Russian Troop Movements Reported Near Ukraine

When Will Russia Invade Ukraine

  • Wed 16th Feb

    Votes: 19 6.7%
  • Before 22nd Feb

    Votes: 54 19.1%
  • By St David's Day (1 March)

    Votes: 90 31.9%
  • By St Georges Day (23 April)

    Votes: 21 7.4%
  • By August

    Votes: 9 3.2%
  • By Christmas

    Votes: 6 2.1%
  • Some time in 2023

    Votes: 15 5.3%
  • Before Hell Freezes Over

    Votes: 68 24.1%

  • Total voters
    282

Wader 2

Old-Salt
ISW report attributes Russian progress in Eastern areas to massive use of SAM systems which have prevented Ukrainian air and drone cover. In effect, the Russians have finally (four months late) achieved air superiority over an area they are fighting in.
Not air superiority. They have defensive air cover that denies UKrAir free movement over own forces. It does not give them free movement over UKr forces. For air superiority they need to be able to supress UKr SAM for a period.
 
It's a fairly standard arrangement in western democracies and a source of political stability and constitutional strength that the loss of an individual for any reason does not necessarily bring down an elected government. In the US for example, Kennedy to Johnson and Nixon to Ford.

By way of contrast, much as we would like to see Putin get his P45, no-one has the foggiest idea what would replace him and pretty much every option between peaceful transition and civil war is on the table.
The latter would be preferable. The russian federation breaks up into various small states and 'stans. With lots of dead orcs thrown in for good measure. What's not to like?
 
Not air superiority. They have defensive air cover that denies UKrAir free movement over own forces. It does not give them free movement over UKr forces. For air superiority they need to be able to supress UKr SAM for a period.
Snake island smoking again apparently:

 

FORMER_FYRDMAN

LE
Book Reviewer
The latter would be preferable. The russian federation breaks up into various small states and 'stans. With lots of dead orcs thrown in for good measure. What's not to like?

The fact that China would be the form horse to fill much of the resulting vacuum east of the Urals - unfortunately every silver lining has a cloud.
 

TractorStats

Old-Salt
Putin has been squeezing down Russian gas supply into Germany for the last week. The German Economy Minister has announced this morning that Germany will enter Phase 2 of its three-stage emergency gas plan today but a clause that would allow utilities to pass on soaring energy costs to customers will not be triggered yet.

In summary, this means German gas reserves in stock are already flat or falling and likely wont be able to restock fully before winter. This is now becoming a race between how quick the military offensive can defeat Russia in Ukraine and how long Western Europe can hold on before it runs out of gas as winter approaches.
 
ISW report attributes Russian progress in Eastern areas to massive use of SAM systems which have prevented Ukrainian air and drone cover. In effect, the Russians have finally (four months late) achieved air superiority over an area they are fighting in.
It also notes that the Russians are firing anti ship missiles in land bombardment, which suggests shortages of weapons.
I was under the impression that the Russians had always had localised air superiority over their own lines just as Ukraine has always had air superiors over their lines.

The question has always been, and still remains, why haven’t the Russians for air superiority over the Ukraines.

Hardly a strategic win for the Russians though. They’ve had to throw everything including the kitchen sink at a small area of land defended by a less capable adversary and are still struggling.

I can’t wait to see how many of the Russian SAM systems become targets for HIMARS and MLRS when they get to theatre though.
 

Wader 2

Old-Salt
I was under the impression that the Russians had always had localised air superiority over their own lines just as Ukraine has always had air superiors over their lines.

The question has always been, and still remains, why haven’t the Russians for air superiority over the Ukraines.
That's about the size of it. Not much you can do about MANPAD apart from flares and chaff. Against radar controlled ADA or medium and long range SAM OTOH they should be countered by ECM, especially as most of it will be your own kit.

They even had an entire Badger EW Regiment at Poltava. What evidence have we seen that they have any offensive EW today?

Apart from some ASM activity by Backfires have they used any of their bombers to deliver FAB 500? Are they holding back the Backfires and Blackjack in case NATO becomes player?
 

DaManBugs

On ROPS
On ROPs
Putin has been squeezing down Russian gas supply into Germany for the last week. The German Economy Minister has announced this morning that Germany will enter Phase 2 of its three-stage emergency gas plan today but a clause that would allow utilities to pass on soaring energy costs to customers will not be triggered yet.

In summary, this means German gas reserves in stock are already flat or falling and likely wont be able to restock fully before winter. This is now becoming a race between how quick the military offensive can defeat Russia in Ukraine and how long Western Europe can hold on before it runs out of gas as winter approaches.
You're right about the gas reserves in Germany. I watched a documentary recently in which the problem was discussed. Apparently, their tanks are only at 30% at the moment, with, as you state, not much likelihood of them being topped up before the cold weather moves in.

Far more serious is the fact that so much industry in Germany is dependent on gas deliveries. So it's not just the domestic home-heating situation that's causing headaches. The eastern part of the country is in a slightly better position because the majority of communities there are served by locally-sited combined electricity/heating facilities that were originally run on lignite (brown coal) and subsequently converted to gas. However, such plants can be, relatively, easily re-converted should push come to shove.

Whichever way you spin it, though, Germany's going to have to face a tough time in the very near future. In my opinion, that's why they've been so reluctant to step up to the plate and support Ukraine 100% in a sort of tentative appeasement strategy that's gone totally awry.

MsG
 

TractorStats

Old-Salt
You're right about the gas reserves in Germany. I watched a documentary recently in which the problem was discussed. Apparently, their tanks are only at 30% at the moment, with, as you state, not much likelihood of them being topped up before the cold weather moves in.

Far more serious is the fact that so much industry in Germany is dependent on gas deliveries. So it's not just the domestic home-heating situation that's causing headaches. The eastern part of the country is in a slightly better position because the majority of communities there are served by locally-sited combined electricity/heating facilities that were originally run on lignite (brown coal) and subsequently converted to gas. However, such plants can be, relatively, easily re-converted should push come to shove.

Whichever way you spin it, though, Germany's going to have to face a tough time in the very near future. In my opinion, that's why they've been so reluctant to step up to the plate and support Ukraine 100% in a sort of tentative appeasement strategy that's gone totally awry.

MsG
Forgot to mention that Italy an Greece Govt ministers were also out yesterday calling for price caps on natural gas prices. Not sure how that will work. They either pay the world price of LNG plus transport costs or they wont get any gas.
 
Try a 5 hour road move in a 43 with only the Sh1tty crew helmet and head set - 1990 style , you’ll know the meaning of slightly deaf and uncomfortable that’s for sure, once those cooling fans kick in and the commanders mic ( on live IC) picks up the noise, you as a driver you are chuffed in the comfort department.
We never got issued the ANR headsets so it was murder for any long moves at high revs.
My hearing is shot as a result of spending 7 years on the 43‘s :-(
22 years on armour & tours on foot with smaller bangs and CAS dropping large bangs (88-2010) and all our hearing is shot.
 

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