Russian Troop Movements Reported Near Ukraine

When Will Russia Invade Ukraine

  • Wed 16th Feb

    Votes: 20 6.9%
  • Before 22nd Feb

    Votes: 54 18.7%
  • By St David's Day (1 March)

    Votes: 93 32.2%
  • By St Georges Day (23 April)

    Votes: 22 7.6%
  • By August

    Votes: 9 3.1%
  • By Christmas

    Votes: 6 2.1%
  • Some time in 2023

    Votes: 17 5.9%
  • Before Hell Freezes Over

    Votes: 68 23.5%

  • Total voters
    289
I presume the message still won't get through.


There’s actually some logic behind that claim. ISTR watching/reading something somewhere that goes into this.

France’s price for allowing Germany to unify was that Germany support France in, and adopt the €. U.K. and US were supportive of German unification but no doubt with caveats which I forget/weren’t touched on. Russia allowed the unification of Germany of Germany allowed Russian troops to still be based there whilst Germany funded the the construction of new barracks in Russia to house those troops. (Nobody wants to withdraw their troops from Garrison duty and have no where for them to live.)

However, Germany apparently also struck a deal with Russia that former soviet bloc countries wouldn’t join NATO. Now, here in lies the problem. Due to the fact that the Russians don’t quite understand democracy, Russia never quite understood that Germany doesn’t control NATO, nor can Germany tell other countries what to do. Obviously l, this was before the introduction of the € and all of the mechanisms of controlling other country’s foreign policy by controlling their debt. (I.e Greece can be bitch slapped around and some might even argue has turned its back of democratic principals because Greeces debt burden is so big and controlled by other third parties, the Greek government can do what it’s told to do.)

So, from the Russian perspective, they let Germany do something and got nothing in return.

I suspect that this is why the EU is furiously pushing for majority voting on key issues such as defence, foreign policy and finance because then those troublesome countries like the Baltic states, Poland Slovakia and the Czech Republic can be brought to heel in order to put he squeeze on Ukraine to cede territory to Russia.

It’s very easy to look at what’s going on here and see it as a simple battle of hood versus evil and a straight slogging match between two warring sides. But in reality this isn’t WW2 where two completely competing ideological beliefs caught against each other with two other main economic players such as the U.K. and France did their own thing. (The U.K. saw both as wrong so stood it’s ground, France put up token resistance and decided to collobarate with the lesser of two evils and decided to re-write its history after the event when it realised it had acquiesced with the lesser of two evils, but the one that was on the losing side.

We seem to be going back to 19th and 20th century power struggles where France and Germany are viewing for control of the continent, neither like or trust Russia, but neither are strong enough economically, politically or militarily to take on Russia so they join forces under a new banner.

I suspect Russia may be seeing that a return to a divided Russia weakens Germany, makes France the dominant EU player and can use Frances historic ‘friendships’ with Russia to control the outcome.
 
original source material on the U.S contribution to date:

Fact Sheet on U.S. Security Assistance to Ukraine

<begins> United States security assistance committed to Ukraine includes:

  • Over 1,400 Stinger anti-aircraft systems;
  • Over 6,500 Javelin anti-armor systems;
  • Over 20,000 other anti-armor systems;
  • Over 700 Switchblade Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems;
  • 126 155mm Howitzers and 260,000 155mm artillery rounds;
  • 36,000 105mm artillery rounds;
  • 126 Tactical Vehicles to tow 155mm Howitzers;
  • 19 Tactical Vehicles to recover equipment;
  • Eight High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems and ammunition;
  • 20 Mi-17 helicopters;
  • Hundreds of Armored High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles;
  • 200 M113 Armored Personnel Carriers;
  • Over 10,000 grenade launchers and small arms;
  • Over 59,000,000 rounds of small arms ammunition;
  • 75,000 sets of body armor and helmets;
  • 121 Phoenix Ghost Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems;
  • Laser-guided rocket systems;
  • Puma Unmanned Aerial Systems;
  • Unmanned Coastal Defense Vessels;
  • 22 counter-artillery radars;
  • Four counter-mortar radars;
  • Four air surveillance radars;
  • Two harpoon coastal defense systems;
  • 18 coastal and riverine patrol boats;
  • M18A1 Claymore anti-personnel munitions;
  • C-4 explosives and demolition equipment for obstacle clearing;
  • Tactical secure communications systems;
  • Thousands of night vision devices, thermal imagery systems, optics, and laser rangefinders;
  • Commercial satellite imagery services;
  • Explosive ordnance disposal protective gear;
  • Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear protective equipment;
  • Medical supplies to include first aid kits;
  • Electronic jamming equipment;
  • Field equipment and spare parts;
  • Funding for training, maintenance, and sustainment.
The United States also continues to work with its Allies and partners to identify and provide Ukraine with additional capabilities to defend itself. <ends>

Nice list however 'committed to Ukraine' isn't the same as 'delivered to Ukraine and trained in the use of'.

Which is no use if delivered piecemeal, many of the techie stuff (counter artillery radar for instance) obviously is useless without the mobile artillery systems & considerable training.

I'm not pouring cold water, just saying that it's complex.
 
I think that Lithuania's attitude re Kalingrad demonstrates that when it comes to Russia, it and the likes of Estonia, Latvia and Poland are not going to tow any EU appeasing line. Throw into the mix the US and the UK and the EU appeasing element are going to have to be seen for the sake of their own political skins to be continuing to support Ukraine for as long as it wants to fight.

I appreciate that post is powered by hope, but FFS the fact that Russia must be stopped now seems so blindingly obvious that even the most abject euro surrender monkey must be able to see it...
 

Brooker

Old-Salt
There’s actually some logic behind that claim. ISTR watching/reading something somewhere that goes into this.

France’s price for allowing Germany to unify was that Germany support France in, and adopt the €. U.K. and US were supportive of German unification but no doubt with caveats which I forget/weren’t touched on. Russia allowed the unification of Germany of Germany allowed Russian troops to still be based there whilst Germany funded the the construction of new barracks in Russia to house those troops. (Nobody wants to withdraw their troops from Garrison duty and have no where for them to live.)

However, Germany apparently also struck a deal with Russia that former soviet bloc countries wouldn’t join NATO. Now, here in lies the problem. Due to the fact that the Russians don’t quite understand democracy, Russia never quite understood that Germany doesn’t control NATO, nor can Germany tell other countries what to do. Obviously l, this was before the introduction of the € and all of the mechanisms of controlling other country’s foreign policy by controlling their debt. (I.e Greece can be bitch slapped around and some might even argue has turned its back of democratic principals because Greeces debt burden is so big and controlled by other third parties, the Greek government can do what it’s told to do.)

So, from the Russian perspective, they let Germany do something and got nothing in return.

I suspect that this is why the EU is furiously pushing for majority voting on key issues such as defence, foreign policy and finance because then those troublesome countries like the Baltic states, Poland Slovakia and the Czech Republic can be brought to heel in order to put he squeeze on Ukraine to cede territory to Russia.

It’s very easy to look at what’s going on here and see it as a simple battle of hood versus evil and a straight slogging match between two warring sides. But in reality this isn’t WW2 where two completely competing ideological beliefs caught against each other with two other main economic players such as the U.K. and France did their own thing. (The U.K. saw both as wrong so stood it’s ground, France put up token resistance and decided to collobarate with the lesser of two evils and decided to re-write its history after the event when it realised it had acquiesced with the lesser of two evils, but the one that was on the losing side.

We seem to be going back to 19th and 20th century power struggles where France and Germany are viewing for control of the continent, neither like or trust Russia, but neither are strong enough economically, politically or militarily to take on Russia so they join forces under a new banner.

I suspect Russia may be seeing that a return to a divided Russia weakens Germany, makes France the dominant EU player and can use Frances historic ‘friendships’ with Russia to control the outcome.

And not the 1st time German Geopolitics has screwed things up in Europe in the last 50 years, NATO's biggest threat as it stands is German ideology, over energy and defence, what is frustrating is that a blind man can see this, but it's been allowed to happen because they are so damned rich, which in part is due to that really cheap gas they get.

Plus, Ignoring the strong links between some Germans & the Old Soviets was/is a huge mistake, leopards don't change their spots..

But we are at this point because we the west allowed it to happen, and have over the decades been giving Putty a nod & a wink that it's ok, because it wasn't convenient for us to do something about it.
 
What a load of tosh. The countries that are blagging didn't invest time, money and training for the past decade when it was actually needed.

I don’t think it’s enough. Let’s not pat ourselves on the back too hard. Whilst the UK’s contribution to Ukraine is long-standing and sizeable compared to some European peers, £2 billion in military aid is 0.1% of UK GDP and is absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of things. For context it is:

  • 4 days NHS spending based on 2019 numbers
  • 14% of the UK 2020 Foreign Aid budget
  • 5% of the UK Test and Trace budget
  • 62% of the spending on Ajax with zero vehicles delivered
  • 50% of the cost of the scrapped Nimrod programme
This aid is not enough to help Ukraine win the war. For context, the Poles are donating 3x more as a percentage of GDP to Ukraine, have delivered the heaviest of heavy weapons (tanks, planes, helicopters, towed and tracked artillery, MLRS etc). They are also actively upgrading their own armed forces in a big way to allow them to defend against Russia, all announced since Feb 24th:

 

Brooker

Old-Salt
I don’t think it’s enough. Let’s not pat ourselves on the back too hard. Whilst the UK’s contribution to Ukraine is long-standing and sizeable compared to some European peers, £2 billion in military aid is 0.1% of UK GDP and is absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of things. For context it is:

  • 4 days NHS spending based on 2019 numbers
  • 14% of the UK 2020 Foreign Aid budget
  • 5% of the UK Test and Trace budget
  • 62% of the spending on Ajax with zero vehicles delivered
  • 50% of the cost of the scrapped Nimrod programme
This aid is not enough to help Ukraine win the war. For context, the Poles are donating 3x more as a percentage of GDP to Ukraine, have delivered the heaviest of heavy weapons (tanks, planes, helicopters, towed and tracked artillery, MLRS etc). They are also actively upgrading their own armed forces in a big way to allow them to defend against Russia, all announced since Feb 24th:

Yeah I strongly suspect that Boris's commendable and vocal support for Ukraine has been designed to hide the fact we have been shit at giving meaningful financial help.

Germany is even counting the loans they gave to Ukr in 2014 as party of their support package for Ukr..

This is a country that had €1 trillion in the ECB pre covid
 

Brooker

Old-Salt
And not the 1st time German Geopolitics has screwed things up in Europe in the last 50 years, NATO's biggest threat as it stands is German ideology, over energy and defence, what is frustrating is that a blind man can see this, but it's been allowed to happen because they are so damned rich, which in part is due to that really cheap gas they get.

Plus, Ignoring the strong links between some Germans & the Old Soviets was/is a huge mistake, leopards don't change their spots..

But we are at this point because we the west allowed it to happen, and have over the decades been giving Putty a nod & a wink that it's ok, because it wasn't convenient for us to do something about it.

I rather take it as a badge of honour that XXLBelly marked my reply as dumb!
 

glad rag

Old-Salt
The US is moving to 6.8mm due to the change in contact distance and presumably to counter personal armour,
Have you actually read up on this? the "war" round runs to 80,000psi it knocks firers about and questions are already being asked about its suitability. It will be issued only to tier 1 troops everyone else stays with M4.
As they say, follow the money...
 
I guess we can argue it if we want this to spread into Europe, and then the inevitable really ******* serious financial & humanitarian problems that will come as a result.

Let's put this another way, if there's a massive fire that is in danger of spreading do you say we're not sending our fire trucks because there might be a fire elsewhere that needs putting out, or do you attempt to make sure the fire is out and doesn't spread? Not doing something is a False Economy, and in this case, one where there is an existential threat.
The discrepancy between artillery rounds isn't that bad but we do need to send more, Ukr Artillary makes up for numbers by accuracy, the reason some Ukrainian fields look like they're from The Somme, is, because Russian artillery isn't that accurate, so they are dropping 500 shells to do the job of 10.

Ukraine has a population of 45 million they can do the logistics but they would benefit from trucks hence my suggestion of 25% of what we have, because as we know it's not just about "tanks & guns and bombs" to coin a phrase from The Cranberries.

There's a sky report and the marine QRF is using a VW Van and debusing out of a side door; yeah 8 lads squeezed in, 4 with PKRs that that debus wasn't quick.

The long and the short of any argument that talks about saving equipment because we might need it later is storeman thinking (No offence lads) or put another way there is a particular way of thinking and the story is like this, accountants count the cost of doing something, chief execs/Leaders etc count the cost of NOT doing something, of course that's simplistic but I hope you get what I mean.

The cost of not doing more and importantly of just doing very small increments is huge not just on a human tragedy scale but on a how do families across Europe including the UK feed themselves, it is that serious.

So in covid parlance, we have our herd immunity which is roll over and say take it all Putin not our problem you just take what you want do your stuff and then watch him grind Ukraine down over months and then move to the Baltic states and watch us ignore article 5 and thus NATO fails OR we vaccinate all of Ukraine and provide everything they need! Meaning we don't test article 5, because you can guarantee Sholz will disrupt that, anyone looking for a quisling need look no further than Sholz.

Sadly there is no escaping this
Those are good arguments. With kit that is passed to Ukr, are we re-stocking? Are there large orders in for new N-LAW, Manpads, etc? Using your analogy about fires, there is one in Ukr but what if one breaks out in the Baltics? It is not too far fetched to suggest that.
 

Goatman

ADC
Book Reviewer
U.K. and US were supportive of German unification

Mrs Thatcher wasn’t. She had to be talked round (to an extent) by Bush Sr, and was still muttering that it was a bad idea on 3 October 1990… the FCO was in despair, particularly after she hinted to Gorbachev that most of western Europe agreed with her that reunification was at best rushed. We became more supportive of the idea after she’d resigned and after reunification as the more emollient approach of Douglas Hurd (which she’d ignored) was allowed to come into play.
 

Slime

LE
The West is cutting it's own throat. Putin is laughing. Wait until winter comes.

You raise an excellent point. :)
It is indeed going to be very interesting to see how Russian forces cope this coming winter.

Putin will still be laughing, but then he will still be sat in safety inside Russia, and won’t have been one of the extra 35,000-50,000 Russian troops likely to die (pro rata) by the end of winter.

Not only will many Russian military production lines have been closed for five to six months by the end of winter, but Russia would have defaulted on one or two more quarterly payments by then.

Yes, I‘m quite looking forwards to winter as it will put more strain on the already stretched Russian logistics train.

The fact Putin will still be laughing will only make things seem harder for a Russian soldier cold and hungry……..and being shelled or shot at in Ukraine.

You know, having a think about things, I’m probably looking forward to this coming winter even more than you are :)
 

BuggerAll

LE
Kit Reviewer

Wader 2

War Hero
I thought that the last time they Belarus pres tried to get involved their army basically mutinied?
Why I said POSE not actually do anything.
They just don't get the concept of "National Sovereignty" do they?
Yalta and spheres of influence suggest they think differently and of course did just that up to NATO and the IGB.

Regarding Russia's ace, General Winter, I hope we, that is NATO and friendly countries consider that too. The NATO problem is NATO doesn't implement procurement, this is a State issue. Ideally UKf need just one pattern of 'trousers, combat, camouflage, winter' and all the other accoutrements. Imagine getting each State to agree to just one common specification, then placing an order with each trying to grab as much of the contract value for its own country. Spring 24 or 25?
 
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