Russian Troop Movements Reported Near Ukraine

When Will Russia Invade Ukraine

  • Wed 16th Feb

    Votes: 20 7.0%
  • Before 22nd Feb

    Votes: 54 19.0%
  • By St David's Day (1 March)

    Votes: 90 31.7%
  • By St Georges Day (23 April)

    Votes: 21 7.4%
  • By August

    Votes: 9 3.2%
  • By Christmas

    Votes: 6 2.1%
  • Some time in 2023

    Votes: 16 5.6%
  • Before Hell Freezes Over

    Votes: 68 23.9%

  • Total voters
    284
It's not quite as simple or straightforward as that. I am not in a position to be privy to the official Polish Government approach to this war but the following is my take on events and how I understand them.

I watched and listened (in the original) to the Polish President's half-hour address to the Ukrainian Parliament delivered in person last Sunday. The emotional intensity was enormous. It gained rapturous applause. He underlined the fact that Poland had fervently supported the adoption of a NATO accession plan for Ukraine (and Georgia) in 2008 and had that happened it would be unlikely that the current war would be taking place.

Poland understood far earlier than other nations the nature of Moscow's relations with the world. It knows that the Kremlin is undertaking continuous conflict with states that it considers inimical to its interests (essentially all those that it does not control and that are seen to have the intention and capability of posing a threat). This conflict tends to be covert and non-kinetic most of the time especially when the adversary could inflict serious damage in return, but becomes overt and kinetic when the adversary is judged weak and incapable of strong resistance. Essential bully-boy tactics.

Poland has been at the receiving end of Moscow's antipathy since the rise of Muscovy itself and has suffered intensely because of it. However one cannot say that the Poles hate the Russians. The way my maternal grandfather explained it to me is that he felt sorry for the Russian peoples as they have always been the primary victims of the Muscovite State.

Poland has no wish to "be in Moscow". It was there for a few years in the past (1610-1612) and that did not work out very well. Rather it would like to see the Russian peoples fully emancipated in a free democratic state (or states) that have no design or desire for territorial expansion or subjugation of other peoples, but are fully integrated into peaceful political frameworks with their European neighbours. Thus Poland supports the creation of a free independent Ukraine, Belarus and Russia (or Russias depending how the Russian peoples would wish to organise themselves).

To this end Poland is championing Ukraine in its fight against Muscovite oppression and it is also fully supporting the Belarusian opposition in the same fight. Poland has the benefit of being in both NATO and the EU and it is immensely strengthened by its membership of both organisations. But it has to coordinate its foreign policy actions in line with both those organisations as well. So long as NATO is not going to actively commit its military forces to the defence of Ukraine, neither will Poland.

But the Poles are quite sensitive to the international political whisper campaign that "something needs to be done" and that the easy option (as per Kissinger's comments) would be to sacrifice principle on the altar of practicality and reward Moscow for its aggression.

The Poles have been there before. They were the "first to fight" in 1939, resisting both Berlin's and Moscow's partition of their country. They fought for their liberty throughout the war and contributed significantly to the Allied cause. Only to have their liberty sacrificed on the altar of convenience at Yalta in 1945. They had demanded to have a say in their future: "Nothing about us, without us!" And yet were callously pushed aside to accommodate the practicality of "business as usual" with Moscow.

Thus during the Polish President's speech, some of the greatest applause from the Ukrainian parliamentarians came when he proclaimed that after the Kremlin's bestial aggression against Ukraine the world cannot return to a state of "business as usual" with Moscow and that no political decision can be taken about Ukraine's future without Ukraine's accord. "Nothing about you, without you!"

Very interesting thank you.

Sadly most do not grasp the 'Muskovy Mindset' concept and certainly not how it operates at the practical level. It seems the Polish are more advanced than most in this respect.

Muskovy doesn't suddenly disappear with Polish tanks outside the Kremlin walls. Taking the Kremlin doesn't remove the problem of Muskovy, nor does removing Putin.

Muskovy can only be removed by the Russian masses themselves because as your definition determines, it's a mindset. And a mindset can only be erradicated when the masses no longer buy into it. In that sense, it's like 'democracy'.
 
Someone's been a naughty boy. Missed this
 
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An article from FP providing an interesting exposé of life in Ukraine under Russian rule (behind a paywall, but the usual archive pages can be used for access):

Relevant excerpt:
Few people can better articulate the experience of life under Russian occupation than Stanislav Aseyev, whose recently released book, In Isolation: Dispatches from Occupied Donbas—translated from Ukrainian by Lidia Wolanskyj—gives a first-person account of the shelling, propaganda, and internal power struggles of Donetsk in the early days of the war that began there in 2014. The brutality and arbitrariness of rule in Russian-occupied Donbas that Aseyev depicts hint at what would await Ukraine in the event of a Russian-imposed regime, underscoring why the stakes of the war today could not possibly be higher.
 
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Have they got any Sturmoviks they can drag out?
 
The tacked-together thing in the photo is just the pallet containing the actual casket.
Either way . . . it's not a good look from the standpoint of any bereaved mother.

Even a mother accustomed to being treated like a serf, by a bully she's required to admire unconditionally, on pain of imprisonment without a fair trial or possibly death by poison . . . .
 
Snigger
 
Very interesting thank you.

Sadly most do not grasp the 'Muskovy Mindset' concept and certainly not how it operates at the practical level. It seems the Polish are more advanced than most in this respect.

Muskovy doesn't suddenly disappear with Polish tanks outside the Kremlin walls. Taking the Kremlin doesn't remove the problem of Muskovy, nor does removing Putin.

Muskovy can only be removed by the Russian masses themselves because as your definition determines, it's a mindset. And a mindset can only be erradicated when the masses no longer buy into it. In that sense, it's like 'democracy'.
I would just add to the penultimate sentence in your final paragraph:
".... and the leadership can no longer enforce it."
 
It's not quite as simple or straightforward as that. I am not in a position to be privy to the official Polish Government approach to this war but the following is my take on events and how I understand them.

I watched and listened (in the original) to the Polish President's half-hour address to the Ukrainian Parliament delivered in person last Sunday. The emotional intensity was enormous. It gained rapturous applause. He underlined the fact that Poland had fervently supported the adoption of a NATO accession plan for Ukraine (and Georgia) in 2008 and had that happened it would be unlikely that the current war would be taking place.

Poland understood far earlier than other nations the nature of Moscow's relations with the world. It knows that the Kremlin is undertaking continuous conflict with states that it considers inimical to its interests (essentially all those that it does not control and that are seen to have the intention and capability of posing a threat). This conflict tends to be covert and non-kinetic most of the time especially when the adversary could inflict serious damage in return, but becomes overt and kinetic when the adversary is judged weak and incapable of strong resistance. Essential bully-boy tactics.

Poland has been at the receiving end of Moscow's antipathy since the rise of Muscovy itself and has suffered intensely because of it. However one cannot say that the Poles hate the Russians. The way my maternal grandfather explained it to me is that he felt sorry for the Russian peoples as they have always been the primary victims of the Muscovite State.

Poland has no wish to "be in Moscow". It was there for a few years in the past (1610-1612) and that did not work out very well. Rather it would like to see the Russian peoples fully emancipated in a free democratic state (or states) that have no design or desire for territorial expansion or subjugation of other peoples, but are fully integrated into peaceful political frameworks with their European neighbours. Thus Poland supports the creation of a free independent Ukraine, Belarus and Russia (or Russias depending how the Russian peoples would wish to organise themselves).

To this end Poland is championing Ukraine in its fight against Muscovite oppression and it is also fully supporting the Belarusian opposition in the same fight. Poland has the benefit of being in both NATO and the EU and it is immensely strengthened by its membership of both organisations. But it has to coordinate its foreign policy actions in line with both those organisations as well. So long as NATO is not going to actively commit its military forces to the defence of Ukraine, neither will Poland.

But the Poles are quite sensitive to the international political whisper campaign that "something needs to be done" and that the easy option (as per Kissinger's comments) would be to sacrifice principle on the altar of practicality and reward Moscow for its aggression.

The Poles have been there before. They were the "first to fight" in 1939, resisting both Berlin's and Moscow's partition of their country. They fought for their liberty throughout the war and contributed significantly to the Allied cause. Only to have their liberty sacrificed on the altar of convenience at Yalta in 1945. They had demanded to have a say in their future: "Nothing about us, without us!" And yet were callously pushed aside to accommodate the practicality of "business as usual" with Moscow.

Thus during the Polish President's speech, some of the greatest applause from the Ukrainian parliamentarians came when he proclaimed that after the Kremlin's bestial aggression against Ukraine the world cannot return to a state of "business as usual" with Moscow and that no political decision can be taken about Ukraine's future without Ukraine's accord. "Nothing about you, without you!"
really fascinating, thank you.
 
@Condottiere, Might like this podcast


But this one covers what your saying about the Muscovy mindset from the eye's of Lithunina


 


At this rate the Russkies will still be embroiled in this quagmire by Christmas, when we can turn that list into a version of 12 Days of Christmas, albeit the list has 14 items.

A quick check over and singing it in my head and it works. Give it a go with projected December numbers as you see fit, I think you will be pleasantly surprised. Could even make a Christmas single and hit the number one spot.
 

kandak01

Old-Salt
Hence pop up. Use the climb to bleed off speed and get the paras out soonest. Full taps and GTFO of dodge.

I think it was 1Bn in SA a few years ago managed a full Herc load in around 14 seconds of absolute shit stained chaos out the side doors on a training hop. I suspect they'd be even more motivated live.
I had a whole stick of US paras in Bondsteel hospital after one of their show drops went wrong, too fast, too low, = lots of broken blokes.
And they weren't even being shot at then.....
 

Dwarf

LE
Book Reviewer
Looking at the crap around the trench system I‘m thinking that it’s a Ukrainian attack? I might be wrong but Russian field craft is not up to the norm.
Staged for propaganda? Using Rus position?
 
Seen this in the funnies thread but how does Russia now get to Kaliningrad as looking at the map it's land locked now so goods cant get in/out Im assuming that at somepoint carriers need to fly over sovereign airspace and now banned so is it supply from sea only?
1653428462389.png
 
This will be a much longer affair that any might have anticipated.

The situation in the Donbas is that the Russians are now holding ground, even making many small gains. Military supplies to Ukraine are coming in...but then have to be absorbed trained on and deployed far from where they are coming in.

The global shortage of wheat will become a major issue.

The sanctions have had an immediate effect however Russia was prepared and has done better than expected in maintaining the position of the Rouble through massive state intervention which hoovered up major amounts of foreign currency from Russian companies.

There has been a huge drop in foreign imports...requiring less foreign currency. Meanwhile the massive revenues Russia continues to get for its oil and gas from Western European companies continues to fund its war effort.

Europe has got to end its dependence upon Russian energy which Russia deliberately fostered... to use as a weapon as and when needed.

The trade sanctions for the vital industrial supplies and technology/ that Russia needs for production is an inexorable but slow process. It will force Russia to a situation where it can no longer fund the war...but that will take time.

The Russian offensive will slow as they continue to haemorrhage men and material. Can the Ukrainians get enough men and equipment to have a reasonable counter offensive when they have to pause?

So many variables, it is hard to predict how this will go.
 
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