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Russia and European defence

#1
Is it likely a resurgent Russia will bring about much change in European defence? More troops in Germany and such like.

And where would the leave the CFE treaty?
 
#2
Theres no such thing as European Defence, its the US, UK and possibly the Dutch, the rest are just along for the ride as recent troubles have shown.

I think NATO is on its way out and there will be a new Alliance consisting of those that do and the rest will go hang.
 
#3
More troops in Poland/Romania I'd think! We don't need to get involved with this Georgian nonsense, just be aware the Russians are definitely not our friends in the long run. We SHOULD begin a Europe wide rebuilding of defence capabilities, but what we'll do is p1ss away any power-sustaining economic surplus on benefits and propping up failing banks until its too late, whilst our european neighbours do the same and the Yanks bark and jump up and down on the sidelines. Ultimately, Putin is simply a vastly more clever and ruthless leader then our political caste is capable of producing any more...
 
#4
I wonder if British troops will be pushed further east within Europe.

Seems unlikely right now, but with things as they are who knows.
 
#5
Mr_Deputy said:
Ord_Sgt said:
Theres no such thing as European Defence, its the US, UK and possibly the Dutch, the rest are just along for the ride as recent troubles have shown.

I think NATO is on its way out and there will be a new Alliance consisting of those that do and the rest will go hang.
You think this will happen or you wish it would happen?
Somethings got to change, there are too many countries in NATO hiding behind the skirts of the few that will step up when required.
 
#6
Mr_Deputy said:
Ord_Sgt said:
Mr_Deputy said:
Ord_Sgt said:
Theres no such thing as European Defence, its the US, UK and possibly the Dutch, the rest are just along for the ride as recent troubles have shown.

I think NATO is on its way out and there will be a new Alliance consisting of those that do and the rest will go hang.
You think this will happen or you wish it would happen?
Somethings got to change, there are too many countries in NATO hiding behind the skirts of the few that will step up when required.
and they prosper. they vote in their own interests and the gravy train rolls around again. and repeat.
As per my thread on this subject - do you suggest we break away from the EU? *

(*an act which is psoobily highly illegal to do now under EU law! Although as you say - who the hell would inforce it??! )
You're right the gravy train goes around and around.

The problem is there has been no direct threat to the stability and safety of Europeans for nigh on 20 years, the cold war is long forgotten by most. Politicians now spend more time looking out for themselves instead of whats right for everyone. A resurgent Russia might be the wake up call that is needed, focus a few minds.

I'm a big fan of the EU but its no longer about the people but has become a power grab for unelected politicians. They don't seem to grasp that the people don't want it to run everything but they still blunder on regardless.
 
#7
Thus 'Ord_Sgt' it seems we still act in a cold war manner while living in a new age of nations, also seem to be working hard at noncing things up primo too.
 
#8
Ord_Sgt said:
Mr_Deputy said:
Ord_Sgt said:
Mr_Deputy said:
Ord_Sgt said:
Theres no such thing as European Defence, its the US, UK and possibly the Dutch, the rest are just along for the ride as recent troubles have shown.

I think NATO is on its way out and there will be a new Alliance consisting of those that do and the rest will go hang.
You think this will happen or you wish it would happen?
Somethings got to change, there are too many countries in NATO hiding behind the skirts of the few that will step up when required.
and they prosper. they vote in their own interests and the gravy train rolls around again. and repeat.
As per my thread on this subject - do you suggest we break away from the EU? *

(*an act which is psoobily highly illegal to do now under EU law! Although as you say - who the hell would inforce it??! )
You're right the gravy train goes around and around.

The problem is there has been no direct threat to the stability and safety of Europeans for nigh on 20 years, the cold war is long forgotten by most.
One option may be it becomes time to put Ukraine into play as a NATO member. Perhaps a little mischief in Belorus as well.

Of course Russia may put pressure on with oil and natural gas but if it may need to know that hard ball is a two way street. I don't know if we've gotten to that point yet.

NOTE: That gif in your sig is pretty friggin' disturbing.
 
#9
halo_jones said:
Thus 'Ord_Sgt' it seems we still act in a cold war manner while living in a new age of nations, also seem to be working hard at noncing things up primo too.
The thing about a 'new age of nations' is a bit like the dot com bubble, it will burst as it always does. Or are you suggesting somehow human nature has had some kind of cosmic makeover in the last 19 years? History repeats itself over and over and over again, why do you somehow think now that things will be any different, the triumph of hope over experience, a bit like second marriages really :wink:
 
#10
Well, its only us mugs in the West who ever believed in some starry-eyed 'new age of nations' thing in the first place-the rest of the World didn't get carried away with post-Cold War 'democratic triumphalism' and remembered that the world's history is determined by economic and military power excercised ruthlessly in ones own interests, which is why we get out manouevered and mugged off so often...We need to stop thinking about this in 'Is it justified?' terms, when we should be thinking 'Is it in our interests?'
 
#11
Mr_Deputy said:
roar said:
I wonder if British troops will be pushed further east within Europe.

Seems unlikely right now, but with things as they are who knows.
history has a habit of repeating itself.
Remember this? I hope it was just an isolated incident but it did 'smack' of old rivalries.

Russian Troops Race to Pristina.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/htmlContent.jhtml?html=/archive/1999/06/12/wkos12.html
Old scores? Oh yes.

For example the The Georgian-Ossetian conflict of 1918-1920. Or the second round in 1991. So always been a bit narky but started to get more personal when a couple of years ago the South Ossetians took a few pot shots at a Georgian helo. Just happened to be carrying the Georgian Defense Minister and their Deputy Chief of Staff.

As for the Georgian-Abkhaz aggro, anybody remember the Kamani and Sukhumi Massacres plus the general ethic cleansing back in 1992? Been rumbling on for years.

So, maybe the Russian have finally had enough of all this crap on their borders and decided to sort it out bigtime.

Cue a bit of UN and EU hand wringing, US making pointless noises, Boxheads wibbling away (translation: please Mr Putin, keep the oil & gas we depend on flowing, we do not really give a stuff about anything else).

The Georgians may have now engaged reverse but many doubt Putin will.
 
#12
Well I expect 1st off the Poles will stop cocking around and agree to host the US ABM base pronto. Most important thing for any nation stuck between Russia and Germany would be to give the US an interest in your security. Bulgaria and Rumania already host US bases.

This is Russia's strategic reaction to the West backing Kosovo's independence. Depends how far they'll want to push it but if I was a Balt or Uklranian right now, I'd be pretty nervous.

The Bear has stopped hibernating...
 
#13
AndyPipkin said:
Well I expect 1st off the Poles will stop cocking around and agree to host the US ABM base pronto. Most important thing for any nation stuck between Russia and Germany would be to give the US an interest in your security. Bulgaria and Rumania already host US bases.

This is Russia's strategic reaction to the West backing Kosovo's independence. Depends how far they'll want to push it but if I was a Balt or Uklranian right now, I'd be pretty nervous.

The Bear has stopped hibernating...
Like it helped Georgia?
 
#15
halo_jones said:
More the new age of nations and not learning from experience.
Whats the lesson you are suggesting has not been learnt?
 
#17
Blogg said:
Ord_Sgt said:
halo_jones said:
More the new age of nations and not learning from experience.
Whats the lesson you are suggesting has not been learnt?
Here are a few, but No. 1 seems a good place to start

Early lessons from S Ossetia conflict

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7553390.stm

1. Do not punch a bear on the nose unless it is tied down.
Oh I agree with that one but I think Halo is suggesting something else, that somehow things today are different than in the past but I'm suggesting they are not.
 
#18
whitecity

Georgia is not in between Germany and Russia. A look at an atlas will confirm.

The US does not have any military installations in Georgia (that we know of). If it did, maybe the Russians would have thought twice before invading.
 
#19
Ord_Sgt said:
Blogg said:
Ord_Sgt said:
halo_jones said:
More the new age of nations and not learning from experience.
Whats the lesson you are suggesting has not been learnt?
Here are a few, but No. 1 seems a good place to start

Early lessons from S Ossetia conflict

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7553390.stm

1. Do not punch a bear on the nose unless it is tied down.
Oh I agree with that one but I think Halo is suggesting something else, that somehow things today are different than in the past but I'm suggesting they are not.
no i am agree that your right, i am just failing to make my comments clear i suspect.

last time then it s going to be the norty corner for me...

I believe that most systems regimes empires and the like do rise and fall in a repetitive way, and similarly we are some times doomed to repeat simple mistakes within these changes, not so much because humans are stupid*, but rather we react to such changes far to slowly and influenced more by rhetoric than reason.

I hope that makes more sense and as with everything i punt out on ARRSE is just my opinion 8O.





*something we patently can be but that is for a more Darwin 's greatest hits orientated thread.
 
#20
Thanks for the clarification, we do agree it seems. The current general European peace is un-precedented and probably not going to last much longer. I'm not sure where the spark is going to come from but if history tells us anything it will come from the least expected direction.

It's a good job we have a well financed and manned military to protect us from harm. Errrmm.
 

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