Russian Troop Movements Reported Near Ukraine

When Will Russia Invade Ukraine

  • Wed 16th Feb

    Votes: 18 6.5%
  • Before 22nd Feb

    Votes: 53 19.0%
  • By St David's Day (1 March)

    Votes: 90 32.3%
  • By St Georges Day (23 April)

    Votes: 21 7.5%
  • By August

    Votes: 9 3.2%
  • By Christmas

    Votes: 6 2.2%
  • Some time in 2023

    Votes: 15 5.4%
  • Before Hell Freezes Over

    Votes: 67 24.0%

  • Total voters
    279
What is unfortunate is Biden's personal prejudices against the UK are constantly degrading any relationship that has been fostered between the US and the UK.

It has been ongoing from the moment he was inaugurated, and continues on from the previous Democrat President Obama, so perhaps even from a party level.

Such finger pointing at a time like this when a united front is required against a common enemy, a dangerous weakness, that Putin no doubt counted on.

Biden as leader of the US becomes more of a liability to the stability of the globe day by day.
 
I think Moscow will be happy for the doves/hawks arguments to play out, with either Track One or Track Two as the consequence. The current exercise is, I believe, all about breaking Ukraine's urge to follow the military route in its relations with Russia, one way or another.

As I have argued, Putin's bigger game is to re-enter Europe on his terms and to remove the threat of further NATO expansion. He knows that the current NATO members are no military threat to him and that it is a mainly defensive alliance. The current talk of defensive deployments is a bluff and he knows we know it. It is about threatening Ukraine. What he emphatically does not want is NATO membership empowering nations who harbour ambitions to take him or his clients on militarily, however justified their grievances. War costs him money and popular support and even in Russia, this matters.

My bottom line; strategically this is not about Russia re-entering Ukraine, it is about Russia re-entering Europe. Putin sees the US and the UK as hostile to this end, which I suspect is one of the reasons why Russia saw BREXIT and Trump in favourable terms (although Russia is keen to keep Britain as a secure and viable economic hub for its own purposes).
In finance its called the layered strategy. The idea is to manipulate people's emotions, by giving off fuzzy price signals through stock manipulation and people in the market start to buy/sell outside of logic and reason (market manipulation), the modern version is gaming the API and automated algorithms to trigger a panic.

The critical factor is what sun tzu said about knowing yourself and knowing everyone else to win. The Russians have triggered the Hawks in Ukraine and across Europe and America into a paroxysm of idiocy driven by hate/fear and all the good emotions, that push you into acting outside of logic and reason, I heard Tucker Carlson on the Spectator refer to them as Infantile.
 
I'm not sure there is much likelihood of a political settlement. The problem for Russia is that, even if there is a political agreement to limit NATO's role in Ukraine, or to otherwise give Russia security guarantees, Ukraine is developing into a Western society. Putin cannot stop the risk that represents unless Russia - or a Russian proxy - is in control.

You are right, it doesn't matter what guarantees are in place, as long as Ukraine remains hostile to Russia, Moscow won't trust them. But invading the rest of Ukraine is an extreme solution.

I'm starting to think that what Putin really wants is for the leading Continental powers, France and Germany, to take over the role of mentors for Ukraine, rather than the US and UK. He knows that for at least a generation, the Kremlin will cut no ice in Kiev; the wounds now run too deep. But better it being guided by those with whom he is on speaking terms than those with whom he is not.

In the meantime, 100k poised troops and a hotline to the Pentagon will be a guard against the hawks...
 
Latest news has it that it seems that Biden can't even reassure Zelensky in the Ukraine that the US is an ally, let alone the public of the USA that he is a competent strong and capable leader.
 

endure

GCM
Talking about other people is usually considered an unfriendly act, but of course your not at all bothered about me.... I do understand what grates, is anything which flies in the face of the simple narrative been peddled and even implying Ukrainian forces could ever stoop to the sorts of evil acts carried out by others is inconceivable because that would challenge all your other strange notions.

As for rejecting peace ? the entire purpose of diplomacy is to find common ground, but you and others spend all your time pushing a view that their isn't common ground and I do find it wearisome enough to put you on ignore and don't bother replying.
Badly spelled word salad - again...
 

arfah

ADC
Latest news has it that it seems that Biden can't even reassure Zelensky in the Ukraine that the US is an ally, let alone the public of the USA that he is a competent strong and capable leader.

B46F88D6-0873-4280-91E4-4D976306B251.jpeg
F484F8AE-EDE0-43A7-935A-F113DA88B23B.jpeg
 
. . . My bottom line; strategically this is not about Russia re-entering Ukraine, it is about Russia re-entering Europe. Putin sees the US and the UK as hostile to this end, which I suspect is one of the reasons why Russia saw BREXIT and Trump in favourable terms (although Russia is keen to keep Britain as a secure and viable economic hub for its own purposes).
Can you explain . . . "it is about Russia re-entering Europe".
 
........... My bottom line; strategically this is not about Russia re-entering Ukraine, it is about Russia re-entering Europe. Putin sees the US and the UK as hostile to this end, which I suspect is one of the reasons why Russia saw BREXIT and Trump in favourable terms (although Russia is keen to keep Britain as a secure and viable economic hub for its own purposes).

Russia is in Europe. However it refuses to abide by European standards, but wants to impose its own. Moscow needs to be in control. The Kremlin psychologically cannot allow the country it controls to be part of something as a equal member. It has to be able to control the organisation. The "Muscovite Mindset".
 
Another thought provoking article from FP:


Extract:

The third and final factor is that without a radical reshaping of global security architecture (which is not on the horizon), Russia sees Ukraine as a territory that must be returned to Moscow’s geopolitical supervision at any price. Right now, the Kremlin aims to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, but that demand does not address the core problem of Russia’s intentions toward Ukraine: shaping its political future and sidelining all but those Ukrainian players who are acceptable to the Kremlin.
 
Can you explain . . . "it is about Russia re-entering Europe".

It wants to return to being a central player as opposed to a peripheral one (in both the political and geographic senses), although as Condo notes, on its own terms and with Western European standards as an a la carte menu.
 
It wants to return to being a central player as opposed to a peripheral one (in both the political and geographic senses), although as Condo notes, on its own terms and with Western European standards as an a la carte menu.
I thought it was because everything in Russia had already been stolen or looted
 
Would not like to be a Ukrainian conscript or front line trooper right now. Hope they are getting all they need .
 

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What is unfortunate is Biden's personal prejudices against the UK are constantly degrading any relationship that has been fostered between the US and the UK.

It has been ongoing from the moment he was inaugurated, and continues on from the previous Democrat President Obama, so perhaps even from a party level.

Such finger pointing at a time like this when a united front is required against a common enemy, a dangerous weakness, that Putin no doubt counted on.

Biden as leader of the US becomes more of a liability to the stability of the globe day by day.
So what you are saying is Orange Man wasn’t as bad for the world as the guy who replaced him… shocking utterly shocking.
 
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