Russian Troop Movements Reported Near Ukraine

When Will Russia Invade Ukraine

  • Wed 16th Feb

    Votes: 19 6.7%
  • Before 22nd Feb

    Votes: 54 19.1%
  • By St David's Day (1 March)

    Votes: 90 31.9%
  • By St Georges Day (23 April)

    Votes: 21 7.4%
  • By August

    Votes: 9 3.2%
  • By Christmas

    Votes: 6 2.1%
  • Some time in 2023

    Votes: 15 5.3%
  • Before Hell Freezes Over

    Votes: 68 24.1%

  • Total voters
    282
I have read various things on the internet alleging he is 'corrupt' and 'has millions stashed away outside Ukraine' and that 'he is just the puppet of powerful people who got him into power' but I have to say if any of that were true why wasn't he on the first private jet out of there? He was offered the chance and he had good reason to fear for his life as well as his wife and children. The bloke didn't do any of that and he must be under terrible strain the whole time but he is showing himself to be an inspiration to everyone. Churchill had many personal flaws and was utterly ruthless with it but held the nation together and defeated a terrifying enemy by sheer force of will. Like him, I think Zelensky will deserve his place in history.

That is just Soviet propaganda.

It comes from the Soviets thinking that nobody could run a country without plundering it - "we do, therefore he must".

It is easy for Soviet citizens to swallow because they know that is how it is done in Soviet Russia.

It has been rebutted many times over by reliable sources.
 
But can Ukraine afford to just give up the East, the Donbas, to try to stop the Novorossiya objective that Richard Spencer believes to be the ultimate prize for the Kremlin? Is Richard Spencer a better strategist than all the talking heads in Kyiv?
Reporters can sometimes identify strongly with those they're making programs or writing articles about, the best do anyway, empathy can get you close and get access to people/places you wouldn't normally see .

Which is bound to colour your reports.
 
I have read various things on the internet alleging he is 'corrupt' and 'has millions stashed away outside Ukraine' and that 'he is just the puppet of powerful people who got him into power' but I have to say if any of that were true why wasn't he on the first private jet out of there? He was offered the chance and he had good reason to fear for his life as well as his wife and children. The bloke didn't do any of that and he must be under terrible strain the whole time but he is showing himself to be an inspiration to everyone. Churchill had many personal flaws and was utterly ruthless with it but held the nation together and defeated a terrifying enemy by sheer force of will. Like him, I think Zelensky will deserve his place in history.
He certainly doesn't need me to defend him but time to air this again I think
 

longhair

Old-Salt
Are you arguing against the terminology being used or discussing the 'true' intent of Russia's advances on Kyiv?
I can see that a casual reading could lead to mis-interpretation (similarly with the comparison to the Queen Sacrifice I made that I also need to clarify), so, to avoid further confusion, it's the TERMINOLOGY.

The "coup de main" phrase is often used, and it certainly has changed over the centuries with the changed availability of and capabilities of matériel, but lacking "surprise and simultaneous execution of supporting operations to achieve success" (Septic definition), it's hard to see that the advance on Kiev could be regarded as such.
 
That post makes as much sense as 1+1=5.

Mr Zelensky is the elected Head of State of Ukraine. Both he and his nation are being supported by both NATO and the EU.

BTW "The" before "Ukraine" is superfluous. It's a term that the Rus use to indicate that Ukraine belongs to them.
NATO isn’t supporting him. I see no NATO mission in the Ukraine.

I see several individual states who happen to be in NATO providing support.
 

longhair

Old-Salt
The only other poster who believes that Kyiv was a feint is Emcon….
Ouch! I say, that's a bit below the belt!

For clarity - I don't think that the attack on Kiev was a "feint"

As I understand it a " feint" is a military deception; conveniently described in the doctrine as:

“an offensive action involving contact with the adversary conducted for the purpose of deceiving the adversary as to the location and/or time of the actual main offensive action.”

(The other deceptions being demonstrations, ruses, and displays.)

I don't think that the Kiev action was such. It was a placement that could not be ignored, had to be answered, but there were many on this thread who correctly identified the South coast, and the Donbas, as crucial areas to the "special operation". If the arrse analysts could see that, then I'm sure others could too!

Not a deception, but something that has cost the Ukr tempo, has exposed their shortcomings, has concentrated support from neighbours, and may well be shown to be a failed "Queen Sacrifice".
 
Reporters can sometimes identify strongly with those they're making programs or writing articles about, the best do anyway, empathy can get you close and get access to people/places you wouldn't normally see .

Which is bound to colour your reports.

Indeed.

But how many readers will actually see that and factor it into their understanding of the realities on the ground.

This is what Jeremy Bowen had to say yesterday and written up today on the website.

What we’re hearing from Ukrainian troops fighting in the Donbas region is that the Russians have moved forward. In fact, official communiques have said the same thing. It’s a matter of miles.
It’s not like there’s been a major breakthrough and Russian troops are pouring through.
But I think the Ukrainian defences are creaking.
They haven’t broken, but they’ve had to retreat. They’ve blown up bridges to try and slow down the Russian advance.
Luhansk, which is the north-eastern part of the Donbas region, is the area they are really prioritising.
And this morning what we heard from people there on the military side was that the Russians were doing more airstrikes, more shelling, and were really ramping up the firepower to break those Ukrainian defences.
Yesterday, the Russian defence minister said Luhansk would soon be 100 percent in their hands.

Zelensky has had a prerecorded interview shown on TV today. Some interesting points come out of it.

Ukraine currently has 700.000 in the army (presumably the total number armed defenders rather than just the army itself) after starting with 250.000.

He also touches on some of the items in the Italian proposition we discussed yesterday.
 
The latest ISW report has one thing to say about Russian advances in the Donbas, even after receiving reinforcements from the Kharkhiv front.
"Marginal".
 
I can see that a casual reading could lead to mis-interpretation (similarly with the comparison to the Queen Sacrifice I made that I also need to clarify), so, to avoid further confusion, it's the TERMINOLOGY.

The "coup de main" phrase is often used, and it certainly has changed over the centuries with the changed availability of and capabilities of matériel, but lacking "surprise and simultaneous execution of supporting operations to achieve success" (Septic definition), it's hard to see that the advance on Kiev could be regarded as such.

Indeed, you were arguing the terminology in a discussion upon motive. It seemed like a deliberate diversion away from the topic: let's ignore the wood and argue over what descriptor to apply to this particular tree.

What was the motive of the Russian advance on Kyiv?

Was it to deliver an objective in its own right or was it an effort to divert attention away from another objective elsewhere?

The latter seems to be your opinion as evidenced in a subsequent post.

I go along with Graculus that the advance on Kyiv was to deliver an objective in itself not just as a support act for another. Moreover, I'd go as far as to say the advance on Kyiv was to deliver their primary objective.
 

longhair

Old-Salt
What was the motive of the Russian advance on Kyiv?
To place substantial forces and matériel in such a position that they cannot be ignored. If ignored then they can be used when convenient.
Was it to deliver an objective in its own right or was it an effort to divert attention away from another objective elsewhere?

The latter seems to be your opinion as evidenced in a subsequent post.
Then the subsequent post has also been misunderstood. NOT a deception, not a diversion, not something done quickly, or unexpectedly. So not a feint or other major deception, or a coup de main.

Possibly a deception in that it could be construed as a "display".

(4) Displays. Displays are the simulation, disguising. and/or portrayal of
friendly objects, units, or capabilities in the projection of the MILDEC story. Such
capabilities may not exist, but are made to appear so (simulations)


That would certainly tie in with the use of untried recruits, the expectation that it was an "exercise", and the lack of logistical support.

"A capability that did not exist, but was made to appear so."
 
Ouch! I say, that's a bit below the belt!

For clarity - I don't think that the attack on Kiev was a "feint"

As I understand it a " feint" is a military deception; conveniently described in the doctrine as:

“an offensive action involving contact with the adversary conducted for the purpose of deceiving the adversary as to the location and/or time of the actual main offensive action.”

(The other deceptions being demonstrations, ruses, and displays.)

I don't think that the Kiev action was such. It was a placement that could not be ignored, had to be answered, but there were many on this thread who correctly identified the South coast, and the Donbas, as crucial areas to the "special operation". If the arrse analysts could see that, then I'm sure others could too!

Not a deception, but something that has cost the Ukr tempo, has exposed their shortcomings, has concentrated support from neighbours, and may well be shown to be a failed "Queen Sacrifice".
Not really, making up convoluted reasons to try to explain military incompetence is very much an Emcon trademark.

Russia tried to launch a multi-pronged attack. Kiev was clearly one of the objectives. You don’t send in your crack airborne troops for something that’s not a main effort. A ‘display’ doesn’t lose you most of your available ‘elite’ airborne forces. They didn’t take Kyiv, so they withdrew.

It’s that simple.
 
Last edited:

DaManBugs

On ROPS
On ROPs
Not really, making up convoluted reasons to try to explain military incompetence is very much an Emcon trademark.

Russia tried to launch a multi-pronged attack. Kiev was clearly one of the objectives. You don’t send in your crack airborne troops for something that’s not a main effort. A ‘display’ doesn’t lose you most of your available ‘elite’ airborne forces. They didn’t take Kyiv, so they withdrew.

It’s that simple.
That's my take too. I also believe that Kyiv was actually the main effort and the attacks in the Donbas were the diversion, just to keep the Ukrainian troops occupied so that they wouldn't re-group and reinforce those already defending Kyiv. Their primary intention, in my opinion, was to decapitate the Ukrainian authorities in a "lightning strike" and thus bring the country under their control.

MsG
 

Dreamseller

War Hero
That's my take too. I also believe that Kyiv was actually the main effort and the attacks in the Donbas were the diversion, just to keep the Ukrainian troops occupied so that they wouldn't re-group and reinforce those already defending Kyiv. Their primary intention, in my opinion, was to decapitate the Ukrainian authorities in a "lightning strike" and thus bring the country under their control.

MsG
An 8 year diversion doesn't sound that probable
 
Out of interest, has anybody mentioned the Russian submarine in the Mediterranean that tried to shoot down Israeli jets?


Pooh-stain must be totally, mentally defective. “Hmmm, I’m not doing too well in Ukraine. I know I’ll have a pop at another particularly well experienced militarily aligned nation state instead. That should go well”.

The new Israeli hobby will be Orc hunting.
 

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