Russian Troop Movements Reported Near Ukraine

When Will Russia Invade Ukraine

  • Wed 16th Feb

    Votes: 20 6.9%
  • Before 22nd Feb

    Votes: 54 18.7%
  • By St David's Day (1 March)

    Votes: 93 32.2%
  • By St Georges Day (23 April)

    Votes: 22 7.6%
  • By August

    Votes: 9 3.1%
  • By Christmas

    Votes: 6 2.1%
  • Some time in 2023

    Votes: 17 5.9%
  • Before Hell Freezes Over

    Votes: 68 23.5%

  • Total voters
    289
The M-05 is vulnerable to bilateral attack from Transnistria and Mykolaiv. The railway is well within range of Mykolaiv. Note that Vinnytska, through which the railway runs, far to the North, was being targeted in the last hour ...
Any roads or railways, even with Western Ukraine, can be hit by missile attack, but once again, that is not what you said.

It's looking very likely that Mykolaiv will soon be the centre of somewhat more attention. Should that, in turn, fall, then Odessa can only be resupplied from the sea, or from the West, in which eventuality, Transnistria becomes a player.
Odessa has the catacombs, but the Mariupol experience show that there are effective subterranean munitions.

Even a cursory look at the map shows that this is simply not true. Odessa can be supplied by railway from the NNW by a railway that admitted runs close to Transnistria in places, a highway that runs due North to Kyiv, and another railway that runs to the NNE.
 
The M-05 is vulnerable to bilateral attack from Transnistria and Mykolaiv. The railway is well within range of Mykolaiv. Note that Vinnytska, through which the railway runs, far to the North, was being targeted in the last hour ...
I highly doubt that Transnistria are going to attack into Ukraine at this stage. The Ukraine could just use the place as a live-fire training ground.

The only realistic prospect of invading anywhere for Transnistria is to take Moldova's capital, Chișinău, with a lightning thrust at the airports and administrative buildings, and then hope to hell that Russia sends reinforcements PDQ.
 
I even commented about it back in this thread ... and I see that was also an interchange between us


indeed, and I find it confusing that, despite the undoubted potential of the soil, the poor quality and over harvesting is often given as a reason for the poor yields.
Edited to Add: A bit of nominative determinism here: Wheatcroft is the historian who has analysed this!

Stalin murdered more than 10 million experienced farmers and put people in charge of agricultural matters who had no subject matter knowledge or experience. What could possibly go wrong?
 

longhair

Old-Salt
The Holodomor was caused by Stalin's policies. ...

It isn't that confusing, really.
Thanks for your overview. Specifically the political viewpoint. What's missing though is whether the policies exploited the natural / environmental problems of the time, was policy carefully constructed to exacerbate those problems. Had the crops not failed, would even more political repression have been applied? Was this the first deliberate exploitation of a natural disaster in "Europe" on this scale?

Part of the problem is that "Holodomor" is of itself an emotive, loaded word, which makes it hard to assess cause and effect. In the British Isles we have "The Great Potato Famine", that too a combination of biology, politics, and nationalism, but we have lost some of that meaning in the nomenclature.
 

longhair

Old-Salt
The only realistic prospect of invading anywhere for Transnistria is to take Moldova's capital, Chișinău,
Insightful, and possibly shared by the Moldovans themselves, who, not being currently involved in any international territorial disputes, and who might have an application to join NATO rather more favourably regarded than Ukr?
 

Bubbles_Barker

LE
Book Reviewer
I highly doubt that Transnistria are going to attack into Ukraine at this stage. The Ukraine could just use the place as a live-fire training ground.

The only realistic prospect of invading anywhere for Transnistria is to take Moldova's capital, Chișinău, with a lightning thrust at the airports and administrative buildings, and then hope to hell that Russia sends reinforcements PDQ.
Yeah, those Russian lightning thrusts at airports and capitals have worked well so far, no?
 
In case anyone missed it.

 
Thanks for your overview. Specifically the political viewpoint. What's missing though is whether the policies exploited the natural / environmental problems of the time, was policy carefully constructed to exacerbate those problems. Had the crops not failed, would even more political repression have been applied? Was this the first deliberate exploitation of a natural disaster in "Europe" on this scale?

Part of the problem is that "Holodomor" is of itself an emotive, loaded word, which makes it hard to assess cause and effect. In the British Isles we have "The Great Potato Famine", that too a combination of biology, politics, and nationalism, but we have lost some of that meaning in the nomenclature.
The grain taken from Ukraine by Moscow in 1932 alone would have fed over 12 million people for a year. They had plenty of grain reserves and could simply and easily have prevented the famine. Moscow also refused all offers of external aid.

No, it was not exploiting a natural poor harvest. It was deliberate genocide aimed at crushing the Ukrainian nation. Sound familiar?

The reason that Holodomor is emotive is that it is emotive. You cannot look at the deliberate state-decreed death by starvation of 4 million people without it being emotive. However, the numbers are not emotive, but are a matter of record.
 

Slime

LE
Whoa, I don't want to start anything controversial or get involved in any barrack room lawyer stuff.
However, it is well known that the Israelis can get in and out of Syria quite often and avoid the S-400 AD systems that the Syrians have.

You have repeated it again :)

What is well known?

You see, looking at what you have just repeated is quite meaningless without additional info.

It‘s a bit like saying it was well known that Russian Su25 aircraft were penetrating Turkish airspace in 2016……………….yes, it was well known, but then Turkey got fed up with the way Russia was acting and shot an Su25 down…………..

It was just so much easier when Turkey wasn’t actually doing anything to stop the incursions.
 

Slime

LE
How about we go in and skullfuck the Russians for a few generations, reverse the territory grab, help Ukraine rebuild and join us in a more modern society, stabilise European energy, which in turn would bring down the cost of living significantly, reinstall some pride in our cultural values and bring our Armed Forces up to a decent strength to help persuade others from being a dick.
The voters won't like that.
 

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