Russia begins an offensive in Ukraine

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by KGB_resident, Aug 11, 2009.

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  1. ...on the diplomatic front.

    How the West would react?

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8195194.stm

    Mr.Yushchenko is a "lame duck" and hasn't chances to be re-elected. But there are "dark horses' who could continue pro-western policy being elected. So it is critically important to stimulate Ukrainian nationalists to vote namely for the current president.

    ...modern polit-technologies in action...
     
  2. sounds like the next call of duty storyline....
     
  3. The West has to react. But how? In the case with Georgia it was a total surrender. Military option was not even regarded seriously.

    NATO troops could be sent to Crimea (for drills of course) to create a new geopolitical configuration. But who could exclude a tragic unfortunate accident with Russian missile or bomb?
     
  4. BrunoNoMedals

    BrunoNoMedals LE Reviewer

    Nah, they had Russian Nationalists in the last one. It's got to be the Koreans this time around.
     
  5. If Russia decides it want the Crimea and the DonBass they will get them, and there isn't a damn thing the Ukrainian army could do if the Moscow Military District came over the border mob handed and bugger all we could do either. A simple look at the ORBAT shows you the reality on the ground.
     
  6. strange accusation. wouldnt you want to bypass a supplier that cuts you off? crying because he doesnt have a monopoly of energy in eastern europe and that his "hardball" tactics just caused them to be ignored. who is he to choose another countries supplier?

    Ukrainian port? Ukrainian choice.

    what country wouldnt want to rid the influence of its ex-masters? it would be like britain complaining that the egyptians didnt speak english on a national basis.

    just sounds like more bitching from russia that fewer people in the old sphere are listening to it.

    quite realisation that he believes that modern russia should have the same influence as the USSR at its height? and a bit of laughter.
     
  7. Pres. Medvedev likely reffered to the EU sponsored project to modernise Ukrainian gas-pipes system where Russia was not invited. It is not correspond to the Treaty of friendship between Russia and Ukraine signed 10 years ago.

    According to the treaty I mentined Russia has right to lease the port until 2017. It's interesting has Cuba right to create problems for the base in Guantanamo? Cuban port? Cuban choice.

    Egypt? Ukrainian capital Kiev is a Russian speaking city along with most of other big cities. For about a half of Ukrainian population Russian is native language. It is a matter of human rights.

    It is not that simple.
     
  8. I would unless you are saying that either The Air Force, The Army or the Strategic Rocket Forces are capable of making a mistake of that magnitude - which would be scary.

    The West didn't surrender in Georgia - it didn't get involved at all and if you recall many of us on the site argued at Shake a Willys' stupidity in the first place.

    And why should we get involved in Georgia - Russia has already got a bad press but never mind - at least Nicaragua has recognised South Ossetia. :D
     
  9. Sergei,

    Would you want a country that had previously held you to ransom over gas supplies in the middle of winter to be the same people to renew those very gas pipelines?

    When I'm in Kiev (about once a month on business), the only language I hear is Russian, so scare stories about Russian being pushed down (like Welsh used to be) are absolute tosh.

    Russia is a political bully, which is a reflection of the Russian psyche. Ukraine has had a belly full of this, and is seeking new friends. In fairness to Russia, Ukraine has not been good at paying its bills (rather hard when the price of steel collapses and your economy shrinks by more than 20%). However Ukraine knows that accepting Russian money is like accepting protection from the mafia: the demands get worse every year until they take over the business.

    The level of corruption in Ukraine is worse the further east you go: thanks to the Russian influence. The EU and USA of course want Ukraine on their "side" and are playing nice to Ukraine. Russia would do well to emulate this and treat their neighbours nicely and keep them onside, rather than forcing their neighbours to look elsewhere thanks to poor behaviour on the part of Russia.

    Just my biased little view.
     
  10. By the 'West' really I mean Washington. Our American friends loudly supported (on words) their Georgian puppet. There were American military instructors, common war games...

    As for Ukraine then the West (in the meaning that I suggest) tries to influence Ukrainian politics. But...

    Now polit technologies are being used on the huge scale. It is just only an example.

    Former speaker of Ukrainian parliament Arseniy Yatsenyuk is young, good speaking and West oriented. How it is possible to block his aspirations to the presidency?

    http://www.kyivpost.com/nation/46663

    What do you think mr.Yatseniuk did? First of all he tried to deny that he is Jewish.

    It should be said that the most Western part of Ukraine is rather pro-Russian because local Ukrainians were ordered to be called Ukrainians by Stalin. Really they are Rusins (or sub-Carpathian Ruthenians).

    I'm sure that it is not the final attraction in Ukrainian political circus.
     
  11. Em, I don't think that anyone more than about 50km from the Russian border is in much danger from the might of the Moscow Military District. Also, I wouldn't put too much credence into their orbat wiring diagrams. Given that they spend far, far less on Defence than we do, and we know that we don't spend nearly enough, is there Army, which is approximately 10 times the size of our own, really going to be well equipped?

    whf
     
  12. It is not biased one. I agree with many your points. Now Moscow tries hard to strengthen its influence in Ukraine using all means at her disposal. Recently Russia's Patriarch visited Ukraine (all its parts) and called for the unity of Orthodox Christians.

    Pres.Yushchenko tried (and failed) to block his arrival to the city of Rovno in Western Ukraine.
     
  13. Its strange how - given its virtually impossible for a foreigner of any nationality to obtain Russian resident status - Moscow is full of Ossetians, Georgians, Ukrainians and others bearing brand-new Russian passports.....
     

  14. Much of their spending goes on keeping the Moscow and Leningrad Military Districts up to snuff. They would tear the Ukraine a new ******** if they came over the border.

    Ukraine defence budget barely covers the cost of wages, even their own minister admits their armed forces are in deep decline with much equipment no longer combat worthy and their navy is all but defunct now. Add in a largely pro Russian majority in the areas of interest and a war with Russia would be short, sharp and rather painful for Ukraine.
     
  15. Indeed. I have no doubt that the Moscow District could comfortably take on Ukraine, my point was that I am not equally convinced that we (the UK) should be quaking in our boots about them. I wouldn't put money on us if we were invading Russia but equally I wouldn't bet on them seeing off too many countries in an away fixture beyond their own immediate borders.

    whf