Russian Troop Movements Reported Near Ukraine

When Will Russia Invade Ukraine

  • Wed 16th Feb

    Votes: 20 6.9%
  • Before 22nd Feb

    Votes: 54 18.7%
  • By St David's Day (1 March)

    Votes: 93 32.2%
  • By St Georges Day (23 April)

    Votes: 22 7.6%
  • By August

    Votes: 9 3.1%
  • By Christmas

    Votes: 6 2.1%
  • Some time in 2023

    Votes: 17 5.9%
  • Before Hell Freezes Over

    Votes: 68 23.5%

  • Total voters
    289
Based on earlier discussion about upping war production, if NATO are at 300,000 troops with supporting equipment, with surely a strategy of expected losses and ammo expenditure, it’s either a ‘show of force’ without depth, or we know that if action is required, our air assets which we have not donated would pound the Russians into dust before a single NATO MLRS was required to fire?!

I'm not sure if we can take air superiority over the Russians for granted in a hot war scenario. Yes I've seen Top Gun and know NATO fast jet jockeys are God's gift etc, but we have seen how Ukraine has been able to deny Russia air superiority even over small parts of the Donbass with smart use of GBAD and a few MiG-29s.

This article on the subject is really interesting, though I'm not qualified to say how valid it is.
In Denial About Denial: Why Ukraine’s Air Success Should Worry the West - War on the Rocks

@Fox3WMB - any comment?
 
I don’t think it’s enough. Let’s not pat ourselves on the back too hard. Whilst the UK’s contribution to Ukraine is long-standing and sizeable compared to some European peers, £2 billion in military aid is 0.1% of UK GDP and is absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of things. For context it is:

  • 4 days NHS spending based on 2019 numbers
  • 14% of the UK 2020 Foreign Aid budget
  • 5% of the UK Test and Trace budget
  • 62% of the spending on Ajax with zero vehicles delivered
  • 50% of the cost of the scrapped Nimrod programme
This aid is not enough to help Ukraine win the war. For context, the Poles are donating 3x more as a percentage of GDP to Ukraine, have delivered the heaviest of heavy weapons (tanks, planes, helicopters, towed and tracked artillery, MLRS etc). They are also actively upgrading their own armed forces in a big way to allow them to defend against Russia, all announced since Feb 24th:


You know it's not top trumps. You could have given all this kit to the Ukrainian military back in 2015 and they would have likely folded when the Russians invaded.

What they needed and got was an absolute overhaul of their military to get it out of the Soviet mindset and up to NATO standard, much like we did with the old Eastern bloc countries now in NATO. Certain countries put in the groundwork so its only right others pick up the tab now, even though they're late to the party.

As someone who has been following this conflict since 2014 on and off I find it quite irksome that is presented as if it only happened. There has been plenty of time to enable Ukraine to defend itself.
 
You know it's not top trumps. You could have given all this kit to the Ukrainian military back in 2015 and they would have likely folded when the Russians invaded.

What they needed and got was an absolute overhaul of their military to get it out of the Soviet mindset and up to NATO standard, much like we did with the old Eastern bloc countries now in NATO. Certain countries put in the groundwork so its only right others pick up the tab now, even though they're late to the party.

As someone who has been following this conflict since 2014 on and off I find it quite irksome that is presented as if it only happened. There has been plenty of time to enable Ukraine to defend itself.

That may be true but Op Orbital is well in the past, and what the Ukrainians need now is completely different from what they needed from 2014 to 2021. Right now they need our money and our military industrial complex. At the moment no Western country, other than Poland and some of the Baltic states, seem to be ramping up enough support to allow the Ukrainians to win.
 

NSP

LE
My understanding is they have to do the years conscription before signing a contract, which is what the Duma wants to change ie direct entry.
Ah - so they can't eff offski on Day 366, then...?
 

WhiskeyTango

War Hero
That may be true but Op Orbital is well in the past, and what the Ukrainians need now is completely different from what they needed from 2014 to 2021. Right now they need our money and our military industrial complex. At the moment no Western country, other than Poland and some of the Baltic states, seem to be ramping up enough support to allow the Ukrainians to win.

I would suggest that they need military training just as much as they need kit.
 
Grain is ripening nicely, I see. Apparently the Ukrainian farmers got 95% normal seeds in the ground -very well done in 'difficult' circumstances.
That's an understatement.

They still have to harvest it and get it to market.

Something that Putin is loath to allow.
 


Bet you don't want to fire this.
 
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