Russian Troop Movements Reported Near Ukraine

When Will Russia Invade Ukraine

  • Wed 16th Feb

    Votes: 19 6.7%
  • Before 22nd Feb

    Votes: 54 19.1%
  • By St David's Day (1 March)

    Votes: 90 31.9%
  • By St Georges Day (23 April)

    Votes: 21 7.4%
  • By August

    Votes: 9 3.2%
  • By Christmas

    Votes: 6 2.1%
  • Some time in 2023

    Votes: 15 5.3%
  • Before Hell Freezes Over

    Votes: 68 24.1%

  • Total voters
    282
It's a fairly standard arrangement in western democracies and a source of political stability and constitutional strength that the loss of an individual for any reason does not necessarily bring down an elected government. In the US for example, Kennedy to Johnson and Nixon to Ford.

By way of contrast, much as we would like to see Putin get his P45, no-one has the foggiest idea what would replace him and pretty much every option between peaceful transition and civil war is on the table.
And there's also the argument cited against killing HItler -- he was doing the enemy more harm alive than dead.
 

Goatman

ADC
Book Reviewer
Why is this relevant? The Russians are as likely to attack Poland, Sweden or Lithuania with Iskanders as I am to marry Emily Ratajkowski.
It is relevant in response to the previous poster's assertion that Kaliningrad is ' nothing to worry about'

I defer to Mod's judgement whether it is relevant to discussion of Ukraine.

And I will resist the temptation to post an image of the fragrant Emily ;-)
 
Last edited:

Slime

LE
Yes. Cyber warfare is b0ll0cks and a waste of money.

The only success russia managed was taking down some Ukrainian servers at the start that had been installed incorrectly.

An interesting observation, is that your informed professional opinion?

I am genuinely curious how you can know things that haven’t been released to the public.
 
Yes. Cyber warfare is b0ll0cks and a waste of money.

The only success russia managed was taking down some Ukrainian servers at the start that had been installed incorrectly.

Stuxnet showed it does it have it's purpose, it's not all about geeks banging away on keyboards like in Swordfish
 

kandak01

Old-Salt
You're right about the gas reserves in Germany. I watched a documentary recently in which the problem was discussed. Apparently, their tanks are only at 30% at the moment, with, as you state, not much likelihood of them being topped up before the cold weather moves in.

Whichever way you spin it, though, Germany's going to have to face a tough time in the very near future. In my opinion, that's why they've been so reluctant to step up to the plate and support Ukraine 100% in a sort of tentative appeasement strategy that's gone totally awry.

MsG
This is another reason why the west should be agreeing a strategic outcome (defeat of Russia), maximising support to Ukraine, and finishing this war with the smallest amount of consequence possible.

Half measures (or less from the French & Germans) are just prolonging the suffering of an increasing pool of people all around the world
 
That's about the size of it. Not much you can do about MANPAD apart from flares and chaff. Against radar controlled ADA or medium and long range SAM OTOH they should be countered by ECM, especially as most of it will be your own kit.

They even had an entire Badger EW Regiment at Poltava. What evidence have we seen that they have any offensive EW today?

Apart from some ASM activity by Backfires have they used any of their bombers to deliver FAB 500? Are they holding back the Backfires and Blackjack in case NATO becomes player?
Personally I believe they’re not holding anything back in particular. They’ve got significant equipment, training, maintenance and supply issues throughout the entire country.

I did suspect that Russia is gradually getting better at using what kit it has got. The on the job training in some areas is allowing them to get to the stage where they should have been at 4 months ago with normal run of the mill training, let alone pre deployment training.

This is why I think the Ukrainians are learning quite well. They’ve expanded there military massively but had quite good training to begin with. It’s alike a gun crew. You can train them all up in peace time, but there’s going to be a case of being able to throw some people into the job with no training as long as you’ve got enough people around who can train them as they’re doing the job.

It hasn’t helped The Russians that the Ukrainians haven’t done what they’re meant to do. They know Russians will mallet Radars from SAM systems when they’re emitting. So the ukranians turn them on for a bit, turn them off and move. To a new location.

There’s a video on YouTube but an ex f14 pilot called Ward Carrol who’s interviewing somebody from RUSI on yeh matter. ISTR the Ukrainians have lost a few mobile SAM systems but they’ve predominantly been around the front line and have been either ambushed or hit by artillery.

They also showed a lovely clip that yeh Kremlin had released of a Russian SEAD mission against the Ukrainians. It seemed to consist of a Russian pilot possibly flying out of Belarus launching an Anti Radar missile into Ukraine. Anti Radiation missiles are expensive and limited in stock. The Russians are so fearful of losing what limited number of available aircraft have that they launch them at extreme range giving Ukrainians plenty of time to shut down and move away. Plus, the Russians are even launching them with no targets locked on in the hope that’s somebody will turn their radars on and happen to be unlucky. Not a great tactic when said missiles can only search +/- 5 or 10 degrees.

What’s amazed me however is whatever technology gets introduced , as well as having positives to them. There’s negatives. Expensive warships don’t turn on radars or sonars as they can be located farther away than they can detect. So to all intents and proposes Ukraine is like WW1 and WW2. Ok, I understand that drones and satellites are a big improvement on a guy in a hot air balloon with a pair of binoculars, but the principal of the mark 1 eyeball comes back in play (albeit it with more modern binoculars)

It’s still coming down to hit the enemy when you can, where you can and relocate before they can hit you back.

I’d like to see more MLRS and HIMARS out there to start targeting expensive Russian kit. But I don’t think we can afford to have Russia ‘defeated.’ The Russians need to leave of their own accord whilst reducing the absolute if them to attack elsewhere.

There’s going to have to be a massive rethink after this. What equipment we have and in what numbers. This has taught me that a battery of MLRS with a large supply of ammunition, and outstanding ISTAR capability has the potential to overcome whatever a much larger force can do. However, no doubt, we’ll start to systems to take out MLRS rockets, small drones and artillery shells in flight being pushed as yeh next must have toy.
 
Stuxnet showed it does it have it's purpose, it's not all about geeks banging away on keyboards like in Swordfish
I agree about that. But Stuxnet could’ve been stopped by basic IT security.

I doubt we’ll start seeing aircraft carriers taken over. Cars with WIFI able to be controlled by third parties or aircraft being flown into mountain tops.

I was being somewhat Fickle with my original post mainly because I’ve seen it pushed that cyber will be the most important element on ten battlefield. And once again we’ve seen it’s good old fashioned infantry, armour, artillery and logistics. (We’ve even seen that air assets don’t need to play gay much of a part)

However, then again, any asset that can be used as a force multiplier is good. And if you have the capability for doing bad things to other people, you can also see your own weaknesses.
 

Wader 2

Old-Salt
Russian SEAD mission against the Ukrainians. It seemed to consist of a Russian pilot possibly flying out of Belarus launching an Anti Radar missile into Ukraine. Anti Radiation missiles are expensive and limited in stock. The Russians are so fearful of losing what limited number of available aircraft have that they launch them at extreme range giving Ukrainians plenty of time to shut down and move away. Plus, the Russians are even launching them with no targets locked on in the hope that’s somebody will turn their radars on and happen to be unlucky. Not a great tactic when said missiles can only search +/- 5 or 10 degrees.
As you obviously know, that is it how you use ARM. By all means trail your coat until they light up and then dick them, but more effective is their use as escorts.

Against a package you have the choice of being bombed or receiving ARM. One is a certainty and the other a chance.
 
Looks like the Ukes are about to get encircled here, I hope they've managed to pull most of their good kit and forces out

Screenshot_20220623-120030_LiveUAMap.jpg
 
Are there any serious discussions or moves afoot to give Ukraine NATO fighter aircraft? I recall that some time ago Liz Truss made a positive comment about this step and then read about some unusual levels of airforce training activity but then have heard nothing further. The US have 100's of F16's in storage and it seems to me that if the US is seriously running out of ordnance to sustain the Ukrainian army, then jets and their weapons would be a way forward. What do the experts think?

I guess logistics and maintenance (and maybe airfield length/suitability) would be the biggest problem

Alternatively could the west substantially update the weapons systems on these further 12 MIG 29'S that are coming?
Is it possible that Ukranian pilots and ground crew are currently undergoing (lengthy) conversion training? ISTR someone upthread saying this could take up to 6 months. Could we see a new generation of Ukrainian airforce armed with F16s in a few months time?
 

Slime

LE
Looks like the Ukes are about to get encircled here, I hope they've managed to pull most of their good kit and forces out

View attachment 672334

Looking at that map is a real and stark reminder at how the lack of combat aircraft is hampering Ukraine.
With ability to only target Russian forces at close range Ukrainian forces are just too easy to hit for Russian forces.
 
Well done the Ukrainian goats!
A Ukrainian goat has injured several Russian soldiers after triggering their own tripwire and setting off a series of grenades.

Ukraine's Chief Intelligence Directorate said the Kremlin forces were injured after they boobytrapped themselves in the village of Kinski Rozdory in Zaporizhzhia.

Putin's men had installed pinned grenades around the perimeter of a local hospital and placed tripwires as a 'circular defence'.
 

Latest Threads

Top