Seems wrong to uptick you but I agree. The question is whether Russia is pouring massive firepower into a concentrated area and Ukraine are slowly withdrawing making Russia pay for every inch of ground with massive losses which the Ukrainians will then retake once Russia is exhausted.
If Russia takes Donbass I think it will find it very hard to hold it against a determinedly hostile population and capable army if the West keeps suppling weapons. The only question is whether the EU/UN will effectively stab Ukraine in the back in return for food and energy. I think the East European NATO members will stand firm but unsure about the rest.
Yeah, I have to agree to all you have written to, I hope to god the Russians suffer hell but I worry on the "stab in the back" but yes, the Baltic nations will stand firm. Sure Poland is itching to get under way