• This is a stand-to for an incoming competition, one of our most expensive yet.
    Later this week we're going to be offering the opportunity to Win £270 Rab Neutrino Pro military down jacket
    Visit the thread at that link above and Watch it to be notified as soon as the competition goes live

Russian Surveillance Aircraft lost at sea off Syria

I'm sorry. Indeed I haven't asked you personally. However, I would like to answer the question myself.
So why Israel doesn't bomb Hezbollah in Lebanon but uses to bomb it in Syria?
In the case with Lebanon, Hezbollah would retaliate in sufficiently painful way for Israel. So Israeli-Lebanese border is relatively calm.
In the case with Syria Israel tries to weaken Syrian military forces and to provoke retaliation to unleash full scale bombing campaign.
So Hezbollah, Iranian forces in Syria are just an excuse.

Because they are bombing IRGC units in Syria.
 
Apologies if the same information has been posted or discussed previously, but came across this possible explanation as to the mistakes that arose leading to the shoot down:

A military expert explains what could have led Syria to shoot down a Russian warplane
I was with bits of it it right up until the last paragraph - Syrian incompetence, crap co-ordination etc......then, suddenly 'the Jews are to blame because they didn't file a flightplan with the puppet-master of their enemy until the last minute' - yep, sure, that's how it works...... :rolleyes:

We can’t speculate about a friend-or-foe identification system, because we don’t know if one was installed.
Yes you can, either:
The kit wasn't serviceable - in which case technically incompetent clowns
The kit wasn't fitted - in which case, as virtually every radar since CHL in 1940 came with some kind if IFF either they're lying or the kit is bargain-basement Amstrad crap
They didn't know how to interpret a radar picture - half-trained incompetent clowns that shouldn't be trusted to play 'Missile Command' on a Vic-20

Soviet maskirovka at it's.......best.....?
 
Last edited:
Finally, request No8:

Why do you keep changing your name on ARRSE @sunoficarus/@SOI/@meerkatz/@PhotEx?
Desinformatsiya?

From Zemlyaks link:
"But if Israel had warned Moscow earlier about its actions, [Russia] would have probably withdrawn its aircraft from the active combat zone. So indirect fault lies with the Israelis, as well".
The Izzies would have good reason not to tell anyone else about their intentions. Need to know principle, and a high level decision maker decided that the Russians didn't need to know. Further more the Izzies would not necessarily know the alleged gross incompetence of the Syrian AD.
In short sh1t happens.
 
Then perhaps the USA could become a democracy, stop being an international bully, learn to play nicely with any country and contemplate sorting the many problems it has at home, before becoming a power for good, rather than wanting to strut the world stage and recreate the glory days then America was great
The correction is charge-free.
 
I'm sorry. Indeed I haven't asked you personally. However, I would like to answer the question myself.
So why Israel doesn't bomb Hezbollah in Lebanon but uses to bomb it in Syria?
In the case with Lebanon, Hezbollah would retaliate in sufficiently painful way for Israel. So Israeli-Lebanese border is relatively calm.
There is currently ‘peace’, as much as there ever is. If/when Hz start again, they will be targeted
In the case with Syria Israel tries to weaken Syrian military forces and to provoke retaliation to unleash full scale bombing campaign.
Currently Israel seems to be striking Iranian (and their proxies), targets in Syria. As with the F16 shoot down, the Syrians are defending the Iranian targets, lobbing lots of missiles in the hope of hitting something. Unfortunately, they hit an IL-20 on this occasion.
So Hezbollah, Iranian forces in Syria are just an excuse.
Not really.
 
There is currently ‘peace’, as much as there ever is. If/when Hz start again, they will be targeted

Currently Israel seems to be striking Iranian (and their proxies), targets in Syria. As with the F16 shoot down, the Syrians are defending the Iranian targets, lobbing lots of missiles in the hope of hitting something. Unfortunately, they hit an IL-20 on this occasion.

Not really.
We have to agree to disagree.
Israel in fact continues its war with Syria and will continue until a much more powerful force would force Israel to stop it.
 
We have to agree to disagree.
As it was, is and ‘highly likely’ always will be.
Israel in fact continues its war with Syria and will continue until a much more powerful force would force Israel to stop it.
If Israel was deliberately targeting Assad’s forces, rather than reacting to them lobbing every SAM they can in the air in the hope of hitting something, you’d have a point.
 
I was with bits of it it right up until the last paragraph - Syrian incompetence, crap co-ordination etc......then, suddenly 'the Jews are to blame because they didn't file a flightplan with the puppet-master of their enemy until the last minute' - yep, sure, that's how it works...... :rolleyes:
Yes, I also didn't see how they got throw that in as well. To me it didn't seem to follow the line of reasoning in the article.
 
The correction is charge-free.
So which one are you today? Every time it's the Vicky Pollard defence - yeah, but , no, but amerika.....' This is, as I have to keep reminding you, about Russia's ****-ups and crimes, do stay focused - it's not all blaming the French and/or Jews you know.....


Say "hi" to Tonya and don't forget to clean the tea-bar when you go off shift, last night you left it in a disgusting state
 
Last edited:
No, it's a propaganda piece that follows the party line that its time to blame the Joos for Russian and Syrian incompetence, can't you drop your Russophilia for one day?

And you believe the line about no IFF? Gullible or wilfully ignorant? Do you want to buy a bridge?
 
Last edited:
No, it's a propaganda piece that follows the party line that its time to blame the Joos for Russian and Syrian incompetence, can't you drop your Russophilia for one day?

And you believe the line about no IFF? Gullible or wilfully ignorant? Do you want to buy a bridge?
In fairness, one can be interested in the technical aspects of the shooting down (as a layman in that respect, in my case) without at the same time accepting Russia's case about Israeli guilt. Most of us appreciate that Israel is just a convenient excuse, primarily for domestic consumption, for Russia. It is even possible that Russia has, behind the scenes, made it clear to Israel that it has, again for domestic reasons, to be seen to be upset about this, despite the main cause of the incident being known.
 
...And what really Washington could do? Unleash WW3?...
I would suggest it would be Moscow starting a wider, potentially global conflict with the US and NATO if you attacked Israel.

The US would not - under any circumstances - ignore Russian aggression against Israel on the scale you describe. Nor do I believe would NATO and many neighbouring nations.

...The key word here is probably. And what if not?...
Damage would be inflicted. However, the IDF is a regional superpower that is self-evidentially capable of engaging in a prolonged campaign against conventional and CBRN attacks. That includes a pretty impressive amount of operational resilience.

Bar a pre-emotive nuclear strike, which would entail response in kind from Israel, I cannot envisage any way Russia would be able to put the IDF out of business.

...In this case Moscow would bomb not only military airports but all military objects to weaken Israel military. Be sure that good Israeli neigbours would become evil overnight and invade Israel from different directions...
Don’t be naive. Russia would be unable to generate the sortie and BM generation rate to target Israel conventionally through NATO airspace or that largely controlled by the US.

Likewise, nobody would be invading Israel, least of all Hezbollah. Indeed, I suspect Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and certainly Jordan would roll in behind them to balance any Iranian opportunism.

...Any military operation has to be carefully planned and Russia is quite able to resolve any problems that could emerge...
I disagree. This is not your backyard and Israel is the biggest dog in the neighbourhood. You’d have to fight your way through a NATO dominated Med to reach them.

...what if Russia would have a new leader?
Well, unless that clown Zhirinovski got elected, I doubt he or she would be more aggressive than Putin.

The difference is Putin balances increasing brawn with brain. He’s in for the long game and knows attacking Israel would be both unjustified and strategically dumb.

Regards,
MM
 
The poster terminal is famous for his love of all things Russian
He is, I reckon, just balanced in his view of the situation.
Edit: if we keep portraying the Russians as muppets, liars, etc and not reflecting on what they are doing and why we are going to end up in serious trouble as a region (Europe).
And whilst I am not a fan of Putin, nor down on our own capabilities, we are mocking Russian use of capabilities which we don't ourselves posses any longer (save for very short range SAM and for systems not yet in service).
 
Last edited:
Yes, I also didn't see how they got throw that in as well. To me it didn't seem to follow the line of reasoning in the article.
Well, let's look at what the author actually said in his conclusion.

The author said that it wasn't Israel who shot down the plane, it was a Syrian combat crew who didn't understand how to operate the equipment properly.
Whose version of events is more believable? Russia’s or Israel’s? Well, let’s start with the question: Who shot down the plane? It wasn’t Israel, after all, but a Syrian combat crew that made a mistake, didn’t understand what it was doing, and destroyed the wrong target.
He goes on to point out however that if Israel had informed the Russians of their plans, the Russians could have arranged for their plane to be elsewhere. I will add that there is an agreement between Israel and Russia to do exactly that, so it is not unreasonable of the Russians to depend upon the Israelis to follow their side of the agreement between them. How much warning the Russians actually had in this instance is not something the author addresses, as it wasn't what he was writing about.
But if Israel had warned Moscow earlier about its actions, [Russia] would have probably withdrawn its aircraft from the active combat zone.
Hence, he says that Israel's failure to provide sufficient notice was an indirect contributing factor. Nowhere does he say that Israel bears a primary responsibility.
So indirect fault lies with the Israelis, as well.
The above was not only his conclusion, he also takes great pains to lay the primary blame at the door of the Syrians in his introduction.
All this happened because Syria’s combat crews didn’t actually know the situation in the airspace above the battlefield. And it was of course due to the fact that they committed a whole series of live-fire mistakes. Most importantly, when acquiring a target, they should have carefully determined its nature and statehood. Apparently, this wasn’t done. They also should have determined its coordinates, and obviously they didn’t do this, either. Carrying out live fire without this data is impossible.
In the above where he says "Carrying out live fire without this data is impossible" he clearly means "cannot do it correctly".

The bulk of the article focuses on the characteristics of the S-200 system which mean that it should not be operated by poorly trained crews. The features are there which could have prevented this accident, but they were likely either not used or were turned off.

He also emphasizes that we lack sufficient information to come to any definite conclusion, but the primary cause was unlikely to have been anything other than a mistake by the people in the Syrian missile combat crew.
At the end of the day, we simply lack sufficient data to form any serious hypothesis. In fact, other than anti-aircraft fire and the plane’s destruction, we know nothing. But this was likely a mistake by specific people on the combat crew: the group’s commander, the target-acquisition officer, the guidance operator, and the launch officer. The equipment, as a rule, was probably not at fault.
 
I would like to repeat that it is imaginary scenario. The new Russian leader after propper warning orders to bomb Israeli military airports with very simple condition to stop it - terminate Israeli air-raids in Syria.
I would suggest it would be Moscow starting a wider, potentially global conflict with the US and NATO if you attacked Israel.
Russia just now is in a conflict with the USA and NATO. So there is nothing new. There are sanctions, expulsions of diplomats, What the West could do if Russia would bomb Israeli military airports? Israel at time bombed Gaza and what had been done? Nothing. So why the reaction should be different? I tell you (maybe bitter) truth. The West would urge Israel to stop air-raids in Syria to calm the conflict.
The US would not - under any circumstances - ignore Russian aggression against Israel on the scale you describe.
But what Washington could do in this imaginary situation? In fact nothing. Washington with support of its numerous allies was unable to remove Assad from power. Maybe you believe that Washington is almighty?
Nor do I believe would NATO and many neighbouring nations.
As maximum it would end by empty words as in the cases with Georgia, Crimea, Donbass.
What HMG could do? Nothing.
.
Damage would be inflicted. However, the IDF is a regional superpower...
... in comparison with Syria, Egypt - yes. But in comparison with Russia it is a small state with bounded resources, with supplies routes that can be easily cut. In the case of military conflict tankers with oil would be legitimate targets...
...that is self-evidentially capable of engaging in a prolonged campaign against conventional and CBRN attacks.
It is impossible without fuel. Meanwhile the Palestinians would use this situation and Hezbollah as well.
Bar a pre-emotive nuclear strike, which would entail response in kind from Israel, I cannot envisage any way Russia would be able to put the IDF out of business.
Without nuclear weapons, step by step Israeli military potential could be reduced to almost zero level
Don’t be naive. Russia would be unable to generate the sortie and BM generation rate to target Israel conventionally through NATO airspace or that largely controlled by the US.
At time Israel used to bomb Lebanon at will. Hezbollah retaliated by missiles. As a result the last Lebanese war was unleashed. After it Israel dare not to bomb Lebanon because it understands language of force. So why Hezbollah was able to force Israel to stop air-raids in Lebanon but Russia is unable to stop air-raids in Syria?
Likewise, nobody would be invading Israel, least of all Hezbollah. Indeed, I suspect Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and certainly Jordan would roll in behind them to balance any Iranian opportunism.
How many devoted friends Israel has. With such friends it doesn't need enemies.
I disagree. This is not your backyard and Israel is the biggest dog in the neighbourhood. You’d have to fight your way through a NATO dominated Med to reach them.
Israel is really a small (but of course very influental) country, but you hugely overestimates its capabilities.
Well, unless that clown Zhirinovski got elected, I doubt he or she would be more aggressive than Putin.

The difference is Putin balances increasing brawn with brain. He’s in for the long game and knows attacking Israel would be both unjustified and strategically dumb.
Mr.Zhirinovsky btw is half-Jewish himself. He is political clown and will not be elected.
As for moron Putin then he would appear in a very difficult situation if during the next air-raid even one Russian serviceman would be killed under Israeli bomb or missile.

Conclusion (of course you probably disagree with it) - it would be wise for Israel to stop air-raids in Syria at least in the near future.
 
Last edited:

Similar threads

Latest Threads

Top