Russia military strength -new reports

Do you agree with mr.Hammond that Russia is a threat to everyone on world stage?

  • Absolutely

    Votes: 28 33.3%
  • Mainly agree

    Votes: 14 16.7%
  • Rather agree

    Votes: 9 10.7%
  • Not to everyone.Russia is not a threat to Iran, China, Brazil and many others

    Votes: 21 25.0%
  • Threat? Yes, threat to everyone imperialist in Washington, London...

    Votes: 4 4.8%
  • Stupid statement not worth to be commented

    Votes: 13 15.5%
  • Absolutely disagree

    Votes: 4 4.8%
  • Who is mr.Hammond?

    Votes: 11 13.1%

  • Total voters
    84
As you may see Russia is in a better position.
No, I don't see.

Both Russia and Saudi Arabia still make a profit on a barrel of oil at $40. Saudia makes quite a bit more.

The problem is not in the profit per barrel per se, the problem is what the governments planned to do with those profits.

Both Russia and Saudi Arabia have economies and budgets based upon an assumed price of approx $100 per barrel income. Neither budget is sustainable in the long term without major modification. However, what does Russia spend all that money on compared to Saudi Arabia? Or, to put it another way, who gets hurt the most by budget costs?

I suspect Saudi Arabia could halve it's annual budget by deferring spending for a wee while and little turbulence would be seen other than some delays to university building and school refurbishment etc.

On the otherhand, you're screwed....
Eg.
That means the government will provide almost no compensation to the country's 42.7 million pensioners to offset the effects of inflation — which could reach a total of 20 percent this year and next.

The government plans to dig deeper into citizens' pockets by slashing 40 percent of federal spending on housing and utilities, even while raising the payments required for capital repairs to apartment buildings.

Leaders also plan to cut federal spending on health and education by an average of 10 percent while keeping military spending — which has increased rapidly in recent years — practically untouched, with reductions of only 1.8 percent.


Future pensioners are faring no better. For three consecutive years the authorities have dipped into pension savings in order to finance current expenditures and plan to withdraw or "freeze" a staggering 350 billion rubles ($5.7 billion) of those funds in 2016.

The government also plans to collect another 330 billion rubles ($5.3 billion) from oil companies. With oil prices low, those companies will have to cut back their investment programs while hiking gasoline prices for an already impoverished population.
 
It costs Saudi Arabia about $10 to bring a barrel of oil to market. So, at $40 a barrel they're still making $30 profit.

How much does it cost Russia to bring a barrel to market? And what else can they sell? Gas, I suppose, but the price of that is pegged to the price of oil.....
This has KSA and Russia both on around $105 for break even. KSA can and will cut procurement and spending quickly if it feels it has to.

Here are the break-even oil prices for 13 of the world's biggest producers
 

Miep

Old-Salt
This is the sensible part of the site, if you are not capable of arguing your case without to getting all sweary then you probably won't last long here.

After accusing me to be a russian mouthpiece which is as fitting as calling McCarthy a commielover given my posting history here?

Beeing called a pro russian ist just a new experience for me...

So just in case you like to discuss the actual topic, why dont you tell me which nato forces are supposed to stop a russian assault in the first 72h and the first week?
 
In ~ end 2016 the Natos eastern border will face 2 heavy russian armies, the 1st tank army and the 20th combined army.

Could someone be so kind to tell me which Nato forces are supposed to oppose them within, lets say 72h.
HMS Revenge ?
 
After accusing me to be a russian mouthpiece which is as fitting as calling McCarthy a commielover given my posting history here?

Beeing called a pro russian ist just a new experience for me...

So just in case you like to discuss the actual topic, why dont you tell me which nato forces are supposed to stop a russian assault in the first 72h and the first week?
You have the mistaken belief that your cut and paste is accurate and that Russia is able to make use of every one of those vehicles. A quick search online brings up plenty of vehicle graveyards where mighty Russian tanks are rotting. You then assume Russia has the capability to bring all these vehicles to the border without anybody noticing a massive armoured column waiting for the off. You then believe that Russia would actually bring all these vehicles to one border leaving the rest of the country undefended.

You make a lot of assumptions based from some figures you copied and pasted with no actual context or bearing with reality.
 
All this business of quoting numbers of jets, tanks, ships etc is all very well, we've heard it loads of times before, back in the Cold War days and also GWI and GWII. The statistics overlook some very important details, eg the condition of the kit in question, the training and skill of those operating it, the quality of the NCOs and also that of the officers and last but not least the moral of the troops. Prior to GWI we heard about all the massive amounts of gear that Saddam had, that turned out to be a classic case of all the gear but no idea. The Soviet forces in East Germany were not without their problems either. So what's the state of play with current Russian forces? If the above mentioned factors are not up to scratch then they can have ten times as much gear as Nato, but they won't be doing much with it.
 
If that's the case, why is Russia running a budget deficit of 3% of GDP?

INTERVIEW-Russia risks higher budget deficit, must make choices - Finance Minister


With foreign currency reserves likely to run out inside a year....

Wordsmith
Budget deficit up to 3% during crisis times? It is not something special. Let's look at France
France Government Budget | 1995-2015 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast
France recorded a Government Budget deficit equal to 4 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2014. Government Budget in France averaged -3.73 percent of GDP from 1995 until 2014, reaching an all time high of -1.50 percent of GDP in 2000 and a record low of -7.50 percent of GDP in 2009.

As for the UK then look at this picture


No one would deny that there are tough crisis times but Russia, it economy will survive.
Btw, previously Russian budged had proficit.
Russia Government Budget | 1994-2015 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast
Government Budget in Russia averaged 1.63 percent of GDP from 1994 until 2014, reaching an all time high of 9.88 percent of GDP in 2005 and a record low of -7.90 percent of GDP in 2009. Government Budget in Russia is reported by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation.
 
The Ukraine has done reasonably well holding off Russia so far. Oh sorry I mean those pesky rebels with no Russian involvement at all.

Russia has over extended itself and revealed it has neither the desire or the capability to go rampaging through Europe.
But Russia hasn't gone in fully gloves off so far. E.g. no involvement of the Russian air force, no landings on the Black sea coast, no large numbers of Russian army units operating openly. Putin still tries to pretend that he is not really involved.
 
D

Deleted 20555

Guest
Oil at $35 per barrel and vlad needs a price in excess of $105?

Oh dear...

Not all weapons go bang tovarisch...
 
You have the mistaken belief that your cut and paste is accurate and that Russia is able to make use of every one of those vehicles. A quick search online brings up plenty of vehicle graveyards where mighty Russian tanks are rotting. You then assume Russia has the capability to bring all these vehicles to the border without anybody noticing a massive armoured column waiting for the off. You then believe that Russia would actually bring all these vehicles to one border leaving the rest of the country undefended.

You make a lot of assumptions based from some figures you copied and pasted with no actual context or bearing with reality.
Yes but could they take the Falklands ?
 

Miep

Old-Salt
You have the mistaken belief that your cut and paste is accurate and that Russia is able to make use of every one of those vehicles. A quick search online brings up plenty of vehicle graveyards where mighty Russian tanks are rotting. You then assume Russia has the capability to bring all these vehicles to the border without anybody noticing a massive armoured column waiting for the off. You then believe that Russia would actually bring all these vehicles to one border leaving the rest of the country undefended.

You make a lot of assumptions based from some figures you copied and pasted with no actual context or bearing with reality.
So your argument is basicly "i saw a russian tank rotting on a tank graveyard"
I suppose the US has ceased to be a superpower then aswell...


And for the ability to bring those to the border, well, id like to quote Stoltenberg:
"My biggest fear is that one of those russians exercises may turn real"

Russia has conducted multiple exercises last 2 years which were nearly
indistinguishably from the real thing.
 
Average Russian would ask - Where are they?
In case you missed the humour
Vampire was pointing out that things get noticed X doesn't = Y as Its oft the case with Falklands MK2 that everything happens in a vacuum, so all preparations all new equipment elicits no response. I threw that one in there.
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
Budget deficit up to 3% during crisis times? It is not something special. Let's look at France
France Government Budget | 1995-2015 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast


As for the UK then look at this picture


No one would deny that there are tough crisis times but Russia, it economy will survive.
Btw, previously Russian budged had proficit.
Russia Government Budget | 1994-2015 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast

And a sensible post deserves a sensible answer.

Yes, the Russian economy was doing fairly well until the oil price went south. Actually ran a budget surplus for a long time - which is better than the UK did. But the Russian economy was a one trick pony - helped along by Vlad starting to throw his weight around and overspending on the military. So he got the double whammy of an oil price fall and sanctions.

The UK economy is not in great shape, but it is recovering. The deficit is still far too high though and Osborne has chickened out of getting a real grip on the problem. It won't be balanced by 2020. The French economy is a basket case and getting steadily worse.

Of the three economies, the UK's is probably in the best shape - but that's not saying a lot. The Russian economy might improve if the oil price recovers. But I don't see that. Frackers can recover oil at $60 a barrel and make a profit. The French economy is slowly seizing up and can only get worse.

I don't think you can talk about which economy is in the best shape - you can only talk about which is in the least worst shape. Which is the UK's. Although we're still spending money we haven't got.

Wordsmith
 
So your argument is basicly "i saw a russian tank rotting on a tank graveyard"
I suppose the US has ceased to be a superpower then aswell...


And for the ability to bring those to the border, well, id like to quote Stoltenberg:
"My biggest fear is that one of those russians exercises may turn real"

Russia has conducted multiple exercises last 2 years which were nearly
indistinguishably from the real thing.
We best surrender now then, just in case.
 
But Russia hasn't gone in fully gloves off so far. E.g. no involvement of the Russian air force, no landings on the Black sea coast, no large numbers of Russian army units operating openly. Putin still tries to pretend that he is not really involved.
Possibly because he doesn't want the rest of the world to know he cannot actually do it.
 
So your argument is basicly "i saw a russian tank rotting on a tank graveyard"
I suppose the US has ceased to be a superpower then aswell...


And for the ability to bring those to the border, well, id like to quote Stoltenberg:
"My biggest fear is that one of those russians exercises may turn real"

Russia has conducted multiple exercises last 2 years which were nearly
indistinguishably from the real thing.
You have completely missed the point, Russia has current equipment that is supposed to be in use rusting away because they cannot afford to maintain it and run it. These hulks are included in this much vaunted numbers you copied and pasted.
 
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