Russian Troop Movements Reported Near Ukraine

The pretext is being created all the time, for several years now. The 'poor, downtrodden, abused, helpless Russian minority populations' in the East side of the Baltic states (where they often form a local majority) must be protected. Purely on humanitarian grounds you see, it's not an invasion, honest. All these guys in green are locals.
Fortunately reality rather conflicts with this 'messaging'
 
Well technically I suppose, it’s a matter for the UN which is doing sod all about the mutual veto brigade. So discount them for all the use they are.But you see this is why I referred to the kanzlei issue, because if Vlad does decide to push, it’ll be very much in NATO’s hands. Paradoxically, if NATO don’t do anything, then Macron’s fit for purpose hissy fit will underpin him. On the other hand let’s suppose the Ukraine folds, will Germany have to act in it’s own interests. There’s nothing in the NATO rules prohibiting individual actions if Art 5 isn’t triggered That I can see. In principal I think the lights are going to on very late at night to get some talks going. Presumably exactly what Putin wants. Of course perhaps unbadged Ukrainian troops might turn out to be German. I wonder if Putin will do the same ?
Probably because the UN in effect is the mutual veto brigade and has no authority without them. That's largely because the mutual veto brigade set it up that way and won't allow it to be anything else.

Blame a chihuahua for not being a wolf if you like, but the blame ultimately lies with the people who bred it not to be.

In this instance though isnt the Russian veto irrelevant

Im sure as one of the belligerants it cannot vote (and therefore veto) resolutions on the matter.
 
You're contradicting yourself. If the vote cannot be trusted, how can you possibly know how big or small a part they are?

Regardless of the outcome if the vote, the Kosovo Albanians didn't need a free and fair referendum before we backed their right to secede with military force, did they? Why all of a sudden do equally long-established ethnic Russians?

Point taken, however, using what happened with Kosovo as a reason for accepting secession in another country may not be acceptable especially if one doesn't think what happened with Kosovo was the justifiable or correct solution.

Add to that, how do we know for sure how many of those wanting secession are actually in the majority given the conflicting reports. And that the move for secession was seemingly stoked by Russia and looked as though it would have died a death, or not even got off the ground, if not for them.
 
Fortunately reality rather conflicts with this 'messaging'

It only has to provide a fig-leaf, for hiding behind. There is no need to have an on-the-ground reality which matches the rhetoric, just-enough will be good-enough. And don't forget the 'locals' in East Ukraine a few years ago, volubly giving coherent interviews to the press about how downtrodden they were -- curiously, the same individuals were seen in several different towns, claiming to gullible journalists that they lived in the next street and were so happy to now be 'safe'....
 
The pretext is being created all the time, for several years now. The 'poor, downtrodden, abused, helpless Russian minority populations' in the East side of the Baltic states (where they often form a local majority) must be protected. Purely on humanitarian grounds you see, it's not an invasion, honest. All these guys in green are locals.
A pretext needs an act of violence and the Baltic States have long memories and Peter Hitchens was in Riga when the Russians last tried to provoke a reaction and they're are the last states I expect to act stupidly in relation to its big neighbour.
 
A pretext needs an act of violence and the Baltic States have long memories and Peter Hitchens was in Riga when the Russians last tried to provoke a reaction and they're are the last states I expect to act stupidly in relation to its big neighbour.
As I said, there is no need for an 'act of violence' to be real. A convenient Tonkin-incident style occurence can be created faily easily. There is a whole load of people mixing up reality and political-requirements.

Any incursion/peacekeeping would have the goal of breaking off a chunk of the East of the states, then stopping. Does Nato start all out war because a few small towns have 'locals' with guns in them, who threw out the police and the mayor? The political situation then becomes one of negotiations and Russia wins hugely, domestically speaking, and the Nato treaty deteoriates in quality and trustworthiness. This will be the aim, not a land grab of the whole country, instead the infamous 'salami-slicing'.
 
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No let up today (based on online videos) of Russian equipment moving west. We're looking now at up to two weeks of what seems to be a large build up.
Another video in this chap's feed shows what appears to be a Russian medical unit on the move.
I wonder when we'll see any lessening of movements, and what that will mean [other than that they are mainly all there :)]


And an interesting article about the same:

 
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however, using what happened with Kosovo as a reason for accepting secession in another country may not be acceptable
To whom and what gives them the right to dictate universal standards of acceptability, especially ones at variance with previous precedent?


And that the move for secession was seemingly stoked by Russia and looked as though it would have died a death, or not even got off the ground, if not for them.
I find it hard to believe that so many Donbassians could go from lukewarm/not interested to willing-to-die simply on Moscow's say so. Russia may well have exploited a grievance but they didn't manufacture it.
 
As I said, there is no need for an 'act of violence' to be real. A convenient Tonkin-incident style occurence can be created faily easily. There is a whole load of people mixing up reality and political-requirements.

Any incursion/peacekeeping would have the goal of breaking off a chunk of the East of the states, then stopping. Does Nato start all out war because a few small towns have 'locals' with guns in them, who threw out the police and the mayor? The political situation then becomes one of negotiations and Russia wins hugely, domestically speaking, and the Nato treaty deteoriates in quality and trustworthiness. This will be the aim, not a land grab of the whole country, instead the infamous 'salami-slicing'.
Easily, but in this day and age where everyone has a camera phone I think it impossible in the west. The Russians themselves have been burned twice by this in salisbury with the GRU agents caught on camera and the photographs of an SA-11 on the back of a trailer.

No, I think you need somebody on our side to miscalculate big style and someone like the Georgians under the deluded Sakashvili(whatshisname) to take a course of action which defied common sense and demonstrated how much some people believe our rhetoric and take it all at face value.
 
Rather than wondering, why not go look for some evidence?

A change is as good as a rest, after all.
You’ll forgive me but I think it’s a tad early for that. Besides evidence and China are sorta mutually exclusive in areas that matter At the moment. I was merely triggered by the Beeb report.
 

kimmi851

War Hero
That just shows the BBC don't understand what the policy was about. It was supposed to reduce the population and they planned for a blip in aging.

The key thing about a surplus of elderly people is that it's an inherently self-correcting problem. You just need to wait a few years.

They didn't allow for the male bias in the population and technology to encourage it - their surplus is in males who have limited hope for a family and no universal pension system so elderly support is only by male heirs who provide for them - female heirs are a drain and do not traditionally support their parents, male heirs are supposed to (if not too spoilt because of being only children), so the effect which was supposed to be a couple of generations looks far more wide reaching and destabilising with a lot of angry men and starving old people.
 
They didn't allow for the male bias in the population and technology to encourage it - their surplus is in males who have limited hope for a family and no universal pension system so elderly support is only by male heirs who provide for them - female heirs are a drain and do not traditionally support their parents, male heirs are supposed to (if not too spoilt because of being only children), so the effect which was supposed to be a couple of generations looks far more wide reaching and destabilising with a lot of angry men and starving old people.
Except that's not the way it's working out. My wife is an only child, her parents invested heavily in her education and if their own provisions don't prove sufficient then we'll help them in their old age.

It's not the first time even in recent history that Chinese societies have faced this problem - Taiwan's male population exploded almost overnight in 1947-49.
 
You’ll forgive me but I think it’s a tad early for that.
Not too early to arrive at a conclusion but too early to go looking for evidence to support or refute it?

No, that's wholly unforgiveable.
 
Not too early to arrive at a conclusion but too early to go looking for evidence to support or refute it?

No, that's wholly unforgiveable.
I haven’t jumped to any conclusions, merely asked a question. I don’t live in China, so how would I know what the average person there thinks? what we are told that average person thinks, rarely chimes with what they do.
 
Ukraine pleads for progress towards NATO membership:

Message to Ukraine; get your house in order first, and given internal divisions, corruption and external pressures, that's unlikely to happen any time soon.

'The United States continues to support Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic aspirations, while urging Kyiv to implement deep and comprehensive reforms to meet Western standards for NATO membership.

U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price made a respective statement at a briefing in Washington on Tuesday, April 6, according to an Ukrinform correspondent. "This [U.S.] administration is committed to ensuring that NATO's door remains open to aspirants when they are able to meet the commitments and obligations of membership and contribute to security in the Euro-Atlantic area," he said. He stressed that Washington affirms its "support for that open door policy that was expressed in the 2008 Bucharest declaration." "We stand by the right of each sovereign country to choose for itself whether it joins any treaty or alliance, and, of course, that does include NATO," Price said.

At the same time, he stressed that aspirant countries wishing to join NATO should meet the organization's standard for membership. "To that end, we continue to urge the Government of Ukraine to implement the deep, comprehensive, and timely reforms necessary to build a more stable, democratic, prosperous, and free country. We support Ukraine's efforts to advance the rule of law. We support reforms and economic growth, and we, of course, continue to support our partner Ukraine in the fight against Russian aggression," Price said.

In this context, he recalled that a number of high-ranking U.S. and Ukrainian officials, as well as the presidents of both countries, had telephone talks on these issues last week. "Again, we are fully supportive and affirm NATO's open door policy, and we continue to look forward to working closely with Ukraine on all of these reforms that are in train," Price said.


U.S. calls on Ukraine to implement deep reforms for NATO membership
 
From Twitter:


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No let up today (based on online videos) of Russian equipment moving west. We're looking now at up to two weeks of what seems to be a large build up.
Another video in this chap's feed shows what appears to be a Russian medical unit on the move.
I wonder when we'll see any lessening of movements, and what that will mean [other than that they are mainly all there :)]


And an interesting article about the same:


Speaking of equipment moves ...

'The U.S. has reportedly delivered three military cargoes to Ukraine in the last fortnight amid growing international demands for Russia to explain its troop build-up on the border with its neighbor.

'Over the last fortnight, U.S. military equipment has arrived in Ukraine. On March 25, 350 tonnes of cargo were delivered to Odessa by the ship Ocean Glory. The shipment included 35 Humvee SUVs, the agency Ukrinform reported. Local news outlets have reported further deliveries. On April 2, a U.S. Air Force C-17A Globemaster III military transport aircraft flew to Kyiv from the U.S. base in Ramstein, Germany, according to the Odessa newspaper Dumskaya. Two days later, another C-17A Globemaster III, which can carry 102 troops and 77 tons of cargo, landed in the western city of Lviv, the newspaper reported.

'At the beginning of March, the Department of Defense announced that the U.S. would give $125 million of military aid to Kyiv in the 2021 fiscal year to help preserve its territorial integrity, work better with NATO and "more effectively defend itself against Russian aggression." A further $150 million will be provided this fiscal year depending on the effectiveness of Ukraine's defense reforms, which are required by the National Defense Authorization Act. The funding comes as Ukraine's armed forces announced that they would undertake military drills with at least five NATO countries this year in an operation called Cossack Mace. Other drills involving the U.S., called Rapid Trident and Sea Breeze, are planned, Unian reported.

'Some observers have said Russia's military build-up is a plot to intimidate Zelenskiy and test the resolve of the Biden administration. The Atlantic Council think tank added that a military campaign could boost support for President Vladimir Putin, whose popularity has slumped ahead of Russian parliamentary elections in September. The think tank also pointed to a stepping-up of propaganda attacks on Kyiv by Kremlin-controlled media, in which they accuse the Ukrainian government of planning its own offensive. "It is now time for Washington to provide additional leadership by announcing conditional sanctions that would be levied on Russia if it escalates in Ukraine," said John Herbst, director of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center.'


U.S. demands Russia explain military build-up near Ukraine after sending hardware to Kyiv
 
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