Russian Troop Movements Reported Near Ukraine

When Will Russia Invade Ukraine

  • Wed 16th Feb

    Votes: 18 6.5%
  • Before 22nd Feb

    Votes: 53 19.0%
  • By St David's Day (1 March)

    Votes: 90 32.3%
  • By St Georges Day (23 April)

    Votes: 21 7.5%
  • By August

    Votes: 9 3.2%
  • By Christmas

    Votes: 6 2.2%
  • Some time in 2023

    Votes: 15 5.4%
  • Before Hell Freezes Over

    Votes: 67 24.0%

  • Total voters
    279
Your response to that specific paragraph, implies that Putin considers The WEST/EU/NATO, "expect, to interfere with the internal economies, politics, societies, and defence" of/within, Russia ?!
I would say they already have, it being the entire point of the Cold War and several times thereafter. The current sanctions are certainly economic interference designed to change Russian politics, too.

We also make a lot of noise out of interfering in the internal economies, politics, societies and defence of other nations on a great many occasions on the basis that we believe it the right thing to do, so why not Russia too?

That's the trouble with mistaking power for virtue and 'can' for 'should' - other people can do it too.
 
"as long as Ukraine remains hostile to Russia" . . . did Ukraine threaten to invade Russia? I missed that !!

No it did not, but in Moscow's eyes, as Condo notes, its very existence and especially the unfinished business of the Donbas and Crimea, constitute a threat as long as Ukraine refuses to give up on them....
 

Goatman

ADC
Book Reviewer
Moscow will always consider an independent sovereign Ukraine as inherently hostile.
...and inherently ( as La Putain self-evidently thinks ) part of Greater Russia.

Much as you and I regard the 70 year period of the Sovietschina as a mere blip in the long rolling ride of Russian history, Putin thinks of the former SSR's such as Ukraine, Belarus, Latvia,Lithuania and Estonia in the same light.

That is, what Arthur Ransome would have referred to as 'White Russia ' : like most of his Leningrader fat cat circle, La Putain regards his fellow former soviet bredren from the Stans/Georgia/Armenia/the Caucasus as 'Black Russians'*





* not to be confused with comrades from former Soviet client states such as Cuba/Mozambique/Angola/Italy etc etc
 
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I agree that invasion will be difficult and costly (unless it is made easier in Eastern Ukraine by there being somewhat divided loyalties among the population).
I'm less sure, fwiw, about the idea of Fr/German guardianship over Ukraine. Despite Fr/Germany being less confrontational to Russia, the Western model of civic life would still prevail in Ukraine. Security concerns aside, Putin is saying (I guess) 'I can't have a large, slavic nation with much in common with Russia, being a modern Western state, and my neighbour'. He'd want Fr/Germany to retard Ukrainian progress towards Westernisation, which likely can't be done because the people would drive that move, not the government.
Ukraine is a cultural / societal risk to Russia.
With that said, the risks for Russia are huge. Who's in control once the first shot is fired?
I wonder whether Putin is hoping that a Russian version of 'shock and awe' - a short, deep penetration into Ukraine - can bring Ukraine to the negotiating table very quickly, and allow Russia to impose terms?
How deep is that western model, in terms of the Ukraine ?
At the moment, my take on the Ukrainian Government is its a basket-case of different and competing visions all held together by a promise of EU and NATO membership.... IF/when that dream unravels, you have a recipe for the return to political violence and probably what the new shock army is waiting for, is the moment when the Ukrainian Army itself which will be the heart of any Hawkish movement, gets involved in the political chaos.
 
I would say they already have, it being the entire point of the Cold War and several times thereafter. The current sanctions are certainly economic interference designed to change Russian politics, too.
The Cold War, was a reaction to the intransigence of the USSR after WW2.

"The current sanctions" are again, a reaction to Russia's misbehaviour outside of its own borders.

Both examples were reactions to USSR/Russia's behaviour - which was/is their responsibility.
We also make a lot of noise out of interfering in the internal economies, politics, societies and defence of other nations on a great many occasions on the basis that we believe it the right thing to do, so why not Russia too?
I won't ask for examples as it would only be a distraction, from the topic in hand - Russia.
That's the trouble with mistaking power for virtue and 'can' for 'should' - other people can do it too.
Eh?!
 
The Cold War, was a reaction to the intransigence of the USSR after WW2.

"The current sanctions" are again, a reaction to Russia's misbehaviour outside of its own borders.

Both examples were reactions to USSR/Russia's behaviour - which was/is their responsibility.

I won't ask for examples as it would only be a distraction, from the topic in hand - Russia.

Eh?!
Our cat dad is trying to justify Russian aggression, which is his prerogative.
 
How deep is that western model, in terms of the Ukraine ?
At the moment, my take on the Ukrainian Government is its a basket-case of different and competing visions all held together by a promise of EU and NATO membership.... IF/when that dream unravels, you have a recipe for the return to political violence and probably what the new shock army is waiting for, is the moment when the Ukrainian Army itself which will be the heart of any Hawkish movement, gets involved in the political chaos.
This is a bit of a glib answer, so apologies, but whatever the state of Ukraine, Russia seems to feel threatened. If it was a basket case, would Russia be as concerned?
 
This is a bit of a glib answer, so apologies, but whatever the state of Ukraine, Russia seems to feel threatened. If it was a basket case, would Russia be as concerned?
If it was a basket case, Vlad would have declared it an SSFR by now.
 

Goatman

ADC
Book Reviewer
The Cold War, was a reaction to the intransigence of the USSR after WW2.
Wonderful. How does that mean the Russians had to like it or put up with it without doing something in return?.


"The current sanctions" are again, a reaction to Russia's misbehaviour outside of its own borders.
Wonderful, etc.


I won't ask for examples as it would only be a distraction, from the topic in hand - Russia.
We can't after all have any awkward examination of whether 'This is WRONG' really means 'We're taking the huff that someone else is doing it', can we?

You aren't entirely ignorant of post WW2 history, so I'll presume you're equating your personal preference with some objectively defined code such as the UN Charter.


You've mentioned yourself elsewhere the premature recognition of Croatia and the insistence on maintaining BiH intact are attributable to external players, the latter including the UK. Are those themselves not attacks on the economies, politics, etc. of the subordinated peoples?

They were things we could do, but probably shouldn't have.
 
Our cat dad is trying to justify Russian aggression, which is his prerogative.
I'm pointing out - successfully, if the amount of ear-blocking and the crescendo of lalalas is any measure - that they're exercising the same prerogative we have on many occasions.

That we think we're the ones who're in the right doesn't mean we're the only ones who do.
 

Jacl

LE
Russia is in Europe. However it refuses to abide by European standards, but wants to impose its own. Moscow needs to be in control. The Kremlin psychologically cannot allow the country it controls to be part of something as a equal member. It has to be able to control the organisation. The "Muscovite Mindset".
La Famiglia, and il Capo has sole control.
 
I'm pointing out - successfully, if the amount of ear-blocking and the crescendo of lalalas is any measure - that they're exercising the same prerogative we have on many occasions.

That we think we're the ones who're in the right doesn't mean we're the only ones who do.
Everybody thinks they are right, we get that.
The Ivan’s think they are right to add their former territory back to the empire.

The US thinks it’s right to oppose our number 2 nemesis, and keep them in check before they cross a line and and hurt our interests.

Which is why in this case diplomacy is a waste.
The only thing the Russians need is enough rope to hang themselves.
 

Oyibo

LE
I agree that invasion will be difficult and costly (unless it is made easier in Eastern Ukraine by there being somewhat divided loyalties among the population).
I'm less sure, fwiw, about the idea of Fr/German guardianship over Ukraine. Despite Fr/Germany being less confrontational to Russia, the Western model of civic life would still prevail in Ukraine. Security concerns aside, Putin is saying (I guess) 'I can't have a large, slavic nation with much in common with Russia, being a modern Western state, and my neighbour'. He'd want Fr/Germany to retard Ukrainian progress towards Westernisation, which likely can't be done because the people would drive that move, not the government.
Ukraine is a cultural / societal risk to Russia.
With that said, the risks for Russia are huge. Who's in control once the first shot is fired?
I wonder whether Putin is hoping that a Russian version of 'shock and awe' - a short, deep penetration into Ukraine - can bring Ukraine to the negotiating table very quickly, and allow Russia to impose terms?

I'd add to that the fact that Macron is in an election year and seems to be doing everything possible to be re-elected, and subsequently appointed Emperor of Europe.

Macron and Putin can both achieve their aims: Putin can say at the round of talks preceding the French elections that France has shown that is the leader of diplomacy in the Western world and that military action in Ukraine has been avoided. Putin splits the EU and NATO, and of course relations between Western countries. Macron gets re-elected with a slave whispering in his ear "Remember you are not a god".

Win for Putin, win for Macron. Loss for Western relations.
 
I would say they already have, it being the entire point of the Cold War and several times thereafter. The current sanctions are certainly economic interference designed to change Russian politics, too.

We also make a lot of noise out of interfering in the internal economies, politics, societies and defence of other nations on a great many occasions on the basis that we believe it the right thing to do, so why not Russia too?

That's the trouble with mistaking power for virtue and 'can' for 'should' - other people can do it too.

I think you should be on the panel for Radio 4's The Moral Maze.
 
Which is why in this case diplomacy is a waste.
The only thing the Russians need is enough rope to hang themselves.
They could always describe themselves as a gorilla. That's bound to impress.
 
Everybody thinks they are right, we get that.
The Ivan’s think they are right to add their former territory back to the empire.

The US thinks it’s right to oppose our number 2 nemesis, and keep them in check before they cross a line and and hurt our interests.

Which is why in this case diplomacy is a waste.
The only thing the Russians need is enough rope to hang themselves.

Not sure the Ivan's a la Putin and coterie think they're doing is right, it's what they think they need to do to keep themselves in power.
 
I think you should be on the panel for Radio 4's The Moral Maze.
If only 'we want to and we can' was the same as 'we're right to.' Think of the effort it would save.
 

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