia invaded, securing the release of 144 of its soldiers, including 95 who defended Mariupol’s steelworkers, Ukraine’s military intelligence agency said.

The majority of the Ukrainians were badly wounded, suffering from gunshot and shrapnel wounds, blast traumas, burns, fractured bones, and amputated limbs, the agency known by the acronym GUR said in a statement on Telegram.



Going forward, interesting think-piece from 'Foreign Affairs'

What If Ukraine Wins?

THE WAR AFTER THE WAR

The combination of military setbacks and punishing sanctions might eventually induce Moscow to moderate its goals, and a meaningful cease-fire might become achievable.

But a more far-reaching negotiated settlement is probably out of the question for Putin.

Russia is already treating the locations it has occupied not as bargaining chips for an eventual settlement but as Russian territory. And according to the Russian intelligence experts Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan, Kremlin hardliners want more war—not less.

Ukraine and the West should thus assume that Russia will not accept any defeat.


A small Ukrainian victory in, say, the fall of this year might well be followed by another Russian invasion in 2023. Russia would need to regroup its forces, which would be challenging under sanctions.

Even more important for Putin than imperial conquest, however, is the preservation of his own power, since autocrats who lose wars often end up in dire straits. Putin might have to temporarily accept being pushed back to his pre-invasion starting point, but he could not countenance the permanent loss of Ukraine.

He might continue small-scale fighting, missile strikes, and aerial bombardment until reinforcements—gathered through partial or full mobilization—arrived. Alternatively, Putin could cynically use a cease-fire to buy time for bad-faith negotiations, much as he did before the February invasion.

Meanwhile, to deter future Russian attacks, Ukraine would likely have to ask for more weaponry than ever. Assenting to this would be difficult for Western powers, as Russia would be seeking relief from sanctions and taking its usual divide-and-conquer approach to Washington and its allies.

For the Western powers, a theoretical solution would be to offer Ukraine security guarantees in exchange for Ukrainian neutrality. But Russia could put those promises to the test in a renewed attack—and sanctions relief, if it ever came to pass, would have to be slow.


With Putin’s Russia, the approach must be “distrust and verify.”
 
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kandak01

War Hero
View attachment 674727 A man with a white flag walks on a road during an exchange of prisoners in the location given as Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, in this handout photo released on June 29, 2022. (Courtesy of Ukraine’s Military Intelligence/Handout via Reuters)

SOURCE (Reuters original)

KYIV—Ukraine on Wednesday carried out its biggest exchange of prisoners of war since Russia invaded, securing the release of 144 of its soldiers, including 95 who defended Mariupol’s steelworkers, Ukraine’s military intelligence agency said.

The majority of the Ukrainians were badly wounded, suffering from gunshot and shrapnel wounds, blast traumas, burns, fractured bones, and amputated limbs, the agency known by the acronym GUR said in a statement on Telegram.



Going forward, interesting think-piece from 'Foreign Affairs'

What If Ukraine Wins?

THE WAR AFTER THE WAR

The combination of military setbacks and punishing sanctions might eventually induce Moscow to moderate its goals, and a meaningful cease-fire might become achievable.

But a more far-reaching negotiated settlement is probably out of the question for Putin.

Russia is already treating the locations it has occupied not as bargaining chips for an eventual settlement but as Russian territory. And according to the Russian intelligence experts Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan, Kremlin hardliners want more war—not less.

Ukraine and the West should thus assume that Russia will not accept any defeat.


A small Ukrainian victory in, say, the fall of this year might well be followed by another Russian invasion in 2023. Russia would need to regroup its forces, which would be challenging under sanctions.

Even more important for Putin than imperial conquest, however, is the preservation of his own power, since autocrats who lose wars often end up in dire straits. Putin might have to temporarily accept being pushed back to his pre-invasion starting point, but he could not countenance the permanent loss of Ukraine.

He might continue small-scale fighting, missile strikes, and aerial bombardment until reinforcements—gathered through partial or full mobilization—arrived. Alternatively, Putin could cynically use a cease-fire to buy time for bad-faith negotiations, much as he did before the February invasion.

Meanwhile, to deter future Russian attacks, Ukraine would likely have to ask for more weaponry than ever. Assenting to this would be difficult for Western powers, as Russia would be seeking relief from sanctions and taking its usual divide-and-conquer approach to Washington and its allies.

For the Western powers, a theoretical solution would be to offer Ukraine security guarantees in exchange for Ukrainian neutrality. But Russia could put those promises to the test in a renewed attack—and sanctions relief, if it ever came to pass, would have to be slow.

With Putin’s Russia, the approach must be “distrust and verify.”
That's the problem with zero sum policy as prosecuted by Putin: he's forcing his adversaries into a decision about choosing either total defeat or total victory, hoping the west is too weak to pay the price for the latter
 
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No - Uzbekistan is not Russia, quite the opposite. They're mindful that Russia's a neighbour and can't be ignored but they make a considerable effort to keep Moscow at arm's length - which is one of the reasons they've invested heavily in gasification technology to reduce dependence on Russian oil.

All the former Soviet Republics have legacy issues and Uzbekistan is no different.

Realise that but is the Uzbech Government pro-/anti-Putin
 
An interesting listen from Times Radio.

 
Sandhurst has been training Uzbek OCdts for several years. All open source info.

Wonder if they get ideas over here and go "cooooooo....". Assuming of course they get enough time off to have a brush with culture and democracy.
 
. . .

For the Western powers, a theoretical solution would be to offer Ukraine security guarantees in exchange for Ukrainian neutrality. But Russia could put those promises to the test in a renewed attack—and sanctions relief, if it ever came to pass, would have to be slow.

With Putin’s Russia, the approach must be “distrust and verify.”

Already done when Ukraine gave up its nukes in 1994. The Budapest Memorandum was signed by the US, UK and Russia with support from France and China. It carefully did not quite guarantee border security or political stability and was broken, almost without result, by Russia in 2014 (though that was, of course, everyone elses fault for existing and being politically and economically attractive to the the Ukrainian population).
 
They could always double down on their recent increase of the maximum age for military service to 50....oh....

The older the soldiers, the more often the advances will need to stop for a quick break along the way as the troops ask to 'be excused'.

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And don't even think about fast river crossings.
 

FORMER_FYRDMAN

LE
Book Reviewer
Realise that but is the Uzbech Government pro-/anti-Putin
It's pro-Uzbek and will not look favourably on anyone trying to restore Russian authority in any degree. How that will manifest itself may vary from stan to stan but the strategic hope will be that Ukraine marks the high water mark of Putin's ambitions.
 
Some photos of the Ru evacuation of Snake Island on 29/06. The island was subsequently bombed - incendiaries - presumably to destroy equipment that couldn't be removed.
FWvmsvFXkAA9GiC.jpeg
FWvmuB3XkAEso5D.jpeg
 
Maybe Russia..maybe not
 
It is reported that several Ukrainian ladies (and gents) have started getting their kit off and donating the cash made from naughtiness online to the war effort.

I would supply the relevant information, but I fear the mods would have a sense of humour failure.
 

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