Russian Troop Movements Reported Near Ukraine

When Will Russia Invade Ukraine

  • Wed 16th Feb

    Votes: 20 7.0%
  • Before 22nd Feb

    Votes: 54 19.0%
  • By St David's Day (1 March)

    Votes: 90 31.7%
  • By St Georges Day (23 April)

    Votes: 21 7.4%
  • By August

    Votes: 9 3.2%
  • By Christmas

    Votes: 6 2.1%
  • Some time in 2023

    Votes: 16 5.6%
  • Before Hell Freezes Over

    Votes: 68 23.9%

  • Total voters
    284

4(T)

LE
Interesting. The other day I spoke to a Russian (medical) consultant who has lived in the UK for 25 years - having fled Moscow (in her own words) the "Wild West" in the wake of collapse of Communism. Although she stated she had no respect for Putin, yet she is absolutely convinced this is a Ukrainian plot to break up the Motherland and that Putin was the strong leader that Rodina needed, being encircled by NATO. I was shocked by her description of Ukrainians and their duplicity during World War II.


"Breaking up the motherland" is very much one of the core propaganda themes thats being hammered into the Russian population. Apparently there are many documents and videos in the possession of Russian media that prove the NATO plan to break up Russia into smaller and more manageable states. Somehow the Ukrainians are part of this plot (the logic here is a bit cloudy, given that Ukraine itself is held to be some sort of empire of suppressed Russian territories).

Incidentally, the back end of this story is being used to crack down on Russia's own ethnic groups, with the likes of Bashkirs, Tartars, Tuvans, having their ethnic organisations (mostly social, rather than separatist) being added to the lengthening "foreign agent" list.

Absurd as the Russian storytelling appears to us, its really rather frightening and real. As you have seen, even educated western-domiciled Russians are swallowing this stuff and seeing CIA/NATO plots everywhere. Inside Russia its much worse. 20-odd years of 24/7 faux-soviet messaging has imprinted a lot of legend and fake history into peoples' minds.
 

JCC

LE
That is exactly what Putin wants to project. To be fair the man is playing a pretty subtle strategy, as nothing riles up the French and other European nations as somebody negotiating European security, without them at the top table and Kiev is so wrapped up with its own journey westward that it fails to see the signs.

And once this kerfuffle becomes chip wrapper the West will return to merrily sawing away at the branch it's sitting on.
 
the messages of weakness being unintentionally sent by some in Washington.
Not knocking the commentators (not by any stretch) but I shake my head at the sheer gormlessness of politicians when they try to deal with displaying 'strength' - starting with the tw@t Rumsfeld's insistence (to The Shrub, as reported by the legendary Bob Woodward) that responsing to 9/11 by committing force to Afghanistan somehow "wasn't enough" and that only regime change in Iraq would "show the world how strong we are".

The cost, the duration, and the dismal consequences of Western actions in those two sandboxes are major factors behind the Western retreat into pusillanimity, even in relation to issues pretty much in their own neighbourhood.

Oh how are the mighty fallen!
 
................ Russian amphibious assets are on the move - from the Baltic to the Mediterranean, and probably into the Black Sea. Preparing for threatening amphibious assault?


It would be nice to think that the same end awaits them as it did the Russian Fleet that had transited half way around the world in 1905.
 

rampant

LE
Kit Reviewer
I reckon there will be more of this than we seen in in the last 70yrs, it won't be massive scale like in the First, but field fortification will be significant again, along with the myriad Cold War Skillls which, as some have noted on here, may have withered somewhat within the BA, eg HQ moves etc etc

Oh FFS, I was supposed to inculde a link i n here, you donkey's arrse ramps




@Slime Apologies I meant to incude a couple of links in my earlier reponse to you
 

Yokel

LE
Not knocking the commentators (not by any stretch) but I shake my head at the sheer gormlessness of politicians when they try to deal with displaying 'strength' - starting with the tw@t Rumsfeld's insistence (to The Shrub, as reported by the legendary Bob Woodward) that responsing to 9/11 by committing force to Afghanistan somehow "wasn't enough" and that only regime change in Iraq would "show the world how strong we are".

The cost, the duration, and the dismal consequences of Western actions in those two sandboxes are major factors behind the Western retreat into pusillanimity, even in relation to issues pretty much in their own neighbourhood.

Oh how are the mighty fallen!

I think that I have commented previously that focusing on those two places led to a weakening of more conventional capabilities needed for peer level adversaries - or simply ones with air and naval forces. I have also bemoaned the way political leaders have been fooled by the 'end of history' types and allowed a great deal of military and industrial capability to decay.
 
And once this kerfuffle becomes chip wrapper the West will return to merrily sawing away at the branch it's sitting on.
I get insulted personally on the site all the time and the nicest thing anyone has ever said to me and was meant as an insult, is that I'm over-thinking things. Or, recently I'm too wordy and actually dare take the trouble to offer reason to my opinions/arguments.

Whilst the problem of Russia isn't going away, the media will eventually subside from its 'Danzig or War' coverage and return, as you say to attacking its own citizenry.... Everyone inside our own borders who believe in borders don't forget are disgusting racists and society is apparently a thing, but culture that isn't diverse enough is evil personified.
 
All very well Putting talking about aggressors receiving a robust response, however the way this has been played out it is Russia who are the aggressors... and getting a little concerned about the steadily building response they did not expect.

Putin has some serious pondering to do.
 
All this military posturing has cost Russia a great deal of money that could have gone towards development, new equipment, research (military of course)...not a bad thing either.

I do hear this trope about the cost of deployment being repeated regularly without any real basis or evidence.

What *exactly* does it cost them other than some diesel?

And of course this ‘great deal of money’ is undoubtedly dwarfed by the increased income from raised gas prices.
 

Slime

LE
I do hear this trope about the cost of deployment being repeated regularly without any real basis or evidence.

What *exactly* does it cost them other than some diesel?

And of course this ‘great deal of money’ is undoubtedly dwarfed by the increased income from raised gas prices.

Why do you think you keep hearing it regularly?

If you can work out a way to keep the cost of deployed formations as cheap as having forces just in their one home base, and just using the one set of facilities instead of two you might be able to sell the formula to the world and get rich quick. :)

But, if you do come up with a scheme, just remember it was me who prompted you, and I’ll take a share of the profit. :)
 
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I do hear this trope about the cost of deployment being repeated regularly without any real basis or evidence.

What *exactly* does it cost them other than some diesel?

And of course this ‘great deal of money’ is undoubtedly dwarfed by the increased income from raised gas prices.
Its called 'wishful thinking' and its an enormously big logical fallacy, but were full of them.

Working inside your own borders, using inter-operable kit and having an extensive and existing rail network which is used to working closely with the military makes it relatively cheap. Prices go up when you move too far from the railhead and onwards, to the forward deployment area and note all those satellites broadcast in the media don't show the tanks lined up in tactical formations close up to the border.
 

Goatman

ADC
Book Reviewer
SOURCE
" The current crisis between Russia and Ukraine is a reckoning that has been 30 years in the making. It is about much more than Ukraine and its possible NATO membership. It is about the future of the European order crafted after the Soviet Union’s collapse.

During the 1990s, the United States and its allies designed a Euro-Atlantic security architecture in which Russia had no clear commitment or stake, and since Russian President Vladimir Putin came to power, Russia has been challenging that system. Putin has routinely complained that the global order ignores Russia’s security concerns, and he has demanded that the West recognize Moscow’s right to a sphere of privileged interests in the post-Soviet space. He has staged incursions into neighboring states, such as Georgia, that have moved out of Russia’s orbit in order to prevent them from fully reorienting.

Putin has now taken this approach one step further. He is threatening a far more comprehensive invasion of Ukraine than the annexation of Crimea and the intervention in the Donbas that Russia carried out in 2014, an invasion that would undermine the current order and potentially reassert Russia’s preeminence in what he insists is its “rightful” place on the European continent and in world affairs.

He sees this as a good time to act. In his view, the United States is weak, divided, and less able to pursue a coherent foreign policy. His decades in office have made him more cynical about the United States’ staying power. Putin is now dealing with his fifth U.S. president, and he has come to see Washington as an unreliable interlocutor.

The new German government is still finding its political feet, Europe on the whole is focused on its domestic challenges, and the tight energy market gives Russia more leverage over the continent. The Kremlin believes that it can bank on Beijing’s support, just as China supported Russia after the West tried to isolate it in 2014.

------------- ----------------------- continues --------------------- ----------------------------
 

Slime

LE
Its called 'wishful thinking' and its an enormously big logical fallacy, but were full of them.

Working inside your own borders, using inter-operable kit and having an extensive and existing rail network which is used to working closely with the military makes it relatively cheap. Prices go up when you move too far from the railhead and onwards, to the forward deployment area and note all those satellites broadcast in the media don't show the tanks lined up in tactical formations close up to the border.

Excellent, another subject you suddenly know loads about.

Wishing thinking aside………..How much does it cost to run and maintain two static locations when troops are deployed, as compared to one manned home location?

Obviously interoperable kit wouldn’t come into the equation, as the forces are bringing kit home their home barracks rather than using pre positioned kit (which of course costs money to maintain……..on top of regular use kit).
 
Its called 'wishful thinking' and its an enormously big logical fallacy, but were full of them.

Working inside your own borders, using inter-operable kit and having an extensive and existing rail network which is used to working closely with the military makes it relatively cheap. Prices go up when you move too far from the railhead and onwards, to the forward deployment area and note all those satellites broadcast in the media don't show the tanks lined up in tactical formations close up to the border.
When did the interior of Belarus become inside the Russian border? Have you jumped the gun?
 
Psst wanna buy some helmets!

Germany offers Ukraine helmets, Kyiv's Klitschko "speechless"​

I think they still have plenty of helmets on offer -
1643297706227.png
 
. . . Anyway, Russian amphibious assets are on the move - from the Baltic to the Mediterranean, and probably into the Black Sea. Preparing for threatening amphibious assault?


If only in a small way, that is "good news" for the three Baltic States, and other NATO members in NW Europe.
 
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