Russian Troop Movements Reported Near Ukraine

When Will Russia Invade Ukraine

  • Wed 16th Feb

    Votes: 20 6.9%
  • Before 22nd Feb

    Votes: 54 18.7%
  • By St David's Day (1 March)

    Votes: 93 32.2%
  • By St Georges Day (23 April)

    Votes: 22 7.6%
  • By August

    Votes: 9 3.1%
  • By Christmas

    Votes: 6 2.1%
  • Some time in 2023

    Votes: 17 5.9%
  • Before Hell Freezes Over

    Votes: 68 23.5%

  • Total voters
    289
They've frequently been used in Syria and Chechnya and seem to be effective in a ground role. Makes you wonder whether Russia is anticipating urban combat? (or did someone say 'we're taking everything else - might as well shove it on'.
I think this time, the 23-4 might have a lot more trouble trying to keep out of HARMs way...... assuming their radar actually works (You just can't get the valves these days anymore).
 
I did watch it and understand that, I was surprised by the little heard of responses from committing this hostile act or, as it seems, from anyone other than the concerns of the fishermen who seem concerned about their fish rather than these super important cables Ivan may be trying to sabotage.

It feels like media hype.
Not so much hype, if anything quite the reverse - the media don't want to follow it up.

Undersea Cable Connecting Norway With Arctic Satellite Station Has Been Mysteriously Severed
 
I think this time, the 23-4 might have a lot more trouble trying to keep out of HARMs way...... assuming their radar actually works (You just can't get the valves these days anymore).
They will be used in a direct fire way. And just because we can't get the valves...
 
I am not sure how much we rely on undersea cables that much that we have been allowing Russia to cut them recently.

There are people on this site working in that area that may, or may not disclose anything, but I would be surprised they are cutting any cable worthy of worrying about.

I watch very high definition TV on a satellite, whilst the bandwith to order movies and rewind them etc. is the need to have internet, I doubt the government are limited by such and if the financial institutions of Europe was at the sole mercy of an undersea cable we seemingly don't care that much about it then more fool us, let them build new ships to fcuk around with a red herring 200ft below the surface!
There are redundancies built into the system of course but the loss of even some transatlantic capacity could have far reaching effects across all sorts of different spheres of business and personal life.

The link below goes to a document that is 5 years old - and may mak eyou sleepy if you read it for too long - but gives you an idea

 
They've frequently been used in Syria and Chechnya and seem to be effective in a ground role. Makes you wonder whether Russia is anticipating urban combat? (or did someone say 'we're taking everything else - might as well shove it on'.
I think this time, the 23-4 might have a lot more trouble trying to keep out of HARMs way.
They will be used in a direct fire way. And just because we can't get the valves...
That crew is going to need a whole lot of vodka then.
 

Jacl

LE
As the Irish so willingly supported their European brethren during Brexit (sorry), I wonder when their chums in Germany will step up and help them with something more than a fishing boat?
The Germans don't have anything more than a fishing boat. What little there is is either overstretched or VOR (VOS?)
 
I think this time, the 23-4 might have a lot more trouble trying to keep out of HARMs way.

That crew is going to need a whole lot of vodka then.
I can see you're trying to be clever, but what HARM fired by what aircraft? Unless it's a red on red.
 

Slime

LE
Its my opinion and still no invasion this morning, that was just days away.

So just complete guesswork on your part, and not based in any reality or factual knowledge.
Glad you cleared that up. :)
I had to mention it as you didn’t say it was your opinion, and didn’t follow up with what Putin’s short and long term plans are.

Again, and for avoidance of doubt, we must recall that you expressed your opinion on whether there would be an invasion or not, while many other posters have not offered ed an opinion on that.
I for one, with me just being a neutral party in all this couldn’t have the slightest idea on whether: Putin wants to invade; Putin will end up invading or will resist the temptation to invade on a tiny scale to save face to the Russian electorate.

I mention this as you said you would be ‘spectacularly wrong’ if Russia does invade Ukraine.
 
Have Ukraine got any HARM's or anything capable of actually delivering one? Air supremacy is pretty much guaranteed for Russia in the event.
If memory serves there is the KH series and I guess the Ukraine has access to anti-radiation stuff.. But one assumes, the ZSU is now more orientated towards helicopters and the job of dealing with fast moving aircraft are the problem for the missiles.
 
I think this time, the 23-4 might have a lot more trouble trying to keep out of HARMs way.

That crew is going to need a whole lot of vodka then.
Based on videos of events in Syria, the ZSU is mainly used to attack defended buildings: roll out from cover, fire for a few seconds, roll back to avoid return fire/ATGM.
 
Sniffin Joe is about to have another bad foreign policy experience me thinks.

Now if only the Germans would let NATO use it's airspace to ferry the last minute assistance to Ukraine and cut down on the time it takes to get the bang sticks to the party.
Plenty of Germans will be embarrassed about the stance their government is taking.
Fancy not giving the Estonians permission to pass on old East German weaponry which they are holding as reserve stock – the bloody stuff, by definition, is at least 30 years old.
 
Have Ukraine got any HARM's or anything capable of actually delivering one? Air supremacy is pretty much guaranteed for Russia in the event.
SU-24 can carry anti-radiation missiles.

How effective they would be God knows.
 
So just complete guesswork on your part, and not based in any reality or factual knowledge.
Glad you cleared that up. :)
I had to mention it as you didn’t say it was your opinion, and didn’t follow up with what Putin’s short and long term plans are.

Again, and for avoidance of doubt, we must recall that you expressed your opinion on whether there would be an invasion or not, while many other posters have not offered ed an opinion on that.
I for one, with me just being a neutral party in all this couldn’t have the slightest idea on whether: Putin wants to invade; Putin will end up invading or will resist the temptation to invade on a tiny scale to save face to the Russian electorate.

I mention this as you said you would be ‘spectacularly wrong’ if Russia does invade Ukraine.
Yes, if I'm wrong I will be spectacularly wrong, IF the invasion happens. I have absolutely no doubt, you will be first in line to tell me that all my other opinions are bollox as well. One would like to think the reverse would flow, but we all know people will just reinvent a new timetable and winter is coming next year and why at times, the intellectual debate is often so weak is because you and others are often defending media certainties which are little different from my own honest held opinion.

On objectives and goals. I've expressed them loads of times, but, Putin's short term objectives have already been fulfilled (No NATO membership for Ukraine, People arguing and Kiev's fantasy of an Operation Storm (see: Croats) has died to death, with the redeployment of troops from across Russia).

Putin's long term goals are something almost everyone with an ounce of interest already knows i.e. divide NATO and create the leverage needed for Europeans to start pushing back against NATO and America is the very opposite of security is embodied by ever more expansion (see: Roman Empire and Augustus).
 

Slime

LE
There has been supposition in this thread around whether Ukraine would ever join NATO, and I’ve noted Emcon’s comments on this that mentioned the percentage of chance of that happening.*

Russia has now had their demand turned down by NATO to bar Ukraine from NATO membership.

This of course flies in the face of the ‘Russia stronk’ theory to the wider world, although Russian state media may portray a different story within Russia, and the NATO decision may not harm Putin within Russia itself.

Of course, this could also be a bit like the Cuban missile crisis** in that the reality of the negotiations might have more to them than the MSM report.

*Guesswork, but not to say the guesses were right or wrong.
QUICK ADDITION. When Thinking about whether Ukraine would ever join NATO, I am aware that Russia is demanding that Ukraine should never be allowed to join NATO, and that NATO have now bluntly said no to the Russian demand. But, living in the U.K., and seeing the weekly demands from the SNP I am also aware that Ukraine itself will be the real factor in how well they progress (With the SNP desire to join the EU in mind, and whether they meet the criteria in reality).

**A bizarre event in that even in 2022 many years later, a sizeable amount of people in the West were only taught that this was a victory for the West, and that the Soviets were forced to remove missiles from Cuba (while not having been taught that the deal also involved the USA having to remove missiles from close to the soviet border too).
I can also add, that when I did my O levels the syllabus only really taught the Cuban missile crisis as a victory for the USA. It didn’t mention the removal of American missiles, and at that it wasn’t public knowledge about the scenario with Soviet nuclear torpedos!
 
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Breakdown off the Russian forces currently in the proximity of the Russian/Ukraine border, Crimea and Belarus.

 

JCC

LE
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in The Telegraph suggests "any attempt to block Russian crude exports through an Iran-style financial blockade would be unenforceable. China is the world's biggest oil importer and would do as it pleased...Even if the policy ‘succeeded’, the oil shortage would risk a global recession and Joe Biden’s political demise."

and, "Whether SWIFT is the knock-out nuclear option these days is an open question. The Carnegie Moscow Center says Russia now has its own national version known as SPFS. It could conduct transactions directly with China through the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System."

 

Slime

LE
Yes, if I'm wrong I will be spectacularly wrong, IF the invasion happens. I have absolutely no doubt, you will be first in line to tell me that all my other opinions are bollox as well. One would like to think the reverse would flow, but we all know people will just reinvent a new timetable and winter is coming next year and why at times, the intellectual debate is often so weak is because you and others are often defending media certainties which are little different from my own honest held opinion.

On objectives and goals. I've expressed them loads of times, but, Putin's short term objectives have already been fulfilled (No NATO membership for Ukraine, People arguing and Kiev's fantasy of an Operation Storm (see: Croats) has died to death, with the redeployment of troops from across Russia).

Putin's long term goals are something almost everyone with an ounce of interest already knows i.e. divide NATO and create the leverage needed for Europeans to start pushing back against NATO and America is the very opposite of security is embodied by ever more expansion (see: Roman Empire and Augustus).

Two quick points.
I haven’t expressed an opinion on whether there will be a Russian invasion of Ukraine, so can’t be proven right or wrong on that………..
I have no idea what will happen.

You have gone back to stating your guesses as facts again.

No point challenging you on your idea that Putin’s goal of Ukraine never joining NATO has already been fulfilled, as you may be playing catch-up on NATO’s direct refusal to rule that out…………..which could include the following two options:
Ukraine choosing join, as is their right as an independent country.
Another country invading Ukraine and denying them the option of free will.
 

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