Russian Troop Movements Reported Near Ukraine

[Bus Pass 01]

Where to start? The cables are a lot deeper than 200ft, and the majority of data traffic is carried by them.

See Undersea Cables: Indispensable, insecure by Rishi Sunak MP

Summary of chapter 1

• The UK and the world is highly dependent on undersea communications cables.
• 97% of global communications are still transmitted via cables lying deep beneath the oceans.
• Today’s submarine network comprises an estimated 213 independent cable systems and 545,018 miles of fibre. • There is no alternative to using these undersea cables. Satellite technology cannot effectively handle the communications requirements of the modern digital economy and society.
• In a single day, these cables carry some $10 trillion of financial transfers and process some 15 million financial transactions.

Do we need to brush up on our morse?

 

[Banker]

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in The Telegraph suggests "any attempt to block Russian crude exports through an Iran-style financial blockade would be unenforceable. China is the world's biggest oil importer and would do as it pleased...Even if the policy ‘succeeded’, the oil shortage would risk a global recession and Joe Biden’s political demise."

and, "Whether SWIFT is the knock-out nuclear option these days is an open question. The Carnegie Moscow Center says Russia now has its own national version known as SPFS. It could conduct transactions directly with China through the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System."

Putin has ensured Fortress Russia can withstand a long siege

The US has laid out a sanctions strategy but unity with European states is far from evident

www.telegraph.co.uk

The second point doesn’t hold up to scrutiny.

 

[JCC]

The second point doesn’t hold up to scrutiny.

I'd be interested in hearing a more detailed rebuttal to AEP's point.

 

[Slime]

In light of recent conflicts I would imagine troops on either side of the Russian/Ukrainian border will be looking for any help they can get, and very keen to learn any new skills.

What would be interesting to know (but I have no need to know) are exactly what weapons each side will be able to bring to the fight, if any fighting ever happens.

Back in the day things like Russian ZSU batteries were very much effective platforms, but the recent Armenian/Azerbaijan conflict saw fairly cheap UAVs to take out ZSUs with no trouble at all, as well as other anti air systems.

I have to admit to having some questions in my mind about recent events, but none of them are suitable for asking on a public forum.

 

[4(T)]

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in The Telegraph suggests "any attempt to block Russian crude exports through an Iran-style financial blockade would be unenforceable. China is the world's biggest oil importer and would do as it pleased...Even if the policy ‘succeeded’, the oil shortage would risk a global recession and Joe Biden’s political demise."

and, "Whether SWIFT is the knock-out nuclear option these days is an open question. The Carnegie Moscow Center says Russia now has its own national version known as SPFS. It could conduct transactions directly with China through the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System."

Putin has ensured Fortress Russia can withstand a long siege

The US has laid out a sanctions strategy but unity with European states is far from evident

www.telegraph.co.uk

That seems to me to be a colossal underestimate of the effects arising from blocking SWIFT transactions.

Russia might well be able to sell some stuff to China (which may soon reveal just how friendly the Chinese are, once they have a monopolistic position), but pretty much all other finance and trade flows internally and across borders will be obstructed.

I very much doubt that the domestic SPFS system covers more than a small percentage of domestic traffic, or that it has even been stress tested to see if could hypothetically take over SWIFT traffic (assuming that foreign parties are willing or able to conduct transactions over SPFS).

I think the Russian population would take a big hit, especially if this came on top of the ongoing Ruble devaluations. I'm not sure Russia has the means to replace foreign foodstuffs and other imported goods that might disappear from the shelves pdq.

 

[Resasi]

Russia demanded written responses from the US and NATO.

Written responses to Russian demands have now been delivered.

To no-one's surprise unreasonable Russian requirements/expectations have resulted in responses that they will consider less than adequate.

What now?

It had been postulated that their demands had been crafted so that they could then proceed with original intentions, in the expectations that an uninvited and weak West would then stand by doing nothing.

While weak and feeble to begin, the West's response has gathered momentum, possibly enough to make Putin pause for thought... not a bad thing.

All this military posturing has cost Russia a great deal of money that could have gone towards development, new equipment, research (military of course)...not a bad thing either.

It has diverted the Russian population's attention elsewhere, one of Putin's objectives, proved that Russia still has to be taken seriously...another, and may yet make him out to be the gracious peacekeeper should he back down...to his own population, unless he feels that this makes him out as a wimp for backing down.

So...still a sticky situation that could end in tears, but various politicians are reeling in the spotlight as they do what they do best...woffle.

Meanwhile building up a serious military counter to Russia's build-up should continue rather than simply threatening them with words.

 

[rampant]

In light of recent conflicts I would imagine troops on either side of the Russian/Ukrainian border will be looking for any help they can get, and very keen to learn any new skills.

What would be interesting to know (but I have no need to know) are exactly what weapons each side will be able to bring to the fight, if any fighting ever happens.

Back in the day things like Russian ZSU batteries were very much effective platforms, but the recent Armenian/Azerbaijan conflict saw fairly cheap UAVs to take out ZSUs with no trouble at all, as well as other anti air systems.

I have to admit to having some questions in my mind about recent events, but none of them are suitable for asking on a public forum.

I reckon there will be more of this than we seen in in the last 70yrs, it won't be massive scale like in the First, but field fortification will be significant again, along with the myriad Cold War Skillls which, as some have noted on here, may have withered somewhat within the BA, eg HQ moves etc etc

Oh FFS, I was supposed to inculde a link i n here, you donkey's arrse ramps

The Lost Art of Digging Field Defences - Think Defence

A look at the re-emergent need for digging in and using timber for field defences

www.thinkdefence.co.uk

Are we losing the art of digging? - Think Defence

In the last decade or more of operations in the Middle East, the enemy’s that British forces have faced had not had a great deal of indirect fire capability. Although Iraqi forces in 2003 certainly did have them and used them, they were relatively few in number. In Afghanistan, the majority of...

www.thinkdefence.co.uk

 

[Red Hander]

In light of recent conflicts I would imagine troops on either side of the Russian/Ukrainian border will be looking for any help they can get, and very keen to learn any new skills.

What would be interesting to know (but I have no need to know) are exactly what weapons each side will be able to bring to the fight, if any fighting ever happens.

Back in the day things like Russian ZSU batteries were very much effective platforms, but the recent Armenian/Azerbaijan conflict saw fairly cheap UAVs to take out ZSUs with no trouble at all, as well as other anti air systems.

I have to admit to having some questions in my mind about recent events, but none of them are suitable for asking on a public forum.

UAV were effective in NK but one thing missing was an effective Armenian Air Force. The 'unknown' about the use of combat UAV is how long they last against a combination of current fighter aircraft and modern Ground-based Air Defence. Air defence that is entirely ground - based is at a disadvantage off the bat.

 

[gaijin]

I find his posts interesting.

As in erudite and thought provoking or like an unidentified mould under a toenail?

 

[Red Hander]

From Twitter: of interest is the proximity of the location to the frontier (plus the number of vehicles):

 

[Zemlyak]

If already posted, apologies, but this made me chuckle:

 

[Just_plain_you]

More good analysis from Foreign Policy: Why Is Putin Acting Now?

 

[Slime]

UAV were effective in NK but one thing missing was an effective Armenian Air Force. The 'unknown' about the use of combat UAV is how long they last against a combination of current fighter aircraft and modern Ground-based Air Defence. Air defence that is entirely ground - based is at a disadvantage off the bat.

To add to that, we are also talking of new or future conflicts that could have very diverse rules of engagement.

If we looked at the two countries this thread relates to, and if new hostilities did kick off:

Would Russia use any discretion about who they fired on, or would they just tell lies like they did after Russian personnel shot down MH17?
Would Russian forces target NATO or European ISR aircraft if they are in Ukrainian airspace?

Would Ukrainian aircraft enter Russian or Belorussian territory?

Would Ukrainian forces target ground based Russian AD units still on Russian or Belorussian soil?

The Vietnam conflict taught us the fallacy of not targeting hostile SAMs ‘across a border’, and both sides here would be well aware of that.

 

[Filthy_contract]

Russian domestic media (TV and internet) is currently absolutely saturated with tales of NATO & Ukrainian SF about to launch "deniable" attacks on innocent Russian soldiers, and against civilian targets throughout Russia (pretty much every mundane domestic RTA or other accident is being reported with direct or indirect suggestions of foreign saboteurs and terrorists).

The stooges who serve tennis balls to the Kremlin (MPs, bloggers, bots) are demanding pre-emptive defensive strikes against the aggressors, and/or Russians being "oppressed" in the disputed areas. Plenty of demands for the separatist areas to be armed and assisted.

None of this stuff is being challenged internally, as there is of course no free political opposition, or media, or sanction-free private expression.

Lets hope that the war isn't initiated by another set of civilian apartment bombings a la 1999....

Interesting. The other day I spoke to a Russian (medical) consultant who has lived in the UK for 25 years - having fled Moscow (in her own words) the "Wild West" in the wake of collapse of Communism. Although she stated she had no respect for Putin, yet she is absolutely convinced this is a Ukrainian plot to break up the Motherland and that Putin was the strong leader that Rodina needed, being encircled by NATO. I was shocked by her description of Ukrainians and her accusations of their duplicity during World War II.

 

[Fwederick]

Russia's friends have deep pockets.

Russia as an influence proxy for China ? - Asia Power Watch

Just as North Korea has long played the role of China’s nuclear deterrent proxy and Beijing has been capitalizing on Moscow’s frontal opposition to Washington…

asiapowerwatch.com

 

[Emcon Ecomcon]

As long as the West buys into the concept that emotion trumps logic it is doomed to follow the Western Empire into ruin.

If you could define hatred as an integer:-
Pre-expansion NATO; Russia was 1 of many threats post cold war.
Post-expansion NATO; Russia is 2147483647 and the number one obsession within NATO and that's despite the meaningless distraction wars in the middle east.... Of course; that hate/fear and strong emotions all came from taking on board so many enemies of Russia and its a logical fallacy, the arguments spouted by so many in the west that Russia is simply wrong to fear even more expansion.

Diplomacy generally tries to get people to think more rationally. But, the ugly truth is we sold our souls to china on an assumption they're would become more like us (WRONG), by expanding outwards Russia would eventually accept its lot in life and lie down (WRONG) and the forever wars were a towel of babel wrapped in a lie.

The way out of this impasse is to stop lying and start challenging all those assumptions and ambiguities and I think Putin is doing it for us and assuming/hoping it will break NATO apart is also wrong (America hasn't stopped been the biggest military in the world).

 

[JCC]

If you could define hatred as an integer:-
Pre-expansion NATO; Russia was 1 of many threats.
Post-expansion NATO; Russia is 2147483647 and the number one obsession within NATO and that's despite the meaningless distraction wars in the middle east.... Of course; that hate/fear and strong emotions all came from taking on board so many enemies of Russia and its a logical fallacy, the arguments spouted by so many in the west.

Diplomacy generally tries to get people to think more rationally. But, the ugly truth is we sold our souls to china on an assumption they're would become more like us (WRONG), by expanding outwards Russia would eventually accept its lot in life and lie down (WRONG) and the forever wars were a towel of babel wrapped in a lie.

The way out of this impasse is to stop lying and start challenging all those assumptions and ambiguities and I think Putin is doing it for us and assuming/hoping it will break NATO apart is also wrong (America hasn't stopped been the biggest military in the world).

Hmmmm...maybe but I regard this current squabble between Washington and Putin as more of a sideshow compared to the hole that Western societies have dug for themselves; delusional or woolly thinking will not get them out.

 

[Fwederick]

The FT have also covered the Proxy relationship in depth.

The overwhelming message to the West is that our capitulation in Afghanistan was seen by our enemies as "the Wests Berlin Wall moment".

Subscribe to read | Financial Times

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication

www.ft.com

 

[Yokel]

Most modern production valves come from Zrussia. China next.

What sort of valves are being discussed here? Not things like microwave valves, TWTAs, etc? The sort of thing produced by people like TMD.

Anyway, Russian amphibious assets are on the move - from the Baltic to the Mediterranean, and probably into the Black Sea. Preparing for threatening amphibious assault?

 

[Emcon Ecomcon]

Hmmmm...maybe but I regard this current squabble between Washington and Putin as more of a sideshow compared to the hole that Western societies have dug for themselves; delusional or woolly thinking will not get them out.

That is exactly what Putin wants to project. To be fair the man is playing a pretty subtle strategy, as nothing riles up the French and other European nations as somebody negotiating European security, without them at the top table and Kiev is so wrapped up with its own journey westward that it fails to see the signs.