Russian Troop Movements Reported Near Ukraine

When Will Russia Invade Ukraine

  • Wed 16th Feb

    Votes: 18 6.5%
  • Before 22nd Feb

    Votes: 53 19.0%
  • By St David's Day (1 March)

    Votes: 90 32.3%
  • By St Georges Day (23 April)

    Votes: 21 7.5%
  • By August

    Votes: 9 3.2%
  • By Christmas

    Votes: 6 2.2%
  • Some time in 2023

    Votes: 15 5.4%
  • Before Hell Freezes Over

    Votes: 67 24.0%

  • Total voters
    279

LD17

MIA
The Winter Olympics open in eleven days. Since Xi and Putin are currently giving each other hand-jobs, Vlad may hold off invading so he doesn't take any news coverage away from the games. What are friends for? ;)
Yep
They go from Feb 4-20, looking at around 21 or 22 for the tanks to start rolling…..
 

pinepig

Clanker
Yep
They go from Feb 4-20, looking at around 21 or 22 for the tanks to start rolling…..
Thinking they'll go earlier if weather is a factor. Average temps increase above freezing end of Feb. I've never been there but would be interested to know what conditions are like in the field in March. Wondering just how soft it gets, and how long it stays that way.
 
Just been looking at some of the latest surveillance photos.... a LOT of the wagons don't seem to be first worked by the pristine snow on and around them (In weather like that we use to start the engines every 6 hours) and only about 25% of the tented accommodation appears to be in use (No snow on them from having heating and the comparison to the undisturbed snow around the unused ones again).
 
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Reporting now Biden is considering deploying 5,000 troops to the Baltics/Poland. IMHO that will just push Vlad to go sooner.
There was at least 1 and probably 2 USAF C-130 flights from Lakenheath to somewhere in Estonia on the 23rd, which is highly likely to be the precusser to a F-15 detachment from Lakenheath to that country.

Worth pointing out on the subject of F-15s, that 14 Seymour-Johnson AFB, NC based F-15s have been kept back at Lakenheath after an exercise last autumn.

4 other F-15s were deployed from Lakenheath to Aviano AB on the 21st.

Edit, It's confirmed there were 2 C-130s from Lakenheath to Estonia on the 23rd, and another one today to Estonia.
 
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Whining Civvy

LE
Book Reviewer
NATO lost its adversary in 1990 and having spent two decades without an enemy. We've talked so long and hard that NATO has grown in Russia's mind, to the extent of becoming an existential threat. Any strategic review in Russia can afford to shorten troop levels in Central Asia or Siberia, as China is now apparently trusted enough to pickup the slack and so our dreams of a new Shock Army on our borders has been realised by our own stupidity.
What's with the "our"?
 
Anyone doubt it will get kinetic ?
This thread is 10 months old and this Invasion still hasn't appeared ? I have very little doubt, a group of people on this site will be predicting the invasion, is just around the corner in another 2, 6, 12, 24 months time.

Russia has given everyone a clear understanding of its conditions and lets call them 'Berlin' Conditions from the old cold war. If Kiev presses forward with a formal NATO application and presumably if Moscow believes that application would be accepted (Berlin is attacked by the Soviets), then 24 hours later the tanks will be rolling and they're will include columns coming out of Belarus.
 
Just been looking at some of the latest surveillance photos.... a LOT of the wagons don't seem to be first worked by the pristine snow on and around them (In weather like that we use to start the engines every 6 hours) and only about 25% of the tented accommodation appears to be in use (No snow on them from having heating and the comparison to the undisturbed snow around the unused ones again).
These camps are permanent and the infrastructure will take time to catch up with the equipment transfers. But as we all remember from the old BAOR days, armored warfare needs to have your tracked vehicles at least within a 100 km of your line of advance and with this configuration the Russians can probably have the vehicles operating, crewed up and ready to roll within a very short space of time, with maybe a forward resupply point close up to the border itself to top off fuel.
 
Reporting now Biden is considering deploying 5,000 troops to the Baltics/Poland. IMHO that will just push Vlad to go sooner.

I can't help but feel that's the wrong message. There's a significant flavour of building a defence line, behind Ukraine. It's plain to see they're being left out in the cold.
 
This thread is 10 months old and this Invasion still hasn't appeared ? I have very little doubt, a group of people on this site will be predicting the invasion, is just around the corner in another 2, 6, 12, 24 months time.

Russia has given everyone a clear understanding of its conditions and lets call them 'Berlin' Conditions from the old cold war. If Kiev presses forward with a formal NATO application and presumably if Moscow believes that application would be accepted (Berlin is attacked by the Soviets), then 24 hours later the tanks will be rolling and they're will include columns coming out of Belarus.
Serious people think the issue important enough to, for example, have many surveillance assets in play, to supply weapons urgently to Ukraine, to evacuate embassies, to deploy troops to at risk areas, to deploy ships and aircraft to potential hot spots, to prep alternatives sources of energy, etc. And there is a large Ru/Belarusian army deploying on Russia's frontier.
That is, its not just some blokes here talking this up.

Edit - you can also tell its serious because some of the well-known people on Twitter who have ticks next to their names are suddenly tweeting about Ukraine. Covid is now very 2021. :)
 
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Serious people think the issue important enough to, for example, have many surveillance assets in play, to supply weapons urgently to Ukraine, to evacuate embassies, to deploy troops to at risk areas, to deploy ships and aircraft to potential hot spots, to prep alternatives sources of energy, etc. And there is a large Ru/Belarusian army deploying on Russia's frontier.
That is, its not just some blokes here talking this up.

Edit - you can also tell its serious because some of the well-known people on Twitter who have ticks next to their names are suddenly tweeting about Ukraine. Covid is now very 2021. :)
Serious enough that Israel is planning to evacuate upto 75,000 Jews to Israel should war break out.

 
Serious people think the issue important enough to, for example, have many surveillance assets in play, to supply weapons urgently to Ukraine, to evacuate embassies, to deploy troops to at risk areas, to deploy ships and aircraft to potential hot spots, to prep alternatives sources of energy, etc. And there is a large Ru/Belarusian army deploying on Russia's frontier.
That is, its not just some blokes here talking this up.

Edit - you can also tell its serious because some of the well-known people on Twitter who have ticks next to their names are suddenly tweeting about Ukraine. Covid is now very 2021. :)
And that is why I don't believe the narrative.... All those serious voices were the self same ones who preached their devotion for the senseless wars in Iraq, Libya, Syria and the forever conflict in Afghanistan and ALL are on board the Kievan Battle Express, including even dear Rory Stewart.... All of them are still trotting out the usual and same hollow alliteration of Munich(Chamberlain) as justification and this kind of thing excites and reinvigorates the war-mongerers amongst us and why they're have such a low tolerance to alternative narratives, whilst moving pieces around a chess board playing at soldiering.

Consider the article you just posted and both the UK and US supposedly withdrawing 'some' of its staff. It makes for a good headline, ratchets up the pressure and the other side is not dicking around and unlike our games, have laid down serious redlines and after our sides antics have subsided those troops will still be within marching distance.

Summary:-
We've already lost when Putin chose force and its like a checkmate 3 moves away and we are demonstrating and peacocking around to distract people from that ugly truth.
 
Exactly.. they must see something to have put in place a plan to do a mass evacuation of eligible persons.

To put it in perspective. The UK evacuated 15,000 from Kabul.. this is potentially 5 times that.
 
Exactly.. they must see something to have put in place a plan to do a mass evacuation of eligible persons.

To put it in perspective. The UK evacuated 15,000 from Kabul.. this is potentially 5 times that.
We've had attempted coups in Kiev(December), planned future coups in Kiev(British FO and some random ukranian MP), Embassies fleeing the Ukraine and arms shipments as if the North Vietnamese Army were closing the ring around Saigon, Pleiku and Hue (see: 1972 and the supply of LAW/TOWs to the ARVN).

Go back to GW One and the Iraqis spent months training and working up the Guard before crossing the Kuwaiti Border. I guess some brain in Whitehall is thinking back to the good old days and put 2 + 2 together and got Zemlyak's five and I just don't believe Russia has any need to launch an operation, whose objective has already been attained (Ukraine will never become a NATO member, because Russia would then invade to forestall that membership been ratified).
 
We've had attempted coups in Kiev(December), planned future coups in Kiev(British FO and some random ukranian MP), Embassies fleeing the Ukraine and arms shipments as if the North Vietnamese Army were closing the ring around Saigon, Pleiku and Hue (see: 1972 and the supply of LAW/TOWs to the ARVN).

Go back to GW One and the Iraqis spent months training and working up the Guard before crossing the Kuwaiti Border. I guess some brain in Whitehall is thinking back to the good old days and put 2 + 2 together and got Zemlyak's five and I just don't believe Russia has any need to launch an operation, whose objective has already been attained (Ukraine will never become a NATO member, because Russia would then invade to forestall that membership been ratified).
There must be intel to say possibly otherwise, if a nation such as Israel is planning to mass evacuate tens of thousands of people who aren't even Israeli citizens.
 

QRK2

LE
There must be intel to say possibly otherwise, if a nation such as Israel is planning to mass evacuate tens of thousands of people who aren't even Israeli citizens.

Any Jew automatically has Israeli citizenship under the law of return. Since 1970 this extends to their non-Jewish children, grandchildren, and spouses, and to the non-Jewish spouses of their children and grandchildren. Essentially, all Jews everywhere are Israeli citizens by right.

 

FEASG

LE
France remains largely nuclear powered, gas currently around 10% of their generation.
But EDF announced the other day that it had found cracks, in the cooling systems of several of its nuclear power plants, that would require them to be shut down , for repairs. Resulting in a 70% loss of power.
 

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