Russia begins an offensive in Ukraine

#1
...on the diplomatic front.

How the West would react?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8195194.stm

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has made a scathing attack on Ukraine's president, accusing him of "anti-Russian" behaviour.
...
Mr Medvedev said he would delay sending a new ambassador to Kiev until relations improved.

Ukraine's President Viktor Yushchenko has forged close links with the EU, US and Nato since coming to power in 2004.

He is expected to run for re-election in Ukraine in January.
...
Mr Medvedev commented on a letter he had sent to Mr Yushchenko recently, which he said was "no routine matter".

He accused Mr Yushchenko of having supplied Ukrainian weapons to the Georgian forces who "killed civilians and Russian peacekeepers in Tskhinvali" during the South Ossetia conflict a year ago.

He also accused Mr Yushchenko of bypassing Russia in Ukrainian energy deals with the EU "concerning deliveries of our Russian gas".

Mr Medvedev said the Ukrainian authorities had created problems for the Black Sea Fleet, based in the Crimean port of Sevastopol, in southern Ukraine.

He also accused the Yushchenko administration of driving the Russian language out of Ukrainian media, education and culture, and of trying to rewrite history.

Mr Medvedev said he hoped the situation would return to normal under a new Ukrainian leadership. The BBC's correspondent in Kiev says this was a thinly-veiled reference to Ukraine's presidential election, set for 17 January.
Mr.Yushchenko is a "lame duck" and hasn't chances to be re-elected. But there are "dark horses' who could continue pro-western policy being elected. So it is critically important to stimulate Ukrainian nationalists to vote namely for the current president.

...modern polit-technologies in action...
 
#3
The West has to react. But how? In the case with Georgia it was a total surrender. Military option was not even regarded seriously.

NATO troops could be sent to Crimea (for drills of course) to create a new geopolitical configuration. But who could exclude a tragic unfortunate accident with Russian missile or bomb?
 

BrunoNoMedals

LE
Kit Reviewer
#4
Dollsteeth said:
sounds like the next call of duty storyline....
Nah, they had Russian Nationalists in the last one. It's got to be the Koreans this time around.
 
#5
If Russia decides it want the Crimea and the DonBass they will get them, and there isn't a damn thing the Ukrainian army could do if the Moscow Military District came over the border mob handed and bugger all we could do either. A simple look at the ORBAT shows you the reality on the ground.
 
#6
He also accused Mr Yushchenko of bypassing Russia in Ukrainian energy deals with the EU "concerning deliveries of our Russian gas".
strange accusation. wouldnt you want to bypass a supplier that cuts you off? crying because he doesnt have a monopoly of energy in eastern europe and that his "hardball" tactics just caused them to be ignored. who is he to choose another countries supplier?

Mr Medvedev said the Ukrainian authorities had created problems for the Black Sea Fleet, based in the Crimean port of Sevastopol, in southern Ukraine.
Ukrainian port? Ukrainian choice.

He also accused the Yushchenko administration of driving the Russian language out of Ukrainian media, education and culture, and of trying to rewrite history.
what country wouldnt want to rid the influence of its ex-masters? it would be like britain complaining that the egyptians didnt speak english on a national basis.

just sounds like more bitching from russia that fewer people in the old sphere are listening to it.

How the West would react?
quite realisation that he believes that modern russia should have the same influence as the USSR at its height? and a bit of laughter.
 
#7
Toxicseagull said:
He also accused Mr Yushchenko of bypassing Russia in Ukrainian energy deals with the EU "concerning deliveries of our Russian gas".
strange accusation. wouldnt you want to bypass a supplier that cuts you off? crying because he doesnt have a monopoly of energy in eastern europe lol. who is he to choose another countries supplier?
Pres. Medvedev likely reffered to the EU sponsored project to modernise Ukrainian gas-pipes system where Russia was not invited. It is not correspond to the Treaty of friendship between Russia and Ukraine signed 10 years ago.

Toxicseagull said:
Mr Medvedev said the Ukrainian authorities had created problems for the Black Sea Fleet, based in the Crimean port of Sevastopol, in southern Ukraine.
Ukrainian port? Ukrainian choice.
According to the treaty I mentined Russia has right to lease the port until 2017. It's interesting has Cuba right to create problems for the base in Guantanamo? Cuban port? Cuban choice.

Toxicseagull said:
He also accused the Yushchenko administration of driving the Russian language out of Ukrainian media, education and culture, and of trying to rewrite history.
what country wouldnt want to rid the influence of its ex-masters? it would be like britain complaining that egyptians didnt speak english on a national basis.
Egypt? Ukrainian capital Kiev is a Russian speaking city along with most of other big cities. For about a half of Ukrainian population Russian is native language. It is a matter of human rights.

Toxicseagull said:
just sounds like more bitching from russia that fewer people in the old sphere are listening to it.
It is not that simple.
 
#8
KGB_resident said:
The West has to react. But how? In the case with Georgia it was a total surrender. Military option was not even regarded seriously.

NATO troops could be sent to Crimea (for drills of course) to create a new geopolitical configuration. But who could exclude a tragic unfortunate accident with Russian missile or bomb?
I would unless you are saying that either The Air Force, The Army or the Strategic Rocket Forces are capable of making a mistake of that magnitude - which would be scary.

The West didn't surrender in Georgia - it didn't get involved at all and if you recall many of us on the site argued at Shake a Willys' stupidity in the first place.

And why should we get involved in Georgia - Russia has already got a bad press but never mind - at least Nicaragua has recognised South Ossetia. :D
 
#9
Sergei,

Would you want a country that had previously held you to ransom over gas supplies in the middle of winter to be the same people to renew those very gas pipelines?

When I'm in Kiev (about once a month on business), the only language I hear is Russian, so scare stories about Russian being pushed down (like Welsh used to be) are absolute tosh.

Russia is a political bully, which is a reflection of the Russian psyche. Ukraine has had a belly full of this, and is seeking new friends. In fairness to Russia, Ukraine has not been good at paying its bills (rather hard when the price of steel collapses and your economy shrinks by more than 20%). However Ukraine knows that accepting Russian money is like accepting protection from the mafia: the demands get worse every year until they take over the business.

The level of corruption in Ukraine is worse the further east you go: thanks to the Russian influence. The EU and USA of course want Ukraine on their "side" and are playing nice to Ukraine. Russia would do well to emulate this and treat their neighbours nicely and keep them onside, rather than forcing their neighbours to look elsewhere thanks to poor behaviour on the part of Russia.

Just my biased little view.
 
#10
rickshaw-major said:
KGB_resident said:
The West has to react. But how? In the case with Georgia it was a total surrender. Military option was not even regarded seriously.

NATO troops could be sent to Crimea (for drills of course) to create a new geopolitical configuration. But who could exclude a tragic unfortunate accident with Russian missile or bomb?
I would unless you are saying that either The Air Force, The Army or the Strategic Rocket Forces are capable of making a mistake of that magnitude - which would be scary.

The West didn't surrender in Georgia - it didn't get involved at all and if you recall many of us on the site argued at Shake a Willys' stupidity in the first place.

And why should we get involved in Georgia - Russia has already got a bad press but never mind - at least Nicaragua has recognised South Ossetia. :D
By the 'West' really I mean Washington. Our American friends loudly supported (on words) their Georgian puppet. There were American military instructors, common war games...

As for Ukraine then the West (in the meaning that I suggest) tries to influence Ukrainian politics. But...

Now polit technologies are being used on the huge scale. It is just only an example.

Former speaker of Ukrainian parliament Arseniy Yatsenyuk is young, good speaking and West oriented. How it is possible to block his aspirations to the presidency?

http://www.kyivpost.com/nation/46663

As reported, Mayor of Uzhgorod Ratushniak is alleged to have beaten a girl campaigning for Arseniy Yatseniuk's Front of Changes initiative. The 21-year-old activist of the Front for Change, Natalia Butrymko, said that Ratushniak approached the organization's campaign tent in downtown Uzhgorod on August 6 demanding that he be shown permission documents for setting up the tent. She said that after she had asked him to introduce himself, he destroyed the camp, started insulting her, then grabbed her by the throat and pushed her to the ground.

Earlier, while commenting on the activities of the Front for Change initiative, the Uzhgorod mayor said: "Impudent Jew Yatseniuk, who was successfully serving to thieves, who are at power in Ukraine, is using criminal money to plow ahead towards Ukraine's presidency." Besides, Ratushniak said: "Criminal Jew Yatseniuk has apparently decided that these are the elections to a village council somewhere in Israel. So, using criminal money he gathered drug traffickers and smugglers and without the permission of the city council is showering our city with the garbage."
What do you think mr.Yatseniuk did? First of all he tried to deny that he is Jewish.

It should be said that the most Western part of Ukraine is rather pro-Russian because local Ukrainians were ordered to be called Ukrainians by Stalin. Really they are Rusins (or sub-Carpathian Ruthenians).

I'm sure that it is not the final attraction in Ukrainian political circus.
 
#11
Oil_Slick said:
If Russia decides it want the Crimea and the DonBass they will get them, and there isn't a damn thing the Ukrainian army could do if the Moscow Military District came over the border mob handed and bugger all we could do either. A simple look at the ORBAT shows you the reality on the ground.
Em, I don't think that anyone more than about 50km from the Russian border is in much danger from the might of the Moscow Military District. Also, I wouldn't put too much credence into their orbat wiring diagrams. Given that they spend far, far less on Defence than we do, and we know that we don't spend nearly enough, is there Army, which is approximately 10 times the size of our own, really going to be well equipped?

whf
 
#12
Dread said:
Sergei,

Would you want a country that had previously held you to ransom over gas supplies in the middle of winter to be the same people to renew those very gas pipelines?

When I'm in Kiev (about once a month on business), the only language I hear is Russian, so scare stories about Russian being pushed down (like Welsh used to be) are absolute tosh.

Russia is a political bully, which is a reflection of the Russian psyche. Ukraine has had a belly full of this, and is seeking new friends. In fairness to Russia, Ukraine has not been good at paying its bills (rather hard when the price of steel collapses and your economy shrinks by more than 20%). However Ukraine knows that accepting Russian money is like accepting protection from the mafia: the demands get worse every year until they take over the business.

The level of corruption in Ukraine is worse the further east you go: thanks to the Russian influence. The EU and USA of course want Ukraine on their "side" and are playing nice to Ukraine. Russia would do well to emulate this and treat their neighbours nicely and keep them onside, rather than forcing their neighbours to look elsewhere thanks to poor behaviour on the part of Russia.

Just my biased little view.
It is not biased one. I agree with many your points. Now Moscow tries hard to strengthen its influence in Ukraine using all means at her disposal. Recently Russia's Patriarch visited Ukraine (all its parts) and called for the unity of Orthodox Christians.

Pres.Yushchenko tried (and failed) to block his arrival to the city of Rovno in Western Ukraine.
 
#13
Its strange how - given its virtually impossible for a foreigner of any nationality to obtain Russian resident status - Moscow is full of Ossetians, Georgians, Ukrainians and others bearing brand-new Russian passports.....
 
#14
wehappyfew said:
Oil_Slick said:
If Russia decides it want the Crimea and the DonBass they will get them, and there isn't a damn thing the Ukrainian army could do if the Moscow Military District came over the border mob handed and bugger all we could do either. A simple look at the ORBAT shows you the reality on the ground.
Em, I don't think that anyone more than about 50km from the Russian border is in much danger from the might of the Moscow Military District. Also, I wouldn't put too much credence into their orbat wiring diagrams. Given that they spend far, far less on Defence than we do, and we know that we don't spend nearly enough, is there Army, which is approximately 10 times the size of our own, really going to be well equipped?

whf

Much of their spending goes on keeping the Moscow and Leningrad Military Districts up to snuff. They would tear the Ukraine a new ******** if they came over the border.

Ukraine defence budget barely covers the cost of wages, even their own minister admits their armed forces are in deep decline with much equipment no longer combat worthy and their navy is all but defunct now. Add in a largely pro Russian majority in the areas of interest and a war with Russia would be short, sharp and rather painful for Ukraine.
 
#15
Oil_Slick said:
wehappyfew said:
Oil_Slick said:
If Russia decides it want the Crimea and the DonBass they will get them, and there isn't a damn thing the Ukrainian army could do if the Moscow Military District came over the border mob handed and bugger all we could do either. A simple look at the ORBAT shows you the reality on the ground.
Em, I don't think that anyone more than about 50km from the Russian border is in much danger from the might of the Moscow Military District. Also, I wouldn't put too much credence into their orbat wiring diagrams. Given that they spend far, far less on Defence than we do, and we know that we don't spend nearly enough, is there Army, which is approximately 10 times the size of our own, really going to be well equipped?

whf

Much of their spending goes on keeping the Moscow and Leningrad Military Districts up to snuff. They would tear the Ukraine a new * if they came over the border.

Ukraine defence budget barely covers the cost of wages, even their own minister admits their armed forces are in deep decline with much equipment no longer combat worthy and their navy is all but defunct now.
Indeed. I have no doubt that the Moscow District could comfortably take on Ukraine, my point was that I am not equally convinced that we (the UK) should be quaking in our boots about them. I wouldn't put money on us if we were invading Russia but equally I wouldn't bet on them seeing off too many countries in an away fixture beyond their own immediate borders.

whf
 
#16
wehappyfew said:
Indeed. I have no doubt that the Moscow District could comfortably take on Ukraine, my point was that I am not equally convinced that we (the UK) should be quaking in our boots about them. I wouldn't put money on us if we were invading Russia but equally I wouldn't bet on them seeing off too many countries in an away fixture beyond their own immediate borders.

whf

And there you have it, Moscow has balanced it's forces for what it sees as it's immediate military goals. keeping it's immidiate former satellites well behaved. They don't have, or really need an out of area expeditionary capability.
 
#17
KGB_resident said:
The West has to react.
Why?

Best thing for the EU and the US is to stand back and let the two of you squabble amongst yourselves.

Doubt they'll be able to mind you! :x


PS. Why has the Russian gas that Serbia contracted for delivery this summer not arrived?
 
#18
.[/quote]

Egypt? Ukrainian capital Kiev is a Russian speaking city along with most of other big cities. For about a half of Ukrainian population Russian is native language. It is a matter of human rights.

.[/quote]


Absolutely. I couldn't agree more. A bit of quid pro quo is in order then (if the basis of the article is true).

http://www.day.kiev.ua/277644/

Met a native of Kyiv a couple of weekends ago. His parents were from Poltava and were Ukrainian speakers, but when they moved to Kyiv pre-war they stopped speaking Ukrainian in public since they were sworn at by a militia man for doing so.

But isn't Russia's latest statements just an attempt to pressure Yuschenko prior to the next elections? The idiot Yanukovich is ahead in the polls at the moment so he can only benefit further from any discomfert Yuschenko is feeling.
 
#19
whitecity said:
KGB_resident said:
The West has to react.
Why?
Whitecity, by the West I mean Washington. Our American friends position US as a global power with interests in each corner of the World. Ukraine is a big and strategically important country. Passiveness of Washington would be regarded as a weakness. So the West have to react.

whitecity said:
Best thing for the EU and the US is to stand back and let the two of you squabble amongst yourselves.
I agree, it would be the best decision. Soon we will see.

whitecity said:
PS. Why has the Russian gas that Serbia contracted for delivery this summer not arrived?
I haven't any idea. Have the Serbs asked about it Gazprom?
 
#20
KGB_resident said:
The West has to react. But how?

They'll huff and puff a lot, call back some Ambassadors, send some sternly worded diplomatic notes, maybe even refuse to invite the odd Ambassador round for tea and biscuits, but…

Just like with Georgia, the Europeans will suddenly remember that winter is coming and GAZPROM keeps them warm at night.
 

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